As reported by The Australian, the final Newspoll for the year records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 36%, Labor 38% (steady), Greens 10% (down one) and One Nation 3% (up one). Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 44% approval and 52% disapproval, while Anthony Albanese are respectively up two to 39% and down three to 45%. The report says Morrison is down one on preferred prime minister to 45% and Albanese is down two to 36%. The poll also finds 47% expect Labor to win the election compared with 37% for the Coalition. It was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1518.
I think that’s right beguiled.
Pretty much 90% of seats are locked in because of the degree of polarisation in the electorate. It’s hard to see seats like Reid, Lindsay, Banks switching at the next election AND the WA seats might turn out to be a mirage again.
Clearly Scomo is on the nose, and nobody’s particularly excited by Albo (given the net sat scores).
It probably turns on things like the advertising, retirements, Warringah and some dumb thing said by somebody in week 2 of the proper campaign.
C@tmomma:
“I sincerely hope, for the sake of our fragile democracy, that the aforementioned journalists and Peter Costello, ignore him.”…
They will, but only if there is an internal Civil War in the Liberal party where Costello is siding with the anti-Scomocchio camp and can’t wait to get rid of him, perhaps under the assumption that the combined Murdoch-Costello crossfire will eventually limit the coming Albo ALP government to one term only….
I wish them well for Part-A of the plan…. Part-B will disappoint them… 🙂
For a long while the ABC was simple regurgitating the Australian, a paper that has long fallen from it’s former glory. That has clearly stopped. I wonder how much that has to do with Tingle being on the staff. It’s as lot easier to break stories when you have the good journalists on board.
SilentMajority @ #50 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 11:05 pm
https://armariuminterreta.com/projects/australian-2pp-estimator-2022/
gets 53.4 46.6 from those numbers.
Criticising senior journalists and trying to silence them, or worse, make them right propaganda praising Scott Morrison, will only make them come out harder against him, I would have thought.
I look forward to Niki Savva, Laura Tingle, Sean Kelly and Peter Hartcher’s response this week. 🙂
“Steve777says:
Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 11:27 pm
From primaries of Coalition 36, Labor 38, Green 10, One Nation 3 (leaving “Someone Else” with 13), I get a 2 PP of Labor 0+38+8+1+6 = 53.”
Just pointing to the assumption of 20% of Greens primary voters going to the Libs in their second preferences, which is correct, grounded on the pattern seen in previous elections. This time around, however, I suspect that a big chunk of that 20% will not go to the Liberal party but to the many Independents (most of them with a Moderate Liberal background) who are going to challenge quite a few seats, especially in NSW and some in VIC…. Scomocchio has declared war on the Moderate Liberals and the Moderate Liberals will seek revenge against Scomocchio at the coming election.
Alpo,
My fervent hope is that the election of a federal Labor government will see a shake out of the Liberal and National parties, and maybe even a split and reorganisation along the lines Scott has described, whereupon we end up with two major parties of the Right. The Pro Mining Big Agriculture Socially Conservative Christian Right Party, and a Teal Socially Progressive Capitalist Integrity Party. This would be a good thing because they’d finally come clean about who they are.
I’d question the inclusion of ‘everyday workers’. Wages have been going nowhere for some time.
Another observation I would make is that I hope that the softening up of the electorate to run Gladys Porkajiklian, succeeds. This would then pave the way for Dan Andrews to run federally as well. The Liberals could hardly complain, could they? 🙂
“C@tmommasays:
Monday, December 6, 2021 at 8:03 am
Criticising senior journalists ….”
I am pretty sure that at least Nikki and Laura are going to go hard against Scomocchio. I wouldn’t like to be on the path of Nikki’s hatred … and as for Laura, Albo has already told that the ABC will be treated very differently under the ALP, including from a financial point of view. So, all the non-Coalition people working there have more than one reason not to genuflect to Scomocchio.
Paul Syvret (former Murdoch journalist)
@PSyvret
Oh please 🙄
If I see another thumbs up stunt photo from Morrison I’ll scream! And I bet I’m not the only one feeling that way.
Confessions @ #83 Monday, December 6th, 2021 – 7:13 am
Which the leader of the opposition, Chris Minns should ask.
UK Cartoons:
BK @ #110 Monday, December 6th, 2021 – 8:22 am
Just another Trumpy copycat move.
”It certainly highlights the propensity to shoot their mouths off about an issue whilst completely ignorant of the facts.”
Some of them might actually believe the bullshit they spout but I suspect that mostly they don’t care about the facts. If they think it works for them they’ll say it.
ABC Breakfast commentator saying that Scott’s pics at Bathurst would win over Albo’s staid speech.
Frankly, the repeats of a plump Morrison trying to squeeze into a racing car were hardly an attractive sight. No need for journos to mock him. He’s doing it to himself.
It’s interesting to look at the recent Morgan, which had a headline 2PP of 55.5-44.5 off ALP and LNP primaries both being 35.5, with respondent-allocated preferences. In contrast, this Newspoll actually has the ALP leading 38-36 on primaries, but the 2PP is only 53-47, based on 2019 preference flows. It shows just how critical assumptions about preferences are in estimating the 2PP from a given set of PVs. If in fact Labor is a bit more appealing to the electorate than in 2019, is it reasonable to think that preference flows might be a bit stronger to Labor than in 2019 as well? If so, 2PPs based on 2019 preferences might be underestimating the Labor 2PP a little, or so I hope!
“Recruit, train and mentor”
To achieve female representation targets
So who is going to volunteer to be recruited, trained and mentored?
And by who?
Would any of the “Voices” candidates return to the Liberal fold subject to recruitment, training and mentoring?
The Liberal Party is elitist, sexist and racist
Paramatta Moderate,
I think all eyes will be on UAP preferences again. If Palmer drops the pretence of criticising both major parties equally and goes after Labor specifically again, then the Coalition will benefit again. However, if he continues to target both parties then it’s a crap shoot.
C@tmomma @ #105 Monday, December 6th, 2021 – 8:09 am
The Power In Government Party & the Power’s Inheretedly Guilty Little Embarrassed Teals Party?
Observer,
Not to mention, once a woman gets elected to federal parliament for the Liberal Party, they are patronised, abused, backgrounded against and bullied.
“WeWantPaulsays:
Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 11:52 pm
Labor and its cultists here, seem to forget that One Nation often peels off a lot of Labor voters, voters Labor has failed so badly they look to Clive and Pauline as a hope for something better, fairer, than being left behind.”
Liberal party propagandists always seem to forget that both PHON and Palmer are important to a Federal Coalition win mainly in Queensland, but this time around not only the ALP have moderated their stance on climate change policies, focusing on both jobs and the environment not just the environment, that will be well received in Queensland (latest opinion poll for the federal election in Qld: Roy Morgan 51.5% ALP), but there will also be a Covid effect, mediated by the stellar performance of the state ALP government, which was the target of attacks by the Federal Coalition government led by Scomocchio. Struggling voters will return to the ALP in Qld and largely abandon the useless little stooges of the LNP: Pauline and Clive.
Voters have been going through an interesting process of De-Moronisation and the result is a much stronger position for the ALP…. as expected.
“Parramatta Moderate says:
Monday, December 6, 2021 at 8:27 am
….If so, 2PPs based on 2019 preferences might be underestimating the Labor 2PP a little, or so I hope!”
As we all know, the 2PP for the ALP has been over-estimated by opinion polls at the last 2 federal elections and on both occasions pollsters have changed their criteria to estimate the 2PP from primary votes (some like Essential have stopped calculating a 2PP altogether). So, it’s not unreasonable to think that right now the 2PP of the ALP may be underestimated, as many voters are likely to feel that enough is enough with this incompetent mob, but their impact may be underestimated by the 2PP corrections grounded on previous elections results.
Your hypothesis will be tested at the coming federal election, of course!….. 🙂
“lizziesays:
Monday, December 6, 2021 at 8:27 am
ABC Breakfast commentator saying that Scott’s pics at Bathurst would win over Albo’s staid speech.”..
So, Scomocchio is desperately trying to squeeze himself inside the car-racing-loving electorate (especially those addicted to oil, smoke, booze and fastfood?), whereas Albo is sending his message urbi et orbi….. I wonder who has got a larger number of listeners!
simon holmes à court
@simonahac
friends visiting the lido cinema in hawthorn last night reported that when a
@JoshFrydenberg
ad came on the screen before the show…
the audience booed.
it’s on in kooyong!
#KooyongVotes
From the Dawn Patrol, this is a very good essay about the state of Modern Conservatism:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/05/tory-right-labour-boris-johnson-face-masks-net-zero-keir-starmer
You can see where Morrison and the Liberals get a lot of their thought processes from.
In my Great-Aunt Mathilde’s nursing home yesterday – it was noticeable how many residents switched off their hearing aids when reportage about Albo’s speech came on.
Victoria has recorded 1,073 new COVID-19 cases and six deaths
There are now 16,503 active cases of the virus in Victoria, and 560 people have died during the current Delta outbreak.
There are 310 people in hospital with COVID-19, of whom 45 are in intensive care and 19 are on a ventilator.
The health department said a further 45 people were in intensive care but their infections were no longer considered active.
The new cases were detected from 56,337 test results received yesterday.
There were 1,513 doses of vaccine administered at state-run sites yesterday, as well as more vaccinations at GP clinics and other venues.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-06/victoria-records-new-covid-cases-and-deaths/100676146
BKsays:
Monday, December 6, 2021 at 8:22 am
If I see another thumbs up stunt photo from Morrison I’ll scream! And I bet I’m not the only one feeling that way.
—————————-
I thought the photo from yesterdays Mt Panorama stunt was vert symbolic. Morrison as usual in the passenger seat with someone else driving.
How rooted ? Fox News demonstrated that yesterday…………..for the millionth time. They had a piece on that shooting . The emphasis was on the importance of training and practise of school children on what to do in mass shooting. Just the normal school activity eh ? No talk of how fucked it it that they have society where prepping for mass murder is school life ‘normal’. They also told about the importance of “see something say something’ and how slack the school and parents were for not acting earlier. Obviously ‘normal’ US schools and parents should always have at the front of their mind the question “Is my kid about to go on a gun rampage ? “. How fucked is that !
All Scott wants is a headline and a photo opportunity. No reading required.
Blizzard warning in Hawaii, record high temperatures across continental US
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/04/extreme-weather-us-record-temperatures-la-nina
rhwombat
AKA the Noblesse Oblige Party ?
I’m noticing the mainstream media positioning the government as the underdogs. Get ready for the media sponsored (Murdoch, Channel 9 etc) scare campaign about an incoming Labor government.
Morrison copping a bit of flak from journos cos he lies all the time?
Instead of stopping with the lying he attacks the journos and whinges to their bosses.
Bullies can be such sooky bubs.
Peter Stanton @ #130 Monday, December 6th, 2021 – 9:03 am
Or as Scotty likes to say ‘this is my driver and I’m ambitious for him..’
porotisays: Monday, December 6, 2021 at 9:12 am
A US congressman has posted a Christmas picture of himself and what appears to be his family, smiling and posing with an assortment of guns, just days after four teenagers were killed in a shooting at a high school in Michigan. Is America rooted or what?
****************************************
Charlie Sykes stuns MSNBC host with lewd description of Thomas Massie’s gun photo as like pic of his privates
Speaking to MSNBC on Sunday, conservative commentator and Bulwark editor attacked Rep. Tom Massie (R-KY) after he posted a Christmas photo of him with his family in their pajamas with a bunch of guns.
In describing the photo, Sykes called it nothing more than a “d*ck pic,” photos that men send unsolicited to women of their penis to show off their masculinity. Sykes explained that Massie’s need to show off how big his gun is.
“Frankly, I’m sorry to be offensive, but that’s the equivalent of a dIck pic,” said Sykes. Host Lindsey Reiser noted she wasn’t sure they could say that on television.
Reiser came back after the panel discussion and apologized to “families” who may have been watching and heard Sykes refer to Massie’s guns the way he did. The stand-in-host, didn’t make it clear whether she finds the gun photo more objectionable than the use of the word “d*ck pic.”
https://www.rawstory.com/massie-machine-gun-christmas-dck-pic/
Lisel von Trapp
“In my Great-Aunt Mathilde’s nursing home yesterday – it was noticeable how many residents switched off their hearing aids when reportage about Albo’s speech came on.”
Say hi to your Great-Aunt Mathilde for me. In which part of your frontal lobe is she residing today?
lizzie @ #115 Monday, December 6th, 2021 – 8:27 am
Certainly that’s how voters like us see it, Lizzie.
”
The SMH editorial says that Albanese must make compelling case for change to oust Morrison.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-must-make-compelling-case-for-change-to-oust-morrison-20211205-p59ezx.html
”
Unbelievable. What more compelling case should be made. There are rorts, there is corruption, there is sexual harrassment and there are sexual Piccadillies, there is economy with huge debt and deficit when compared to last time ALP was in power, there is disunity, there is indiscipline, there is botched rollout of vaccines and there is a climate action plan, which is not a plan. There is a Coalition leader who can’t help himself when it comes to lying.
There is credible Climate action plan from ALP, there is plan to skill people instead of importing them from overseas
C@t,
UAP will have a major loss of credibility amongst their target demographic if they advocate preferences for either party.
When RDA aligned with UAP Kelly made a statement that was included with Monica Smit’s post:
Elsewhere Kelly has commented that both Labor and Liberal are corrupted by their factions and big business donations.
Kelly was quick to deny any suggestion of a preference deal with Liberals at the weekend rally because I’m sure he understands the impact a deal would have.
Whether Palmer cares about the electoral success of UAP is another matter entirely.
rhombat@8.31 am
Would that PIGS and PIGLETS might fly
It’s great that some posters are allowing themselves the luxury of imagining an incoming Albanese Labor government but take it from me, just don’t go overboard. Don’t completely block out that other little voice.
Trust me, you won’t regret it come election night.
As you were.
”
The Australian reports that Morrison has told the head of Nine that he is unhappy with the way he is being treated by several of its journalists. Sean Kelly, a former adviser to Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, Peter Hartcher, the SMH and Age political and international editor, AFR columnist Laura Tingle, and Nine papers’ Thursday political columnist, Niki Savva were named. How precious!
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/laurie-oakes-goes-to-work-for-the-abc/news-story/8146d6228
”
This is what happens when you are doing your job. Intimidation. It is as if LNP expects all media to “Hail the King” and “Long live the King” all the time.
Why is Smoko engaging in this phony election campaign if he is not going to the polls until May? Seems ridiculous to me.
”
A surge in tax revenue from everyday workers, companies and superannuation funds plus lower-than-expected unemployment levels are helping the federal budget recover from the fiscal fallout of the COVID-19 recession. But Shane Wright reports that new figures from the Finance Department also show the budget is still on track for one of the largest deficits on record, leaving which ever party wins next year’s federal election tough decisions on how to repair the economy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tax-revenue-surge-improves-budget-bottom-line-but-big-deficit-awaits-20211205-p59ewv.html
”
IMO, The “repairing the budget” euphemism to cut services to the needy is done and dusted after this Pandemic. The economic rules are rewritten forever. All governments in the world need to formalate a new way forward for their economies. The old model doesn’t work anymore.
Maynard Keynes came up with a new model after the Pandemic and Great Depression last time around. Something like that needs to be done now.
If you notice USA, there do not care about Debt and deficit anymore. They are targeting their budget for needy and infrastructure without any concerns for budget Debt and deficit.
Just saw scomo on ABC TV smiling at parents, talking to small children, picking one up for a hug…just a photo op to sell the idea his Government care about vaxxing 5-9 year olds…. Using children for his fake campaign..
I think I’m going to throw up. Creepy man.