A woman’s place

More on Pearce preselection prospects, another parliamentary retirement announcement, and a poll suggesting WA voters favour Tanya Plibersek over Anthony Albanese.

After an eventful conclusion to the year’s parliamentary sittings, more retirement announcements and preselection news, plus an opinion poll of sorts.

• The Financial Review reports there are two leading candidates to replace Christian Porter as the Liberal candidate in Pearce: Libby Lyons, former director of the Australian Government’s Workplace Gender Equality Agency (and granddaughter of Joseph and Enid Lyons), and Nicole Robbins, a Melville councillor and high school teacher. No mention is made of Miquela Riley and Alyssa Hayden, who featured in a report in The West Australian on Thursday. Michael Read of the Financial Review reports former state Hillarys MP Peter Katsambanis has indicated he would have been a contender had not the state government’s “heavy-handed” border restrictions left him stranded in Melbourne, but he would have had to contend with the party leadership’s clear preference that a woman be selected to succeed Porter.

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports Christian Porter’s decision to jump ship was influenced by internal polling for his seat that was, according to a source familiar with the matter, “not good”. However, the remainder of the report emphasises Labor’s hard path to a majority: the Coalition “claim they will hold Bass and Braddon in Tasmania”, “feels comfortable in all-important Queensland but may lose at least one seat”, and “believe they can win Lyons in Tasmania and, if Andrew Constance is preselected, Gilmore in southern NSW”. Elsewhere in the Financial Review, Michael Read of the Financial Review reports both parties expect Labor to win the Melbourne seat of Chisholm from Gladys Liu.

• Damian Drum, who has held the rural Victorian seat of Nicholls (known before 2019 as Murray) for the Nationals since 2016, has announced he will not contest the election. Rob Harris of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals now hope to recover the seat, which Drum won upon the retirement of Liberal member Sharman Stone. Anticipated Nationals preselection candidates are Sam Birrell, former chief executive of the Committee for Shepparton; Michael Dobbie, former paralympian and staffer to Liberal MP Jane Prentice and Nationals MP Darren Chester; and Amanda McClaren, former Strathbogie Shire mayor. The only Liberal mentioned is Stephen Brooks, a “Cobram school teacher, irrigator and former international commodities trader”. Rob Priestly, Greater Shepparton deputy mayor and co-owner of an industrial laundry firm in Shepparton, recently announced he would run as an independent.

• The Katina Curtis of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals have pushed back the closure of nominations for the Warringah preselection to January 14, in the hope that Gladys Berejiklian might yet agree to run, and also in Parramatta, where the Liberals are hoping the retirement of sitting member Julie Owens will help them knock over the 3.5% Labor margin. State Parramatta MP Geoff Lee has thus far resisted entreaties to run, which have displeased Dominic Perrottet, who would sooner avoid further by-elections.

• The West Australian has a poll by Painted Dog Research in which 801 Western Australian respondents were presented with a four-way preferred prime minister question, putting Scott Morrison at 41%, Tanya Plibersek at 32%, Anthony Albanese at 22% and Peter Dutton at 4%. Plibersek led Morrison by 41% to 36% among women, while Morrison led 47% to 25% among men. When asked who they trusted more out of the Premier and the Prime Minister, Mark McGowan scored 78% and Morrison 22%. Here too there was a significant gender gap, with McGowan’s lead of 71-29 among men comparing with 86-14 among women.

Affairs of state:

• Antony Green notes on Twitter that South Australia’s parliament has adjourned ahead of the election without having corrected the legislative anomaly that means pre-poll votes are not counted on election night, which is now unique to the state. As a result, the election night count will be “quick, over early, but will be very incomplete with no guarantee we will know the outcome until the declaration votes start being counted on the Monday after the election”.

• Yoni Bashan of The Australian reports Bridget Sakr, who has gained prominence as a victims support advocate since her daughter and three of her cousins were killed after in February last year after a ute mounted the kerb, is considering an approach from the New South Wales Liberals to run in the looming Strathfield by-election. The seat is being vacated with the retirement of ousted Labor leader Jodi McKay, who held the seat by 5.0% in 2019.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

937 comments on “A woman’s place”

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  1. Evan:

    If Newspoll is out tonight, my prediction is Labor 54, Coalition 46

    That’s my tip too, with Scomo and Albo near equal on PPM.

    Were it any other time of the year, I’d honestly expect an even better result for Labor, but the holiday season has probably blunted the impact of what has been a nightmarish period for the Government.

  3. Boerwar, I heard either a long interview or several with Peter Cundall many years ago on the ABC. (Where else??) Fascinating man but I don’t recall detail. The recordings are probably available somewhere.

    He was actually a British Paratrooper in WW2 but was too young to join early in the war so didn’t see much action and was locked up as a POW when he followed a pretty girl across a border instead of concentrating on being a frontier guard. From memory he was tricked (his words) into joining the Australian Army. They were looking for an official photographer and because he once took a photo with a box brownie he applied and was accepted. However, once in Korea he ended up on the front line like everyone else. Again from a fading memory, he described that experience as horrific. It would worth listening to if still available.

  6. Granny Anny
    “was locked up as a POW when he followed a pretty girl across a border instead of concentrating on being a frontier guard”

    There was something mysterious about the girl, IIRC. Did she disappear soon after? Was she an agent (honey trap?) working for Tito’s Partisans? Or was Cundall arrested and locked up just for being in the wrong place at the wrong time?

  7. Cheers, Don Key. I greatly admired Peter Cundall. Left school at 13, grew up in poverty, and read a book a day. Self educated.

  9. Julian really cuts through.
    @cameronwilson
    Didn’t realise Labor MP Julian Hill has 120k followers on TikTok Eyes biggest auspol account by far?

  10. BK
    Hope all is/has gone well with the Beijing returnees.
    ______
    Bennelong Lurker
    Yes, they are all OK. They had to stop their journey in Sydney, hire a van, spend 1.5 hours in the queue for drive-through covid testing and then drive though hailstorms to Canberra. They will isolate in their house for three days and then get tested again on day 6 (I think).
    The big question will be whether or not they can drive to Victoria to see my son’s in-laws and then get into SA to spend a week with us for big family Christmas celebrations.

  12. “Labor rules out a coalition with the Greens…”

    Good. An Alp Govt will do what they always do, and work with whatever parliament the people elect and do the actual policy and governance thing. Julia Gillard did that well. The Coalition actually seems offended whenever anyone not of their ilk has any influence at all and most definitely does NOT do the policy and governance thing, and when they appear to be its usually to protect or benefit themselves and their donors. We know that on actual evidence.

    And on Climate…..nothing will change if the Coalition dominate the executive. They have said so FFS. Only way ahead for the actual good of the country is an ALP Govt with the numbers to make a difference. Start from there and there is some hope.

  13. Being Bathurst born and bred, I spent many a summer with friends tooling around Mt Panorama on our pushbikes. Would take 3 hours to get to the top, and 20 minute to fang down to the bottom.

    We avoided the place when the hoons came for the car races. Scomo is a fake hoon.

  14. Peter Cundall said he loved gardening on his property in the nude. He found it liberating.
    That is, until public interest in Peter grew & tourists parked out front hoping to get a glimpse.
    He was a passionate, wonderful human being who understood the value of the environment & community.
    RIP

  15. This is terrible news about senator Samantha Mcmahon.

    The poor woman drank too much, and decided to let her National Party colleagues what she honestly thought about them and the Party.

    AND SHE MISSED WITH EVERY PUNCH!!

  16. Kakaru, I don’t rember the details but he was still in the army and in uniform. Perhaps he wasn’t sure whether or not it was a honey trap but I think she certainly encouraged him to follow her.

  17. D @ #863 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 6:53 pm

    Peter Cundall said he loved gardening on his property in the nude. He found it liberating.
    That is, until public interest in Peter grew & tourists parked out front hoping to get a glimpse.
    He was a passionate, wonderful human being who understood the value of the environment & community.
    RIP

    Well said!

  18. From 9 Entertainment

    The government will seek to tie Labor’s support to the Greens.

    As always.

    And, to date, a successful strategy.

    As we see on here, the Greens are toxic to Labor’s prospects hence the tactic – 6 months our from an election.

  19. Granny Anny
    The aftermath for Cundall…………
    .
    .
    ……. I was marched in before the court-martial and they were all sitting there at the table, all the officers. And I was marched in: ‘left-right, left-right; halt!’ And the officer in charge, a man with a huge moustache, said, ‘You realise, of course, that you’re an absolutely wretched man, don’t you?’ I said, ‘Yes, sir.’…’Shut up!’ said the sergeant major. ‘Have you anything to say?’ he said, ‘You’ve been away for six months, absent without leave, a deserter. Have you any excuse?’ I said, ‘Well’…’Shut up!’ said the sergeant major. He said, ‘Well we have no choice, of course, but to sentence you…mumble, mumble, mumble.’

    And suddenly the sergeant major stepped forward……..

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/wisdom-interviews-peter-cundall/3420882#:~:text=with%20you%2C%20lad.%27-,Anyway,-%2C%20on%20the%20time

  20. Sky News host Peta Credlin has issued a lengthy on-air apology to Victoria’s South Sudanese community after anger about a program in which she falsely blamed them for a Melbourne COVID-19 outbreak last year.

    The former government advisor issued the four-minute apology last Friday night, describing her previous comments as “factually wrong,” error-strewn and apologising for the hurt and offence she caused.

    It’s the second time Credlin has apologised to the Victoria’s South Sudanese community since she made the comments last year.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/peta-credlin-issues-second-apology-to-south-sudanese-community-20211205-p59eys.html

    Like in the US, Rupert’s media outlets are clearly a source of Covid misinformation.

  24. Peter Cundall speaking to Peter Thompson on Radio National ABC, Sunday morning, 1 August, 2004.

    “To the people who are, most of them, decent, ordinary people-but there’s also that group, tiny minority: the control freaks, if you like, we get them in every office; we get them in every school parents and friends organisation; and they are relentless. They take leadership and they lead people into trouble. They are often highly-skilled speakers, they’re very persuasive people, and we find them today everywhere. You see them just everywhere. And this is what I’m starting to realise. I call them the psychopathic narcissists, that you seem to get, and seem to be taking control. And you see them in this world we’re in now…everywhere.

  26. Sad to learn today of the death Peter Cundall; watched his gardening shows almost religiously but until this morning I’ve never planted anything. My
    brunfelsia pauciflora are in memory of him – fare-thee-well, codger.

  27. Fs,

    Went to the floods at Forde directly after.

    Fine as far as that goes. But went with the old I’m hear to listen and see.

    Endearing empathy fail!

  31. BK

    Fingers crossed. The COVID testing requirements (an hour and a half in drive through) after a long international flight seems to suggest that NSW Health/Federal Govt could make that requirement a little more easily accessible particularly in light of Beguildagain’s description yesterday of his arrival. But they are here! Enjoy, even if still from a distance.

  32. Thanks Granny Anny. There was apparently some link between Cundall following the girl, and him ending up as a POW on Yugoslav soil… but I don’t know the details. Maybe no one does. It was a confusing time.

  33. rhwombat at 7:30 pm

    I recall the man & the interview, but the transcript is wonderful.

    It is indeed. I don’t usually like reading transcripts of a conversation but once I started that one I could not stop.

  36. So Morrison’s calling for less governmental interference in peoples’ lives. What a wanker! This superficial, clown of a man is attempting to garner the vote of the anti-vaxxer, where the overwhelming majority have done the right thing. I look forward more to his concession speech than I did Fraser’s, who was so shocked that he was rejected, he became almost lachrymose:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkzh36gO3C0

    Labor by ten seats!

  37. I just read the transcript. Sounds like the Yugoslav story was simple enough… Cundall just fell into the hands of paranoid Partisans. It was the beginning of the Cold War, after all. The story about washing his face in ‘coffee’ was hilarious. 😀

  38. I just watched the 60 Minutes report on QAnon and its followers in Australia. It was an eye opener. The report showed an example of how one particular catchphrase of Donald Trump’s was manipulated to become a prediction that he would say it at a certain time, in a certain place, and that that would signify something yada, yada, yada. Which Trump said, but not because he was giving a shout out to QAnon followers but just because it was a thing he said often anyway. However, the QAnon followers are so deep inside this cult that all they see and hear is what is fed to them and all they believe is what they are told to believe by Q.

    It is created to be so all-consuming that you do not have the time to do the actual research outside the box that Q has boxed you into in order to deconstruct QAnon.

    One former follower stated quite seriously that QAnon has the potential to cause the sort of transnational havoc and destruction that other terrorist organisations do. And he pointed out that its numbers are only getting bigger every day.

    So if Scott Morrison wants to grab the QAnon tiger by the tail then he better beware that it might turn on him and attack him, as much or moreso than he thinks it may be used to attack his political opponents.

    Because one of the QAnon memes in the 60 Minutes report, was about him. And not in a good way.

  39. Mavis says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 7:54 pm
    So Morrison’s calling for less governmental interference in peoples’ lives. What a wanker! This superficial, clown of a man is attempting to garner the vote of the anti-vaxxer, where the overwhelming majority have done the right thing. I look forward more to his concession speech than I did Fraser’s, who was so shocked that he was rejected, he became almost lachrymose:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkzh36gO3C0

    Labor by ten seats!
    _____________________________
    A bold prediction mavis!

  40. Lizzie @ #786 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 7:40 pm

    I thought it was a good move that Albo spoke from Western Sydney today.

    Ashfield is Inner West. Well, more like Medium West. It’s where I grew up and went to school from kindergarten to Year 6. It used to be considered suburbia but now it’s been rebranded as Inner West as the rest of the Western Suburbs have expanded further west. It’s also just a hop, skip and a jump from Marrickville, where Albanese lives. 🙂

  42. Shellbell @ #878 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 7:38 pm

    I have driven down Conrod straight at 50km per hour behind a tourist bus.

    I once did a week’s locum at Bathurst Hospital. They put me up at the Hotel on the track, so I used to run around it each morning. Come Sunday, I was wheezing up the hill and was passed by a hound running hell for leather behind a ute. The ute stopped at the top of the hill for the hound to leap in, turned around and drove down to the start line again – whereupon the hound leapt out and repeated the performance. Dunno how many repeats they got through, but the hound looked like it was enjoying it.

  43. C@t,

    QAnon is a self-protecting meme. The rejection of official sources, media, government as fake or part of the deep state means you can’t argue with facts. So not a matter of having time – QAnon actively rejects as lies what the mainstream believes.

  45. Lars Von Trier:

    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 8:08 pm

    [‘A bold prediction mavis!’]

    I’m standing by it. What’s your prediction? I’m getting the personal vibe that most are over this shyster.

  47. This is shaping up to be the longest campaign ever for a Federal Election if we include the current phoney campaign. No doubt the Prime Marketer will be seen at the Ashes on Wednesday too doing a try-hard little johnny effort. Worst thing is there is a possibility of this going for 6 months.

    Now I love election campaigns but I am in the minority, I remember the 1984 elections with that stupid long campaign that backfired on Hawke as voters tired of the constant carry on. And I think seeing SfM on the box at every event, funeral and envelope opening will piss a lot of people off as he is so irritating.

    The other thing that comes to mind is that this phoney campaign is a good for the “Govnt hand off” message. After all if you are always out in cosplay, construction worker, racing driver, daggy dad, curry chef, swimmer, boolywood dancer, for photos and word salad you are Not doing any actual Governing – or at least thats how it comes across.

    Come to think of it, the 2022 election campaign started in May 2019 with all the staged photos, slogans, branding and empty promises.

  48. So Scotty recons government should get out of our lives, but then he goes and sticks his big smirk on the TV during the Bathurst 1000…
    RIP Holden!

  49. I go with Mavis and add that the prediction was on the cautious side. Rusted ons don’t decide elections, swinging voters do. Morrison and his gang have done more than enough to turn people off. The gullible fell for the bullshit the first time but won’t get sucked in again.

  50. Mavis says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 8:20 pm
    Lars Von Trier:

    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 8:08 pm

    [‘A bold prediction mavis!’]

    I’m standing by it. What’s your prediction? I’m getting the personal vibe that most are over this shyster.
    __________________________
    +/- 2 from status quo

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