A woman’s place

More on Pearce preselection prospects, another parliamentary retirement announcement, and a poll suggesting WA voters favour Tanya Plibersek over Anthony Albanese.

After an eventful conclusion to the year’s parliamentary sittings, more retirement announcements and preselection news, plus an opinion poll of sorts.

• The Financial Review reports there are two leading candidates to replace Christian Porter as the Liberal candidate in Pearce: Libby Lyons, former director of the Australian Government’s Workplace Gender Equality Agency (and granddaughter of Joseph and Enid Lyons), and Nicole Robbins, a Melville councillor and high school teacher. No mention is made of Miquela Riley and Alyssa Hayden, who featured in a report in The West Australian on Thursday. Michael Read of the Financial Review reports former state Hillarys MP Peter Katsambanis has indicated he would have been a contender had not the state government’s “heavy-handed” border restrictions left him stranded in Melbourne, but he would have had to contend with the party leadership’s clear preference that a woman be selected to succeed Porter.

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports Christian Porter’s decision to jump ship was influenced by internal polling for his seat that was, according to a source familiar with the matter, “not good”. However, the remainder of the report emphasises Labor’s hard path to a majority: the Coalition “claim they will hold Bass and Braddon in Tasmania”, “feels comfortable in all-important Queensland but may lose at least one seat”, and “believe they can win Lyons in Tasmania and, if Andrew Constance is preselected, Gilmore in southern NSW”. Elsewhere in the Financial Review, Michael Read of the Financial Review reports both parties expect Labor to win the Melbourne seat of Chisholm from Gladys Liu.

• Damian Drum, who has held the rural Victorian seat of Nicholls (known before 2019 as Murray) for the Nationals since 2016, has announced he will not contest the election. Rob Harris of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals now hope to recover the seat, which Drum won upon the retirement of Liberal member Sharman Stone. Anticipated Nationals preselection candidates are Sam Birrell, former chief executive of the Committee for Shepparton; Michael Dobbie, former paralympian and staffer to Liberal MP Jane Prentice and Nationals MP Darren Chester; and Amanda McClaren, former Strathbogie Shire mayor. The only Liberal mentioned is Stephen Brooks, a “Cobram school teacher, irrigator and former international commodities trader”. Rob Priestly, Greater Shepparton deputy mayor and co-owner of an industrial laundry firm in Shepparton, recently announced he would run as an independent.

• The Katina Curtis of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals have pushed back the closure of nominations for the Warringah preselection to January 14, in the hope that Gladys Berejiklian might yet agree to run, and also in Parramatta, where the Liberals are hoping the retirement of sitting member Julie Owens will help them knock over the 3.5% Labor margin. State Parramatta MP Geoff Lee has thus far resisted entreaties to run, which have displeased Dominic Perrottet, who would sooner avoid further by-elections.

• The West Australian has a poll by Painted Dog Research in which 801 Western Australian respondents were presented with a four-way preferred prime minister question, putting Scott Morrison at 41%, Tanya Plibersek at 32%, Anthony Albanese at 22% and Peter Dutton at 4%. Plibersek led Morrison by 41% to 36% among women, while Morrison led 47% to 25% among men. When asked who they trusted more out of the Premier and the Prime Minister, Mark McGowan scored 78% and Morrison 22%. Here too there was a significant gender gap, with McGowan’s lead of 71-29 among men comparing with 86-14 among women.

Affairs of state:

• Antony Green notes on Twitter that South Australia’s parliament has adjourned ahead of the election without having corrected the legislative anomaly that means pre-poll votes are not counted on election night, which is now unique to the state. As a result, the election night count will be “quick, over early, but will be very incomplete with no guarantee we will know the outcome until the declaration votes start being counted on the Monday after the election”.

• Yoni Bashan of The Australian reports Bridget Sakr, who has gained prominence as a victims support advocate since her daughter and three of her cousins were killed after in February last year after a ute mounted the kerb, is considering an approach from the New South Wales Liberals to run in the looming Strathfield by-election. The seat is being vacated with the retirement of ousted Labor leader Jodi McKay, who held the seat by 5.0% in 2019.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

937 comments on “A woman’s place”

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  4. And I’m sure Latham’s opinions are based entirely on his calm, objective assessment of the various leaders’ strengths and weaknesses

  7. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 4:43 pm
    Perceptive comments about Albo from someone who knows him:

    Embittered spite from a has-been rat.

  10. Anyone who gets a negative character assessment from Mark Latham should take that as a badge of honour at this point. You know you are doing something right!

  11. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 4:43 pm
    Perceptive comments about Albo from someone who knows him:

    And an oleaginous aspersion cast by a commenter with an agenda.

  12. Yes, at least Albanese has had the intestinal fortitude to stick with the Labor Party through good times and bad. Not chuck a hissy fit, throw his toys out of the pram, do a Brittney to his hair, and then go over to the dark side.

  13. There is an opinion article in the Herald Sun by Shannon Deery which says there is a state based Newspoll which says its 52-48 with Dan leading. Labor’s primary vote has tanked 10% to 32% and the Coalition is no good at 28%. All the vote has gone to the minor parties. Can’t find the poll anywhere.

  14. Scott Morrison has no hope. People are back to being nice.

    😀

    Apparently one of Mount Panorama’s albino wallaroos made an appearance earlier in the day (no safety car).

  15. Lars,

    It’s all over for the Libs if you think Latham’s analysis will make any difference at all.

    You think you are being contrarily insightful. But you’re just rattling your pearls.

  17. michael @ #720 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 4:54 pm

    There is an opinion article in the Herald Sun by Shannon Deery which says there is a state based Newspoll which says its 52-48 with Dan leading. Labor’s primary vote has tank 10% to 32% and the Coalition is no good at 28%. All the vote has gone to the minor parties. Can’t find the poll anywhere.

    Clive Palmer paying for polling now?

  20. Jeez, I wouldn’t like to be a taxi driver disputing a fare with Sam McMahon after a night on the town. If Latham once broke a cabbie’s arm, then judging by her countenance, she could do some serious damage. They breed ’em tough in the Territory – especially the shielas.

  24. ‘PaulTu says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 4:59 pm

    Peter Cundall (ex presenter of Gardening Australia) dies aged 94.’
    =========================================
    Good garden show presenter.
    One of Cundall’s claims to fame was that he was arrested by the Yugoslavian communists.

  25. ‘Jaeger says:
    Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 5:03 pm

    Shell’s Prelude LNG vessel shuts operations, staff evacuation underway after electrical fire…’
    =============================
    Essentially a floating bomb.

  26. michael
    “There is an opinion article in the Herald Sun by Shannon Deery which says there is a state based Newspoll which says its 52-48 with Dan leading. Labor’s primary vote has tank 10% to 32% and the Coalition is no good at 28%. All the vote has gone to the minor parties. Can’t find the poll anywhere.”

    Have looked up your own arse?

  27. Peter Cundall originally from Manchester was also a great Tasmanian.

    As well as his garden show / segements he had a strong social concience and often spoke up on issues, always backing the underdog.

    Will be missed.

  28. There is an opinion article in the Herald Sun by Shannon Deery which says there is a state based Newspoll which says its 52-48 with Dan leading. Labor’s primary vote has tanked 10% to 32% and the Coalition is no good at 28%. All the vote has gone to the minor parties. Can’t find the poll anywhere.

    The report is here:
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/opinion-how-all-the-major-parties-ended-up-on-the-nose-with-voters/news-story/627d433ad682daaa46b55512a8778548

    It’s a master class in how not to report an opinion poll: doesn’t say who conducted it (pretty clearly not Newspoll, contrary to the above, because they did a poll about a fortnight ago) or for whom, or provide any information at all on sample size, field work dates or survey method. We are told almost 40% are voting for minor parties/independents or undecided, meaning the assertion that “primary vote support for the major parties is sitting at about 61 per cent” is nonsense.

  31. Boerwar
    “One of Cundall’s claims to fame was that he was arrested by the Yugoslavian communists.”

    Very strange story that. Right after the end of WW2, something about a pretty girl.

    Later in life, although still a very long time ago, I believe he ran as a Senate candidate for the Communist Party (he wasn’t successful).

  39. So that was the rev head vote sewn up today.
    Next, Scomo no doubt will drag out Jenny and the girls for some family friendly events to fix that “woman problem”, get ready for the touchy feely article on Jenny Morrison in the Women’s Weekly.

  40. Scout
    “As well as his garden show / segements he had a strong social concience and often spoke up on issues, always backing the underdog.”

    Here here.

  42. William Bowe @ #827 Sunday, December 5th, 2021 – 5:19 pm

    There is an opinion article in the Herald Sun by Shannon Deery which says there is a state based Newspoll which says its 52-48 with Dan leading. Labor’s primary vote has tanked 10% to 32% and the Coalition is no good at 28%. All the vote has gone to the minor parties. Can’t find the poll anywhere.

    The report is here:
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/opinion-how-all-the-major-parties-ended-up-on-the-nose-with-voters/news-story/627d433ad682daaa46b55512a8778548

    It’s a master class in how not to report an opinion poll: doesn’t say who conducted it (pretty clearly not Newspoll, contrary to the above, because they did a poll about a fortnight ago) or for whom (pretty clearly not for the Herald Sun or they’d be making more of it), or provide any information at all on sample size or field work dates. We are told 40% are voting for minor parties/independents or undecided, meaning the assertion that “primary vote support for the major parties is sitting at about 61 per cent” is nonsense.

    It’s more an ad for Dimattina’s small business (anti-lockdown) party.

    Author Shannon Deery hasn’t even promoted it on his twitter yet and no other Vic press gallery journo’s have mentioned it.

  43. GG – The point is what are your enemies likely to say about you?

    The Liberals haven’t really unveiled the attack line on Albo – but it will surely come.

    The attack advertising on both Latham and Shorten came in the campaign period and where devastating in both cases. Rudd however had a very effective rebuttal where they played the Liberal ad attack and Rudd switched off the TV ad.

    I’d guess the Liberal attack will be some variant of that outlined in the Latham article.

  44. After acknowledging the death of a genuine and popular Peter Cundall, we can turn to the shallow word salad of our fake leader.

    And it was great to be at Bathurst today, it wasn’t the first time I’ve been to Bathurst, it was great to be back at Bathurst, it was great to see everyone there, because that’s what we’ve been working towards.

    That’s what the premier and I particularly have been working towards. We’ve been working towards Australians getting their lives back. What we’re about is getting governments out of your lives, because I think Australians have had a gut full of governments in their lives in the past few years, and they’re looking forward to getting back in the drivers seat, and I want to put Australians back in the drivers seat.

  45. Evan: ‘If Newspoll is out tonight, my prediction is Labor 54, Coalition 46’.
    Probably right. It almost certainly won’t be any closer than that for Morrison, though.

  46. Lars,

    Seriously?

    Your hatred of Labor shines through in every comment you post.

    A pretty miserable life of non achievement and disappointment is all you’ve got.

    You really are a sad sack.

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