Beware the Ides of March (or May)

Odds shorten on a May federal election; Morrison threatens a nuclear option for preselections in New South Wales; plus news on state by-elections, actual or potential.

Yesterday’s tabling of a proposed parliamentary schedule for new year resulted in another spin of the election date speculation wheel, the consensus being that it will be held on either May 7 and 14. The government has, as they say, pencilled in March 29 as the date for the budget, although “sources close to Mr Morrison” tell The Australian he may make use of his eraser if his polling improves over summer, such that March is “still a live option” for the election. That would presumably lead to South Australian Premier Steven Marshall exercising his option to delay the March 19 state election by up to three weeks in the event of a March federal election, a matter Scott Morrison denies having discussed with him.

Other election news, federal and state:

• Scott Morrison told the Liberal federal executive he was considering asking it to exercise powers to override state divisions in preselections to impose his preferred candidates in key New South Wales seats, including state MPs Andrew Constance in Gilmore and Melanie Gibbons in Hughes (Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports state Police Minister David Elliott is resisting entreaties to run in Greenway). Such a move would be “seen as a declaration of war by key members of the NSW state division”, specifically its conservatives and moderates.

Sarah Martin of The Guardian reports Natalie Baini, who until recently was a cultural diversity manager at the Australian Football League, has withdrawn her preselection challenge against Liberal MP Fiona Martin in Reid and will instead run as an independent, complaining the party had failed to act on her complaint against “inappropriate conduct of some senior members of the party and the government”.

Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Labor will yield to the insistence of local party branches and field a candidate in John Barilaro’s seat of Monaro, despite Labor leader Chris Minns rating it an “impossible task”.

John Ferguson of The Australian reported last week on “intense speculation” that a Victorian state by-election could be on the cards in Kew, whose embattled Liberal member, Tim Smith, had been “linked with potential job prospects in Britain, where he once lived”. Sunday Herald Sun columnist “Backroom Baz” rates that Smith will linger until the election if the preselection goes to his ally David Davis, the Shadow Treasurer and Opposition Leader in the Legislative Council, but would be disposed to inflict the by-election on the party if it instead goes to Jess Wilson, a former staffer to Josh Frydenberg and current policy director at the Business Council of Australia. Also in the field are Lucas Moon, former soldier and commercial manager of construction company Winslow, who has been endorsed by Tim Costello; Monica Clark, a family lawyer; Felicity Sinfield, a police officer and Boroondara councillor; and Michael Sabljak, a former electorate officer to federal MP Michael Sukkar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

976 comments on “Beware the Ides of March (or May)”

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  1. ‘zoomster says:
    Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 10:47 am

    ‘We understand some within the First Nations community will be pushing for ‘Voice’ to come first…’

    The ‘some’ referred to here are those who went through an exhaustive consultation process with First Nations people, and came out with a plan very different from the one they were ‘supposed’ t0 (which suggests the consultation was very genuine).

    They have been over ruled by ‘one’ (Thorpe) who walked out on these negotiations when they didn’t go her way.

    The article I posted earlier explains why the change in order matters and why ‘some’ of the indigenous community have been put offside by the Greens’ switch in stance.

    It is extremely worrying when the policy approach of a party appears to be dictated by the views of one individual, particularly an individual who it is clear is out of step with the First Nations community on this.’
    ————————————
    Excellent post.

  2. Oh dear, Scomocchio is declaring nuclear war against his own party offering as a reward a “second miracle”?…. Somebody should tell Scomocchio that the voters won’t appreciate supporting a chaotic rabble at war with itself, when they have the option of voting not just for the ALP and the Greens, but also Independents with a “liberal-Moderate background”….

    Hey, Scomocchio: No sinner can escape the Wrath of God….

  3. What I liked about zoomster’s post was her evident interest and concern for indigenous issues rather than playing any petty Labor vs Greens games.

  4. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 10:47 am
    ‘We understand some within the First Nations community will be pushing for ‘Voice’ to come first…’

    The ‘some’ referred to here are those who went through an exhaustive consultation process with First Nations people, and came out with a plan very different from the one they were ‘supposed’ t0 (which suggests the consultation was very genuine).

    They have been over ruled by ‘one’ (Thorpe) who walked out on these negotiations when they didn’t go her way.

    This is emblematic of the dysfunction that runs through the Junk Left. They’re the Balkans of Australian politics. Without any doubt, when the time comes and a consensus is to be found, the Junk will put themselves first and the possibility of reform will come last.

  5. BK at 10:04 am
    An excellent choice of song for ‘Birmo’ . Leading a culturally deprived life I had never heard that song before now, thank you. 🙂

  6. nath

    My family has a long history of involvement in indigenous affairs. In 1928, my grandfather brought the Coniston massacre to the attention of the media and then lobbied for a Royal Commission into it.

    (And I teach about the Uluru statement to students).

  7. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 11:06 am

    nath

    My family has a long history of involvement in indigenous affairs. In 1928, my grandfather brought the Coniston massacre to the attention of the media and then lobbied for a Royal Commission into it.

    (And I teach about the Uluru statement to students).
    ________
    Yet when C@t called Lidia Thorpe a witchety grub you were strangely silent.

  8. The newest member of the Greens parliamentary team and proud Noongar Yamatji woman, Senator Dorinda Cox, calls out Labor’s and the Coalition’s disgraceful environmental vandalism…

  9. I am very happy to inform that NZ cricketers of Migrant background saved the cricket arse of NZ by drawing the Cricket Test against India in India in a tense final 40 minutes battle of strong resistance and defence. IMO, Kane Williamson is the best Cricket Captain of a National team in the world. He engenders strong sense of loyalty amongst players and give their best for the team.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/new-zealand-in-india-2021-22-1278658/india-vs-new-zealand-1st-test-1278674/match-report

  10. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 11:14 am

    nath

    Nice attempts at deflection, which suggests you can’t dent my main arguments.
    ___________
    What is your argument? That Lidia Thorpe is a bully and a troublemaker in the indigenous community? That seems to be the sum of your commitment to indigenous issues.

  11. Is the Reichspotato aware he’s undermining our national share portfolio by banging the drum on China?

    “Australia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Future Fund, has invested in a Chinese state-controlled weapons manufacturer that has sold combat aircraft to the Myanmar military, which is accused of crimes against humanity”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/29/australias-future-fund-invested-in-weapons-manufacturers-that-have-sold-arms-to-myanmar-military

    Nice work here btw Costello – responsible investments! 😛

    Never forget these LNP idiots are the same crew who leased the Port of Darwin to China for 99 years.

  12. nath

    My argument is that the Greens are ignoring the wishes of the indigenous community, as laid out in the Uluru statement, and that this appears to be at the behest of Thorpe.

    You’re welcome to (i) show that there is a strong push by First Nations people to change the order of priorities or (ii) this is a considered position arrived at by the Greens party, after wide consultation, and not just the result of lobbying by one individual.

  13. Granny Anny says:
    Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 11:19 am

    What’s your commitment to indigenous issues Nath?
    _______
    Good question. I am committed to Self Determination that the Hawke/Keating government implemented. Which at the moment involves a return to some kind of ATSIC level organization.

    In that spirit, I don’t criticize Indigenous people for any stance they take in relation to their own communities and issues. I leave it to Indigenous leaders to work this out among themselves as they invariably do.

    I’m certain that despite their differences, all indigenous leaders wouldn’t appreciate me sticking my beak in and singling out one of them for criticism. Just because she’s a Greens Senator, or a Liberal Senator etc etc.

  14. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 11:24 am

    nath

    My argument is that the Greens are ignoring the wishes of the indigenous community, as laid out in the Uluru statement, and that this appears to be at the behest of Thorpe.
    ______
    You are motivated by hostility towards Thorpe/Greens. That is the total amount of interest you have in the issue.

  15. nath @ #112 Tuesday, November 30th, 2021 – 8:16 am

    zoomster says:
    Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 11:14 am

    nath

    Nice attempts at deflection, which suggests you can’t dent my main arguments.
    ___________
    What is your argument? That Lidia Thorpe is a bully and a troublemaker in the indigenous community? That seems to be the sum of your commitment to indigenous issues.

    Any reasonable person would realise that zoomster is suggesting that Thorpe has moved the Greens’ position on Indigenous Affairs from a wide based consensus position to a more niche factional one.

  16. I agree with Zoomster. I’m not a first Australian, and therefore it’s quite possible I’m not appreciating some of the context here, but the Greens’ position strikes me as just being different for the sake of being different. The current form of the Uluru Statement has, as far as I can tell, broad support in the indigenous community, whereas Lydia Thorpe’s alternative has the support of, well, Lydia Thorpe.

  17. Asha says:
    Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 11:30 am

    I agree with Zoomster. I’m not a first Australian, and therefore it’s quite possible I’m not appreciating some of the context here, but the Greens’ position strikes me as just being different for the sake of being different. The current form of the Uluru Statement has, as far as I can tell, broad support in the indigenous community, whereas Lydia Thorpe’s alternative has the support of, well, Lydia Thorpe.
    ______
    Do you often get involved in disagreements between Indigenous leaders? Perhaps you can pop by a Land Council meeting and see who is at odds with the majority?

  18. Lidia Thorpe & her mob has got up the nose of almost all of the rest of the Victorian indigenous community, in part due to the challenge over the area where the Western Highway upgrade is going through which is effectively a turf war between different family groups.

    “Voice” has to come first as there needs to be a representative body to agree to the terms of the “Treaty”. Otherwise, the Treaty is going to be an agreement between the government and self-appointed representatives (which is paternalistic by those “representatives”).

  19. B.S. Fairman says:
    Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 11:37 am

    Lidia Thorpe & her mob has got up the nose of almost all of the rest of the Victorian indigenous community, in part due to the challenge over the area where the Western Highway upgrade is going through which is effectively a turf war between different family groups.
    __________________
    You clearly favor the latter group. Are you saying this a case of good Aboriginals vs bad Aboriginals?

  20. Adani

    But the company remains cagey about the specifics and whether the train (which is branded with the logo of Adani’s subsidiary, Bowen Rail Company) stopped by activists near Bowen – on the line to the Abbot Point port – contains a first load.

    The moment will be significant – and heavily stage-managed by both the company and climate activists – given the decade-long controversy about the mine’s construction and the unprecedented campaign to stop it proceeding.

    The Greens and Adani on the same page, Adani wants compensation for a very poor business decision and the Greens want to pretend they matter.

    Both are a bunch of wankers.

  21. Asha

    IMO this is not about the Greens differentiating themselves.

    If you read the Greens policies you will find many a line that strikes you as distinctly odd – until you remember that some particularity or other of a single-issue clump of members is driving the policy statements.

    I assume the reason they get through is that the majority of Greens members figure they will never actually have to put them into practice.

    The Thorpe issue is not a Thorpe issue, per se. Every individual Indigenous person has the right to try to bend policies they way they want.

    The deeper issue for all political parties is that there is no legitimate process for gauging Indigenous opinion. That is what the Statement from the Heart was intended to address. Where Labor has it right is that it has accepted that implementing the Statement will enable the development of a legitimate Indigenous voice.

    By way of contrast, the Coalition is intent on gutting the Statement because it does not want to give an Indigenous Voice legitimacy. Wyatt has been given the task of negotiating with Indigenous people some sort of Clayton’s ‘Voice’ to parliament. I don’t know how far this has gone. I can’t imagine the likes of Christensen supporting anything at all.

  22. nath @ #117 Tuesday, November 30th, 2021 – 8:24 am

    Granny Anny says:
    Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 11:19 am

    What’s your commitment to indigenous issues Nath?
    _______
    Good question. I am committed to Self Determination that the Hawke/Keating government implemented. Which at the moment involves a return to some kind of ATSIC level organization.

    In that spirit, I don’t criticize Indigenous people for any stance they take in relation to their own communities and issues. I leave it to Indigenous leaders to work this out among themselves as they invariably do.

    I’m certain that despite their differences, all indigenous leaders wouldn’t appreciate me sticking my beak in and singling out one of them for criticism. Just because she’s a Greens Senator, or a Liberal Senator etc etc.

    And yet you seem happy with the Greens pushing a minority position.

    This is not a case of Thorpe’s personal views, but it seems she has used her position as her Party’s spokesperson to change their policy to reflect her minority position.

    If the Greens were true to what you say, they would respect and support the majority opinion approach and that would be reflected in their policies.

  23. Nath:

    I’m going off of what I’ve read and heard actual first nations commentators say on the matter. You’re right, I’m not particularly involved in indigenous affairs. As a result, I’m typically hesitant to comment on what are often quite sensitive issues.

    That said, both my parents have strong ties to the local indigenous community up in far north Queensland, where I spent my childhood and teenage years. My grandmother was a close friend of Frank Hardy’s, and heavily involved in the Gurindji land rights campaign back in the 60s and 70s – my Dad and Uncle, who were kids at the time, still have copies of correspondence with Vincent Lingiari and other central figures from that campaign. So, while I don’t pretend to be anything close to an expert on these issues, I don’t speak from a total lack of understanding here either.

  24. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 11:40 am

    If the Greens were true to what you say, they would respect and support the majority opinion approach and that would be reflected in their policies.
    __________
    The Greens appoint an Indigenous First Nations spokesperson reflecting their commitment to Self Determination and then overrule her opinions as spokesperson. What a ridiculous suggestion.

    Anyway, I’ve got to be going.

  25. nath

    So ultimately you’re saying that we should all butt out and leave it up to indigenous people to deal with their issues (caveat: at some point, ‘we’ have to agree with whatever they come up with…)

    That’s fine, but in that case your position should be that the Greens should also butt out, rather than supporting a factional interest.

    Albo supporting the implementation of the Uluru statement IS supporting First Nations people dealing with their own issues. It’s the whole point of a Voice.

  26. zoomster is one of the most logical (and dare I say intelligent) posters on this blog, who never makes statements she cannot back up with her own research. Mocking her just to get a rise is puerile.

  27. I know this was noted on the previous thread.

    *David Dalaithngu*, a titanic force in Australian cinema, dies after lung cancer diagnosis (my highlighting)

    I was aware of some aspects of referencing deceased, but not specifically this

    His family have asked for his previous name to not be used for the time being, in accordance with traditional Yolngu bereavement practices.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/29/david-dalaithngu-a-titanic-force-in-australian-cinema-dies-after-lung-cancer-diagnosis

  28. Firefox says:
    Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 11:12 am

    Labor have demonstrated very lucidly that they are not a Parliamentary Trojan Horse for Greenware. This is a necessary condition for their possible win in the coming election.

    What’s not to like? If Labor win sufficiently well the Junk will count for nothing.

  29. The Djab Warrung group signed up to the agreement on the boundary with the Eastern Marr and then reneged on the agreement when it didn’t suit them. The processes agreed with the state government cease to be workable about if the agreed traditional owners can be overridden by more vocal groups.

  30. Not that I’ve seen nath’s comments, but I’m assuming, based upon what others have said, that he should practice what he preaches and butt out of commenting on Indigenous affairs. Being a White guy and all. So should every White fella, according to him, it seems. Which is kind of discriminatory when you think about it.

    Not to mention that Labor has more Indigenous voices contributing to its perspective than The Greens can ever hope to have.

  31. Lynchpin,

    3.2% and Labor have held it before. The sort of seat that will go with the swing imho.

    Baini seems hell bent on splitting the Lib vote.

    Doesn’t seem like a Labor preferencer based on that article.

    So, she might end up with Clive Palmer.

  32. I took my dogs to the Vet this morning to get their annual injections and also picked up my Vax certificate from the Med Centre.

    We can now go forward into the New Year with confidence!!!

  33. nath @ #132 Tuesday, November 30th, 2021 – 8:46 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 11:40 am

    If the Greens were true to what you say, they would respect and support the majority opinion approach and that would be reflected in their policies.
    __________
    The Greens appoint an Indigenous First Nations spokesperson reflecting their commitment to Self Determination and then overrule her opinions as spokesperson. What a ridiculous suggestion.

    It may be to you, where self interest is paramount, but I thought the Greens were about evidence when forming policy.

    She’s free to pursue her position in private, but should accept the clear consensus that came out of Uluru.

    If she can’t do that, then she probably shouldn’t be the Party’s spokesperson in this area.

  34. ItzaDream @ #134 Tuesday, November 30th, 2021 – 11:50 am

    I know this was noted on the previous thread.

    *David Dalaithngu*, a titanic force in Australian cinema, dies after lung cancer diagnosis (my highlighting)

    I was aware of some aspects of referencing deceased, but not specifically this

    His family have asked for his previous name to not be used for the time being, in accordance with traditional Yolngu bereavement practices.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/29/david-dalaithngu-a-titanic-force-in-australian-cinema-dies-after-lung-cancer-diagnosis

    Have to respect their wishes. But how would anyone have known who it was if someone hadn’t pointed out it was … you know who … ? I certainly didn’t 🙁

  35. The United States plans to deploy additional rotations of fighter and bomber aircraft in Australia to deter against potential Chinese military aggression and threats from North Korea.

    A Pentagon review of the US’s military resources throughout the world has also called for an upgrade of its bases in Guam and Australia to counter Beijing’s military buildup in the Indo-Pacific region.
    The review says the new rotations and upgrade of bases are needed to “deter potential Chinese military aggression and threats from North Korea”.

    The Pentagon has been directed to enhance its “infrastructure in Guam and Australia” and to prioritise “military construction across the Pacific islands”.

    “In Australia, you’ll see new rotational fighter and bomber aircraft deployments,” said Mara Karlin, deputy under secretary for policy at the US’s Department of Defence.

    “You’ll see ground forces training and increased logistics cooperation, and more broadly across the Indo-Pacific, you’ll see a range of infrastructure improvements, in Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands and Australia.”

  36. From the Jenkins report executive summary

    “Leadership deficit
    One of the most common themes raised was the
    critical role of leaders in creating and maintaining
    a safe, respectful and inclusive workplace. As one
    participant observed, ‘it comes from the top’.

    While examples of good leadership which set the
    tone for safety and respect were described by some
    participants, many discussed the way in which
    leaders themselves were responsible for bullying,
    sexual harassment and sexual assault, and also their
    inadequate responses to the misconduct of others…”

  37. An Indigenous First Nations spokesperson, overrules the opinions of other Indigenous Nation spokespersons. In fact, the majority of Indigenous nations’ spokespersons. What an arrogant individual. Why her opinion should override theirs is beyond ridiculous.

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