A consensus has locked in over the past week behind the notion that the federal election will not be until May, with John Kehoe of the Financial Review reporting public servants have been told to cut short summer holiday plans to help prepare a pre-election budget in April. The government will then be able to “fight the poll on an expected economic bounce-back from COVID-19”.
Also:
• Liberal member John Alexander has announced he will not seek re-election in his Sydney seat of Bennelong, which he recovered for the Liberals in 2010 following John Howard’s historic defeat in 2007. The Sydney Morning Herald reports contenders for the preselection are likely to include Gisele Kapterian, a former chief-of-staff to Michaelia Cash and current executive at software company Salesforce, and City of Sydney councillor Craig Chung. Kapterian was mentioned as a possible challenger to Alexander’s preselection earlier in the year.
• The federal government seems to be struggling to get the numbers it will need to pass its voter identification bill through the Senate before the election. With One Nation for and Labor, the Greens and independent Senator Rex Patrick vehemently opposed, the swing votes in the Senate are Centre Alliance Senator Stirling Griff and independent Jacqui Lambie. While Griff supports the idea in principle, the Financial Review reports that Lambie and the Centre Alliance’s lower house member, Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie, has criticised the short time frame and the government’s prioritisation of the matter over issues including the establishment a federal integrity commission. Independent MP Bob Katter added to the momentum against the measure when he declared it “blatantly racist” due to its disproportionate impact on indigenous voters.
• In the period between his drink driving misadventure a fortnight ago and announcement at the start of this week that he would bow out at the next election, Tim Smith’s Victorian state seat of Kew was the subject of a comprehensive poll by Redbridge Group which had Liberal on 39%, Labor on 31% and the Greens on 12%, suggesting a close contest between Liberal and Labor at the final count to be determined by the unknown quantity of independent and small party preferences. However, the poll also recorded a 40.2% “very unfavourable” rating for state Labor, along with 44.9% for Smith and 49.5% for one of his backers, Tony Abbott. The poll was conducted November 4 to 7 from a sample of 920.
• The Liberals have confirmed candidates for two Hunter region seats that swung heavily against Labor in 2019. In Paterson, where the margin was cut from 10.7% to 5.0% in 2019, the candidate will be Brooke Vitnell, a family law solicitor and former ministerial staffer to Paul Fletcher and Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells. Shortland will again be contested by Nell McGill, a commercial litigator at Sparke Helmore Lawyers, who cut the margin from 9.9% to 4.4% in 2019.
• It has come to my attention that US pollster Morning Consult conducts a weekly tracking poll of approval and disapproval for 13 world leaders including Scott Morrison, who has lately fallen into net negative territory.
”
citizensays:
Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 10:11 am
Another Harris article straight from Morrison’s PR department masquerading as news.
Upbeat Scott Morrison calls on businesses to step up to the climate challenge
By Rob Harris
November 13, 2021 — 5.00am
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has challenged corporate Australia to step up and end its “rent-seeking” approach by instead focusing on offering the cheaper, sustainable solutions that customers are demanding across Australia and in the world’s biggest economies.
In an interview with The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, an upbeat Mr Morrison said he believes the world will beat climate change in the same way it has responded to other crises and warned against adopting the “defeatist” attitudes of climate activists and foreign leaders who say “we’ll all be ruined”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/upbeat-scott-morrison-calls-on-businesses-to-step-up-to-the-climate-challenge-20211112-p598ab.html
”
Thanks Morrison for identifying me and P1 as activists. 🙂
You’re exhausting, m lol
Aaaanyway – it’s interesting the shift we’ve seen internally where it felt the Government was readying for an early election, to readying an early Budget.
Clearly, Morrison doesn’t feel he can win ANY contest (which must be disheartening to our resident negative self-soothers) and needs to rely on a budget and hope people forget/adjust.
Bradbury was past his prime, recently recovered from serious injury, and wrecked by just getting to the final – he knew he couldn’t win in a clear race. But his tactics weren’t blind hope. This wasn’t a one on one race, there was good reason to believe there would be interference in the field of racers. He still had hard work to do.
shellbell says:
Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 10:15 am
We are now 15 /38 OECD on fully vaccinateds and will go past the Norway in the next day or two.
On a weekday about 0.4% of all Australians are getting their second doses and there is about a 7% difference between nationwide first and second doses.
We should be top 10 before Xmas.
______________________
A sad report for the PB Death Riders!
”
Taylormadesays:
Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 10:23 am
Morgan back in the good books. Must have been a favourable result for the ALP
”
Taylormaid
It appears you are one of those 84 % LNP Voters who does not view Andrews favourably. Good on ya.you are in the group of people who represent overwhelming majority. 🙂
If Labor is not worried by this, then they should be …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/13/backed-by-climate-200s-2m-war-chest-independent-challengers-circle-coalition-seats
There is a real chance that the electorate might choose to return a Coalition government – but one that is backed by independents who will force it to take real action on climate change.
It is probably time for Labor to rethink their “no target” strategy.
Choose to act. Vote independent.
And only 8 months, tens of thousands of infections and a couple of thousand deaths too late.
Q. How do you know something will never happen?
A. If Morrison promises it.
(c.f. Car parks, Federal ICAC, Budget Surplus, lower taxes, Bushfire Relief, NDIS, PMO Investigations into rape allegations, anything to do with Climate Change, anything to do with vaccination, quarantine or economic management).
Jake Tapper on Steve Bannon:
https://youtu.be/yF6lZNu4XXI
This high 97% support number jumped out at me.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/not-hope-but-hopelessness-perrottet-outlines-opposition-to-assisted-dying-20211112-p598gx.html
(thanks BK)
It sent me looking for recent data (July 2021, The Australia Institute)
and ….
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/alexgreenwich/pages/10344/attachments/original/1632369407/Polling_-_July_2021_-_NSW_Voluntary_assisted_dying.pdf
(The Australia Institute)
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 8:17 am
The commentary around the ~14% Others appearing in the polls have pointed to the fat yellow slug party – however this is more likely the cause IMHO..
‘The Coalition now has 76 seats in the 151-seat parliament. Labor needs to win eight seats to govern in its own right.
“If we can just win two or three seats it’s highly likely there will be a minority government,” Holmes à Court says. “We will be back in the situation in 2010, where the independents will have a tough decision to make and, whichever way they go, they will give the government of the day the backbone to deal with the issues we care about.”
This really just ignores the difficulty of legislating on climate without the LNP. And they are offering a sham. Howard, Rudd, Gillard and Turnbull all come to grief in part because of the politics of climate change. Morrison is determined he will not be the next to fall into the quagmire.
Abbott, Minchin, Joyce and Brown have a great deal to answer for. We had a chance and we lost it in the Senate 12 years ago.
BB
“It’s going to be a horrible election.”
It is a horrible election!
According to Sarah Martin in The Guardian, Labor’s problem in countering LNP’s do-nothing policy will be that anything at all that they propose will be labelled as “big spending on your taxes”, or “more interfering in your lives”.
This is so true. That’s why Labor introducing pricing of carbon emissions will be difficult because the Liberals will run out ‘a great big tax!’ scare campaign.
Its also why the Greens on this forum are not true reflection of some of the more fair minded Greens. Some Greens do acknowledge the Liberal tactics and the resistance that come with introducing environmental friendly policies. Instead you get the get usual bullshit ‘Labor’s environmental vandal’s’ or ‘its either tweedle dum or tweedle dee with the major parties’. Which is why alot of discussion with the Greens on this forum goes into the toilet.
Ven,
Around 30-40% of UAP preferences went to Labor in Victoria at the 2019 Federal Election.
I’m having trouble with ‘I’ve got no offspring and I don’t care any more about the planet’ thoughts. It’s too exhausting, and draining, and desperately sad. The planet will eventually sort this out, and it will do so by reducing the pollution that made it uninhabitable, by making it uninhabitable.
Player One says:
Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 10:44 am
If Labor is not worried by this, then they should be …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/13/backed-by-climate-200s-2m-war-chest-independent-challengers-circle-coalition-seats
There is a real chance that the electorate might choose to return a Coalition government – but one that is backed by independents who will force it to take real action on climate change.
It is probably time for Labor to rethink their “no target” strategy.
Choose to act. Vote independent.
The Independent campaign is not aimed at Labor. It’s aimed at Liberals. If they succeed, Lib-lite members will replace the Lib-heavy. This cannot hurt Labor, and, in truth, wont hurt the Liberals a whole lot either. The Parliament – where the Senate will always be hostile – is salted ground for Labor these days.
Labor’s strategy appears to be aimed at focussing the political conversation around climate policies on the LNP. This is an excellent idea. The LNP have frustrated every single move in this area for 25 years. They have derived enormous political gains from doing so. It’s high time they faced the scrutiny they deserve.
Labor have taken the heat on climate policies every day since 2009. It’s the turn of the Liberals, and, looks like, they will fall short.
This won’t do much to help Morrison at the election. While the current inflationary pressures are being felt across the globe, the voters are much more likely to blame Morrison than “the global supply chain in crisis”.
As well as the cost of petrol, I have noticed some significant price rises for our regular purchases at the supermarket.
If wages fail to rise quickly, a lot of voters will be checking on their baseball bats in the cupboard. On top of this, interest rates are trending upwards.
Those Tree Tory indies are single issue indies not the least bit interested in reforming ANYTHING other than patting themselves on the back.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ll take a Minority Lib Government over a majority… but don’t pretend these Tree Tories aren’t still tories at heart.
Chances are, even in that situation, it’ll be unmitigated chaos in the Senate. This is exactly what the Government would want, since they can rely on their fellow tories to get the rest of their agenda done – but will happily allow the single-issue agenda to be blocked in the Senate.
bakunin says:
Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 10:16 am
It’s time for Labor to stop indulging in the fantasy that they can slide into office by doing nothing.
Labor represent an existential menace to the LNP and the Greens. They embody a whole set of valencies that distinguish them from the reactionaries and the junk-left…which is why the Greens campaign so hard to disable Labor.
Labor are not about to “slide” into a win. If Labor win it will by refusing to indulge their enemies.
bakunin says:
Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 10:16 am
It’s time for Labor to stop indulging in the fantasy that they can slide into office by doing nothing.
__________________
I don’t blame them for it. It’s the only strategy that works. Although I’m a big fan of Albo I did expect something big on Infrastructure by now. But perhaps during the campaign it will arrive. It is his signature issue after all.
Briefly I am still waiting for that apology.
Sprocket
I up you 2 ….
The later being The Shire Liars latest Facebook banner… probably taken at great tax payers expense by SL personal 24/7 photographer.
Does existential have much work to do as an adjective?
Quick thoughts on US Jan 6 politics before today “unravels”.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2021/nov/12/trump-capitol-inquiry-latest-mark-meadows-contempt-us-politics-biden-democrats
Consistent purpose leads to consistent coordinated messaging by two different organisations and also to consistency over time, but it opens the door for conspiracy claims. And that makes what’s happening so interesting.
I see 5 very personal messages. (1) You’re not special. (2) You fucked up. (3) We’re coming for you. (4) You’re outnumbered and outgunned. (5) We won’t stop.
I see two purposes, to enshrine consequences and to destroy Trump. (He’s got that part right when he bleats about an “unselect committee”.) What’s interesting is that so far the process seems on track to achieve at least the second objective, identifying the true Trumpists and destroying Trump. If it achieves the first it might even add a new layer of protection to US democracy. (Sounds lofty, I know.)
Examples of DOJ Messaging
(1) “… equal justice under the law, …”
(2) “… refusal to appear for a deposition and another involving his refusal to produce documents …”
(3) “… follows the facts and the law and pursues equal justice …”, “… Bannon, 67, is charged with one contempt count …”, “… together we would show the American people by word and deed …”
(5) “Today’s charges reflect the department’s steadfast commitment to these principles.”
Examples of J6C Messaging
(1) “… until his decision to hide behind the former President’s spurious claims of privilege …”, “… who believe they are above the law …”
(2) “… choosing to defy the law… ”
(3) “… will force the select committee to consider pursuing contempt or other proceedings …”
(4) “… Mr Meadows has chosen to join a very small group of witnesses…”, “… getting answers for the American people …”, “… the tools at our disposal to get the information we need …”
(5) “… Mr Meadows, [Steve] Bannon, and others who go down this path won’t prevail in stopping the Select Committee’s effort… “, “… We will not hesitate …”
It just sits there, ominously, in front of ‘threat’.
ItzaDream
A minuscule threat would be existential?
https://youtu.be/2GI5CHj53BI
Jan6 Committee member, Rep Zoe Lofgren.
It would be interesting to know why Victorian and New South Wales first dose vaccination rates for 12-year-olds to 15-year-olds are petering out at 10 to 12% below adults.
St Anthony just found the secateurs, down by a pile of mulch where I’ve been planting. Memo to self – secateurs must have red handles. Grey and black ones make unnecessary work for saints who are needed for more important missions, like lost Birth Certificates.
shellbell @ #123 Saturday, November 13th, 2021 – 11:28 am
Minuscule is a relativity, a point on a graph, in time, a virus.
citizen @ #114 Saturday, November 13th, 2021 – 11:05 am
People will notice it when they go to buy their Xmas presents. It’s the little, personal things like that that bite governments. Things that governments have no control over either. 🙂
I mean, I’m of the conspiratorial opinion that the rise in the cost of petrol is the Saudi government and OPEC’s deal with Donald Trump to mortally wound the presidency of Joe Biden so that they can shoehorn Trump back into the White House and they can all get back to their autocratic, kleptocratic ways. However, there are governments of their own persuasion, such as Morrison, still in power, and it will hurt them too.
Too bad. So sad.
(nasa)
Itza,
Has Douglas and Milko managed to contact you yet about our hoped for get-together in December? The PB Xmas Catch Up. I hope you agree to come along. 🙂
I hope anyone that is interested in coming along also lets us know.
ItzaDream
Unbelievably, bright red secateurs can also be lost in the garden, by hiding in piles of mulch.
😆
No new coronavirus deaths have been reported in NSW in the previous 24 hours, for the first time in almost three months, reports AAP.
(guardian)
lizzie @ #131 Saturday, November 13th, 2021 – 11:40 am
You and St Anthony have some sorting out to do.
jt1983
You have perfectly voiced my concern.
Their votes will always return home.
C@tmomma @ #130 Saturday, November 13th, 2021 – 11:39 am
Hi C@t – we’ve been in touch yes, and loosely talked about a catch up in November. But I’m pretty hopeless with getting to Sydney these days, a combination of its too lovely here and too busy here, and inertia. We got as far as later in the week rather than earlier. Maybe a Thursday early in December? How would you plan around it – gotta have a plan!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/marise-payne-says-us-and-china-now-need-to-put-climate-pact-into-action-20211112-p598hm.html
What possible authority can Australia call on to say this? We are pariahs in the world scene.
Labor’s new three word slogan …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-13/the-question-of-china-deserves-more-than-fatuous-slogans/100616510
Labor: “We’re with them”
Vote for change. Vote independent.
C@tmomma, thanks. It reinforces my thoughts. The process is out to do two things, get Trump and set consequences. In the short term though I wonder how this indictment of Bannon ultimately leads to Bannon’s testimony. Once Bannon is arrested, presumably bailed, and if he still defies the subpoena, does he get indicted again?
Political Nightwatchman @ #110 Saturday, November 13th, 2021 – 10:51 am
‘This is so true. That’s why Labor introducing pricing of carbon emissions will be difficult because the Liberals will run out ‘a great big tax!’ scare campaign.’
And Labor, having learnt their lesson from the last time would know exactly how to neutralise it.
Wouldn’t they?
Late Riser @ #138 Saturday, November 13th, 2021 – 11:52 am
He gets put in jail. He either starts co-operating, or he gets put in jail. He has the weakest case of Executive Privilege, so others who have stronger cases, eg Mark Meadows, Trump’s COS (and not that I think he has a case either, or maybe only partially wrt conversations with Trump directly, IF Trump wins his case), they may not want to see Bannon’s case decided in the negative because that would prejudice their own case resulting in a favourable judgement.
The real politik point though is, they’re all trying to run out the clock until the Mid Terms where they expect a new Republican Majority in the House to can the Jan6 Committee and they will all be safe.
“Liberal member John Alexander has announced he will not seek re-election in his Sydney seat of Bennelong”…
Excellent!… Bennelong is now a very good target for a combined challenge by a Moderate Liberal Independent, Greens and the ALP. If they swap preferences among themselves, one of them (the one with the largest primary vote) is likely to be the winner of the seat!
Bring it on!
Trump should fear Bannon flipping because he no longer has a ‘get out of jail free card’: legal expert
Trump adviser Steve Bannon is facing a “classic prisoner’s dilemma,” according to former acting U.S. solicitor general Neal Katyal.
Bannon, indicted Friday on two counts of contempt, could reverse course and agree to cooperate with the House Select Committee investigating the Capitol insurrection. Or, he could continue to defy the committee and potentially face jail time.
“The most important point here is that if you’re Trump, or if you’re frankly anyone else in [the] Jan. 6 [probe], you’ve got to worry that Bannon could turn against you,” Katyal told MSNBC on Friday night. “This is not a guy known for his loyalty. It’s always about what’s in it for himself. There’s no underlying principle. So that’s the kind of classic prisoner’s dilemma situation that prosecutors use all the time.”
There’s no get out of jail free card anymore, so a self-interested and frankly evil person like Bannon is probably going to think about what’s best for him, and not anyone else.”
https://www.rawstory.com/steve-bannon-indictment-analysis-2655544850/
Itza,
I can do Thursday the 9th of December, or the 17th, 18th or 19th, if you are looking at late in the week/the weekend. If that’s any help. I get you about inertia though, which is why I made the effort to get back to Sydney last week. 🙂
“A consensus has locked in over the past week behind the notion that the federal election will not be until May”…. The longer ScuMo, the Liar from the Shire, delays the date of the election the more obvious it will be that he is scared to death and he is just waiting for a second “miracle”… The game is extra-dangerous, because rather than a second “miracle” what ScuMo, the Liar from the Shire, is likely to get is an even more adverse outcome than the one he might have got had he called the federal election earlier….
nath,
LNP are attacking Labor’s 2019 policies in absence of current policy.
Do Labor *really* want to spend the next few months re-fighting the 2019 Election?
The Coalition are a Policy-Free Black Hole. They have policies, they just don’t tell you them in an election campaign. You can’t see them or what is on the other side.
Ahh, with the OECD (Cormann et al), EU, probably US and other western developed nations all discussing a carbon price as the most effective mechanism to reduce carbon pollution, and border carbon adjustment mechanisms likely to be introduced, it’s once again all the Greens fault on PB.
With a 1000:1 ratio of Laborite clique posting blind partisan and often inane critiques of everyone except Labor on PB. It is of course any other viewpoint that is the source of how narrow and shit the PB comments section is regularly. Of course.
Nothing has put me off Labor more than years of seeing the partisan dribble many of the Labor PB clique posts, again and again and again, day after day, year after year.
Why even bother trying to engage in any sensible discussion with some who are self-evidently completely blind and prejudiced against any view except Labor, oi oi oi.
Weirdly enough I had just seen this series of tweets from John Quiggin below on the matter
Would be great to see neither Lib nor Labor with a majority and the contortions both would then have to apply to themselves to undo the idiocy of the corner they have painted themselves into, when it comes to doing anything truly useful on reducing carbon pollution and ending coal, oil and gas.
No doubt the coffers are both parties would be filling up with fossil fuel corporate cash right now, even as the Laborite clique posts here day after day, in order to keep the parties in their place and working for the vested interests that have captured so many Aust governments.
How weird that both major parties appear to have come to a point where competing for do-nothing mediocrity is the standard by which they campaign for elections on?
To borrow the words of one PB clique member, if that’s the best either Lib or Labor have got then we’re fucked if that is the only option.
JohnQuiggin
@JohnQuiggin
Labor and LNP agree on everything (tax, public spending, climate, foreign policy), except which of them should get the top jobs. Here’s the latest from Bowen
news.com.au
No chance of carbon tax revival
The prospect of a carbon tax in Australia is all but dead as both major parties dismiss the suggestion a global push for emissions pricing could lead to the policy revival.
11:34 AM · Nov 7, 2021·
16
Retweets
3
Quote Tweets
54
Likes
JohnQuiggin @JohnQuiggin
·
Naive to suppose that Labor will be able to shift left once in government. Historically, it’s always been the opposite. Labor used to announce ambitious programs, then do less. Now they promise to do nothing, and will keep that promise if elected.
JohnQuiggin @JohnQuiggin
·
Sadly, not enough people on left will draw the obvious conclusion and vote Green. Many (including most of commentariat) still don’t really understand preferential voting – imagine that a first preference vote is worth more than a redistributed second preference.
“The federal government seems to be struggling to get the numbers it will need to pass its voter identification bill through the Senate before the election.”…
The bill should be rejected, end of the story. If you are serious about voters’ fraud you offer the idea in your program, go to an election and implement the changes from year one of your government if you win and have the numbers in the Senate. Suggesting such changes just a few months before an election that you are very likely to lose, smells too strongly like Trumpist manipulation of Democracy, offered with the objective of stealing a hopeless election.