A consensus has locked in over the past week behind the notion that the federal election will not be until May, with John Kehoe of the Financial Review reporting public servants have been told to cut short summer holiday plans to help prepare a pre-election budget in April. The government will then be able to “fight the poll on an expected economic bounce-back from COVID-19”.
Also:
• Liberal member John Alexander has announced he will not seek re-election in his Sydney seat of Bennelong, which he recovered for the Liberals in 2010 following John Howard’s historic defeat in 2007. The Sydney Morning Herald reports contenders for the preselection are likely to include Gisele Kapterian, a former chief-of-staff to Michaelia Cash and current executive at software company Salesforce, and City of Sydney councillor Craig Chung. Kapterian was mentioned as a possible challenger to Alexander’s preselection earlier in the year.
• The federal government seems to be struggling to get the numbers it will need to pass its voter identification bill through the Senate before the election. With One Nation for and Labor, the Greens and independent Senator Rex Patrick vehemently opposed, the swing votes in the Senate are Centre Alliance Senator Stirling Griff and independent Jacqui Lambie. While Griff supports the idea in principle, the Financial Review reports that Lambie and the Centre Alliance’s lower house member, Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie, has criticised the short time frame and the government’s prioritisation of the matter over issues including the establishment a federal integrity commission. Independent MP Bob Katter added to the momentum against the measure when he declared it “blatantly racist” due to its disproportionate impact on indigenous voters.
• In the period between his drink driving misadventure a fortnight ago and announcement at the start of this week that he would bow out at the next election, Tim Smith’s Victorian state seat of Kew was the subject of a comprehensive poll by Redbridge Group which had Liberal on 39%, Labor on 31% and the Greens on 12%, suggesting a close contest between Liberal and Labor at the final count to be determined by the unknown quantity of independent and small party preferences. However, the poll also recorded a 40.2% “very unfavourable” rating for state Labor, along with 44.9% for Smith and 49.5% for one of his backers, Tony Abbott. The poll was conducted November 4 to 7 from a sample of 920.
• The Liberals have confirmed candidates for two Hunter region seats that swung heavily against Labor in 2019. In Paterson, where the margin was cut from 10.7% to 5.0% in 2019, the candidate will be Brooke Vitnell, a family law solicitor and former ministerial staffer to Paul Fletcher and Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells. Shortland will again be contested by Nell McGill, a commercial litigator at Sparke Helmore Lawyers, who cut the margin from 9.9% to 4.4% in 2019.
• It has come to my attention that US pollster Morning Consult conducts a weekly tracking poll of approval and disapproval for 13 world leaders including Scott Morrison, who has lately fallen into net negative territory.
Are you okay, Quoll?
ALP is damned if it fights now & damned if it doesn’t.
Attacked if it uses slogans, yet attacked for not having any.
Crucified for releasing policies, the same if they don’t.
It’s a hard ask that the ALP be the shining light when so many tactics are demanded & crucified by the media.
Labor has to reveal all, prove all.
Rudd only won because of the lived experience of many with Worchoices. Gillard’s win was the hangover from Workchoices. It didn’t take much to send the masses back to marketing central.
It’s hard to break through the Coalition & their marketing arm, the media.
We know a Labor government would never survive the behaviour seen in successive Coalition governments.
Corruption appears to be ok, as long as it doesn’t hurt voters on a tangible personal level & not the ALP.
It appears the message of ALP incompetence has stained a generation.
Rant over!
Quoll doing a good job converting PB to the Green Way..
With a 1000:1 ratio of Laborite clique posting blind partisan and often inane critiques of everyone except Labor on PB. It is of course any other viewpoint that is the source of how narrow and shit the PB comments section is regularly. Of course.
Nothing has put me off Labor more than years of seeing the partisan dribble many of the Labor PB clique posts, again and again and again, day after day, year after year.
Why even bother trying to engage in any sensible discussion with some who are self-evidently completely blind and prejudiced against any view except Labor, oi oi oi.
Excellent!… Bennelong is now a very good target for a combined challenge by a Moderate Liberal Independent, Greens and the ALP. If they swap preferences among themselves, one of them (the one with the largest primary vote) is likely to be the winner of the seat!
Bring it on!
Yeah I will say though, that independents running for this seat are unlikely to help Labor by preferences. They will either not give a preference like Zali Steggall or they will preference the Liberals like Kerryn Phelps.
It’s done so they can’t be accused of being a Labor plant by their Liberal opponents. Even though they wouldn’t be a chance in hell without Labor preferences.
I’m not convinced a moderate Independent will make it in the final two party preferred vote in Bennelong anyway. Labor received a primary vote of 34% last election which the scenario of running dead for an independent would be counter productive in my view.
Why won’t Labor ask Proven vote winner Kristina Keneally to take up the mantle in Bennelong ?
She has run in Bennelong before, she could run again?
Abbott government’s changes to the national broadband network have been an expensive disaster. ?
Why on “Earth” would you trust the Liberals with Climate Change ?.
c@tmomma, phoenixRED
You opened a flood of questions. Too many. But thanks. 🙂
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 12:21 pm
Why won’t Labor ask Proven vote winner Kristina Keneally to take up the mantle in Bennelong ?
__________________
True. She would probably help Labor more in a marginal seat where her star power can help out. All that wattage used in a safe seat seems a bit wasted.
“Vote for change. Vote independent.”
I strongly suspect that P1 only says this (again and again) to appear contrarian and therefore interesting. Sorry, but it’s not working. You come across as a vapid attention-seeker.
Without naming a specific Independent candidate, and simply say “Vote independent” is vacuous. Voting for an Independent simply because they present themselves as “independent” of the major parties is just a circular argument.
Labor are following a deliberate strategy of not releasing the bulk of their policy until the election campaign, and have been totally open about the fact that this is what they are doing. This is also typically the norm rather than the exception for modern oppositions, especially the successful ones.
I would also say it is incorrect to suggest federal Labor are just sitting back and letting the government fall over. They are out there day after day criticizing and drawing people’s attention to what the government is doing, and using messaging designed to reinforce the increasingly negative public perception of Scomo, and it seems to be working. This is again, far more the norm than the exception for oppositions.
It is true that Albo’s personal ratings are not… ideal. Would a more comprehensive and reformist platform change that? Maybe. Maybe it would make things worse. Given the high undecideds, his low approval seems to be the result of obscurity more than dislike, and it remains to be seen how they break once we’re in the campaign proper.
There are legitimate criticisms to be made of Albo’s leadership, particularly during 2019-2020 (I think he and his team have been (mostly) on-point this year, however), but holding back on policy announcements and keeping the public focus on government screw-ups is just SOP for oppositions.
I’m getting pretty tired of Quoll’s venomous and repetitive “dribble” too.
Kakuru says:
Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 12:37 pm
“Vote for change. Vote independent.”
I strongly suspect that P1 only says this (again and again) to appear contrarian and therefore interesting. Sorry, but it’s not working. You come across as a vapid attention-seeker.
____________________________
Why do you feel the need to attack P1 in this manner? Does her failure to conform to stooge behaviour justify your insults?
Liesl Von Trapp:
“She has run in Bennelong before, she could run again?”
Despite the westward drift in the electoral boundaries of Bennelong, and profound demographic changes, this is still a VERY tough seat for Labor. I think Kristina Keneally has earned the right to contest a more winnable Labor seat.
The Coalition have won the last 3 elections with no policies. Dont think Labor should be too bothered about being too ambitious with any. If they going to go with any make them all positive/aspirational to the public.
There are a number of people here who seem to have “template” comments. Maybe their comment box comes with extra options and configurable fields? 😛
Paul Karp
@Paul_Karp
Think I’m going to show off my strong leadership by doing an exclusive interview complaining that the private sector has to fix climate change because my policy does next to nothing.
🙂
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2021/11/12/can-do-capitalism-subsidises-600-million-gas-plant/
Best explanation of Smokos can-do.
Sounds like fighting over the spoils of opposition to me Kakaru.
U need to win seats like Bennelong to form govt after all!
R(eff) in Greater Sydney = 1.19
Just a note for those who seem to think that further vaccination will prevent covid from “going through the roof”…
Liesl Von Trapp
“U need to win seats like Bennelong to form govt after all!”
There are far better prospects for Labor in NSW than Bennelong.
Lizziesays:
Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 12:39 pm
I’m getting pretty tired of Quoll’s venomous and repetitive “dribble” too.
_____________________
Did you catch this gem from yesterday ?. If this is not dribble I don’t know what is.
For non Victorians Bert received a VICTORIAN State funeral.
Laughtongsays:
Friday, November 12, 2021 at 6:03 pm
ScoMo would also have been annoyed that Dan was introduced ahead of him at the funeral. I was listening on the radio
Bennelong only comes into play if the election was a landslide.
Bennelong is to the ALP what Maribyrnong is to the Liberals.
Looks winnable but isn’t.
Kakaru, you are right. About seven is the number and two or three of those are in WA. The ALP needs to focus on winning the easy ones, seats like Bennelong can wait till the following election.
What about Banks? Similar margin to Bennelong – is this one you don’t want to try too hard on too?
“ScoMo would also have been annoyed that Dan was introduced ahead of him at the funeral…”
Not something I’m exercised about – it won’t make it onto my list. I expect that there’s a protocol here. Dan Andrews is the host, while Scott Morrison is a guest.
Taylormade @ #170 Saturday, November 13th, 2021 – 1:05 pm
Taylor Made.
That was written in the context of something else about the funeral, and ScoMo wearing an Australian flag mask – not appropriate.
OK it was a Victorian State Funeral, but ScoMo in most circumstances would outrank Dan. That protocol would also, to my thinking, apply to a funeral.
Just caught my interest as the introductions seemed a little random.
There are over twenty coalition seats that are more marginal than Bennelong. In the last election only four booths returned a Labor majority vote and one of those was a line ball result.
Edit: changed one word for greater clarity.
Kakuru @ #157 Saturday, November 13th, 2021 – 12:37 pm
I say it because it cuts through the usual pointless PB partisan blather – something you clearly just demonstrated. Thanks for that.
If you can’t even be bothered to find out what policies your local independents support, then it should come as no surprise to anyone that you apparently don’t even know your own parties policies.
Extraordinary – Bennelongs not a contest. Next you’ll say banks , Reid are not worth contesting?
Sort of commentary one expects from a party that has become accustomed to being the long term opposition.
U.S. COVID update: Many states reporting backlogs from Veterans Day; no update from California
– New cases: 132,486 …………………………. – New deaths: 2,124
– In hospital: 45,716 (-236)
– In ICU: 11,632 (+2)
782,933 total deaths now
Here’s Antony Green’s pendulum for the 2022 Federal election: https://antonygreen.com.au/2022-federal-electoral-pendulum/
(need to scroll down).
There’s not much low-hanging fruit for Labor, just 3 Coalition seats on margins under 3%. There’s a further 10 with margins between 3 and 5%. Meanwhile, there are 12 Labor seats on margins under 3%, 4 of which are under 1%.
Of course, as with all elections, there’ll be a couple of unexpected gains and losses, plus maybe expected gains not eventuating.
C@tmomma @ #143 Saturday, November 13th, 2021 – 12:02 pm
Maybe 9th … let’s move off board. I’ll contact D&M, and happy for you and she to share my email.
ItzaDream @ #181 Saturday, November 13th, 2021 – 1:29 pm
Okely dokely. 🙂
Lars
Bennelong is a safe Liberal seat.
This is why the focus on the TPP is misleading because some seats TPP makes them look more marginal or safer than they really are.
Banks is trending towards the Liberals and it will become safer if the AEC moves the northern end of Cook into Banks and Reid is a marginal seat trending to the Liberals but is more winnable than Bennelong.
And now the colossal fossil is asking business to address climate change – and not to request subsidies ( but tax cuts and other tax adjustments are another matter)
The last I looked Shareholders (including Fund Managers on our behalf) were forcing Companies to ethical responses to climate change (and on a raft of other compliance matters)
Where has the colossal fossil been over the period that Fund Manages have had ethical fund options available to investors?
Then again the colossal fossil subscribes to God making babies
Liesl von Trapp
“Extraordinary – Bennelongs not a contest. Next you’ll say banks , Reid are not worth contesting?”
Not so extraordinary, if you take time to think about it. Reid is on margin of 3.2%, Banks on 6.3%, and Bennelong on 6.9%. In my mind, it would be “extraordinary” to treat these 3 seats the same way.
Observer
The same government has been working against shareholders pushing business on climate change.
Me @ 1.17 pm
Where I say majority vote, I should probably more correctly say majority 2PP result .
Yep, there have been a number of times that the Coalition has caught wind of and publicly castigated people (banks, funds, investors, etc) divesting from fossil fuels and investing in renewables.
I guess they won’t be doing that anymore?
These seats maybe up for grabs in 2022?
Coalition Seats (76) Labor Seats (69)
Margin Electorate (State) Margin Electorate (State)
0.4 LIB Bass (TAS) 0.2 ALP Macquarie (NSW)
0.5 LIB Chisholm (VIC) 0.6 ALP Lilley (QLD)
1.4 LIB Boothby (SA) 0.8 ALP Eden-Monaro (NSW)
3.1 LIB Braddon (TAS) 0.9 ALP Cowan (WA)
3.2 LIB Reid (NSW) 1.0 ALP Corangamite (VIC)
3.2 LIB Swan (WA) 1.2 ALP Blair (QLD)
3.3 LIB Longman (QLD) 1.5 ALP Dobell (NSW)
3.7 LIB Higgins (VIC) 1.9 ALP Moreton (QLD)
4.2 LIB Leichhardt (QLD) 2.6 ALP Gilmore (NSW)
4.2 LIB Robertson (NSW) 2.7 ALP Dunkley (VIC)
4.6 LIB Casey (VIC) 2.8 ALP Greenway (NSW)
4.6 LIB Dickson (QLD) 2.9 ALP Griffith (QLD)
4.7 LIB Deakin (VIC) 3.0 ALP Hunter (NSW)
4.9 LIB Brisbane (QLD) 3.1 ALP Solomon (NT)
5.0 LIB Lindsay (NSW) 3.2 ALP Perth (WA)
5.2 LIB Pearce (WA) 3.5 ALP Parramatta (NSW)
steve davis says:
Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 1:43 pm
These seats maybe up for grabs in 2022?
__________________
They couldn’t possibly think they could win Casey or Deakin.
A sleeper issue may well be higher education and the circumstances the colossal fossil and the colossal fossil party he leads has delivered to our Universities (including in regards Jobkeeper)
How many is this issue impacting on (noting people vote thru their pockets)?
Nath
The Liberals are more worried about Deakin than Casey but they will probably hold both.
Touching US Veterans Day post from United States Senator Tammy Duckworth ( American politician and retired Army National Guard lieutenant colonel )
Today is my Alive Day, the 17th anniversary of the day I probably should’ve died in a dusty field in Iraq after our Blackhawk was shot out of the sky—but didn’t.
When that RPG tore through the cockpit of the helicopter I was co-piloting, it took my legs, partial use of my right arm and nearly my life. I wouldn’t have lasted the hour if it weren’t for my buddies who refused to leave me behind.
My buddies thought I was dead—I was quite literally in pieces.
They risked their own lives to bring my body back to my family.
From the moment I woke up in Walter Reed 11 days later, I vowed to find a way to repay them as well as all those who sacrifice so much for our nation.
So while I can’t fly combat missions anymore or help drag Soldiers from a burning Blackhawk if the worst should strike again, I can use my current role—serving no longer from the cockpit but the Senate—to ensure our Armed Forces are the strongest they can be.
Because to me, true patriotism will always be how we honor the sacrifices those in uniform have made for the rest of us. Not just on Veterans Day, but every other day of the year, too.
It seems like when u take away the seats PB is prepared to give away – the best Albo can achieve is minority government?
What a compelling rationale for a change of government.
Well this is a treat. Video footage of the last Bludger (Labor stooge faction) get-together in Sydney. Which one is sprocket?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGn_rH7LejI
Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 1:53 pm
Nath
The Liberals are more worried about Deakin than Casey but they will probably hold both.
________
They are just not volatile areas. I’d expect seats further away on the pendulum to swing more.
Lars
People on both sides have been saying for months that NSW wont see much change.
Why won’t Labor ask Proven vote winner Kristina Keneally to take up the mantle in Bennelong ?
She has run in Bennelong before, she could run again?
@Lars Von Trier
You seem to have an obsession with Labor preselection’s. Why don’t you have the same interest with Greens preselections?
Oh, that’s right it’s because nobody cares about them. They get no media coverage because they are about as interesting as a dead tree falling down in a forest.