Sooner or later

Odds lengthen on an early election, John Alexander calls it a day in Bennelong, doubts over the passage of the government’s voter identification bill, and more.

A consensus has locked in over the past week behind the notion that the federal election will not be until May, with John Kehoe of the Financial Review reporting public servants have been told to cut short summer holiday plans to help prepare a pre-election budget in April. The government will then be able to “fight the poll on an expected economic bounce-back from COVID-19”.

Also:

• Liberal member John Alexander has announced he will not seek re-election in his Sydney seat of Bennelong, which he recovered for the Liberals in 2010 following John Howard’s historic defeat in 2007. The Sydney Morning Herald reports contenders for the preselection are likely to include Gisele Kapterian, a former chief-of-staff to Michaelia Cash and current executive at software company Salesforce, and City of Sydney councillor Craig Chung. Kapterian was mentioned as a possible challenger to Alexander’s preselection earlier in the year.

• The federal government seems to be struggling to get the numbers it will need to pass its voter identification bill through the Senate before the election. With One Nation for and Labor, the Greens and independent Senator Rex Patrick vehemently opposed, the swing votes in the Senate are Centre Alliance Senator Stirling Griff and independent Jacqui Lambie. While Griff supports the idea in principle, the Financial Review reports that Lambie and the Centre Alliance’s lower house member, Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie, has criticised the short time frame and the government’s prioritisation of the matter over issues including the establishment a federal integrity commission. Independent MP Bob Katter added to the momentum against the measure when he declared it “blatantly racist” due to its disproportionate impact on indigenous voters.

• In the period between his drink driving misadventure a fortnight ago and announcement at the start of this week that he would bow out at the next election, Tim Smith’s Victorian state seat of Kew was the subject of a comprehensive poll by Redbridge Group which had Liberal on 39%, Labor on 31% and the Greens on 12%, suggesting a close contest between Liberal and Labor at the final count to be determined by the unknown quantity of independent and small party preferences. However, the poll also recorded a 40.2% “very unfavourable” rating for state Labor, along with 44.9% for Smith and 49.5% for one of his backers, Tony Abbott. The poll was conducted November 4 to 7 from a sample of 920.

• The Liberals have confirmed candidates for two Hunter region seats that swung heavily against Labor in 2019. In Paterson, where the margin was cut from 10.7% to 5.0% in 2019, the candidate will be Brooke Vitnell, a family law solicitor and former ministerial staffer to Paul Fletcher and Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells. Shortland will again be contested by Nell McGill, a commercial litigator at Sparke Helmore Lawyers, who cut the margin from 9.9% to 4.4% in 2019.

• It has come to my attention that US pollster Morning Consult conducts a weekly tracking poll of approval and disapproval for 13 world leaders including Scott Morrison, who has lately fallen into net negative territory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,037 comments on “Sooner or later”

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  1. Adam Klasfeld @KlasfeldReports

    “Since my first day in office, I have promised [DOJ] employees that together we would show the American people by word and deed that the Department adheres to the rule of law, follows the facts and the law, and pursues equal justice under the law.”

    — AG Garland on Bannon charges

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Here’s a Saturday Special for you!

    Rob Harris reckons the Prime Minister is banking on Australians taking less notice of his misadventures in Rome and Glasgow and more of freedom from 18 months of rolling lockdowns.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/campaigning-pm-believes-he-s-found-a-miraculous-middle-ground-20211112-p5989l.html
    Phil Coorey writes that speculation is building within the Coalition that former cabinet minister Christian Porter will not recontest the next election, a move that would pave the way for a female candidate in his West Australian seat of Pearce.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/doubts-increase-over-christian-porter-s-future-20211112-p598bu
    Scott Morrison takes misinformation mainstream and dares Labor to offer more than nothing, writes Sarah Martin. She says voters don’t like Morrison, that much is clear, but the Labor party can’t afford to rely on the prime minister’s character to carry them into office. In fact, they should possibly fear it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/13/scott-morrison-seems-intent-on-taking-misinformation-mainstream
    Michelle Grattan reckons Scott Morrison has been caught in a catch-22 over the issue of his integrity.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-scott-morrison-caught-in-catch-22-over-the-issue-of-his-integrity-171750
    Paul Bongiorno examines Morrison’s “trust pitch”
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2021/11/13/scott-morrisons-trust-pitch/163672200012877
    John Lord asks, “How can we trust a liar?”
    https://theaimn.com/how-can-we-trust-a-liar/
    Zoe Daniel thinks sincerity is the missing piece in our political landscape.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2021/11/13/zoe-daniel-politics-sincerity/
    Peter Hartcher offers his critique of Keating’s NPC appearance.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/king-keating-sticks-it-to-the-world-20211112-p598je.html
    In defence of Keating disparagingly calling out some SMH reporters, its editorial says, “We’re not the ning-nongs here but we’ll refrain from hurling insults back at Mr Keating, not least because he’s better at it than we are.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/keating-v-the-ning-nongs-in-the-debate-on-china-20211112-p598hw.html
    Australia should take notice of the surprise US-China joint announcement on climate change. Whether tokenism or substantial, it sends a message that Beijing and Washington are talking, negotiating and engaging at the highest levels, with a virtual meeting coming up between the presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden. “And where is Australia?” , asks Paul Kelly. “Nowhere”, he says.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/china-climate-and-subs-deals-loom-as-traps-for-australia/news-story/069b42e9c2a7656d73a66afeb1dc5fe4
    As US-China relations take a positive turn and Xi Jinping cements his status as leader for life, Australia risks being left out in the cold, writes Michael Smith.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/xi-warms-to-biden-but-morrison-still-in-the-deep-freeze-20211111-p5986m
    Mike Seccombe reveals that emails show the man hired to review Scott Morrison’s climate model helped Angus Taylor with last election’s climate scare.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/11/13/the-man-behind-scott-morrisons-climate-panic/163672200012870
    Australia will remain one of the world’s biggest fossil fuel exporters in 2050, shipping almost $100 billion a year in coal and gas, according to modelling done for the Morrison government’s net zero plan, explains Jacob Greber.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/australia-will-have-a-coal-and-gas-economy-beyond-2050-20211112-p598j5
    Shane Wright believes that a lift in inflation, rising mortgage rates and flat wages growth are combing to make the next election a battle over cost-of-living policies.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/cost-of-living-election-awaits-as-fixed-mortgages-start-to-climb-20211112-p598ed.html
    An inflation rebound means interest rates could rise sooner than expected. But excessively cheap money is already doing more harm than good, argues the AFR.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-doesn-t-need-the-genie-of-cheap-money-20211111-p5980c
    A pandemic, the global supply chain in crisis, unprecedented consumer demand for goods and services and fears of a cold winter in the northern hemisphere have coalesced to form a “perfect storm” for retailers that will see consumers cough up more for everyday items from furniture to petrol to Playstations, explains Jessica Yun.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/from-petrol-to-playstations-australians-gear-up-for-price-rises-20211103-p595o3.html
    Despite the dangers of campaigning on electric cars, the PM attempted just such a thing this week. His derision of Bill Shorten’s 2019 policies made perfect grenades for Labor, explains Michelle Grattan.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/wedged-by-his-own-policy-choices-pm-s-can-do-capitalism-is-interventionism-in-disguise-20211112-p598b4.html
    Shane Wright reports that large multinational firms would pay up to $4.5 billion more in tax and reveal far more about their inner workings in the Australian market while penalising promoters of tax avoidance schemes under a suite of policies from the Greens. Today Adam Bandt will declare the “theft” of money by multinationals from Australian taxpayers and the government has to stop so-called significant global entities would be denied a tax deduction for royalties for use of intellectual property within Australia.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-release-corporate-tax-policies-to-raise-extra-4-5bn-per-year-20211112-p598dx.html
    Ambitions to kill coal and toughen 2030 emissions targets have been watered down in latest draft of the COP26 declaration, which provides the blueprint for international action to tackle climate change, reports Bevan Shields.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/glasgow-cop26-summit-nears-deadlock-core-1-5-degree-goal-on-life-support-20211111-p5989a.html
    Zac Crellin tells us wow the Australian government was shamed and embarrassed on the COP26 world stage.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/science/environment/2021/11/12/cop-26-australia-humiliated/
    Robyn Eckersley tells us how Morrison trashed brand Australia at COP26 with his Australian Way™.
    https://theconversation.com/the-australian-way-how-morrison-trashed-brand-australia-at-cop26-171670
    Graham Readfearn tells us that experts have panned the Coalition net-zero modelling that allows the gas sector to grow.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/12/pure-spin-experts-pan-coalition-net-zero-modelling-that-allows-gas-sector-to-grow
    Modelling underpinning Australia’s target of net zero emissions by 2050 has been lashed by climate groups as falling short of the government’s own goal. It anticipates Australia’s emissions reducing 85 per cent by 2050, with “further technological improvements” relied on to make up the gap.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2021/11/13/net-zero-modelling-australia/?breaking_live_scroll=1
    It looks like economic modelling, but the analysis of the Coalition’s net zero Australian Way plan is more a collection of numbers and jargon, says Shane Wright.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/this-is-not-economic-modelling-on-net-zero-it-s-adjacent-to-it-20211112-p598hd.html
    A South Australian aquaculture project to grow livestock feed from algae will drastically reduce the amount of methane produced by cows. But experts warn the Morrison government is using scientific solutions to greenwash the meat industry, writes Max Opray.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/11/13/could-seaweed-diet-cows-really-reduce-methane-emissions/163672200012874
    Rob Harris reports that Scott Morrison said he believes the world will beat climate change in the same way it has responded to other crises and warned against adopting the “defeatist” attitudes of climate activists and foreign leaders who say, “we’ll all be ruined”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/upbeat-scott-morrison-calls-on-businesses-to-step-up-to-the-climate-challenge-20211112-p598ab.html
    Tim Flannery and Simon Bradshaw describe Australia as an embarrassing handbrake on COP’s nobler ambitions.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australia-an-embarrassing-handbrake-on-cop-s-nobler-ambitions-20211112-p598aj.html
    Australia will let emergency visas expire for those still in Afghanistan, as it emerges the US was consulted on evacuation a month before Kabul’s ‘unexpected’ fall, reports Karen Middleton.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/11/13/australia-allow-visas-trapped-afghans-expire/163672200012866
    Greg Sheridan bleats that democracy is in crisis as woke concerns trump real-world problems.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/democracy-in-crisis-as-woke-concerns-trump-realworld-problems/news-story/8d85825130f4fef767393b1d8e20c159
    Anne Davies tells us that, backed by Climate 200’s $2m war chest, independent challengers are circling Coalition seats.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/13/backed-by-climate-200s-2m-war-chest-independent-challengers-circle-coalition-seats
    Public servants’ independence continues to be eroded by the use of consultants, closer control of communications and weakening of checks and balances, writes a concerned Andrew Potger.
    https://johnmenadue.com/the-insidious-politicisation-of-the-public-service/
    Gerard Henderson’s weekly whine goes to criticising the journalists who asked Macron that question.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/texts-lies-and-leading-questions-a-matter-of-context/news-story/1e4235167a5795a57a87d4862a793043
    Alexandra Smith reports on the stances taken by a number of MPs at the commencement of the debate on the NSW assisted dying bill.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/not-hope-but-hopelessness-perrottet-outlines-opposition-to-assisted-dying-20211112-p598gx.html
    According to Dana Daniel, the federal government is preparing to shake up how Australians visit the GP, with a plan to get patients to register with a single medical practice. Under the voluntary patient registration scheme to launch in July, doctors could get incentive payments to improve patients’ health, in addition to Medicare rebates, with telehealth restricted to those who sign up.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australians-encouraged-to-register-with-a-gp-under-new-funding-model-20211111-p59858.html
    New figures show the Coalition’s rollout of the National Broadband Network has cost almost twice what was projected – for an inferior system, explains Laurie Patton.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/11/13/the-real-cost-the-bungled-nbn-rollout/163672200012876
    At the NRMA Kennedy awards on Thursday night, held in the grand ballroom at Royal Randwick in Sydney, the Australian Financial Review’s Michael Roddan made a quip about the Kennedys being the “Bogan Walkleys” while he picked up a trophy for financial journalism, writes Amanda Meade in her weekly media roundup.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/commentisfree/2021/nov/12/kennedy-awards-miss-the-joke-but-peta-credlin-and-john-laws-become-the-punchline
    Australia’s defence priorities have oscillated between protecting the country from invasion and joining foreign allies abroad in the hope of future support. Scott Morrison has opted for the latter, following a map drawn up by John Howard, argues Brian Toohey.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/11/13/how-fear-abandonment-informs-australias-defence-strategy/163672200012873
    Mary Ward tells us that about 57,000 people in NSW did not come back for a second COVID-19 vaccine as scheduled, prompting health authorities to stress it is not too late to complete the course.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/more-than-57-000-have-not-come-back-for-second-dose-20211110-p597qm.html
    Bri Li explains the uneven justice of Australia’s defamation laws.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2021/11/13/the-uneven-justice-australias-defamation-laws/163672200012865
    Harley Dennet reports that Bridget McKenzie wants the government to adopt a population-shifting plan aiming for half of Australia’s future population growth to occur outside capital cities, incentivised by $100 billion in government spending directed to the regions through the decade to 2030.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7508565/mckenzies-decentralisation-plan-20-takes-shape/?cs=14329
    Victoria has become one of the most heavily policed states in Australia after a two decade-long law and order rivalry between the ALP and Coalition helped build the country’s largest law enforcement organisation. The state’s war on crime has seen spending on police, courts and prisons grow at double or triple the rate of other states and territories over the past decade, with Victoria now arresting and jailing people at levels not seen since the 19th century.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/thick-blue-line-victoria-builds-the-country-s-biggest-police-force-20211109-p59767.html
    According to Calla Wahlquist, police in New South Wales argued against a proposed public health order that would have allowed vulnerable Aboriginal communities to choose to lockdown in the event of a coronavirus outbreak.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/12/nsw-police-opposed-plan-to-let-aboriginal-communities-lock-down-in-event-of-covid-outbreak
    A Coalition senator has threatened to withhold his vote from the government due to his position on COVID-19 vaccine mandates. Liberal senator Alex Antic publicly pledged to not support government legislation until those who don’t get the vaccine are “given protection from discrimination”.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2021/11/12/alex-antic-coalition-vote/
    Covid cases are surging in Europe and America is in denial about what lies in store for it writes eric Topol.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/12/covid-cases-surging-europe-america-denial
    A Sydney lawyer who unsuccessfully challenged the NSW COVID-19 vaccine mandate has had his practising certificate suspended, after posts on his law firm’s social media accounts claimed the vaccine decision “basically said it is ok to kill anyone you like”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/lawyer-who-brought-anti-vaccine-case-has-practising-certificate-suspended-20211112-p598ja.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    David Pope

    Alan Moir

    John Shakespeare


    Matt Davidson

    Andrew Dyson

    Matt Golding




    Jon Kudelka

    Jim Pavlidis


    Mark David



    Peter Broelman


    Leak

    From the US








  3. lizzie @ #46 Saturday, November 13th, 2021 – 8:29 am

    According to Sarah Martin in The Guardian, Labor’s problem in countering LNP’s do-nothing policy will be that anything at all that they propose will be labelled as “big spending on your taxes”, or “more interfering in your lives”.

    And as Shane Wright, I think it was, pointed out this week, no one has taken a greater share of Tax/GDP than the Coalition government over the last 10 years. So they are lying, again, when they say Labor will tax you more.

  4. Former Trump strategist Steve Bannon has been charged with contempt of Congress after refusing to testify about the US Capitol riot on 6 January.

    The right-wing media executive had been summoned to testify about what he knew about plans for the riot.

    His lawyers argued that his communications involving the former president were protected.

    Mr Bannon, 67, could now face up to a year in prison and a $100,000 (£74,522) fine.

    This is the first such indictment to come out of the committee’s probe of the 6 January riots.

    Lawmakers are considering similar contempt charges against Mr Trump’s former chief of staff Mark Meadows, who also refused to comply with a subpoena.

  5. It looks like the Sunny Uplands vision of the economy that Morrison and Frydenburg will want to push out to the election have already started to be mugged by reality. Unemployment up sharply this week. Fixed Rates for mortgages beginning their inexorable climb upwards. Inflation gathering steam. Wages going nowhere. And people are beginning to notice:

    BOQ Group chief economist Peter Munckton said while consumer confidence had improved over recent weeks as states re-opened, it was evident shoppers were increasingly worried about inflation pressures.

    “Households have noted a bit of a decline in their current financial situation, likely a result of higher inflation (notably petrol prices),” he said.

    … Shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers said the increase in domestic inflation, and the flat lining of wages, was increasing the pressure on ordinary Australians.

    “Two of the big pressures are actually petrol prices – people are getting absolutely smashed at the bowser – and construction costs, if you’re trying to get a reno done or something like that. Those are the pressures that working families feel,” he said.

    “The other most important thing I think, inflation is obviously a crucial measure in the economy but what actually matters is whether people’s wages can keep up with that inflation.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/cost-of-living-election-awaits-as-fixed-mortgages-start-to-climb-20211112-p598ed.html

  6. Don Winslow @donwinslow

    Steve Bannon is not going to jail.

    He will be arrested, make immediate bail and will be free within HOURS.

    None of this will compel him to testify or hand over anything.

    This is what they wanted. For it to enter THE COURTS.

    This is why the year wasted will be LETHAL.

    Please understand that Steve Bannon’s indictment only BEGINS a LEGAL PROCESS.

    Even when arrested he will likely be immediately released on bail to BEGIN that LEGAL PROCESS.

    There is only one year before MID-TERMS.

    Trump has successfully delayed multiple legal issues for YEARS.

  7. And as Shane Wright, I think it was, pointed out this week, no one has taken a greater share of Tax/GDP than the Coalition government over the last 10 years. So they are lying, again, when they say Labor will tax you more.

    They have also delivered less from a taxpayer’s perspective.

    e.g. “The government spent $89 billion on ‘Jobkeeper’; how much did you get?”

  8. anything at all that they propose will be labelled as “big spending on your taxes”, or “more interfering in your lives”.
    ————————
    Look, the LNP and their media frontmen/women will throw everything at the ALP. It doesn’t have to be true – it doesn’t even have to be remotely believable anymore.

    They will attack ALP policy, they will claim the ALP don’t have a policy, they will claim the ALP have a secret policy. They will make as much noise as need be to cover how big an incompetent, stagnant, self-centred, potentially corrupt joke of a government they have been for over 8 years. Pissing away taxpayer money to rich mates and electoral bribes, stuffing up international relationships, and governing for themselves, not for the good of our countries future.

    Every answer the ALP give to LNP claims should start with those statements.

  9. Questions about “Where’s Jen?” must have hit a tender spot (does Scotty have one?) when his response is to put an old family photo up on his Facebook page.

  10. “The government spent $89 billion on ‘Jobkeeper’; how much did you get?”

    Based on Google’s figures, that’s $6000 per taxpayer.

  11. “Colossal fossil”

    There is the labelling of this pm and the political parties he leads

    The Liberal Party are experts at labelling, including because they have media support

    The latest that red represents Labor versus blue for Liberal (what colour ties do the news presenters wear, so messaging)

    So “red shirts” (noting the GOP is defined by red)

    Labor needs a go to phrase – repeated and repeated to fight on the same ground as the Liberal Party and their supporters

    And to me, the colossal fossil award Australia has been awarded it exactly it

    Australia has a colossal fossil for a pm

    Australia has a colossal fossil of a government

    So “this colossal fossil” in every response

    The award is well deserved

  12. Morrison/Coorey
    ” the economic uncertainty that is going to come with the post-pandemic period is very real,” he said”
    Morrison/Coorey actually mean “the political uncertainty that is going to come with a on-going pandemic period is very real”
    Morrison/Coorey looking further into this statement actually mean” because of the on-going economic and political fiasco as a result of Morrison’s poor economic and political responses to the on- pandemic, another attempt will be made via an early budget to reverse the worsening political prospects of the most incompetent, deceitful and divisive PM that Australia has had to endure.
    The silent majority of Australian voters generally now response to anything from Morrison’s/Coorey’s mouths with a nonchalant WTF!
    Morrison is now famous for his malarkey infused political curry, his lies and that stupid grin.
    Six months is a long time to wait to “banish the bullshitter” to the Shire for life!

  13. Based on Google’s figures, that’s $6000 per taxpayer.

    To clarify (since I couldn’t edit), $89 billion spent on “Jobkeeper” divided by 14.7 million taxpayers means that each taxpayer paid $6000.

    Did you get your $6000 worth?

  14. Victoria records 1,221 new local COVID-19 cases and four deaths

    There are now 16,671 active cases of the virus in Victoria, and 407 people have died in the state during the current Delta outbreak.

    There are now 405 people in hospital with COVID-19 in Victoria, of whom 77 are in intensive care and 51 are on a ventilator.

    The new cases were identified from 60,818 test results received yesterday.

    There were 10,708 vaccine doses administered at state-run sites yesterday, and more vaccinations at GP clinics and other venues.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-13/victoria-records-new-covid-cases-and-deaths/100618038

  15. Mrs Morrison is an asset for the PM. That we haven’t seen much of her in recent times might suggest she isn’t keen for herself and her children to be dragged into the show. Because damn sure Morrison will want to take advantage of her appeal. Or perhaps not wanting to limit the impact she may have in a campaign by overuse during the term.

    we will see more of her between now and the election. Some more happy family stories in the Murdoch press, morning TV and mags and socials. I don’t really have a problem with it if it is low key and done with some sensitivity – here is the PM, he has a family, this is who they are. Unfortunately, Murdoch, morning tv and Morrison himself don’t do ‘low key, sensitivity’.

  16. Big Apple – Big Crime.

    C@tmommasays:
    Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 9:29 am
    SK,
    ‘Christmas with the Morrisons’.

    Howabout, Charcoal with the Morrisons.

  17. Paul Bongiorno examines Morrison’s “trust pitch”

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2021/11/13/scott-morrisons-trust-pitch/163672200012877

    Bongo reckons Morrison’s past utterances on the Hydrogen Economy and Electric Vehicle policy have come back to haunt him, and that may be so.

    But most of the clamour has come from the very same journalists who will soon solemnly tell us how clever his lies are, as they put Morrison in the box seat to win the election, and that if Labor seeks to do anything concrete Morrison will monster them and us with more lies and exaggerations, which the same journalists will dutifully repeat. If Albo can’t tell bigger lies than Morrison, they will argue, what’s the point of electing him?

    Most commentators are STILL only talking about lies and counter-lies as regards Global Warming. Vanishingly few are discussing or even considering why we need policies to prevent it. It’s all about the tactics, not the goals.

    Bongo reckons the public will reject Morrison’s chutzpah, but is he right? Apart from the fact that the mug punter can get used to anything, including lying (remember when 180 COVID cases a day was “a national emergency”?), the public has been conditioned to see the essential question in politics as “Who can tell the biggest lie?” When lying is actually celebrated by those who commentate on politics, lying is the only game in town.

    Thus, telling the truth becomes a fault. Governments who want to govern, pass laws, lead the way, become Pollyannas, too gullible and naive to trust with high office.

    It’s going to be a horrible election.

  18. Sleeping Giants Oz
    @slpng_giants_oz

    You can go through all the yadda yadda of Peter van Onselen’s musings in Murdoch’s Australian but the kicker comes at the end where once again the efforts & success of State and Territory governments and individuals against Covid are being assigned to Scott Morrison:

  19. Some mention was made earlier of the declining influence of the Murdoch press.
    Another side to that is in our area morning delivery (of all the papers) has been appalling and getting worse.
    For those working folk, they would have no hope of seeing the paper before they left home, and yesterday would have returned to a soggy mess.
    Printed newspapers are in decline.
    The Age online is pretty good, but the Herald Sun website is very poor, without considering the biased content.


  20. phoenixREDsays:
    Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 8:59 am
    Don Winslow @donwinslow

    Steve Bannon is not going to jail.

    He will be arrested, make immediate bail and will be free within HOURS.

    None of this will compel him to testify or hand over anything.

    This is what they wanted. For it to enter THE COURTS.

    This is why the year wasted will be LETHAL.

    Please understand that Steve Bannon’s indictment only BEGINS a LEGAL PROCESS.

    Even when arrested he will likely be immediately released on bail to BEGIN that LEGAL PROCESS.

    There is only one year before MID-TERMS.

    Trump has successfully delayed multiple legal issues for YEARS.

    Thanks PhoenixRED for the info. So according to Winslow a crook like Bannon will posts bail and avoids jail. Way to go America. No wonder there were negligent prosecitions regarding GFC fraud

    Garland ; “show the American people by word and deed that the Department adheres to the rule of law, follows the facts and the law, and pursues equal justice under the law.”

  21. C@t
    Take a drive with the Morrison’s in their new EV….. to a carpark built by the LNP?

    Clay shooting in Wagga with the Morrison’s?

    Daggy dad at the kids netball? That’s my gig! Although I shoot for the dapper dad, I seem to only get the outside of hoop.

  22. While spring cleaning, I discovered a Harvey Norman receipt from 2010.

    The receipt paper is 16cm wide, with ye olde feed holes on the left hand side – non-removable – and nasty grip teeth marks every four holes. Each sheet is 21.5cm tall, and has the Harvey Norman logo “watermarked” in the middle.

    It was printed on a dot matrix printer capable of at least four different font sizes (including bold face.)

    “E&OE.” (Errors and omissions excepted – legalese.)
    “V23.02” (Obviously very important.)

    It made my day. 😀



  23. I don’t want to sound alarmist but I think the metaphorical asteroid has already hot the earth. We are watching a slow rolling destruction in front of our eyes.

    We are reaching a situation more like in movie ‘Deep Impact rather than ‘Armageddon’ where Bruce Willis saves the day by blasting of the asteroid by sacrificing his life. Fortunately the second scenario is still possible but it involves spending a lot of money and making lot of sacrifices.

  24. Morning all. Thanks for the rundown BK. Good to see some journalists are finally openly reporting Morrison’s shameless lying. Sadly not in the Murdoch press though, which remains a truth-free zone.

    I have been looking at the “modeling” released by the Australian “government” in support of its climate “plan”. It has already been deservedly criticised as merely a list of fanciful assumptions. True. It is the modelling for people who have no interest in climate action.

    It has also been deservedly criticised as the work of a bunch of biased individuals, including former resource economist Brian Fisher, gas industry shills infiltrated into relevant departments, and McKinsey. Fun fact – Brian Fisher studied Agricultural Science and did a PhD in Agricultural Economics. He has never done a degree in formal Economics. Expert on climate economics? No.

    My most severe criticism is something that hasn’t been raised – the government modelling is incomplete. It deals almost entirely with electricity and the gas sector, hoping to justify a huge windfall gain in hydrogen production for gas companies. There is literally no treatment of the agriculture and transport sectors, even though these are also critical to meeting a net zero target. There are assumptions the problem swill magically solve themselves, even though current policy and trend shows no sign of that happening.
    https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/November%202021/document/australias-long-term-emissions-reduction-plan-modelling.pdf

  25. The latest that red represents Labor versus blue for Liberal (what colour ties do the news presenters wear, so messaging)

    So “red shirts” (noting the GOP is defined by red)

    For some odd reason I thought “red shirts” related to the t-shirts Labor campaign workers wore.

    https://ibb.co/QFXQZh6

  26. Some people here need a reality check …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/09/scott-morrisons-approval-rating-at-lowest-point-since-aftermath-of-black-summer-bushfires

    Scott Morrison’s approval rating is at it’s lowest level since the bushfire debacle … and yet he is still more popular than Anthony Albanese by a significant margin, both in overall approval and as preferred PM.

    It’s time for Labor to stop indulging in the fantasy that they can slide into office by doing nothing.

    Being crude about it, it is time for Labor to either shit, or get off the pot.


  27. laughtongsays:
    Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 9:36 am
    Some mention was made earlier of the declining influence of the Murdoch press.
    Another side to that is in our area morning delivery (of all the papers) has been appalling and getting worse.
    For those working folk, they would have no hope of seeing the paper before they left home, and yesterday would have returned to a soggy mess.
    Printed newspapers are in decline.
    The Age online is pretty good, but the Herald Sun website is very poor, without considering the biased content.

    laughtong
    The thing about Australian politics is that elections are decided by a few thousand votes out of 12 million votes. For example, the election that changed the history of this country, the 1998 federal election, was decided by Less than 500 votes in a couple of seats. So Morrison is trying to appeal to that vote
    The only way he can be stopped is when real Conservatives (like Costello) vote for ALP by holding their noses like they did in WA and QLD in recent state elections since s lot of so called “Traditional Labor” voters are voting for LNP.

  28. There is a PV drift away from Labor and LNP to minor parties in the Victorian Roy Morgan:
    Labor -2%, LNP -3.5%, others +5.5%.

    Andrews is quite polarising, as his approval breakdown by voting intention shows:
    Labor: 97%, Greens: 84%, LNP: 16%, UAP: 1.5%

  29. Another Harris article straight from Morrison’s PR department masquerading as news.

    Upbeat Scott Morrison calls on businesses to step up to the climate challenge

    By Rob Harris
    November 13, 2021 — 5.00am

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has challenged corporate Australia to step up and end its “rent-seeking” approach by instead focusing on offering the cheaper, sustainable solutions that customers are demanding across Australia and in the world’s biggest economies.

    In an interview with The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, an upbeat Mr Morrison said he believes the world will beat climate change in the same way it has responded to other crises and warned against adopting the “defeatist” attitudes of climate activists and foreign leaders who say “we’ll all be ruined”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/upbeat-scott-morrison-calls-on-businesses-to-step-up-to-the-climate-challenge-20211112-p598ab.html

  30. We are now 15 /38 OECD on fully vaccinateds and will go past the Norway in the next day or two.

    On a weekday about 0.4% of all Australians are getting their second doses and there is about a 7% difference between nationwide first and second doses.

    We should be top 10 before Xmas.

  31. It’s time for Labor to stop indulging in the fantasy that they can slide into office by doing nothing.

    aka the Bradbury stratagem – relying on external factors to cause your opponent to trip and fall before the finish line.

  32. Bushfire Bill @ #72 Saturday, November 13th, 2021 – 9:34 am

    Paul Bongiorno examines Morrison’s “trust pitch”

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2021/11/13/scott-morrisons-trust-pitch/163672200012877

    Bongo reckons Morrison’s past utterances on the Hydrogen Economy and Electric Vehicle policy have come back to haunt him, and that may be so.

    But most of the clamour has come from the very same journalists who will soon solemnly tell us how clever his lies are, as they put Morrison in the box seat to win the election, and that if Labor seeks to do anything concrete Morrison will monster them and us with more lies and exaggerations, which the same journalists will dutifully repeat. If Albo can’t tell bigger lies than Morrison, they will argue, what’s the point of electing him?

    Most commentators are STILL only talking about lies and counter-lies as regards Global Warming. Vanishingly few are discussing or even considering why we need policies to prevent it. It’s all about the tactics, not the goals.

    Bongo reckons the public will reject Morrison’s chutzpah, but is he right? Apart from the fact that the mug punter can get used to anything, including lying (remember when 180 COVID cases a day was “a national emergency”?), the public has been conditioned to see the essential question in politics as “Who can tell the biggest lie?” When lying is actually celebrated by those who commentate on politics, lying is the only game in town.

    Thus, telling the truth becomes a fault. Governments who want to govern, pass laws, lead the way, become Pollyannas, too gullible and naive to trust with high office.

    It’s going to be a horrible election.

    The result is going to be worse than horrible.


  33. bakuninsays:
    Saturday, November 13, 2021 at 10:07 am
    There is a PV drift away from Labor and LNP to minor parties in the Victorian Roy Morgan:
    Labor -2%, LNP -3.5%, others +5.5%.

    Andrews is quite polarising, as his approval breakdown by voting intention shows:
    Labor: 97%, Greens: 84%, LNP: 16%, UAP: 1.5%

    So we cannot expect any preferences to Victorian Labor from LNP and UAP voters. What s surprise! 🙂

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