The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll records little change on a fortnight ago, with Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, in from 54-46. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 36.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two to 11.5% and One Nation down half to 3%. The “others” vote is accordingly up two-and-a-half points to 14%, which is two points higher than in any previous Morgan polls this term. See Mark the Graph for a poll trend that shows how the others vote has ascended by about four points since the start of July – BludgerTrack (freshly updated here) doesn’t feature a trendline for others, which is perhaps something I should look at.
Morgan’s two-party state breakdowns have Labor down since last fortnight by two points in New South Wales, one-and-a-half in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia and half a point in Tasmania, but up by nine points in South Australia, no doubt reflecting the vagaries of small sub-sample size. Labor leads by 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of around 5.5%; 55-45 in Victoria, around 2%; 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia, around 9%; 57.5-42.5 in South Australia, around 7%; and 57.5-42.5 in Tasmania, around 1.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2723.
Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research poll, which happily included the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. These suggested that Scott Morrison’s rocky time in Glasgow may have done him some damage, with his approval rating down six to 48% and disapproval up five to 42%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down one to 40% and up one to 35%. However, this hasn’t flowed through to preferred prime minister, on which Morrison leads 44-28, compared with 45-29 a month ago. Thirty-four per cent said they believed the government deserved to be elected, down two since the question was last asked in August, with 45% signing on for the alternative proposition that it was “time to give someone else a go”, up four.
The poll also finds 47% believe Scott Morrison has undermined Australia’s international reputation compared with 27% who believe he has enhanced it, with 54% rating a good international reputation as important and 39% rating it fairly important. An occasional question on trust in the parties to handle various issues, which interestingly finds the Coalition has taken a knock since September on national security, their lead over Labor down from 13% to 6%, and maintaining international relations, on which a 5% lead has turned into a 3% deficit. Movement on the other issues is slight but mostly negative for the Coalition.
There is better news for the government on COVID-19 management, which is rated good by 48% and poor by 29%, respectively up two and down two on a fortnight ago, and in both cases the best result the government has had since early June. From small state sub-samples, the Victorian government’s good rating is up from 43% to 56%, New South Wales is steady on 57% and Queensland is up three to 62%.
There are also questions on carbon emissions which you can see in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.
”
sprocket_says:
Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 1:44 pm
Today, we are all Dan Andrews.. this from Remembrance ceremony Melbourne..
”
”
Andrews is buttoned up and Morrison is not.
sprocket_ says:
Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 2:02 pm
Laughtong- yes I saw those, but they spoil the meme!
__________________
they aren’t appreciating your propaganda work sprockets!
“But hang on a second, Paul Murray at Sky News was telling me”
***
That guy has his head so far up Murdoch’s backside that I’m surprised he even knows what day it is. Just another shock jock with the gift of the gab and not much else.
I reckon the sprockets excitement meter is sitting at 90 Labor seats atm.
One or two more good polls and he could hit 100 seats excitement.
”
Simon Katichsays:
Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 1:55 pm
I still can’t believe it. On Remembrance Day of all days. What a scum. And most of the MSM tiptoe around it on – on their merry way.
The headlines should be calling for his resignation
”
SK
What is that you can’t believe and that too on Remembrance day?
For a person who makes his “haircut” a political weapon and asking his Lib MP to ptsise it on twitter, then learms to prepar e gnocchi like a daggy dad thing , what is there that is still left not to believe.
Je suis Dan.
“I reckon the sprockets excitement meter is sitting at 90 Labor seats atm.
One or two more good polls and he could hit 100 seats excitement.”
***
It’s so close they can almost feel it…
I share that in the hope of sobering some of you up. Don’t take it for granted. Labor is going ok on the TPP at the moment thanks to Greens support but don’t count those chickens just yet. Labor seems to be relying on the “Steven Bradbury” strategy of hoping everyone else falls over leaving them to claim the gold medal. As this strategy relies on Morrison stacking it, it carries great risk and is far from a certain outcome. ScoMo is wobbling all over the place but he’s still on his skates for now…
Labor people being interviewed would be quite entitled to continuously hammer Morrison’s many lies, saying this is what he does all the time and we should be used to it.
There are many instances, absolutely provable, to support this.
The trend in Morgan poll suggests that “Others” has been draining support from LNP and Labor since the start of September.
Kevin Bonham has suggested that the increase in Other is due to UAP. Other reported polling has indicated support for UAP is around 5% nationally so would fit with a 4% “Other” increase.
Clivey is trying to buy Scotty another election.
Expect Scotty to continue to harp on “choice” to try and get those UAP preferences.
Firefox says:
Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 11:05 am
All just make-believe for the almost grown-up.
Morrison’s anti-China dog-whistling and his constant cringeworthy attempts at nationalism shows his desperation at trying to deflect attention away from his appalling record as PM.
His PMship has been a spectacular failure.
Firefox says:
Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 2:36 pm
The Gs will do their absolute utmost to ensure Labor does not win.
mundo:
Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 1:10 pm
[‘Scoundrel makes him sound like a children’s toy….Scotty the Scoundrel.’]
The word “scoundrel” was borrowed from Sam Johnson’s:
“Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.”
All the other adjectives you used to describe him are relevant too.
I would add that I’ve got a strong feeling that Morrison’s imploding, that the word “liar” is starting to stick. And I do hope
Labor’s election add campaign highlights the fact that he is an
inveterate liar, a scoundrel, a spiv, a carnival spruiker, plus some.
Froma comment over at the SMH:
Laor needs to do two things,
1 Counter Morrisons lies and Spin in the strongest terms for all the gullible voters
2 Be the party for the future of your children.
.
Point 1. is absolutely critical.
Labor can’t afford to just ignore Morrison’s bullshittery when it’s deployed.
It just won’t work.
They challenge, refute and when appropriate, lampoon in the strongest possible terms every time.
Just saying something Morrison said is ‘nonsense’ as Albo did yesterday won’t cut it it.
Singing Bloos @ #57 Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 3:05 pm
Don’t be stupid.
SK
What is that you can’t believe and that too on Remembrance day?
For a person who makes his “haircut” a political weapon and asking his Lib MP to ptsise it on twitter, then learms to prepar e gnocchi like a daggy dad thing , what is there that is still left not to believe.
————————-
Calling the opposition leader a traitor on remembrance day is in a different league to a bit of self promotion.
What a body language expert could read into that photo! 😀
Firefox @ #207 Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 2:36 pm
At least three of those pictured should be managed out of politics to allow fresh blood. They are a dead weight on Labor.
“The Gs will do their absolute utmost to ensure Labor does not win.”
***
Negative. In fact, we Greens are actually the ones making it possible for you to win via our preferences. Whether you will or not remains to be seen, which is why you shouldn’t get ahead of yourselves.
I reckon the sprockets excitement meter is sitting at 90 Labor seats atm.
——————-
I remember watching the Gillard government 2PP swing wildly. They would get to evens with Abbott and then the Murdoch machine would kick in, the MSM would play follow the leader and boom, they would find themselve 5+pts behind again. Some of these swings may have begun with self inflicted wounds opening up. But I do not underestimate the effect of saturation bile spewed by Murdoch etc and then made “news” by the rest.
So yes. 54-46 can easily be swallowed up.
“Firefoxsays:
Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 2:36 pm
“I reckon the sprockets excitement meter is sitting at 90 Labor seats atm.
One or two more good polls and he could hit 100 seats excitement.”
***
It’s so close they can almost feel it…”
Dude, you are a Greens Political Party supporter who has apparently spent the last 8 years of your life trolling Labor supporters while Labor is opposition and we’ve had three terms of a tory party whose major achievement has been to slow down global action on climate change
The only thing protecting you from the enormous shame of how sad and pathetic you are is a complete lack of self awareness.
No Labor supporter is getting over confident. Obviously a part of it is what happened last time but more generally the deck is heavily stacked against the progressive party of government winning from opposition….made worse by a narcissism fuelled Greens Political Party that will inevitably opportunist campaigning against Labor
mundo says:
Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 3:07 pm
Labor’s enemies come in many guises. The pop-left absolutely detest Labor. They will play tag with the LNP to keep Labor out of office. Count on it.
The anti-conservative constituencies in this country have been split most of the time since federation. They’re split now. It has always been excruciatingly difficult for Labor when its true believers and potential allies are divided, and it will be difficult again in the coming election. The pop-left know this very well. They will make the most of it. Indeed, they can do no other. They have an existential interest in defeating Labor. They will apply themselves to it.
“At least three of those pictured should be managed out of politics to allow fresh blood. They are a dead weight on Labor.”
***
Yeah, the three blokes.
Senator Wong needs to stay though for sure, Labor needs people like her. That’s not to say I agree with everything she says but Labor would be a far better party if there were more people like her in it.
“Lockdowns cost jobs”
Lockdowns are but one of the strategies to interrupt the transmission of this virus of unknown source from human being to human being – so sparing debilitating illness and saving lives
Perhaps the Federal Treasurer could reflect on the botched procurement and roll out of vaccines and the impact of this failure on the economy and jobs
And the impact on the Budget of the botched Jobkeeper largesse, a largesse which domiciled on the Balance Sheets of Companies
Will the Federal Treasurer appear before Fair Work Australia in support of a wage increase exceeding inflation and to give impetus to the economy?
To date this government has hidden behind the RBA in its response to the impact of this virus of unknown source on the Nation – exclusively
The reason being that Australia does not have a Federal Government
Australia has a political party occupying the treasury benches
Led by a marketeer out of his depth (Hewson)
Simon Katich @ #221 Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 3:13 pm
Yes I well remember when Gillard would claw back only to be sabotaged by a leak from the ambitious and deranged rats in her ranks to Murdoch, which inevitably killed off the progressive Govt and allowed the fossil fuel cartel to again dominate the parliament.
Constant “strongest possible terms” becomes boring to the public and that approach usually backfires on the non-right.
Albo et al need to be very measured and strategic in their language. Shouting “liar” until Election Day will have diminishing returns. Use it sparingly and focus on re-enforcing the issues Morrison has with the truth AND THE IMPACTS of his lies. Lies are part and parcel with trust.
Labor knows Morrison wanted to run on a trust message – that’s now been severely damaged… they’re turning the trust language back on Morrison. And they need the public to continue to doubt their ability to trust Morrison, not bash them over the head by their shouts of “liar” for the next 4-6 months.
Morrison demands the ALP release their CC policy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/prime-minister-faces-renewed-2030s-climate-target-push-20211111-p59804.html
Firefox says:
Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 3:13 pm
“The Gs will do their absolute utmost to ensure Labor does not win.”
***
Negative. In fact, we Greens are actually the ones making it possible for you to win via our preferences. Whether you will or not remains to be seen, which is why you shouldn’t get ahead of yourselves.
As things stand, I expect Labor to be defeated again. History is very much against Labor winning, much as I might wish it were not so. Since 1917, Labor have won from Opposition while also split just once. That was in 1972. Another 50 years later, in 2022, the Labor-positive constituencies will be split. They will likely lose. 2022 is not 1972. There is no VietNam War. There is no popular uprising against the LNP. There is only mistrust, disaffection, contempt and Labor-phobia. These impulses will keep the LNP in office. Your party will rejoice.
Not only did Scotty screw up the Vaccine roll out, he also is now working with Clive Palmer to garner anti vaxer sentiment.
What a scumbag!
Singing Bloos @ #229 Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 3:20 pm
‘Labor-phobia’
Yes that remains as long as Shorten and some of the other deadwood cling on to their spots.
Labor needs a refresh of front bench talent.
D says:
Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 3:20 pm
Morrison demands the ALP release their CC policy.
==================================
Goodness me. Labor’s enthusiastic ‘friends’ on bludger have been making that call for the last three years.
My view is that Labor should at least wait until the Coalition releases a real CC. After all, the Coalition has had 8 years to cobble one together. And they are squabbling internally about their CC pamphlet on this very day.
“No Labor supporter is getting over confident. Obviously a part of it is what happened last time but more generally the deck is heavily stacked against the progressive party of government winning from opposition….made worse by a narcissism fuelled Greens Political Party that will inevitably opportunist campaigning against Labor”
***
Oh dear, here come the conservative nutters from the Labor Right to blame all the problems of their own making on the Greens again. Another day, another hate filled rant attacking the progressive left. Stop making up nonsense about things you clearly have no clue about, you’re just making a fool of yourself.
Firefox says:
Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 3:25 pm
…
Oh dear, here come the conservative nutters from the Labor Right…’
—————————–
Abuse.
John Bjelke Firefox @12.05am
“Oh don’t you worry, ”
Go the Greens!!!!
“Abuse.”
***
Spare me, Comrade Boerski. Did you read the hate filled bile I was responding to?
If a random voter happened to read PB comments they’d come away thinking that Labor was the political equivalent of a beach-washed jelly-fish: spineless and completely at the mercy of external forces.
Singing Bloossays:
Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 3:05 pm
I think you forgot a word at the end.
… big.
That would be closer to the truth.
Rex Douglas says:
….
Yes that remains as long as Shorten and some of the other deadwood cling on to their spots.
Labor needs a refresh of front bench talent.’
————————————
Perhaps it could co-opt some of the ‘fresh’ Greens?
The ones who want no ADF and who want to restrain Xi using peace studies?
The ones who grandstand at Glasgow while doing bugger all practical for the climate?
The ones who think UBI would be a wonderfully practicable thing?
The ones who want to trash completely half a dozen rural and regional industries with bugger-all?
Shorten delivered the NDIS.
Which is more than ALL the Greens have delivered over ALL of the past 30 years.
‘Firefox says:
Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 3:30 pm
“Abuse.”
***
Spare me, Comrade Boerski. Did you read the hate filled bile I was responding to?’
——————————
Non sequitur + more abuse.
bakunin says:
Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 3:30 pm
If a random voter happened to read PB comments they’d come away thinking that Labor was the political equivalent of a beach-washed jelly-fish: spineless and completely at the mercy of external forces.
——————————————–
Classic Greens troll effort.
What the random voter would learn is that the Coalition is the most corrupt and incompetent government since Federation. They would learn that the Coalition has dropped 830,000 supporters since the last Federal election.They would learn that Labor is consistently in a position to form Government. They would learn that the Greens are flatlining at between 10-12% and are currently at the bottom of that range. They would learn that the Greens spend more time bashing Labor than doing anything else. They would learn that ‘others’ have far more support than the Greens.
How delighted was Frydenberg to relate that NSW had recovered with more new jobs in October, and Victoria had gone backwards with more stood down.
Sarah Hanson young has been in parliament almost as long as Bill Shorten, but arguably hasn’t achieved much compared to Bill. As Bill has been a Minister before.
IF Bill is deadwood then surely SHY is as well?
“Shorten delivered the NDIS.”
***
Actually, the NDIS was delivered by the Bandt/Gillard gov, which would not have existed without the Greens. We are very proud to have played our part in it’s implementation.
As I recall, Shorten picked up the NDIS, which no one wanted, and worked extremely hard consulting and creating its design. The legislation came much later.
Slater’s attempting to have to the charges laid against him dismissed on the ground of his mental health:
[‘Former Australian Test cricketer Michael Slater will seek to have two domestic violence charges dealt with on mental health grounds, after a court heard he is receiving treatment as an inpatient in hospital.
Slater, 51, was arrested at his Manly home on October 20 and charged with stalking and intimidating his partner at Randwick between October 12 and 13, with the intention of causing her to fear physical or mental harm.
He is also accused of using a carriage service to menace, harass or offend her between March and October.
When Slater was arrested, police said they had received “reports of a domestic violence incident alleged to have occurred on Tuesday 12 October”.
On Thursday, Slater’s lawyer James McLoughlin told Waverley Local Court that his client is in hospital and was assessed on Wednesday by a forensic psychiatrist.
He said his client is currently in hospital for “related treatment” as an inpatient.
Mr McLoughlin asked for the case to be adjourned to December, where a barrister would appear for Slater and apply to have the charges dismissed on mental health grounds.
If such an application is granted, a magistrate can order that a person attend treatment.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/michael-slater-seeks-to-have-domestic-violence-charge-dealt-with-on-mental-health-grounds-20211111-p59811.html
Bandt/Gillard? That’s a laugh
Not the slightest allusion to the wonderful new deal between the US and China on climate change:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/
I identified some of major sources of methane in China yesterday, bearing in mind that China had agreed in a non binding way to pledge to make a plan to reduce its methane emissions by a third from an unknown base line.
While scratching through China’s greenhouse gas innards I came up with another consideration. China accounts for about two thirds of the globe’s aquaculture. Aquaculture is a significant generator of methane.
“IF Bill is deadwood then surely SHY is as well?”
***
SHY always manages to attract the hatred of the right such as the above. Their intense hatred of her is an indication of just how effective she is.
Shorten’s greatest claim to fame is being one of “The Faceless Men” who played a very large part in destroying two Labor Prime Ministers and leaving Australia in the state it is today. If you’re looking for someone to blame for your woes, Bill would be a good place to start.
Bandt/Gillard? Oh honey…
Gillard/Windsor/Oakeshott/Bandt (Brown/Milne)/Wilkie if we’re being accurate.