Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll adds another increment to the rise of “others”, while Scott Morrison’s personal ratings take a knock in Essential Research.

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll records little change on a fortnight ago, with Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, in from 54-46. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 36.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two to 11.5% and One Nation down half to 3%. The “others” vote is accordingly up two-and-a-half points to 14%, which is two points higher than in any previous Morgan polls this term. See Mark the Graph for a poll trend that shows how the others vote has ascended by about four points since the start of July – BludgerTrack (freshly updated here) doesn’t feature a trendline for others, which is perhaps something I should look at.

Morgan’s two-party state breakdowns have Labor down since last fortnight by two points in New South Wales, one-and-a-half in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia and half a point in Tasmania, but up by nine points in South Australia, no doubt reflecting the vagaries of small sub-sample size. Labor leads by 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of around 5.5%; 55-45 in Victoria, around 2%; 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia, around 9%; 57.5-42.5 in South Australia, around 7%; and 57.5-42.5 in Tasmania, around 1.5%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2723.

Also out this week was the fortnightly Essential Research poll, which happily included the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. These suggested that Scott Morrison’s rocky time in Glasgow may have done him some damage, with his approval rating down six to 48% and disapproval up five to 42%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down one to 40% and up one to 35%. However, this hasn’t flowed through to preferred prime minister, on which Morrison leads 44-28, compared with 45-29 a month ago. Thirty-four per cent said they believed the government deserved to be elected, down two since the question was last asked in August, with 45% signing on for the alternative proposition that it was “time to give someone else a go”, up four.

The poll also finds 47% believe Scott Morrison has undermined Australia’s international reputation compared with 27% who believe he has enhanced it, with 54% rating a good international reputation as important and 39% rating it fairly important. An occasional question on trust in the parties to handle various issues, which interestingly finds the Coalition has taken a knock since September on national security, their lead over Labor down from 13% to 6%, and maintaining international relations, on which a 5% lead has turned into a 3% deficit. Movement on the other issues is slight but mostly negative for the Coalition.

There is better news for the government on COVID-19 management, which is rated good by 48% and poor by 29%, respectively up two and down two on a fortnight ago, and in both cases the best result the government has had since early June. From small state sub-samples, the Victorian government’s good rating is up from 43% to 56%, New South Wales is steady on 57% and Queensland is up three to 62%.

There are also questions on carbon emissions which you can see in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

970 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 20
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  1. I have been thinking about the new “ less government , more can-do capitalism “ mantra now being sprouted by Morrison.

    In his haste to get into election mode I am wondering if he has really thought this through properly.

    Less government “ intervention “ more private sector involvement ?

    It would seem to me to open the door for labor to start pitching the “less government spending means cuts to health, education, etc etc etc “ and “ what else does Morrison I tend to cut ? “ lines.

    More cuts to aged care perhaps ? More privatisation on the cards ?

    With trillions in debt and deficit this would appear to be fertile ground for labor.

  6. lizzie @ #127 Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 11:09 am

    This is no surprise.

    9News Australia
    @9NewsAUS
    ·
    2h
    The Prime Minister’s office has failed to meet deadlines for multiple requests to access information about the controversial $660 million commuter car parks program.

    I have a question about this.

    Is an Opposition allowed access to documents like this during the Caretaker Period?

  8. C@tmomma @ #155 Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 9:20 am

    lizzie @ #127 Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 11:09 am

    This is no surprise.

    9News Australia
    @9NewsAUS
    ·
    2h
    The Prime Minister’s office has failed to meet deadlines for multiple requests to access information about the controversial $660 million commuter car parks program.

    I have a question about this.

    Is an Opposition allowed access to documents like this during the Caretaker Period?

    Why would it be?

    It’s decision made before any election has been called.

  9. Spending November 11 the traditional way, watching the Dismissal on my old VHS tapes from 1983 complete with cringeworthy ad breaks.

    1 Mins silence at 2.20pm, hard to believe it is 46 years ago

    Whitlam Govt – 2/12/1972 – 11/11/1975

    Tell you one thing, would much prefer to have the TV liberals than the current buffoons. Yes they are deceptive bastards but in an honest, political, no nonsense way.

  10. @BelindaJones68
    ·
    45s
    “Asked on morning television to discuss French President Emanuel Macron’s claim he was a liar, Mr Morrison instead pivoted to accuse the Labor leader of being a traitor.” writes @samanthamaiden

    A disgusting accusation to make

  11. The federal parliamentary fossil fuel cartel are making us look so pathetic…

    Tony Windsor
    @TonyHWindsor
    ·
    2m
    The USA and China agree on Climate Change progress.
    Our man Clumsy just wants to go to War.

  12. @Cat

    Opposition does not get access to any documents in caretaker period. All that happens is that the Govt adopts no new policies, commitments, appointments and other undertakings.

    The public service go into caretaker mode and prepare the blue and red books or incoming Govt briefs as policies are announced by both parties.

    Also, a bit dodgy but has happened, anything sensitive can be ‘cabinetized’ or labelled cabinet in confidence and filed for 30 years.

  13. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 12:03 pm

    What was effective with the 2019 scare campaign on EVs was its conflation with the ‘retiree tax’ and demonisation of Shorten.
    ____
    Shorten demonised himself. His dodgy deals whose only aim was to further his own ambition coupled with his determination to bring down Rudd to further his own timeline towards the Prime Ministership.

  14. I have been thinking about the new “ less government , more can-do capitalism “ mantra now being sprouted by Morrison.

    I don’t think his media team thought this through. The immediate association for those of us in Qld is with Can-do Campbell Newman.
    Given the total collapse of Newman’s support from a record number of seats to loss of government in one term I can’t see it’ll do Morrison any favors.

  16. Player One says:
    Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 12:14 pm
    lizzie @ #147 Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 12:04 pm

    “The market is speaking.”
    The market is speaking. Albo is not.

    The market never speaks they only speak when they are FORCED TO ACT BY GOVERNMENT.

  20. sprocket_ @ #146 Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 12:03 pm

    What was effective with the 2019 scare campaign on EVs was its conflation with the ‘retiree tax’ and demonisation of Shorten.

    Low information voters going to the polls on the day would have seen a string of corflutes with:

    – Bill Shorten will tax you retirement
    – Bill Shorten will tax your super
    – Bill Shorten will tax your car
    – Bill Shorten will tax your boat
    – Bill Shorten will tax you to death!

    Very effective for the don’t know, don’t care cohort – I mean, why would you vote for someone about to do all those things?

    Scotty knows how easy it is.

  21. Mavis @ #132 Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 11:27 am

    [‘Asked on Newcastle radio 2HD on Monday if his image had been tarnished by his sojourn, Morrison persisted with a re-writing of recent history. “Well, Labor always sort of sticks up for people who have a crack at Australia.’]

    Morrison’s a scoundrel!

    Scoundrel?
    You mean naughty boy don’t you.
    Naughty, naughty boy.
    Morrison is a loathsome creep and a lying dissembling deceiver.
    He is a pox on this country’s future.
    He is the most repellant political figure of several in recent years.
    .
    Scoundrel makes him sound like a children’s toy….Scotty the Scoundrel.

  22. So the trend line for unemployment has jagged sharply upwards, said due to more people seeking employment as vaccination rates see a cautious uplift in the ability of people to go about their lives (and spending what they have accrued when vaccinated levels did not afford the capacity to spend we see now – so on entertainment)

    But 40,000 LOST their employment over the period

    We are informed that those operating restaurants are struggling for staff (which they are because international students and backpackers are absent – these absent from Australia workers not in the data except for opening opportunity to those who remain in Australia)

    No doubt free markets and capitalism will reverse the trend

    Except (by way of example):-

    Westpac Shares have been hammered on personnel costs, increasing when Markets look for a reduction

    In fact, time in memorial, the ASX has rewarded Companies when those Companies announce they are to retrench staff

    But free markets and capitalism is the cure for every ill

    Perhaps we could sack this incompetent pm and the government he leads – and see the value of Australia surge in response

    Led by events in Capital Markets and the latest Bond Auction in the USA, we have seen a surge in Bond Yields now replicated in Australia

    Again it is the factors influencing these movements and sentiment – so supply chain and labour shortages – and that they are transitory

    Absent from the data before us is any informed comment from the Australian government, the pm and the Treasurer who instead defer to free markets and capitalism (and, of course, playing politics at the exact time we require leadership from our leaders and not just from Company Directors)

    And no doubt tax cuts

  25. GoldenSmaug,

    I am a Queenslander as well and, as such, had the same response as you.

    Perhaps a touch underthought by Morrison and co.

    Saying that, Morrison does seem to be all over the place atm and, at times, rather shrill.

  26. Using the Queensland example of Can Do Campbell Newman, ‘Can Do Capitalism’ = Rip Off the Taxpayers, Capitalism for your Mates, doesn’t it?

  27. Maybe AOC will tell SHY why she and other members of the Squad voted against Joe Biden’s $1.2T Infrastructure Bill.

    In short, it wasn’t broad enough. So nothing was better.
    —————————
    The bill passed. This is just barking at shadows.

  30. Morrison is in full self caricature mode. Blabbing predetermined and practiced and ugly catchphrases out of context.

    We thought Abbott was a low point in Australian politics. This slug finds new depth.

  32. Vic, who gives a decorated vet a double thumbs up? Please, someone tell me there is some context to this other than the cringeworthy one in my head.

  33. Since his triumphant return from Glasgow, Morrison seems to be disembling….angry, abusive, ubiquitous, micromanaging, shouting…..not all tht different to usual but cranked up to 11.
    Its very ugly.

  34. Neil McMahon
    @NeilMcMahon
    ·
    4m
    Bert Newton’s state funeral will blanket all three commercial networks tomorrow morning, with anchors outside St Patrick’s Cathedral. Also streaming live on all platforms. Not sure of
    @abcnews plans.

    Another photo opp for Scotty?

  36. Lizzie

    Today the weather is lovely in Melbourne town.

    Tomorrow not so good.

    Not sure if anyone will hang around outside during the funeral.

  38. “Using the Queensland example of Can Do Campbell Newman, ‘Can Do Capitalism’ = Rip Off the Taxpayers, Capitalism for your Mates, doesn’t it?”

    ***

    Another example would be Labor and the Coalition teaming up to give tax cuts to the rich elites while also teaming up to ensure that people really struggling on JobSeeker remained below the poverty line.

  41. Firefoxsays:
    Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 1:42 pm

    “Using the Queensland example of Can Do Campbell Newman, ‘Can Do Capitalism’ = Rip Off the Taxpayers, Capitalism for your Mates, doesn’t it?”

    ***

    Another example would be Labor and the Coalition teaming up to give tax cuts to the rich elites while also teaming up to ensure that people really struggling on JobSeeker remained below the poverty line.

    Nice conflation of completely unrelated policy areas.

  42. Simon Katich @ #65 Thursday, November 11th, 2021 – 1:27 pm

    Morrison is in full self caricature mode. Blabbing predetermined and practiced and ugly catchphrases out of context.

    We thought Abbott was a low point in Australian politics. This slug finds new depth.

    Fingers crossed the pressure on him from most quarters is maintained he may crack.
    He may crack bad.

  44. I still can’t believe it. On Remembrance Day of all days. What a scum. And most of the MSM tiptoe around it on – on their merry way.

    The headlines should be calling for his resignation.

  48. ”
    Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 12:15 pm
    AOC?
    A gift that keeps on giving to the elephants.
    ”

    Or the donkey who keeps giving gifts to Repugs.

  49. Lizzie..
    When you hide corrupt conduct it pays to be tardy ….

    9News Australia
    @9NewsAUS
    ·
    2h
    The Prime Minister’s office has failed to meet deadlines for multiple requests to access information about the controversial $660 million commuter car parks program.

  50. “So the trend line for unemployment has jagged sharply upwards”

    But hang on a second, Paul Murray at Sky News was telling me “Morrison government ‘will win’ the election if it’s about the economy”

    rising unemployment, record trillion debt, 1 recession maybe 2
    I think Labor should campaign on the economy, they would be stupid not to

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