The fortnight before Christmas

Another pre-Christmas election theory, a court ruling brings some clarity to Labor’s preselection process in Victoria, and the latest on New South Wales’ looming bonanza of state by-elections.

Seemingly nothing doing on the polling front this week, though I would have thought we were due the monthly Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald. That may yet come – perhaps even very shortly – given the publisher’s unpredictable past treatment of it. I need a new post sooner than that though, so here are some relevant recent developments:

• Anthony Albanese has reportedly told his party to be prepared for the possibility that Scott Morrison will call an election for December 11 after he returns from the Glasgow climate summit early next month. Andrew Clennell of Sky News describes this as a “ploy”, and says the genuine view within Labor is that the election will most likely be held in March. Kevin Bonham notes that the proximity of this date to Christmas and New Year would complicate the protracted process of Senate counting, and that it would not allow time for new laws requiring registered parties to have at least 1500 members to take effect.

• The Victorian Supreme Court has thrown out a legal challenge against the Labor national executive’s takeover of the Victorian branch’s federal preselection process. This had been pursued by the factional bloc of the Right associated with Bill Shorten, which The Age reports is considering an appeal. Assuming the ruling holds, it confirms the preselection of former state party secretary Sam Rae in the new seat of Hawke, and allows the party to proceed with other federal preselections that have so far been in limbo.

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports that candidates for Liberal preselection in Hughes are likely to include Jenny Ware, moderate-backed director of legal services at Georges River Council, and that there is also likely to be a factional conservative in the field. This complicates matters for Melanie Gibbons, who will quit her state seat of Holsworthy to run, and has the backing of Scott Morrison.

New South Wales by-election latest:

• There is now a fifth state by-election on the way in New South Wales, and the first in a Labor-held seat, after Jodi McKay announced her intention to resign five months after losing the leadership to Chris Minns. This will create a vacancy in her seat of Strathfield, which she held at the 2019 election by a 5.0% margin. Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports potential preselection candidates include Sravya Abbineni, multiculturalism adviser at NSW Government Health and former staffer to McKay; John Faker, mayor of Burwood; and Jennifer Light, the party’s national assistant secretary.

• The Nationals have preselected Nichole Overall, a local historian, communications consultant and freelance writer, to succeed John Barilaro as the party’s candidate in Monaro.

• In addition to the previously noted Gail Giles-Gidney, the mayor of Willoughby, the Sydney Morning Herald reports candidates for the preselection to succeed Gladys Berejiklian in Willoughby will include Tim James, factional conservative and executive general manager of the Menzies Research Centre.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,419 comments on “The fortnight before Christmas”

Comments Page 26 of 49
1 … 25 26 27 … 49

  1. The Gold Coast covid uber driver was an anti-vaxxer gym junkie, if there’s such a thing as a “look” for these covidiots, he’s nailed it :

  3. If the swing is on, then Reid will fall to Labor.
    That’s a big if though, I’m not detecting any white hot, baseball bats at the ready, anger in Reid, (where I live). That being said, there’s no real love for Slomo and co either, so who knows.
    Fiona Martin is mild, fairly inoffensive and hasn’t done anything to annoy the electorate so she may survive. As I say, she at least empathises well.

  8. ”
    Lurkersays:
    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 10:51 am
    Should be a bit more than interesting. If Labor don’t win Reid, they will either be losing or having a very small majority.

    The national plan was all about opening up Australia safely so we can remain safely open.

    During election campaign, Morrison will visit Reid atleast a couple of times and say things like “The national plan was all about opening up Australia safely so we can remain safely open”. And the we will have the media cheering from rooftops.

  9. Stay safe and well OC.

    Thank you for your past contributions on matters political and medical and also your insights on various matters Irish. I hope you will return some time to provide more of these but if not, again my thanks.

  10. At the last election, Sam Crosby contested Reid against Fiona Martin. He was an excellent candidate. A lot of people from the Hills have moved into this area and many look LNP rusted-ons. I attended our local hall to meet Sam Crosby and Mark Butler and was impressed by both .
    The affluence of the newcomers means it may be harder for Labor to win this seat.

  11. Henry,
    Fiona Martin was pushy at our election booth, stepping in front of us to shake hands. When we said we were voting for Sam, her smile fell and she swiftly withdrew .
    It felt presumptuous , not unlike Morrison forcing the handshake.
    Also, her voting record is much more right-wing than say Craig Laundy.

  12. I’m worried about this kid they’ve preselected for Blaxland, personally. He’s only 25 years old. How are we supposed to defeat Gorton in October with candidates like that?

  13. Well. Shit.

    Correction: The five cases in QLD are the Gold Coast case plus four “other” (not local.)
    Apologies for implying it was five local cases. Today’s figures aren’t out yet.

  14. ”
    Player Onesays:
    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 11:09 am
    Ven @ #1227 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 10:43 am

    At least her preselection will make Lurker, P1 happy.

    Are you unhappy about her preselection? Why?
    ”

    Why?
    This is a marginal seat and ALP needs to win seats like this to win government. Current sitting member is firsttime elected member. And first time elected members have Sophomore vote according to psephologists. So a person with better voter recognition has more chance to win. It is just I did not hear about Sitou not that I am some political expert.
    Some may then argue what about Peter Bettie ( a premier who was successful in multiple state elections) contesting federal seat against a less recognized sitting member and still lost? Sophomore effect.

  16. Asha says:
    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 11:28 am

    I’m worried about this kid they’ve preselected for Blaxland, personally. He’s only 25 years old. How are we supposed to defeat Gorton in October with candidates like that?
    __________
    Good point, but he improved with time. In his maiden speech he argued that Australian women needed to get back into the kitchens, and that the best immigrant was an Australian baby. Or something along those lines.

  17. Friday, October 22, 2021 at 10:59 am
    Steelydan:

    Imagine it NSW had tried to open up with 2,189 new cases and 16 deaths many on here would have become apoplectic, but Dan can do now wrong.

    It’s hard to disagree with this one, I have to say.
    ——————
    True. Gladys/Dom would have been the focus of outrage. At least based on what Norman Swan and other analysts are saying though, the outrage against Dom/Gladys would have been overdone and the approach being taken by Victoria involves manageable risk. Of course everyone would be feeling more comfortable if Vic case numbers were lower and on a clear downward trajectory at this stage. Reff in Victoria is still holding just under 1.00 today. I guess we’ll all get a clearer picture within a week or so.

  19. Quasar,
    All Liberal candidates are taught to do that. Right down to the Council election level. They usually follow up the aggressive handshake maneuver with their spiel. I believe they have calculated that it fills the heads of the voters just before they go in to vote.

    I just used to wait until they had finished, because they seemed to try and collar the voters in the car park as soon as they got out of their car, and talk to them closer to the door to the voting booths. 🙂

  22. Ven:

    Sometimes being a fresh face with no baggage is just as good or better than name recognition. I’d say that’s especially the case in New South Wales, where being associated with previous Labor governments probably isn’t an electoral plus.

    Also, I suspect the political climate in early 2022 is going to be a wee bit different than it was in the latter half of 2013. (Jesus, has it really been nearly ten years!?)

  23. ”
    Vogon Poetsays:
    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 11:10 am
    The Gold Coast covid uber driver was an anti-vaxxer gym junkie, if there’s such a thing as a “look” for these covidiots, he’s nailed it :
    ”

    Is he the one who is now seriously sick in hospital with COVID?

  25. I think people over-state the importance of candidates, especially in city electorates. If the swing is on, it;’s on, and it doesn’t really matter much who the candidate is – most people will be voting to the candidate with ALP or LIB next to their names. A bit different in rural and regional electorates, where voters often know their candidates a bit better, and so a bad candidate can have a real and negative effect (Mundine in Gilmore springs to mind) , but I’d guess the vast majority of voters have no idea who their local MP even is.

    The more important thing to consider in candidate selection is whether the candidate would be a good MP if they are elected (obviously this is not a consideration for the National Party).

  26. Really!?!

    I am relieved to see that you’re ok and am grateful for your part in the COVID response. It is, however, regrettable you feel pushed away from the board like this. It is also regrettable that one of the people directly responsible for you feeling this way chose to respond to your post with more abuse.

    You completely ignore the gratuitous insult that Oakeshott Country directed at me and instead, again, make it all about me. I think I’m beginning to realise I should expect no less from you.

  28. There’s been some developments of boosters.

    Severely immunocompromised are already receiving boosters (Pfizer)

    October 8:

    Severely immunocompromised people should receive a third dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as part of their primary course, the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) has confirmed.

    The updated clinical guidance, initially flagged last month, is aimed at addressing the risk of a suboptimal or non-response to the standard two dose schedule in this cohort and maximise the level of immune response to ‘as close as possible to the general population’.

    However, ATAGI still recommends that immunocompromised people continue risk mitigation strategies such as mask wearing and social distancing even after receiving their third dose.

    Pfizer or Moderna mRNA vaccines are preferred to AstraZeneca for the third dose. The latter can be used for individuals who received it for their first two doses if there are no contraindications or precautions for use, or if a significant adverse reaction occurred after a previous mRNA vaccine dose, such as anaphylaxis or myocarditis.

    The recommended interval for the third dose is 2–6 months after the second dose, but a minimum interval of four weeks may be considered in exceptional circumstances, ie anticipated intensification of immunosuppression or outbreaks. People who have had a second dose more than six months ago should receive a third dose whenever feasible.

    https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/atagi-recommends-third-dose-for-immunocompromised

    Approval for high risk groups – aged, aged care workers – is expected next week, with the “rest of the general population” to follow.

    October 20:

    Minister Hunt told reporters aged-care workers and residents would be the first to be receive a third booster shot – an extra dose of Pfizer – followed by the rest of the general population.

    Pfizer is currently the only vaccine manufacturer that has submitted data for approval for a booster vaccination, making it likely to be the only vaccine used in the initial stages of the rollout.

    https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/boosters-are-coming-what-does-the-latest-evidence

  29. Lurker:

    Yeah, that wasn’t exactly Keating’s finest hour:

    He was initially more socially conservative; in his maiden speech he declared that the Liberal Government had “boasted about the increasing number of women in the workforce. Rather than something to be proud of, I feel it is something of which we should be ashamed”.[10] He later voted against former Prime Minister John Gorton’s motion to decriminalise homosexuality in 1973. According to Tom Uren he was originally a “very narrow-minded young man”, who later “matured” and became far less socially conservative.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Keating

  30. Queensland chief health officer Dr Jeanette Young says there is a truck driver in Victoria who tested positive overnight who had been in Queensland on 18 and 19 October.

    She says the driver had had one dose of the vaccine.

    On the Gold Coast case, she says the man in his 30s, who is unvaccinated, is “extremely sick” and will likely need to go into intensive care.

    She says because he was so sick, there aren’t many exposure sites outside of his home.

  33. Asha says:
    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 11:45 am

    Lurker:

    Yeah, that wasn’t exactly Keating’s finest hour:
    _________________
    One of those few cases where time in Parliament actually improved a person. No doubt international travel and experiences beyond the NSW Right gave him plenty of time to reflect. Which is why I believe international travel should be available to all Australian teenagers through Secondary Education.

  34. Agreed Hugo. I think for the most part, individual candidates’ fates are decided by direction of the political wind, not their individual quality, as long as they are not terrible of course.

  35. I miss Itza Dream. He’s a much kinder, gentler type of contributor who displays a gentle sense of humour and a vast array of medical knowledge without seeming arrogant about it, and an understanding of people, that others here, especially some who have arrived recently, seem to lack.

    But that seems to be the way of the world these days.

  36. Hugo:

    Very good points.

    I think one of the best examples of this phenomenon is when it comes to local government. In regional areas, local politics is serious business. Once you get into the city, you’d be lucky if most people even know how their local councillor is.

    When I was doing phone banking during the last Brisbane city council election, a substantial portion of the people I spoke to weren’t even aware there was an election happening.

  39. I think the opposite is the case with candidates. A bad one can really turn people off. A good one minimises damage and generally negative impressions about a particular party. Without necessarily super-charging the vote.

  40. C@tmomma @ #1285 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 11:50 am

    I miss Itza Dream. He’s a much kinder, gentler type of contributor who displays a gentle sense of humour and a vast array of medical knowledge without seeming arrogant about it, and an understanding of people, that others here, especially some who have arrived recently, seem to lack.

    But that seems to be the way of the world these days.

    Boo !!!

  42. ”
    porotisays:
    Friday, October 22, 2021 at 11:43 am
    Ven
    He is indeed ‘the one’ .
    ”

    poroti
    He is a perfect example of anti-vaxxers. Well built, muscles bulging out thinking that the virus will be afraid of such physique.
    I don’t know whether you saw on TV or not, but in NSW during the height of delta wave, the state government advertised with real people who were affected by COVID. One of them was a strong looking young man lying flat on his stomach in hospital, complelety knocked out and unable to move and asking people to get vaccinated.
    ‘the one’ looks like him and did not learn anything from that Ad as ‘the one’s is from NSW/Vic according to news reports.

  43. Bon Voyage OC.

    I’m sorry that I never got around to giving you my view of the Lazarus matter. I thought long and hard about it, but because I’m still an active practitioner in the jurisdiction and my candid views are critical to the point of apoplexy of seven judicial officers it’s probably for the best that I don’t expand further. The upshot of this malarkey is that we now have victims writing laws that will inevitably lead to injustices every day of the week in our court system.

  44. Reid, where I also live, has a very big Asian-background population now (was formerly Greek/Italian).

    Sitou is a good choice and will bolster Labor’s non-white credentials.

    While the sitting member has done little to offend, it also appears she has done little, period. We have a very strong Labor Mayor and quite a few strong Labor councillors here (Canada Bay LGA) and the state #LNP member is currently under a cloud that stinks to high heaven. Strathfield, Jody McKay’s district, is Labor as well.

    All these things make for a strong Labor showing

  45. My impression of Fiona Martin is that she’s a fan girl for Morrison, just pumps out the spin when she’s required to. The new Labor preselected candidate for Reid looks good from my initial impressions, ditto Gordon Reid in Robertson. Anyway, if the swing against the Libs is on in NSW, Reid will go and so might Robertson too.
    Have Labor yet preselected a candidate for Banks? I think that seat is winnable, for two reasons, 1. David Coleman the sitting member is possibly not running for office again, 2. A lot of that area was in the worst of the Sydney lockdown, residual bad feeling against the state government might carry on over to the federal liberals.

  46. It’s actually one of the things I really admired about Keating – the fact that he was willing to learn and change.

    It’s always a good quality to improve oneself and change ones views if they are wrong. The world would be a lot better of a place if people didn’t think it a virtue to dig-in with their views and never be willing to change them, regardless of contradicting evidence or compelling arguments against them.

  47. Polling out of WA would suggest that Swan, Pearce and Hasluck are all possible Labor seat gains. If so and add on the notional extra seat for Labor in Victoria, that would put Albo up to 72 seats. Labor then needs 4 extra from NSW, Qld, SA and Tassie for a majority, if my maths is correct.
    Morrison really needs to pick up seats in NSW to stay in government, or majority government if you like.
    He hit the high water mark in Qld in 2019!

  48. U.S. COVID update: Daily cases drop 32 days in a row

    – New cases: 82,229 …………………….. – New deaths: 2,020

    – In hospital: 53,839 (-1,377)
    – In ICU: 14,728 (-389)

    753,739 total deaths now

  50. C/the Guardian

    “The head of the Australian Medical Association, Dr Omar Khorshid, has responded to the comments made by the AMA’s Victorian branch that those who do not believe Covid-19 is real or a threat should update their advanced care directives and inform their relatives that they do not wish to receive care in the public health system if diagnosed with the virus.

    Khorshid said doctors will always provide care to patients, even those who choose not to get vaccinated.”

    Seems to be a prerequisite for AMA senior management to be quoted at every opportunity and even seek out opportunity. It is cringeworthy.

Comments Page 26 of 49
1 … 25 26 27 … 49

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *