Seemingly nothing doing on the polling front this week, though I would have thought we were due the monthly Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald. That may yet come – perhaps even very shortly – given the publisher’s unpredictable past treatment of it. I need a new post sooner than that though, so here are some relevant recent developments:
• Anthony Albanese has reportedly told his party to be prepared for the possibility that Scott Morrison will call an election for December 11 after he returns from the Glasgow climate summit early next month. Andrew Clennell of Sky News describes this as a “ploy”, and says the genuine view within Labor is that the election will most likely be held in March. Kevin Bonham notes that the proximity of this date to Christmas and New Year would complicate the protracted process of Senate counting, and that it would not allow time for new laws requiring registered parties to have at least 1500 members to take effect.
• The Victorian Supreme Court has thrown out a legal challenge against the Labor national executive’s takeover of the Victorian branch’s federal preselection process. This had been pursued by the factional bloc of the Right associated with Bill Shorten, which The Age reports is considering an appeal. Assuming the ruling holds, it confirms the preselection of former state party secretary Sam Rae in the new seat of Hawke, and allows the party to proceed with other federal preselections that have so far been in limbo.
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports that candidates for Liberal preselection in Hughes are likely to include Jenny Ware, moderate-backed director of legal services at Georges River Council, and that there is also likely to be a factional conservative in the field. This complicates matters for Melanie Gibbons, who will quit her state seat of Holsworthy to run, and has the backing of Scott Morrison.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• There is now a fifth state by-election on the way in New South Wales, and the first in a Labor-held seat, after Jodi McKay announced her intention to resign five months after losing the leadership to Chris Minns. This will create a vacancy in her seat of Strathfield, which she held at the 2019 election by a 5.0% margin. Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports potential preselection candidates include Sravya Abbineni, multiculturalism adviser at NSW Government Health and former staffer to McKay; John Faker, mayor of Burwood; and Jennifer Light, the party’s national assistant secretary.
• The Nationals have preselected Nichole Overall, a local historian, communications consultant and freelance writer, to succeed John Barilaro as the party’s candidate in Monaro.
• In addition to the previously noted Gail Giles-Gidney, the mayor of Willoughby, the Sydney Morning Herald reports candidates for the preselection to succeed Gladys Berejiklian in Willoughby will include Tim James, factional conservative and executive general manager of the Menzies Research Centre.
Australians should not forget or forgive Federal and NSW lib/nats for the delta Variant spreading
Morrison and his cronies hold the record for the longest closed borders
Australia’s International Borders 30March 2020 – 2 Nov 2021
“ An argument could be made that Australia is ‘just the largest of a group of islands that dot the South Pacific’ or something very close to that.”
Yes. But it would be a shit argument. Tasmania perhaps.
Labor is in the box seat this election. The question is whether they’ll be able to cut through Scotty’s daggy dad bullshit, which will be dialled up to 11.
“Opening safely so we can stay safely open” – what a cringeworthy slogan. In any case, the “national plan” is basically out the window and, as predicted, each state will do as they please. Nevertheless, Scotty will be there to take the credit like he always is.
Keep well, OC.
I think Morrison was wrong to persuade National Cabinet to accept the low figure of 70%. There were too many safety qualifications that have not been met and I think we will all suffer for it.
Scott @ #1201 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 9:28 am
Too late. You dont have to be teflon to survive the attacks the Coalition faced in that argument. Especially with all their Winston Wolfs.
Fulvio Sammut @ #1185 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 9:32 am
Well spotted. 🙂
5.9 magnitude earthquake in NZ (revised up again from 5.2); 210km deep, so only rates as a “light” earthquake.
https://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/history/2021p794366
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Friday, October 22, 2021 at 10:02 am
“ An argument could be made that Australia is ‘just the largest of a group of islands that dot the South Pacific’ or something very close to that.”
Yes. But it would be a shit argument. Tasmania perhaps.
____________
Are we not an Island, surrounded by Oceans and seas? Where is the invasion coming from?
Germany has a defence expenditure of 1.28%
Why do we spend significantly more considering the vastness of our isolation?
I see ‘incoherent’ and ‘delusional’ are the new slurs du jour. If it makes you feel better, and superior, Oakeshott Country. Be my guest.
Imagine for a minute what the political landscape would look like if blind trust political donations were de rigueur.
nath, not that I am disagreeing with your point… but there is more to security than preventing invasion.
And… despite being an island… we are a very large and sparsely populated one.
Rumours still abound that Tony Smith will resign. I highly doubt it, but what a sight that would be.
Ultimately, Smith just wants to get to the end of his term unscathed and move into a cushy position at the IPA. As much as he acts with integrity in the chair, he’s just another politician.
Have certain who “contribute” to this site read the National Plan, devised and signed off at National Cabinet?
And the very detailed contribution to “living with the virus” of the Burnet Institute, underpinning the National Plan?
So flexibility with settings, including targeted lockdowns as and if the spread of the virus from human being to human dictates
Because this virus transmits from human being to human being regardless of borders or party political affiliations
The Burnet findings are supported by Grattan, McLaws and others of reputation
And there is no “silver bullet”
There are a raft of disruption strategies – all contributing to the suppression of the spread
But some play politics – anti vaccination then anti masks then into the next anti
The god makes babies demographic
Cue the usual rubbish from the usual suspects…
Sally Sitou – Strathfield Labor
13 hrs ·
I’ve been pre-selected as the Labor candidate for the Federal Seat of Reid tonight. I feel incredibly humbled by the support and trust local ALP members have placed in me.
For me, politics is deeply personal because it’s had such a profound impact on my family.
We are of Chinese heritage, but my parents were born and raised in Laos. They fled their homeland because of the Vietnam War and were incredibly lucky Australia gave them refuge. They worked hard in factory jobs and were able to thrive here.
That was possible because of decisions made by successive governments. Australia is a place that is generous, inclusive and compassionate, a country that I love and will fight to make better.
My parents came here with big dreams and those dreams may end up lifting their daughter to our Federal Parliament.
In turn I want to dream big dreams for my son, I want to hand him a country that is more sustainable, just and equitable, a country where he can see himself reflected in our political representatives.
Thank you for dropping in OC and reassuring us that you are well. I hope you reconsider your decision in time, as all of us contribute to the weird and wonderful community, that is Pollbludger.
Great photo. Cute family. Like the Liverpool FC champions hoodie.
Morrison is a glory thief. I thought that was a no-no in his dogma of choice. Or is that OK in the Pentecostal variant?
sprocket_,
She sounds like a great choice. I wish her all the best. Labor really are coming up with some fantastic candidates.
hazza4257 @ #1213 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 10:15 am
Liberal…he’s just another Liberal.
I saw Sally Sitou’s corflute on the front lawn of ex Reid member John Murphy the other day and thought “what the”. Didn’t realise they had selected a candidate.
Good luck to her, current member Fiona Martin is one of those soft, moderate libs who empathise well when it comes to asylum seekers, climate etc but in reality achieves SFA.
Scott @ #1202 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 10:01 am
Mr Albanese said this morning in a return swipe at the Prime ministers continued sniping at Victoria.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/22/cynical-and-grotesque-nsw-coalmine-allowed-to-use-future-pit-rehabilitation-as-offset-for-habitat-destruction?
Scott @ #1201 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 9:58 am
They already have.
Mundo posted
Mundo
I’m trying to understand your motivation in coming here every day and repeating the same morbid kind of pessimism. Are you by nature someone who just gives up before the race is even run? Or is it somehow therapeutic for you? Are you creating the loss in your mind to pre-empt the possibility of another massive disappointment, such as we all felt last time. Whatever it is, it doesn’t seem like a very rewarding or pleasant way to deal with one’s emotions.
Roy Orbison @ #1183 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 9:26 am
Obviously not unreadable. 🙂
”
demographic
sprocket_says:
Friday, October 22, 2021 at 10:25 am
Cue the usual rubbish from the usual suspects…
Sally Sitou – Strathfield Labor
13 hrs ·
I’ve been pre-selected as the Labor candidate for the Federal Seat of Reid tonight. I feel incredibly humbled by the support and trust local ALP members have placed in me.
For me, politics is deeply personal because it’s had such a profound impact on my family.
We are of Chinese heritage, but my parents were born and raised in Laos. They fled their homeland because of the Vietnam War and were incredibly lucky Australia gave them refuge. They worked hard in factory jobs and were able to thrive here.
That was possible because of decisions made by successive governments. Australia is a place that is generous, inclusive and compassionate, a country that I love and will fight to make better.
My parents came here with big dreams and those dreams may end up lifting their daughter to our Federal Parliament.
In turn I want to dream big dreams for my son, I want to hand him a country that is more sustainable, just and equitable, a country where he can see himself reflected in our political representatives.
”
Did ALP give up on Reid because Sitou appears to be a new entrant to politics. How is involved in ALP politiics?
Atleast her preselection will make Lurker, P1 happy.
Boerwar says:
Friday, October 22, 2021 at 8:50 am
Bill Shorten has blasted a Greens call to halve Australia’s defence spending and scrap the nation’s nuclear submarine deal should the party form a power-sharing government after the next federal election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shorten-blasts-greens-call-for-national-security-cuts-rules-out-power-sharing-deal-20211021-p591yf.html
———————————————
In the past thirty years the Greens have opposed every single item of defence acquisition.
‘Halving’ the defence spend has zero rationality about it. It is standard Greens electoral stunting.
It is also disgraceful negligence.
The Greens are unprepared to defend the territories, the laws and the safety of the people of this country. They have no place in the Parliament. None.
There is most assuredly no place for the Greens in any deal with Labor.
Bystander @ #779 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 10:42 am
It works for me.
Reflecting on rhwhombat’s prediction of March turning to merde on the COVID front, this recent pre-print showing the waning efficacy of vaccines in preventing breakthrough infection (and potential onward transmission) is of note: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.13.21264966v1
Relevant vaccines for Australia are Moderna waning to 64% (95% CI, 62%-66%) and Pfizer waning to 50% (95% CI, 47% to 52%) in preventing breakthough infection. AZ not US approved but likely to be lower again.
In other words, booster doses all round will be essential to enhance the effectiveness of vaccines as the primary mechanism against viral spread. The alternative would be to accept increased death in unvaccinated and vaccinated people over 70 year olds and other subpopulations with poor immune status.
Of course we could maintain mask wearing Australia? Nah!
Stuart Ayres struggling in NSW ICAC , will he be next to resign ?
Ven says:
Friday, October 22, 2021 at 10:43 am
Did ALP give up on Reid because Sitou appears to be a new entrant to politics. How is involved in ALP politiics?
Atleast her preselection will make Lurker, P1 happy.
__________________
Hard to make sense of all this but I will give it a go. I think it’s a smart move by Labor to pre-select Sitou, who judging by her Linkedin is far from a new entrant to politics or Labor.
Seems like a good move to me.
Reid
Its most prominent member was Jack Lang, who served as Premier of New South Wales on two non-consecutive occasions – from 1925 to 1927, and then again from 1930 to 1932. Lang’s second tenure as Premier ended in a constitutional crisis which resulted in Lang becoming the first head of government in Australia to be dismissed from office by a vice-regal representative – a case that has only happened once since, to the federal Whitlam Government in 1975. Lang carried on as New South Wales Opposition Leader until 1939, and remained in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly before transferring to federal politics in 1946. Lang’s sole term as member for Reid was noted for his strong opposition towards the incumbent Chifley Government, though he did support efforts by the Government to nationalise private banks.
Other prominent members have included Tom Uren, who was a prominent Labor figure and minister who also served as Gough Whitlam’s deputy from 1975 to 1977. Uren was succeeded upon retirement by Laurie Ferguson, the son of Jack Ferguson, who was a Deputy Premier of New South Wales, and the brother of Martin Ferguson, a former President of the Australian Council of Trade Unions and a minister in the Rudd and Gillard governments.
The current Member for Reid, since the 2019 federal election, is Fiona Martin, a member of the Liberal Party of Australia.
Reid is a Lib-held marginal that Labor should regard as winnable in a good election.
Great to see a young female candidate of Chinese heritage pre-selected by Labor for this seat.
If Palmer is Porter’s benefactor, WA will turn a deep shade of red at the federal level. At some stage, the truth will out.
Meanwhile, today’s guests in the ICAC hot seat are Ayres & Barnes, not that it’s alleged that they’re crooked.
mundo @ #1226 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 9:38 am
Speak for yourself.
Ven @ Friday, October 22, 2021 at 10:43 am
Although young, Sitou is a serious candidate. Reid is on a 3.2% margin. Labor not giving up at all from what I can see as an external observer. Local v. the sitting member that lives in Mosman. Ex-staffer for Jason Clare, and experienced in campaigning and has a strong media presence.
Should be an interesting seat to watch.
QLD: 5 new confirmed cases in the last 24 hours
Should be a bit more than interesting. If Labor don’t win Reid, they will either be losing or having a very small majority.
Will there even be anyone left in the NSW government by the time ICAC is done? Perhaps they should all just resign en-masse now and save some time.
Well. Shit.
Many opinions on how Morrison’s biblical beliefs affect his decisions, but I think that preserving his position as PM outshines them all.
OC
Your politics are different to mine. But I hope you will reconsider your decision and at least stay in touch. Not all of us think abuse is an acceptable way of communicating.
Good luck and thanks for responding to those who were genuinely concerned about your well being.
Steelydan:
It’s hard to disagree with this one, I have to say.
”
Griffsays:
Friday, October 22, 2021 at 10:48 am
Ven @ Friday, October 22, 2021 at 10:43 am
Although young, Sitou is a serious candidate. Reid is on a 3.2% margin. Labor not giving up at all from what I can see as an external observer. Local v. the sitting member that lives in Mosman. Ex-staffer for Jason Clare, and experienced in campaigning and has a strong media presence.
Should be an interesting seat to watch
”
State seat Strathfield is within the boundaries of Reid. Jodi McKay recently resigned from Strategies prompting a by-election. If Sitou is such a great candidate she must have been preselected for Strathfield. It is great that ALP is selecting a candidate from migrant community.
But it is also vitally important that ALP win marginal seats like Reid to win government.
Stuart Ayres is being caught out so many times in ICAC , ring the bell its over.
Asha @ Friday, October 22, 2021 at 10:59 am
Not a political decision in Victoria – this is CHO? But I, for one, am concerned.
With booster shots becoming necessary and slowly available, we will need to rethink how ‘vaccine passports’ are used and accepted.
For example, will the vaccine passport only be valid if a person vaccinated months previously has had a booster shot? How will an Australian travelling overseas fare under rules imposed by other countries? What requirements will apply to returning travellers and people such as students from overseas?
Has Morrison done anything about this?
OC @ 9:44am
I am relieved to see that you’re ok and am grateful for your part in the COVID response. It is, however, regrettable you feel pushed away from the board like this. It is also regrettable that one of the people directly responsible for you feeling this way chose to respond to your post with more abuse.
If you ever feel up to returning in future, there are plenty of us here who would welcome you back any day, regardless of whether or not we agree on certain political points.
Take care, OC, and hope you’ll pop in now and again.
Cheers.
Ven @ #1227 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 10:43 am
Are you unhappy about her preselection? Why?