Seemingly nothing doing on the polling front this week, though I would have thought we were due the monthly Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald. That may yet come – perhaps even very shortly – given the publisher’s unpredictable past treatment of it. I need a new post sooner than that though, so here are some relevant recent developments:
• Anthony Albanese has reportedly told his party to be prepared for the possibility that Scott Morrison will call an election for December 11 after he returns from the Glasgow climate summit early next month. Andrew Clennell of Sky News describes this as a “ploy”, and says the genuine view within Labor is that the election will most likely be held in March. Kevin Bonham notes that the proximity of this date to Christmas and New Year would complicate the protracted process of Senate counting, and that it would not allow time for new laws requiring registered parties to have at least 1500 members to take effect.
• The Victorian Supreme Court has thrown out a legal challenge against the Labor national executive’s takeover of the Victorian branch’s federal preselection process. This had been pursued by the factional bloc of the Right associated with Bill Shorten, which The Age reports is considering an appeal. Assuming the ruling holds, it confirms the preselection of former state party secretary Sam Rae in the new seat of Hawke, and allows the party to proceed with other federal preselections that have so far been in limbo.
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports that candidates for Liberal preselection in Hughes are likely to include Jenny Ware, moderate-backed director of legal services at Georges River Council, and that there is also likely to be a factional conservative in the field. This complicates matters for Melanie Gibbons, who will quit her state seat of Holsworthy to run, and has the backing of Scott Morrison.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• There is now a fifth state by-election on the way in New South Wales, and the first in a Labor-held seat, after Jodi McKay announced her intention to resign five months after losing the leadership to Chris Minns. This will create a vacancy in her seat of Strathfield, which she held at the 2019 election by a 5.0% margin. Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports potential preselection candidates include Sravya Abbineni, multiculturalism adviser at NSW Government Health and former staffer to McKay; John Faker, mayor of Burwood; and Jennifer Light, the party’s national assistant secretary.
• The Nationals have preselected Nichole Overall, a local historian, communications consultant and freelance writer, to succeed John Barilaro as the party’s candidate in Monaro.
• In addition to the previously noted Gail Giles-Gidney, the mayor of Willoughby, the Sydney Morning Herald reports candidates for the preselection to succeed Gladys Berejiklian in Willoughby will include Tim James, factional conservative and executive general manager of the Menzies Research Centre.
I forgot about Chisholm, Casey, Deakin, Higgins in Victoria, if Morrison continues to be on the nose in Victoria, as he apparently currently is.
Those RAGP posts contain links to some of the debates about the need for/benefits/risks of boosters, well worth pursuing, and I’ll try and do a summary later ron, busy busy.
Questions still on who should get boosters, the risks ( – itis in the heart, mindful of first and second dose responses), when, and what. ‘What’ seems to be Pfizer. No word from Moderna applying for third dose status as far as I can see.
Israel is the one to watch.
Ven
The idiot gets a ‘Nelson Muntz’ from me. He used his ‘freedom’ to choose to be a fool and his stupidity may well have condemned blameless people to the same fate.
Good luck OC and keep well.
I understand how you feel when you say this:
“I have decided to no longer contribute because, for a long time, I have gained no enjoyment in the constant niggles between some of the highly partisan bloggers. Digging the opals of rational political discussion out of this shit is just too hard.”
While I still contribute from time to time, the pettiness of some posters, the inability of others to let someone else have the last word, the propensity of yet others to say the same thing over and over again (and often the same way) and the nasty little digs from some players to the left and right of most posters here designed to trigger reactions, are all too much.
I’m not yet in the mood to leave, and I can still glean some excellent stuff here, but it is quite a sad place at the moment for the most part.
C@t
“I think the opposite is the case with candidates. A bad one can really turn people off.”
Definitely. Like the dud the Libs ran in Greenway in 2013. Yikes, he was terrible. He probably saved the seat for Labor.
The Wagga shooting gallery has a lot of merit because it keeps the gunslingers off the streets?
I think the Liberals could hang onto Casey if they choose a Moderate and not an Ultra Conservative Christian Liberal to replace Tony Smith.
Counsel Assisting, by dint of his superficially friendly, non-threatening nature and matter-of-fact manner appears to be softening up the witness, Minister Stuart Ayres.
Perrottet’s correct: it’s outrageous not to pursue the Obeids for their ill-gotten gains. As much as the $30m should be recovered as should any interest derived thereof but NSW should take precedence over the ATO in the recovery process. But I daresay, they have transferred their real property & other interests to family members, in the knowledge that they’d go down.
[‘NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has vowed to take action against the Obeid family, who will keep $30 million in proceeds of crime despite family patriarch Eddie Obeid and his son Moses being sentenced to jail terms on Thursday for their role in a crooked coal deal.
Mr Perrottet responded to the Herald’s exclusive report that while the NSW Crime Commission could have proceeded against the family for confiscation of their ill-gotten gains, it was decided that the Tax Office would instead pursue them just for the tax that should have been paid on the money.
Mr Perrottet told 2GB radio on Friday morning he had “no idea” until he read the story on the Herald on Thursday night and had sought urgent advice from the Crime Commission.
“You can’t act corruptly, you can’t make $30 million and keep it,” he said. “It’s outrageous if that’s the case.”
Mr Perrottet said he had received some interim advice, “that is apparently that the ATO got in first and they don’t believe that there will be any funds left over. I certainly want to check that [there are no proceeds remaining.”]
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/unacceptable-nsw-premier-seeks-urgent-advice-as-obeid-family-keeps-millions-despite-jail-terms-20211022-p5928d.html
https://www.crimecommission.nsw.gov.au/files/confiscations_fact_sheet.pdf
Asha
Here in Sydney the inner city local councillors are very well known. Especially Sydney, Woollahra, Waverly. The first because of Clover and high profile Liberal opponents. The other two because there are quite a few local issues that are prominent (anti-amalgamation & ‘keeping out the riff-raff’).
OC, go well. Keep well.
It’s just big party. Much to enjoy, much to ignore, something to say, something to disagree with, people to seek, others to avoid, rah rah ta boomdeeay.
Come back after a break.
… and tatts. Don’t forget the tatts.
Ayres thinks he doing swimmingly under this cross-examination.
BB:
I’m getting a bit worried about Ayres’ ability to recall events. Sad to see a failing memory in one so young.
Ayres’ evidence doesn’t exactly gel with that of earlier witnesses.
And he’s using the “I don’t recall” line a little too much. That’s not to suggest he shares anything in common with the corrupt Maguire, and the allegedly corrupt Berejiklian:
[‘Trade and Industry Minister Stuart Ayres is being asked at the ICAC why it was urgent for the government to consider a proposal in late 2016 to spend millions of dollars upgrading the facilities of the Australian Clay Target Association in Wagga Wagga.
Mr Ayres was then the Sport Minister and asked the NSW Office of Sport to prepare an urgent funding proposal to be considered by cabinet’s expenditure review committee.
Counsel assisting the ICAC, Scott Robertson, asked if it was unusual for the committee to consider a “single digit million-dollar project” around the $5 million mark, and suggested it was a “relatively small amount of money” in the context of a “very large budget”.
The alternative was to wait until the following year for it to be considered as part of the usual budget process.
But Mr Ayres said the proposal was more urgent because of a world championship clay shooting event in 2018.
The ICAC has previously heard evidence from other witnesses that the world championship event did not require the association to upgrade its facilities.
Mr Ayres said the cabinet submission made clear the event was already proceeding in 2018, such that “the event wasn’t contingent on the project”.
Mr Ayres is not accused of wrongdoing but the ICAC is investigating the circumstances in which the grant was made.
As we have noted previously, former NSW Liberal MP Daryl Maguire, the then member for Wagga Wagga, advocated for years for funding for the Australian Clay Target Association.
Mr Ayres had initially told Mr Maguire in March 2016 that he did not have a pool of funding available for the proposal.’] – SMH.
Yes, and he is assuring Counsel that he has genuinely lost his recall, and that political considerations played no part in his recommending the project.
Well, THAT’S a relief!
Just responding to briefly’s cut and paste history of the seat of Reid.
It is fundamentally misleading. That is no criticism of briefly, who writes from WA, but Reid was until 2009 was centred on Auburn Lidcombe. What happened in the redistribution that preceded the 2010 election was that the seat of Lowe (centred on Strathfield) was abolished and the boundaries of Reid shifted nearly entirely to the east to absorb the old seat of Lowe. John Murphy, the sitting MP for Low, retained the seat but with a 2% margin, only to lose it in 2013 with an 8% swing against Labor. There have been slight swings back to Labor over the last two elections and it now sits on a 2.3% margin.
From Wikipedia:
“ The division is located in the inner-western suburbs of Sydney, and includes the suburbs of Abbotsford, Breakfast Point, Cabarita, Canada Bay, Chiswick, Concord, Concord West, Five Dock, Flemington, Homebush, Homebush West, Liberty Grove, Mortlake, Newington, North Strathfield, Rhodes, Rodd Point, Russell Lea, Strathfield, Sydney Olympic Park, Wareemba, and Wentworth Point; and includes parts of Ashfield, Auburn, Burwood, Croydon, Drummoyne, Homebush Bay, Lidcombe, Silverwater, and Spectacle Island.”
In my view, having variously lived, worked and campaigned with boundaries of the current seat of Reid for the past 30 years, for Labor to win Reid (which has gentrified somewhat – although there have always been gentrified pockets going back to federation and before) four things must occur simultaneously:
1. There needs to be a substantial national swing to labor;
2. There needs to be a good candidate. What makes for a good candidate very much depends on the circumstances. John Murphy was a log, but the good burghers of Lowe (Reid) found him relatable.
3. Labor needs to get a swing back from the large and influential migrant community in Five Dock that hail from the Aeolian Islands off the north coast of Sicily. Folk like former Labor members (state and federal) Michael Maher, John Murray, John Murphy and Angela DeMore did good jobs in holding that community, buts since then they have swung liberal to a certain degree.
4. The Korean Community of North Strathfield have to come on board.
Now, whether a daughter of Chinese refugees from Laos can achieve 3 and 4 remains to be seen. There is a view amongst certain politicos that certain migrant communities were resistant to embracing migrants from other communities as political candidates and that therefore the best candidate in a diverse migrant electorate is in fact an Anglo. I’m intrigued to see what happens in Reid. assuming that the Labor candidate is not a log, is personable and has all the personal qualities to be strong on the campaign trail, then comparing the swing in Reid to the national swing will be fascinating. If the swing to Labor is the same or greater than the rest of the state or country, then we can perhaps put this political theory to rest. We can confidently say that the electorate can rise above any biases from one ethnic commute towards another (perhaps even conclude that the prejudices are a myth). If on the other hand Labor performs worse in Reid than nationally, well that would be … sad. At the very least.
It really is sad to see how many Liberal politicians have fallen victim to early-onset Alzheimer’s.
Palmer/Kelly want more hospitals – presumably to accommodate all the unvaxxed patients they are creating.
Funny though, the smile on the dial seems to have run a mile. Ayers is concentrating now, perhaps even with a little frown on his face, as Counsel sums up his evidence so far. Counsel wants to “be quite clear” on these matters. REAL clear, actually.
Uh-oh… new documents are being introduced…
So ACTA wasn’t put up for consideration because of the loss of the state seat in the area at all? It was because of an event in March 2018…even though there was a perfectly good venue left over from the 2000 Olympics in Sydney.
I’m not tuned in – it becomes too addictive – but am reassured that one can remember that what one can’t remember was definitely remembered to not be a political decision.
Asha @ #1318 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 12:32 pm
Too sad. I suggest before being appointed as a minister, members undergo thorough cognitive function testing, repeated annually, to chart this decline.
Stuart Ayres’ seat of Penrith is held on a very narrow margin. Could be quite bad for the state government if he’s forced to resign.
Counsel Assisting, Scott Robertson, is relentless.
It’s probably just SC Technique, but he makes sure one question follows another without hesitation or delay. The witness is not given a chance to relax.
He implies that he knows far more about the matters under consideration than any of the people involved in them; that he knows EXACTLY where his line of questions is leading, and that it may not be a good place for the witness.
All while giving the impression that he is no more emotional about any of this than he would be buying a bus ticket.
It is a joy to watch Counsel Assisting, with very carefully constructed language, slowly lead witnesses down a particular hole and then table an exhibit to nail them.
Shellbell @ Friday, October 22, 2021 at 12:04 pm
This is the very reason for the AMA. It is a lobby group par excellence. Hard to say whether the Pharmacy Guild or the AMA is better at their job.
OC
By the power vested in me, you will remain and keep posting informatively.
I see that OC posted a whinge about “constant niggles” etc here earlier today.
For the record I was disgusted at OC’s attempts at bullying directed at myself in the early half of last year. He also removed himself from credibility by displaying arrogance and incivility on a matter where he has no expertise and I do.
Another tax on my scroll wheel with little to say that was substantive or insightful. May he serve a useful purpose wherever he is..
Shame there was not this live hearing when the 10 libs who took coin from developers was on before ICAC.
Barristers sledging each other, sotto voce (with not much sotto) name calling, Commissioner vainly trying to keep the peace.
Wow, it seems like the Libs and their advisers were using a lot of colourful language in their emails to each other to describe what Stuart Ayres contends were simply anodyne discussions and decisions. 🙂
No one can remember anything, how do they run their departments!
The RSL used to be extremely good lobbyists but they seem to have fallen by the wayside. Perhaps it is because they were dominated by dinosaurs like Bruce Ruxton, created too many poker machine palaces or seemed to have no interest in Vietnam war veterans. In any case, other organisations have emerged to assist military veterans.
Of course, the most successful lobbyists are those who deliberately stay well out of the limelight.
TPOF
I like a lot of your posts. I agree, its often not a pleasant environment here although I will say there were periods this year when this blog was constructive, collegial and even fun. Those periods were marked by the absence of a small handful of (lets call it for what it is) people who delight in provocation, consider politics a sport and worse, they provide a sickening display of the worst of humanity and the worst of right wing values. “I’m all right, fuck you” sums them up well.
Cud Chewer @ #1328 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 1:09 pm
Yet if you were simply to go on the outpouring of sympathy for the guy that we have seen here today you would have to be convinced of what an angel he truly is! 🙄
I can still recall vividly the way he would gang up with Lars von Trier against me to make snide remarks and assertions, all of which were 100% false, but oh how they laughed, ahaha.
Apparently, and according to other arrivistes here, I’m the ‘incoherent’, ‘delusional’ and ‘not all there’ one. And I should just get over myself for being hurt by such outrageous suggestions. Equating continuing to be deeply hurt and offended, in a classic of victim blaming, to ‘bearing a grudge’ over it.
Well I’m going to continue to defend myself against such attacks, whether the ‘I’ve been here longer than everyone but Sceptic’ types (as if that conveys validation in some way), or the arrivistes, like it or not.
Thank you, Cud, for pointing out a view which goes against the grain today. Your contributions are worth 100X anything that Oakeshott Country has ever contributed.
They can’t recall that either.
Now that Barilario is no longer in parliament, what will happen to his defamation action against Friendly Jordies?
citizen
I was wondering the same thing.
Today’s Atlantic drop on mixing boosters:
NB It’s the USA, and they are using antibody level as a proxy for vaccine efficacy, mindful there’s a lot more to (cells) to it than that.
The above is an email which I can’t link to, but it is preceded by this article (Oct 15) with the same caveats, for anyone interested:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/10/mix-match-booster-covid-vaccine/620395/?
Speaking of Friendly Jordies………
.
NSW police withdraw bid to gag Friendlyjordies over trial of producer and agree to pay costs
Concession to Jordan Shanks comes just before warning warrant may be issued for John Barilaro staffer over subpoena
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/22/nsw-police-withdraw-bid-to-gag-friendlyjordies-over-trial-of-producer-and-agree-to-pay-costs
It appears the one group that has sustained high levels of immunity and don’t need a booster is that of people who have had Covid and been vaccinated.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/10/mix-match-booster-covid-vaccine/620395/?
ItzaDream @ #1278 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 11:44 am
All well and good, but I am aware of two people eligible for the immunocompromised group who could not find vaccines around as of last Friday.
I’m only posting this as I personally know a principal witness in the trial, who was best mates with the deceased. He told me he did everything he could to wean him off the prisoner but to no avail. She will be sentenced on December, 3:
[‘The culpability of a woman who researched and planned the murder of her partner for months, laying a “false trail” over time to make his death look like a suicide, is “so extreme” it can only be met by a lifetime in jail, a court has been told.
A NSW Supreme Court jury in June found Natasha Beth Darcy, 46, guilty of murdering Walcha sheep farmer Mathew Dunbar, who died in his bed from helium poisoning in the early hours of August 2, 2017, after ingesting a cocktail of sedatives including a veterinary tranquiliser.
As first responders arrived, Darcy told them it was a suicide, adding that her partner was depressed about his sexuality, his relationship with his mother and a serious leg infection that led to his admission to hospital amid amputation fears weeks earlier.
At a sentence hearing on Friday, Crown prosecutor Brett Hatfield said Darcy’s comments were part of a long-running, “cold-blooded and calculated” plan, and that she had been laying a trail of false evidence for weeks to make Mr Dunbar appear suicidal and ultimately help her get away with his murder.
Mr Hatfield said Darcy’s relationship with the deceased was “exploitative” from the start, with her manipulating him “in many ways”, including to make her the sole beneficiary of his estate. It wasn’t long after she moved into his house that she began researching ways to kill him so that she could inherit it.
He said only the imposition of a life sentence could meet the needs and expectations of the community.
“Her culpability is so extreme because of her planning and persistence,” Mr Hatfield said, along with “the cold-blooded and calculated nature of killing”, and her “purely financial motive”.]
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/life-sentence-sought-for-cold-blooded-and-calculated-killer-natasha-darcy-20211022-p592a8.html
It appears the one group that has sustained high levels of immunity and don’t need a booster is that of people who have had Covid and been vaccinated.
….. those who have recovered from a COVID-19 infection and been vaccinated might be approaching a plateau of immune protection after which “the juice [of a booster shot] is not worth the squeeze,”
______________________
I wonder should we look at that problem in reverse, might it be an idea to get everyone vaccinated then release a less dangerous form of Covid to infect people with.
Covid parties here we come!!!
I’ve not been around much, so apologies if already …
Jordies on the attempt by police to gag him, now withdrawn, (see above, or below)
https://youtu.be/TNJQLn8LU5g
and today’s, going for Fuller
https://youtu.be/iKO1lxfzQA4
Griff @ #1326 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 1:00 pm
Have pharmacies been subsumed into the supermarkets? I rest my case. Equally good, imho. 🙂
citizen @ #1336 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 1:34 pm
Didn’t he say that he was leaving parliament so that he could devote his full attention to fighting it? (I know, I know 😀 )
Jordies – 1
Barilaro – 0
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/22/nsw-police-withdraw-bid-to-gag-friendlyjordies-over-trial-of-producer-and-agree-to-pay-costs
‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Friday, October 22, 2021 at 9:47 am
Boerwar @ #1169 Friday, October 22nd, 2021 – 5:50 am
Bill Shorten has blasted a Greens call to halve Australia’s defence spending and scrap the nation’s nuclear submarine deal should the party form a power-sharing government after the next federal election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shorten-blasts-greens-call-for-national-security-cuts-rules-out-power-sharing-deal-20211021-p591yf.html
———————————————
In the past thirty years the Greens have opposed every single item of defence acquisition.
‘Halving’ the defence spend has zero rationality about it. It is standard Greens electoral stunting.
It is also disgraceful negligence.
This reeks of pluck a number out your arse.
What analysis of our capabilities is it based on?’
———————
Yep.
‘lizzie says:
Friday, October 22, 2021 at 10:38 am
Habitat destruction caused by a new coalmine development in the New South Wales Hunter region will be offset through rehabilitation of the coal pit more than a decade after endangered ecosystems are cleared.’
….’
—————————–
The Liberals and the Nationals are nothing if not creative when it comes to speeding up their contribution to the Anthropocene Extinction Event.
OC
I miss your posts on NI. Best wishes with your contribution to the Covid fight.