Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

No real change from Newspoll, except perhaps to its release schedule.

The Australian has dropped a new Newspoll a fortnight rather than three weeks after the last, perhaps portending a quickening of the schedule as the federal election approaches. Labor’s two-party lead is unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 2% (down one). Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 48% and disapproval to 49%, while Anthony Albanese is steady on 37% and down one to 47%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister edges from 47-35 to 47-34. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1545.

UPDATE: The poll also found 59% approval and 31% disapproval for Australia “building and operating nuclear-powered submarines”, which was put to respondents after an introductory spiel explaining the AUKUS deal. Forty-six per cent felt it would make Australia more secure, compared with 14% less secure and 29% for no difference. Seventy-five per cent rated that China posed a significant threat to Australia’s national security, compared with 15% who did not.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,554 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Jaeger @ #942 Wednesday, October 6th, 2021 – 8:38 am

    Russian actor and director arrive at space station to make first film in orbit

    Pair likely to beat Hollywood project announced by Tom Cruise, Nasa and Elon Musk’s SpaceX

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/05/russian-actor-and-director-prepare-for-space-launch-to-record-first-movie-in-orbit

    But it won’t be as good. And it won’t have the global reach. And it will be in Russian.

  2. Ven @ #939 Wednesday, October 6th, 2021 – 8:28 am


    Cud Chewersays:
    Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 12:47 am
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/05/will-all-submarines-even-nuclear-ones-be-obsolete-and-visible-by-2040

    Remember what I was saying about submarines really serving no purpose post 2040?

    Australia’s proposed nuclear-powered submarines could be obsolete by the time they hit the water in the 2040s due to new technologies making underwater vessels “visible”, some experts argue.

    Don’t tell that to PB’s biggest supporter of this deal. 🙂

    Why? I made the point to poroti yesterday when he brought it up as some sort of, la la la I told you so moment, that you know it applies to the Chinese as well?

  3. C@tmomma at 9:45 am
    Because the Chinese are going to waste their money then what a cunning plan it is to also waste our money. That’ll learn ’em .

  4. BK
    ‘Bloomberg reports that a missed bond payment by a Chinese developer has reignited investor angst about the health of the nation’s property sector. Chinese junk dollar bonds were poised for their biggest selloff in at least eight years amid renewed concern that authorities will do little to alleviate the credit crisis gripping the industry. Yields are near a decade high.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/china-s-property-sector-in-turmoil-as-another-developer-hits-trouble-20211005-p58xix.html
    ————————————
    I am sure it is all strictly according to Marx, Lenin and the Thought of Xi, but the world’s largest ever property Ponzi scheme is falling apart.

    Following the Evergrande failure to meet interest payments, another three or four major Chinese property developers are having trouble meeting interest payments and/or refinancing their loans.

    Everygrande’s debts are over $400 billion Oz. The synergy is that as the thing begins to implode, property values – collateral to many of the bodgie loans – also spiral down in value as fire sales accumulate.

    So far the Chicommies’ only official response has been to increase the daily incursions into Taiwanese airspace to record daily levels. This is, of course, accompanied with lots of bellicose war mongering, bluster and threats.

    One of the very, very worst reasons for a leader to start a war is to distract his domestic audience.

    China’s Taiwan War Clock is racing towards midnight as we post.

  5. The spike in case numbers in Victoria is down to contact between individuals – the method by which this virus spreads

    So protesters on our streets and Grand Final parties – so law breakers

    And the support the law breaking cohort receive from the Liberal Party, the Party of “law and order”, and their Dictator, Murdoch

    They should be charged with manslaughter

    When Dutton says Victorians are scared to walk the streets we now see exactly why

    Right wing nut jobs the Liberal Party pander to

  6. Shellbell says:
    Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 9:56 am

    Boris Johnson likes Astra Zeneca, but really likes Pfizer.
    ——————–
    Boris loves himself despite all contrary indications.

  7. poroti @ #975 Wednesday, October 6th, 2021 – 9:50 am

    C@tmomma at 9:45 am
    Because the Chinese are going to waste their money then what a cunning plan it is to also waste our money. That’ll learn ’em .

    And the Russians, the Indians, the Japanese etc etc….

    Honestly, I reckon we’ll be leasing subs until such time as that may eventuate. Or. my other theory is a Stealth Sub will be developed. As they say in Physics, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. And if you can work on making something clear, you can work on making it opaque.

  8. Taylormade @ #1217 Wednesday, October 6th, 2021 – 8:06 am

    Couldn’t care less to be honest.
    Patience young grasshopper.

    Note the use of ‘to be honest’. Self recognition that this is a very unusual state for yourself. None of your audience believe that you are ever honest, just like your ‘heroes’, Matthew Guy, Scott Morrison, Fraudenberg et al.

    Classic Trumpism.

  9. Ven:

    Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 8:37 am

    [‘Did Opus Dei came out Scott free in this report?’]

    Ha. The article does not make reference to Opus Dei, but the sect has been crticised for ‘being the most controversial force in the Catholic Church, its secretiveness, the controversial and aggressive recruiting methods, elitism and misogyny, and support of or participation in authoritarian or right-wing governments, including the fascist Franco regime which governed in Spain until 1978’.

    Close scruitiny of Perrottet is therefore requisite. It strikes me that he’ll have difficulty in reconciling his strongly held religious beliefs, based on the teachings of his sect, with all manner of issues including but not limted to assisted dying.

  10. ACTU commissioned polling of 1242 voters across the federal seats of Lindsay and Herbert found 72 per cent, including 50 per cent of Liberal voters surveyed, believed insecure work was being made worse by government and business. @australian

    Can someone with access to the Government Gazette extract this polling – put up in the last hour or so..

  11. Leasing a sub from the US gives the US a free manned sub and us nothing.
    Part of the lease conditions will be when it can and can’t be used.
    It does not add to the total of subs on the allied side.
    It drains money out of Australia.
    It reduces our sovereignty.
    It gets built and serviced overseas.
    IDIOT IDEA.
    I assume that it will therefore prove extremely attractive to Morrison, Payne, Dutton and Frydenberg.
    EVERY.SINGLE.THING.

  12. ‘Shellbell says:
    Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 10:11 am

    Just don’t know why you would voluntarily go to an election in a recession (or something akin to a recession)’
    ————————–
    For the good of the nation, of course.

  13. Shellbell
    Go for an election before it really hits the fan. Before all the promises of a glorious ‘home for xmas’ covid future has to actually be delivered.

  14. sprocket_21 at 10:17 am

    Why is Matthew Guy doing a presser in front of a chook pen?

    Perhaps he did not understand what Joh Bjelke Petersen meant by “Feeding the chooks” . That or he is taking it to a new level.

  15. Here’s one that BK, unaccountably, missed.

    If you reckon your breakfast is well-digested, there’s a stress test I can recommend to discover whether you really do possess a stomach made of cast iron.

    Tony Shepherd goes for Hagiographer Of The Year here: everybody associated with the NSW Liberals, past and present, is brilliant, passionate, caring, committed, loving, clever, dedicated, humble, wise, talented, and incorruptible. Trust Tony on this one. He’s big in the Business Council, you know.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-has-proven-himself-a-worthy-successor-to-berejiklian-20211005-p58xbc.html

    Yes, Dominic Perrotet, less than 24 hours after being sworn in as Premier has ALREADY proved himself to be Gladys’s worthy successor.

    In a piece of writing seeded, one might even say “salted” with golden nuggets, I particularly liked the one where Tony tells us that Dom sold the Motorways at “significant profit to the NSW taxpayer”, omitting to note that said profit will be mercilessly re-extracted from NSW taxpayers – wearing their “commuter motorist” hats – over the next 99 years, at a pre-arranged vig that would make a Mafia loan shark blush with shame.

    If you are still vertical after having followed the link above, I salute you.

    Personally, I have become immobilized in a recliner chair and am unlikely to be able to shift for some time.

  16. sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 10:17 am

    Why is Matthew Guy doing a presser in front of a chook pen?
    _______________________
    Being associated with farmyard animals is a more wholesome look than crustaceans.

  17. @ poroti – Yep, that’s been my logic for a while. Run on what you’ll promise to deliver, rather than risk the uncertainty of running on what you have or haven’t delivered.

    One other consideration – re: polling, I don’t doubt Morrison thinks his polling will improve during a campaign.

  18. Boerwar @ #988 Wednesday, October 6th, 2021 – 10:10 am

    Leasing a sub from the US gives the US a free manned sub and us nothing.
    Part of the lease conditions will be when it can and can’t be used.
    It does not add to the total of subs on the allied side.
    It drains money out of Australia.
    It reduces our sovereignty.
    It gets built and serviced overseas.
    IDIOT IDEA.
    I assume that it will therefore prove extremely attractive to Morrison, Payne, Dutton and Frydenberg.
    EVERY.SINGLE.THING.

    *It gives Australia subs in the water, and America a manned sub or two, in the Indo Pacific, long before any French-manufactured sub could be put in the water.

    * America continues to manufacture more subs and is working on the next generation of subs to also put into the water on an ongoing basis.

    *Our sovereignty is unaffected by using a Virginia Class submarine, for, whilst we are an island, no nation is an island when it comes to defense of our island.

    *The subs that we lease may have been ‘built overseas’ initially but nowhere have I read that they will always be built overseas, in fact I have read the opposite. Hulls built here. Subs serviced here.

    SHALLOW ANALYSIS

  19. No wonder the Victorian lib/nats are heading for a heavy defeat at the upcoming Federal and Victorian state elections

    Playing politics not only with the corona virus , but ani-corruption commissions

  20. Scott @ #1004 Wednesday, October 6th, 2021 – 10:31 am

    No wonder the Victorian lib/nats are heading for a heavy defeat at the upcoming Federal and Victorian state elections

    Playing politics not only with the corona virus , but ani-corruption commissions

    It’s the way Liberals triangulate politics these days. If any Liberals are under a corruption cloud, then get a Liberal in another jurisdiction to rain on Labor’s parade in order to distract and deflect.

  21. Poroti

    “Go for an election before it really hits the fan. Before all the promises of a glorious ‘home for xmas’ covid future has to actually be delivered.”

    Not sure about this. Still I will send myself a bottle of Australian sparkling wine, if, as I have predicted, the Prime Minister does a press conference on Halloween to say the Government has delivered as promised on vaccines and at one of the fastest rates in the world.

  22. Perhaps Guy is showing off his combination trampoline/chook shed arrangement. Sending a message to Morrison that he should buy a trampoline from Bunnings for Jen and the girls to go with his Bunnings chook shed.

  23. And even the armed force cronie who is leading the rollout ,promise of upto 90% of Australians will be fully vaccinated -November 2021

    Will not get close

  24. A sample of the comments re. the article posted by BB:

    [‘whatrot

    Well he would say that, wouldn’t he?

    suzanne howes

    iCare?

    Lucky Lely

    The obsession with privatisation and toll roads will send NSW down the pits.

    Jeanette

    And tomorrow I expect there will be another similarly “glowing” article from The Urban Taskforce, the developers’ lobby group.

    OzObserver

    Who cares what Sheperd thinks…. and besides we already know .

    BuckStopsHere

    If you mean worthy of the same spin, arrogance, lies, deceit and hubris, then we’ve got every reason to worry.

    LindsayMartin

    Missing from the online version is the little statement about the writer’s background. “Tony Shepherd. Contributor.” Well yes, obviously. You can click on his name to go to another page and see “Tony Shepherd is a businessman and former president of the Business Council of Australia”. But in the SMH app even that link is missing. Either way, the attribution should be clearer, especially when he says he has “worked with” Perrotet & Deputy. (Worked on what?) I’m not saying it disqualifies him from contributing, but the reading is different if you know the background of any contributor.’]

    These comments weren’t cherry-picked; they’re in chronological order. The rest are generally similar. I can remember when the SMH was a newspaper of record.

  25. I’m now more concerned about the Nats position on Greenwich’s VAD bill now Barilaro, who said the Nats would support it, has gone. I don’t know how much sway Trevor Khan, a major proponent, has in the party. Perrottet has said he supports a conscious vote. Perrottet and the independent Greenwich have spoken about ‘Government stability’.

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