Roy Morgan has unveiled its unpredictably timed fortnightly federal voting intention poll, which on this occasion shows Labor leading 54-46 – up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, and almost back to the 54.5-45.5 result in the poll before that. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, which entails a three-and-a-half point drop for the Coalition and a one point increase for Labor. With the Greens down half a point to 12.5%, this makes room for an increase in the independents/others category that has been a pattern of recent polling, in this case gaining one-and-a-half points to 12%. One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%.
The state two-party breakdowns show Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of 5.3%; 56-44 in Victoria, a swing of 2.9%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.1%; 58.5-41.5 in South Australia, a swing of 7.8%; and 52-48 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 4.0%, though here the sample gets very small indeed. The Coalition leads only in Queensland, by 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of 5.9%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2752.
Also out this week was the regular fortnightly survey from Essential Research, which does not on this occasion feature the monthly leadership ratings (we are also about due for its roughly quarterly dump of voting intention results). The poll tackles the nuclear submarines issue and related matters, finding 45% believe the deal will make Australia more secure, 36% that it will not affect Australia’s security, and 19% that it will make Australia less secure. Further questions find respondents taking a benign view of the issue generally, and also surprisingly (to me at least) towards nuclear power: 50% say they would support it for electricity generation with 32% opposed.
The poll also has the regular fortnightly questions on federal and state government responses to COVID-19 management, which give the federal government its best numbers since July: good up two points to 45%, poor down five to 30%. The good ratings for the state governments, in descending order of reliability due to diminishing sample sizes, are 53% for New South Wales, up seven; 44% for Victoria, down six; 62% for Queensland, down three; 82% for Western Australia, down five; and 55% for South Australia, down twelve. The latter result is that government’s weakest so far, but here the error bars are particularly wide. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.
“Daniel Andrews thanking tens of thousands of Victorian nurses for their work during the pandemic, including the two who offered valuable insight today. That some will use their appearance to suggest paid actors or political spin is just an awful take. They are angels.”
Ironically, a lot of this mendacious ‘fake nurse’ commentary will come from fake tradies and fake construction workers who roll up to the anti-lockdown protests.
ItzaDream,
“She” may have been an immature male – green Satin Bowerbirds fall into the “not an adult male” category for me.
I’m glad she/he is okay; there’s nothing worse than the sickening thud of a bird hitting a window.
Good Afternoon.
If you think the Greens are not going to keep the pressure on about a Federal ICAC with teeth you need your head read.
I personally think Labor is doing the NSW model. Trial by media problems will be the media’s problem not Labor’s. All investigations are tested in court. The ICAC is the police or prosecutor deciding to investigate not a guilty or not guilty itself.
Don’t get upset at the Greens keeping the pressure on. . As long as Labor keeps its promise it has nothing to fear.
Mr Levido, the protégé of Lynton – ’Master of the dark political arts’ – Crosby, masterminded Scott Morrison’s victory in Australia last year, very much against the odds (known as the ‘Miracle from Down Under’). After the success, Levido was recruited by Boris Johnson to help run Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ), with all, including Cummings, deferring to him with the rest of the Downing Street team.
https://www.tatler.com/article/who-is-isaac-levido-conservative-election-strategist
Just went for a walk around Redfern.
Redfern Park is chokkers There are 10 portaloos that have been dropped off. The picnics are in full swing with 5 hours to go until the grand final.
We are a strange suburb – the old and the new – but everyone loves Redfern and the bunnies. Banners and flags everywhere.
The house down the road with 4 generations is partying in the front year, with “Glory to South Sydney” belting out. bPeople are stopping to take photos.
The party atmosphere is nice. It reminds me of living in Santiago. Most people would gather for picnics as it was much cheaper than an afternoon in the pub, and football featured heavily.
Hopefully people can socially distance enough to not spread the plague!
lizzie @ #2100 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 2:49 pm
I welcome the feed back lizzie. But, we’ve past that stage, for better or worse, and nature is running its course. We get quite a few too, and the cardboard box recovery room is a good suggestion, thanks.
Jaeger
“I’m more concerned about how many new cases there’ll be from the match (and parties) than the result.
You’re not alone there. The inner-city heartland of Rabbitohs territory is already a covid hotspot.
guytaur
The Greens are working hard to make ICAC political poison, much like a price on carbon.
Hopefully Labor to not succumb to the pressure and we get a working ICAC, I have no doubt if Greens have the balance of power in the senate it will not happen, unfortunate but that is the reality of Australian politics.
Because I believe we need to deal with the corruption I have three wishes:
1) Labor wins power.
2) Labor introduces ICAC legislation.
3) The Greens do not have the balance of power in the senate to prevent its passage.
guytaur,
The ALP have promised a NSW style ICAC if they win. they took this policy to the last election.
Why on earth do the Green need to make a fuss about this – to pretend that a NSW style ICAC is not Labor policy?
ItzaDream
I was a little surprised to learn (far from the instant attention shown in vet-pet programs) that the standard treatment in the average vet surgery is to leave the bird in a dark box overnight to see if it survives the shock of injury. Very practical, I suppose.
Jaeger @ #2102 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 2:52 pm
Thanks for that. It makes more sense. I’ve been wondering if the window hit was as ‘she’ was being pursued. A young competitive male would be a good reason why.
Frednk
I say you are peddling bullshit again.
At this stage it doesn’t matter. The more parties that publicly advocate for a Federal ICAC the better.
Just promise the NSW model and no party will be able to credibly block campaigning on it.
Edit:
D & M
Past record has engendered cynicism. As long as Labor keeps it’s promise it doesn’t matter as it won’t damage Labor. Voters who don’t trust Labor are going to vote for accountability of a minor party or independent anyway
The people regretting the resignation of Gladys Berejiklian are all from suburbs that have benefitted from her government’s largesse.
In many other places she is despised.
The local well known social gospel church near me had “Bye Bye Gladys!” on its chalkboard. (Raglan St, Fess, if you happen to be out for a walk).
The provide a lot of support to the homeless, and know how her government has gutted homelessness services. And know that I know Prue Goward is her friend, it figures. Goward gutted woman’s domestic violence services and shelters.
These two woman may have been competent, but the cruelty for me was just breathtaking.
Itza, lovely photo. I really hope the Blower bird is Ok. they are beautiful.
Sorry I forgot to add. Labour has a response for the Greens. Labour voted for the Greens ICAC bill in the Senate.
guytaur,
So the Greens cannot even do bipartisan with Labor on a NSW-style ICAC.
There are plenty of other policy areas for them to differentiate themselves without playing spoilers.
Edit: I mean in the lead-up to the next Federal election. Surely the Greens want to get rid of the Liberals – or only if they are part of the new Government?
Because that is how they are coming across to me.
From the Guardian blog.
The National Breast Cancer Foundation has warned of delays in breast cancer testing and detection, due to the pandemic.
AAP have the story:
Delays in diagnosis and treatment of Australian’s most common cancer will have lasting consequences beyond the coronavirus pandemic, the National Breast Cancer Foundation warns.
The foundation has marked the start of Breast Cancer Awareness Month by forewarning an expected rise in later-stage breast cancer diagnoses in years to come, noting surgical delays of 12 weeks can result in 500 more breast cancer deaths a year.
It estimates there could be between 1300 and 2600 missed or undiagnosed breast cancer cases based on Cancer Australia data released this week.
The number of rescheduled appointments and the closure of BreastScreen across some states meant screening fell by roughly 98 per cent in 2020.
Meanwhile, diagnostic and investigative surgeries dropped by up to a third in the first wave of COVID-19.
Foundation chief executive Sarah Hosking said there should be investment in researching the significant impact of COVID-19 and delays in detection.
“With the expected increase in hard-to-treat breast cancer diagnoses in years to come, the time is now to re-focus on accomplishing zero breast cancer deaths and the additional funding required to reach that goal,” Professor Hosking said.
“Breast cancer will not wait for COVID-19 to end.”
Will Crozier come onto the news tonight whinging the Breast Screen services are closed when they are, in fact, open.
Redfern Today:
Tim Pallas aced it yesterday, in Vic’s daily update, yet it seems Tim Pallas’ accusations about the PM for NSW has sunk without a trace, apart from this:
https://www.9news.com.au/national/victoria-coronavirus-update-construction-funding-package-federal-government-favouritism-nsw/b22309c7-9398-47c2-a564-4023b801dabf22
But that was only half the story, The reporter neglected to mention the figures.
Anyway, I can’t provide those figures, and they were substantial, but you’d have to look at yesterday’s Vic Gov Covid presser.
Despicable behaviour by the Fed Gov.
lizzie at 2:55 pm
Re the Tatler magazine article. They nailed their colours to the mast when it came to the market the magazine is pitched at with this section 😆
https://www.tatler.com/article/tiara-of-the-month-the-astor-sancy-tiara
Maybe. 🙂
Adult male SBs don’t acquire their lovely plumage until they are seven years old – that’s a long time! Presumably green (sub-adult) male SBs are learning the ropes in the meantime. They build their own bowers – which the dominate adult male in the area happily plunders. Female SBs only have eyes for the lovely blue-black plumage of an adult male, so a “greeny” trying it on is unlikely to succeed.
I liked the Pattersonia sp. flower in the second photo. Did it have white patches on the petals, or did the camera sensor freak out?
D&M
Labor actively campaigns against the Greens too. It’s like Labor wants the LNP to win comes right back at you.
The truth is the Greens campaigned in the same way in 07. It’s Labor’s attitude to the Greens that has changed not the Greens campaign tactics. I think it’s over reaction due to Labor changing policies that has let it be wedged by the LNP.
Labour assumes the Greens competition means the Greens are campaigning for the LNP and can’t see the difference they used to be able to see. It’s a worrying lack of confidence by Labor in its ability to campaign.
Satire? I can’t tell any more. :-/
Can always find one of these in the shrubs around the edge of the garden. The dogs, cats, geese and chickens don’t seem to cause any hassles —
I particularly like the jonquils.
Sky News’ Andrew Clennell has been on Berejiklian’s case for a while. Here’s his take on Friday’s events:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIjcSv4SJeI
Jaeger,
All the experts are tipping Penrith. Baby, I just don’t care! Go the Bunnies!
Mavis @ Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 3:45 pm
It is a reasonable analysis. It is not the crime. It is the coverup.
C@t,
Penrith are by far the stronger team, but who knows.
Maybe we do not want Albo to use up all his luck today 🙂
I have little interest in Rugby League, but moving to South Sydney has made me see it though very different eyes. I am now a thorough Rabbitohs fan.
Possibly not enough to watch the game thought.
Go the Bunnies.
Also, two of my offspring are mad Penrith supporters – the other two take after me and don’t really care.
Last time Redfern won the grand final I was in the air. Landed in Sydney the day after the biggest street party the suburb had ever had, I’m told.
Tonight it will all have to be suitably socially distanced, if we get lucky.
Thinking about it a little more, the relevant phone taps started prior to the 2018 ICAC notification. Gladys Berejiklian should have known the game was up then and there. But even then, supporting the enquiry may have been too late, not to be drawn in.
ItzaDream @ #2080 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 2:42 pm
Itza, and everybody, please meet my friend Dilbert, a delightful Crested Pigeon (Ocyphaps lophotes), rescued as a little ball of fluff from the mouth of a cat. Hand fed on oatbran and crushed seed mush through a rubber glove finger with a hole in it, then same mush in a little plastic lid, then just seeds, baby peas and broccoli shavings. Now fully grown, and a delightful personality. Voice has gone from barely audible soprano ‘peeps’, to now a melodious ‘whoop’.
He lives in the kitchen and an outside aviary, with excursions around the backyard. Shows no desire to move away, and flies to the top of my head when he wants to come back inside. He sits on top of my head while I work, and is doing so right now. The cap is to protect my bald nut from sharp claws, and the occasional neat little poop.
lizzie @ #2104 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 2:55 pm
Plus the ‘gentlemen’ from Topham Guerin.
Griff:
Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 3:53 pm
Mavis @ Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 3:45 pm
[‘It is a reasonable analysis. It is not the crime. It is the coverup.’]
Yes, agree – Nixonian in substance. Clennell, to his credit, hasn’t held back at Berejiklian’s pressers, much to her annoyance. Here’s an example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPBPVyrX0Jc
Douglas and Milko,
Coming from the Mountains I thought you would be Penrith through and through! Even though you now live in Bunny country. Happy to have you aboard the Bunny train though.
Have I told you the story about who my step dad’s uncle was? Clive Churchill himself! My step dad went into lifesaving and not football and that’s where my mum met him after her shotgun marriage broke up in the early 1960s. Bondi. He was a Bondi Lifesaver.
His father, who was the brother of Clive Churchill’s wife, and who lived in Kingsford, helped create the Souths Juniors supporters club.
My parents have been to most of the Souths Grand Final games since the 60s. And they always had front row seats. 🙂
They’d go today if they could but they’re in their 80s now. 🙁
My mum said, ‘I hope they win today because I think it might be the last time I ever get to watch them again in a grand final.’
I hope they win today, too.
G’day Dilbert. 😀
I remember when Cresties became established in Canberra (and elsewhere):
http://canberrabirds.org.au/our-birds/canberra-garden-birds/pigeons-and-doves/crested-pigeon/
I’m hoping that Superb Parrots pull the same trick – they need a break.
Canberra becoming superb parrot central for not-so-superb reasons
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-07/canberra-superb-parrot-changing-habitat/9207150
Mavis,
I suggest you repost that Clennell interview over on the Gladys thread as well.
Seems that Gladys lied about the existence of the relationship with McGuire under oath and clearly did not report what she knew to ICAC as she is required under law.
The only mitigation might be partners not being required to give evidence against their spouse. But, that’s going to be a stretch.
What are the penalties that Gladys is likely to face?
For C@t
(not that I am a fan of George Piggins)
D&M,
Not sure how you judge Penrith to be “by far” the stronger team given the two teams played three weeks ago and Souths won. The money is slightly Penrith’s way but this is as close to 50/50 as it gets. Both teams have massive packs but Souths have some absolutely murderous defenders. The ones opposition players have a quick look for before taking the ball up. One of them is off to St G-Ill next year so he will be going “all in”. Jayden Su’a. They don’t like facing him and he won’t be leaving anything out there because his next GF is a long way off. Maybe never..
Douglas and Milko @ #2137 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 4:18 pm
🙂
Thanks, D & M.
Did you know that George Piggins is Albanese’s hero?
C@t
Lovely story.
My dad was a Katoomba boy, and so he supported the local team, Parramatta, “The Bushies”.
He never saw the attraction in Penrith. I think that by 1967, when Penrith was admitted to the League, he felt is was all commercialised.
He should see it all today of course!
Roy Orbison,
Roy Masters predicted Souths by 7 today.
How lucky are you, eh? Going to be oh so close to the new home ground the Bunnies are building in Maroubra!
Douglas and Milko,
The best victory Souths ever had was over Kerry Packer when the voices of the people forced him and the ARL to let Souths back into the comp. 😀
Oh noes.
Infowars host Alex Jones loses defamation cases over Sandy Hook shooting ‘hoax’ conspiracy
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-03/alex-jones-sandy-hook-hoax-conspiracy-judge-rules-liable/100510636
GG
[Seems that Gladys lied about the existence of the relationship with McGuire under oath and clearly did not report what she knew to ICAC as she is required under law.]
Sounds like a new allegation
[The only mitigation might be partners not being required to give evidence against their spouse. But, that’s bgoing to be a stretch.]
Wouldn’t apply as role of ICAC is just to find offence or not.
[What are the penalties that Gladys is likely to face?
None beyond adverse finding or that matter could be referred to DPP.
Mavis @ Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 4:05 pm
Thank you for that clip. A very interesting response to the question regarding what it would take to step down as Premier. “When I have done something wrong”. I guess that tells us in her own words why she stepped down now. But it doesn’t explain the timing, which is more in keeping with what Clennell posits i.e. WTTE she is a leader that is not about right or wrong, but whether she will get caught
C@t,
No. And he probably has some redeeming features because he got Souths, who I now know is the Indigenous team, back into the competition.
All I know of Piggins is the politics surrounding the redevelopment of Redfern oval. He was portrayed by the local media as the villain, but I think the whole story was more complex that I knew.
Roy,
I am really showing my ignorance now.
My Panthers supporting son told me today that Souths would be no competition. I should have evaluated his phrase more critically.
There seems to be a thing about right-wing parties (and their MSM backers) demanding the place be opened up despite Covid. Another thing is that right-wing parties lacking the majority support of voters seem to be screaming the loudest.
Currently we have the Victorian Liberals, ACT Liberals, Queensland LNP and New Zealand Nationals all screaming along the lines of “freedom” and “let it rip”.
In NZ the electorally moribund National Party is trying to stir up resentment at the Auckland lockdown (and probably encouraging risky behaviour).
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/126566565/auckland-seems-set-to-remain-in-covid19-alert-level-3-lockdown-as-the-virus-appears-across-the-border-in-waikato
Griff @ #2145 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 4:26 pm
I think this is the key. Iirc, the Premier is informed by the ICAC of persons under investigation and the evidence they have. Which is her in this instance. So she would have evaluated the evidence and acted accordingly.
Jaeger @ #2124 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 3:40 pm
The Tatler magazine has always been aimed at the upper and upper middle class. Lots of pics of “society” women and their fashions plus the inside of posh houses.