Roy Morgan has unveiled its unpredictably timed fortnightly federal voting intention poll, which on this occasion shows Labor leading 54-46 – up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, and almost back to the 54.5-45.5 result in the poll before that. Both major parties are on 36% of the primary vote, which entails a three-and-a-half point drop for the Coalition and a one point increase for Labor. With the Greens down half a point to 12.5%, this makes room for an increase in the independents/others category that has been a pattern of recent polling, in this case gaining one-and-a-half points to 12%. One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%.
The state two-party breakdowns show Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, for a swing of 5.3%; 56-44 in Victoria, a swing of 2.9%; 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, a swing of 10.1%; 58.5-41.5 in South Australia, a swing of 7.8%; and 52-48 in Tasmania, a swing to the Coalition of 4.0%, though here the sample gets very small indeed. The Coalition leads only in Queensland, by 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of 5.9%. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2752.
Also out this week was the regular fortnightly survey from Essential Research, which does not on this occasion feature the monthly leadership ratings (we are also about due for its roughly quarterly dump of voting intention results). The poll tackles the nuclear submarines issue and related matters, finding 45% believe the deal will make Australia more secure, 36% that it will not affect Australia’s security, and 19% that it will make Australia less secure. Further questions find respondents taking a benign view of the issue generally, and also surprisingly (to me at least) towards nuclear power: 50% say they would support it for electricity generation with 32% opposed.
The poll also has the regular fortnightly questions on federal and state government responses to COVID-19 management, which give the federal government its best numbers since July: good up two points to 45%, poor down five to 30%. The good ratings for the state governments, in descending order of reliability due to diminishing sample sizes, are 53% for New South Wales, up seven; 44% for Victoria, down six; 62% for Queensland, down three; 82% for Western Australia, down five; and 55% for South Australia, down twelve. The latter result is that government’s weakest so far, but here the error bars are particularly wide. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1094.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/09/30/morgan-54-46-to-labor-7/comment-page-40/#comment-3718162
A while ago I went quarterlies, weekly longer stories rather than daily to and fro (except for PB’s dawn patrol, especially the cartoons), selective newsletters, pretty much stopped watching broadcast news [and subscribed to a few streaming services for movies/ shows] somewhere in the GWOT/ GFC, etc.
I certainly prefer independent or social media over corporate or state media, and have some topics/ keywords set to follow on Netvibes, even Google News, Apple News, LinkedIn … though sometimes use iView. SBS unfortunately has ads on its online service.
After the kids finished high school I stopped using Fxyzbook, Instagram, Whatsapp.
(Any devices have do not track options set. And I have several VPNs in case the gummint of the day or rights holders feel like blocking some content, that’s free to access elsewhere.
On email I now have anti-nasties/ SPAM defence on my domain, first ISP, second ISP, relevant device. I might go through junk mail once a month.
I certainly don’t seem to have much need for bleeding edge, fast follower, if may be early majority technology …)
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 10:34 am
Constance is not a Gilmore local.
Waiting for the inevitable media pile on about the party parachuting an outsider into the seat. … any time now … any time …
Looking forward to firefox’s post on the subject. Firefox going and on and on about it for a week, not so much.
Bystander,
The NineFax articles can be read by opening a private window in your browser, and reading PB there. When you get to the Dawn Patrol, you can right click to open the links in a new private tab, or just click directly on the link.
Our sorely missed Kay Jay knew how to get around the AFR, but I do not have a trick for that.
michael says:
Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 11:05 am
Dan with 1220 cases, NSW with 667 cases today. And the so-called intelligent of here say Dan’s is a hero and NSW are a bunch of idiots.
Great pity those that read the herald/sun and listen to the Liberal’s crap also transmit covid.
lizzie @ #1943 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 12:07 pm
Did they have Hi Vis in their wardrobe or a Telegram account? 😐
38 cases in the ACT. NSW, Vic and ACT are all down, but this is the middle day of a long weekend, so the numbers might be low. Even so, the positive test percentages are down (on a lower number of tests).
“Dan’s numbers should really be added to Gladys’ (RIP) numbers.”
Victoria had beaten back a local Delta outbreak in May and early June, only to be re-seeded from NSW. The ACT was virtually Covid-free for a year before being seeded from NSW in August. NZ was also re-seeded from NSW. Qld was getting the odd one or two cases, but most cases from August were seeded from NSW.
The size of the “Bondi cluster” is now about 81,600, with 425 deaths.
Hello,
Too nervous today. Can’t sit still and think straight (what’s new say some?)
Go the mighty Bunnies!
U.S. COVID update: Daily cases drop 13 days in a row
– New cases: 48,873 ………………………. – New deaths: 653 ( weekend figures )
– In hospital: 72,542 (-1,580)
– In ICU: 20,016 (-433)
719,674 total deaths now
The nurse’s description of days of wearing PPE, of emotional trauma from counselling the dying, and their pressure injuries from the masks, make the whinging about lockdown restrictions pretty offensive.
Watching Andrews this morning (and on other occasions), he is brilliant
This is (also) the reason why the likes of Murdoch attack him
He is just too good for them
Now, given my working career, I have had the privilege of associating with people I rate as brilliant (and at the other end) and still do (so looking forward to resuming lunches and other social settings)
So the attaching caveat is that I have never met Andrews
But I see him as do others – thru media
And then to media
Exactly how dumb are they?
Obviously, once the restricted reasons to leave home are relaxed, the Essential Worker status lapses and the broader vaccination requirements come into play – for all of us
And active cases are a two way street, numbers come off and numbers are added (and hopefully the trend in active cases is downward)
The other observation I would make is that the increase in numbers (as in NSW and the ACT) has actually scared people
And this is a catalyst for vaccination and compliance
And, accordingly, the result will be achieved
As has been the outcome in NSW over the last 3 weeks since numbers peaked there and people just became plain scared of the virus and its spread
And hence the rush to vaccination by our younger cohort (plus that vaccine is now available – again referencing Grattan and Turnbull among the majority of others)
As Hazzard has just said, hopefully to Zero (in case you missed it)
And Hazzard, this virus is here to stay – so caution
People, so you and me, have to manage that environment of the virus being here to stay, so following public health advice
Unfortunately people continue to die
And that continues to be sobering – because medical science is committed to extending life
Henry @ Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 11:37 am
Constance may have presided. Berejiklian may have decided. Part of the Liberal union-busting agenda. Australian manufacturing decline as collateral damage was anticipated. Asbestos and too tall to fit under bridges is a little embarrassing, should they care.
No need to guess the reason.
lizzie @ #1780 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 12:19 pm
The Hun readers are not believing her. Where are the promised 4000 ICU beds?
They are so manipulated it is incredible.
This is the comment that got me
Not-one-word from the ICU nurse about the missing 4000 ICU beds, PPE gear and extra trained staff and the missing $1.3 Billion to fund all that which is directly causing all her hospital grief, anyone in her situation would be furious with that, why the deafening silence on it from her ?
She actually stated clearly that that they have everything they need and are opening beds as required by quickly training other experiences nurses.
It’s this section of the ICAC Act that Berejiklian may flounder:
Under section 11 of the Independent Commission Against Corruption Act 1988 (“the ICAC Act”), a principal officer of a NSW public authority has a duty to report to the ICAC any matter where there is a reasonable suspicion that corrupt conduct has occurred or may occur.
Meanwhile, the number of petitioners calling for the reinstatement of Berejiklian reaches 40,000, and flowers are delivered to her Northbridge home:
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/multiple-online-petitions-urging-gladys-berejiklian-to-stay-on-as-premier-gain-thousands-of-signatures/news-story/0495f0ef557f17717a1dacd439a8fbbf
I wish her and Moses a happy life.
laughtong
Dan explained that some time ago, saying that they had the ventilators etc. and it was not a question of beds. But you’re right. Manipulation right down to the wire.
I also notice that adverts for the Herald-Sun are suddenly appearing on commercial TV.
Is it because they’re losing sales, or because they are gearing up for mor support during the lection? Thinking, thinking…
Douglas and Milko @ #2053 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 12:05 pm
https://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome
Has a Firefox version too, which automatically updates. Works for a very large number of publications.
Meanwhile, the number of petitioners calling for the reinstatement of Berejiklian reaches 40,000, and flowers are delivered to her Northbridge home:
Oh wow! A whole 0.004% of the NSW population! 🙄
Despite the deaths & the hospitalisations, the NSW infection rate gives rise to hope. Those intending to party in respone to today’s Grand Final will hopefully take the recommended public health directions:
[‘NSW has recorded another 667 new COVID-19 infections, while another 10 people died yesterday, NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard has confirmed.
He said the numbers have shown “quite a dramatic drop in the last three weeks”, comparing today to 1599 cases three weeks ago.
There were 88,210 COVID tests to 8pm last night. There are now 981 infected patients in hospital, with 195 of those in intensive care units. Of that 195, 140 were not vaccinated while 41 had received one dose, and 14 had both doses. There are 93 people on ventilators.
Mr Hazzard issued a plea for NSW residents watching the NRL grand final on Sunday afternoon to “please don’t let the side down”.]
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-records-667-new-local-covid-19-cases-and-10-deaths-20211003-p58wrc.html
A piece on the home of a PM utterly different from the current bullshit artiste.
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/inside-the-humble-cottesloe-home-that-led-australia-through-world-war-ii-20211001-p58wdt.html
It still comes as somewhat of a shock when commercial fishers want to keep fishing a species until it is gone. Dumb and dumber:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-03/queensland-scallop-fisheries-close/100504880
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-03/how-obscure-shooting-association-grant-brought-down-berejiklian/100507388
Queensland police refuse to remove traditional owners occupying Adani’s coalmine site
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/03/queensland-police-refuse-to-remove-traditional-owners-occupying-adanis-coalmine-site
https://apple.news/AC53u62dSSOSkZVpfW6d4tg
As went the Yanks (Calamity Joe ‘Hey Man’ Biden after TDJT after BHO), Poms (…/ Starmer/ Corbyn after BoJo after May after Porkies after Brown), so will go … Albo after Spinocchio/ Fizza/ Tonicchio after KRudd7x7?
(I’ll skip Canada or across the ditch for now.)
Hmm… C+ seems to be adding a double dose of DST.
Cat
40,000 is about 0.5% of NSW population, you shouldn’t be as loose with figures as the average LNP politician.
Calling for her reinstatement? She resigned.
What’s more she chose to resign, ICAC didn’t sack her.
She could have just moved to the backbench until the investigation was complete.
Unless she knows what’s coming..
Berejiklian was robbed!
lizzie @ #2078 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 2:37 pm
It is an awful take and some of the brainwashed ARE suggesting that.
The Hun has much to answer for and I hope their comeuppance will come soon.
NSW Transport Minister Andrew Constance is set to quit state politics for a tilt at a federal seat.
The Liberal MP for Bega will resign and run for the federal seat of Gilmore, currently held by Labor politician Fiona Phillips, at the next election.
Mr Constance is expected to make an announcement at 1pm on Sunday.
His departure comes two days after Premier Gladys Berejiklian announced her resignation on Friday.
The premier said she would leave parliament at the earliest opportunity after anti-corruption watchdog ICAC announced a probe into whether Ms Berejiklian breached public trust in grants awarded to community organisations while she was in a secret relationship with ex-Wagga Wagga MP Daryl Maguire.
In a sort of ‘fuck you!’ gesture to the world’s peaceniks and doves, some more heart-warming news. The PLA sets a new record!!!!
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1235577.shtml
ItzaDream and Henry
Let’s not put facts in the story.
Poroti says:
Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 12:54 pm
A piece on the home of a PM utterly different from the current bullshit artiste.
Inside the humble Cottesloe home that led Australia through World War II
David Allan-Petale
—————————————————–
Very moving, Poroti
“That some will use their appearance to suggest paid actors or political spin is just an awful take. They are angels.”
Has anyone actually suggested that? Paid actors?
There was something here along the lines that equivalent persons speaking at New South Wales conferences were pressured.
Can CC or someone factcheck Morrison’s claim that Australia has overtaken the Americans for first doses.
Steve777says:
Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 11:53 am
Gladys can’t come to work anymore, she’s a little crook. boom-tish!
We need something to counter the apparent moves to have her canonised.
________________
She seems to have had a real affinity with the people of NSW.
Her connection all seems a bit different to the way Keneally is viewed.
As both are ex Premiers am curious to know why .
Apart from her state local seat has Keneally actually won anything, or has she always been forced onto people ?
Maybe that could be the reason.
Steve777 says:
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 11:06 pm
“If you’re in a war and your uniform has a skull on it, you’re one of the bad guys. Simple.”
Queen’s Royal Lancers – long history of being the good guys.
There is a petition on change.org – vote early, vote often…
Dr Kate Ahmad started this petition to NSW Liberal Party and 1 other
Gladys Berejeklian has stepped down from the NSW leadership. Regardless of her faults, she represented women, immigrants, and an upbringing without significant privilege. Her presence provided diversity in Australian leadership.
The front runner to replace her is Dominic Perrottet, a white male who is publicly anti abortion, anti diversity, anti marriage equality – and who has referenced Trump and Folau positively in tweets.
For safety and diversity – we want to be represented by someone other than a white, middle aged, privileged male who is openly religious and expresses views which may be harmful to women and minorities. We have a PM who has not represented or heard women, and the federal Liberal party has not been strong in this regard.
Dominic Perrottet is not representative of the diversity of the NSW population and his views on diversity and abortion are disturbing to many of us.
We ask – please assign leadership to someone with modern views on social justice issues, and with diversity of character and opinion. We want to feel safe and represented. Even though many of us did not agree with Gladys’s politics, we appreciated her as a female leader who had overcome adversity and who championed abortion rights.
https://www.change.org/p/nsw-liberal-party-diversity-please-not-perrottet-for-nsw-leadership?recruiter=162662179&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=psf_combo_share_initial&utm_term=975294cc56934bdbabdf1b09b0245526&recruited_by_id=41a757e6-6a11-45bd-8459-98f21c3603ea
I’m not from an NRL state but will be cheering on Albo’s Rabbitohs tonight. Reckon if they can get up it will be a good omen for Labor at the next election.
Or they could hope that the Liberal Party choose a male, like Rob Stokes, who has the same views as Gladys Berejiklian on the subjects they care about, but who is not allegedly corrupt. He may not be a female, an immigrant or brought up on the wrong side of the tracks himself but to demand that a female must be replaced with a female or that an allegedly corrupt female should be re-instated, because female, immigrant, hard scrabble upbringing, is simply its own form of discrimination.
hazza4257 @ #2092 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 2:12 pm
I’m sweating bullets, hazza! 😀
I’m more concerned about how many new cases there’ll be from the match (and parties) than the result.
Go the *checks notes* Bunnies.
There’s been a bit of a kerfuffle in the Bower Bird department this morning.
After that sickening thud noise, we just beat the dog to a stunned female Bower Bird in the garden outside a hall window into which she flown full pelt, by the sound of it. She’s been a discrete well camouflaged presence for a while, mostly seen ground foraging. What to do, but hold her, with her damaged beak, blank stare, and repeated slow beak gawping.
We finally settled her back near the bower, with a shallow bowl (blue, just because) of water, and watched, a little afar. Such a beauty. And sooner rather than later, the male was back, watching from a low gum tree branch, and then, by all appearances, attacking her. WTF. She finally took off across the driveway (good, she can fly) to get under low spreading shrubs. They were last seen in some to-do under a car. Surely not a Sunday morning domestic.
But if you’ve ever wondered about the name Ptilonorhynchus violaceus, wonder no more. It’s all in the iris. Mind, when the jet black male makes full flight low swoops, which he excels at, apart from the Elizabeth Taylor eyes, there’s a hint of violet blush somewhere in those under feathers.
shellbell @ #2087 Sunday, October 3rd, 2021 – 2:57 pm
On facebook and wtte in Hun comments.
I heard one nurse speak and she was excellent. If she had been pressured into speaking it did not show.
ItzaDream
If the male was lurking, perhaps beter to pop her into a cardboard box to let her recover in the dark. (Hope you don’t mind the comment. Stunned birds are unfortunately frequent here and a surprising number recover.)