Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Both federal leaders at low ebbs, but little change on voting intention from the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll credits Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, down from 54-46 in the last poll three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (down two), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). On personal ratings, Scott Morrison records his weakest results since his early pandemic bounce in March last year, with approval down three to 46% and disapproval up three to 50%, but Anthony Albanese also records his weakest net rating to date, with approval down three to 37% and disapproval up one to 48%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-34 to 47-35. No hard details yet, but the poll will have been conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of between 1500 and 1600.

UPDATE (21/9): As reported in The Australian today, it turns out the poll had a larger-than-usual sample of 2144, which was done to produce sufficient sub-samples from the three largest states for meaningful results on the performance of state leaders. On personal ratings, Daniel Andrews leads the field with 64% approval and 35% disapproval, with Gladys Berejiklian (56% approval and 40% approval) and Annastacia Palaszczuk (57% approval and 38% disapproval) similarly placed. Separate questions on handling of COVID-19 give Berejiklian (56% good, 41% bad) and Andrews (63% and 35%) results almost identical to their personal ratings, whereas Palaszczuk does quite a lot better at 67% well and 31% badly.

We also learn that Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are strong in Queensland (56% approval and 41% disapproval), neutral in New South Wales (46% and 49%) and weak in Victoria (41% and 57%). Morrison is deemed to have handled COVID-19 well by 48% out of the national sample and badly by 49%, reflecting no change since the question was last posted in August. This breaks down to 47% well and 49% badly in New South Wales, 40% and 58% in Victoria and 61% and 36% in Queensland. Fifty-three per cent express more concern with moving too fast on relaxing restrictions compared with 42% for too slow, compared with 62% and 34% when the question was last asked in late January.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,493 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. @CC – no disagreement. But that’s the point – if the balance is wrong – in either direction – compliance drops. One way – people eventually, and naturally, tired of being locked up, and start to bend rules – when people hear constant bad news – they start to drown it out… the studies on this are pretty clear. The other, and higher-risk for Australia as vacc rates increase – is people stop seeing the risks, or don’t see themselves or those immediately around them as being a risk or being at risk.

    This is why the next few months are going to be really difficult. The messaging will fail its intended purpose if it’s too bleak or too optimisitc.

    People do want honesty – but they also want lights at the end of the tunnel… not conditional lights, not permanent ongoing quaratine following international travel etc etc. Is that possible in the near-term? No. But is it reasonable and natural? Yes.

  3. ”
    guytaursays:
    Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 11:02 pm
    This is a horrific legacy for Trump.

    @KyleGriffin1 tweets

    NBC News: The U.S. has exceeded 42 million COVID cases since the start of the pandemic.

    One million new cases in 7 days. @NBCNews @MSNBC
    ”

    I disagree that it is the legacy of Trump only. Partly true (what part of the whole will be decided by history). But after June 2021, it is part of Biden legacy.

  4. jt1983

    Yes of course, but now we are on the other end of that – people being told about “freedom”. What do you think people do when they’re being told “it’ll all be over in a few weeks”. Of course they’ll drop their guard.

    And of course people are being allowed to think “we’re all gonna go back to normal”. Wrongly. We have Scomo telling us we’ll bring back international tourism and that also reinforces the “normalisation” message. Again, lots of people then think “Oh, ok, the government has this in hand, it’ll be fine”.

    Guess what happens when they think that? Yep, they drop their guard.

    And finally, when we get to “freedom day” and we discover that the new “freedoms” are piecemeal and that this isn’t normality, what does that do to people’s confidence in government?

    What if (quite likely) we get it wrong and cases shoot up again, and the news switches back to horror stories of triage in hospital carparks. What does that do to collective confidence?

    And what’s worse is, the response is perverse. More people going “well, it won’t hurt me”.. and so compliance crashes and the virus goes totally out of control. Evidence: UK.

    All bad messaging. And you’re worried about me pointing this out to a relative small audience of grown ups (well, some of them).

  6. ”
    jt1983says:
    Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 11:04 pm
    @Evan – not to be rude, but you’re not telling us anything we don’t already see/know. Anyone thinking the Government is done, is wrong. But, people who strongly argue the counter, which is true, without the balance of the reality of the situation
    ”

    Like Murdoch hacks and MSM ‘Journos’ like Coorey.

  7. @CC – I’m not worried about what you say here. I think it reflects a lot of online commentary.

    And you demonstrated my core point – every example and risk is absolutely true, the messaging over the next few months is going to be a very very difficult balance to strike. It can’t just be “get ready for xx thousands of cases and xxxx deaths every week/day/month/hour and we don’t know when this will end…”

    Neither you nor I, nor anyone here (I truly hope) are responsible for providing comms advice to Governments… so, yes, what is presented here doesn’t really make much difference. But what is said here does reflect comments from the broader community.

  9. guytaur

    Did you see that video I posted about the UK earlier?
    Part of it was about them fudging the case numbers, whilst deaths continue to rise.
    I note that the UK now has a case fatality rate of 0.5%
    It was 0.3% a month ago.
    Less testing, less cases being reported. That’s the most likely explanation.

  12. jt1983

    The messaging over the next few months has already been sabotaged.
    Gladys has very little wiggle room to change restrictions in a way that will only see a 25% rise in the rate of reinfection. That’s all the margin that vaccination will afford her. That’s not enough. Not till we get to a genuine 80% of the population as a whole.

    And guess what? We need better messaging to get there. We need to be honest and open with people and tell them why 80+% (of the population) matters. Because the current 70 and 80 percent (of adults) bullshit is going to create false security.

    At the end of the day, there is no replacement for straight talking and honesty.

  16. @SD – it’s a state sample in a Morgan poll…

    Am I the only one still traumatised from 2004 (I mean Latham is still a bullet Australia dodged)? I’ve not been able to take their polling seriously since.

  18. steve davis says:
    Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 11:24 pm
    What gets me is how Smoko is still popular in WA. That Morgan poll showed the Coalition leading Labor 53-47.

    Morgan is inconveniently and improbably erratic. I wouldn’t rely on it.

  22. https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/hospitals-likely-overwhelmed-road-map-modelling-shows-20210919-p58sz8.html

    What I find interesting here is that the Burnett modelling says there is a huge difference between following the roadmap and following the roadmap with increased testing. And in the fine print that means vaccinated people still test with mild symptoms.

    Um.. seriously? Does the Victorian roadmap include dropping testing for vaccinated people? That seems wrong.

  25. We’re looking at buying an EV – Tesla is on the cards – but I absolutely and positively refuse to allow the self-driving option to be installed at any point, lol.

  27. This is not the poll Morrison and his backers were hoping for.
    There is nothing there that says to the government “go go go”.
    The details of the poll may even make this poll look like a non event for a LNP resurgence.
    The disquiet among the parliamentary Liberal Party is suspiciously silent.
    The lease signs outside blocks of units particularly and houses are becoming more obvious.
    Any cracks in the booming real estate (housing) industry will be sonic.
    Any signs of the bigger cases of prevailing administration or liquidation cases will be
    equally so.
    The government just can’t continue printing money without some festering evidence.
    The government cas(h)cade of free money can be hidden between now and Christmas perhaps (with the help of the MSM) but not next year.
    Next year a different story.
    I’d be looking at credit card and mortgage defaults, exiting liberal politicians, closure of small businesses and the uncomfortable reality of living with an uncontrolled virus.
    The realities of an unofficial Chinese embargo on a plethora of trade matters is teetering.
    Parents want the kids back in school because it’s now bothersome,stressful and neverending.
    Glasgow and climate change has no upside for the LNP.
    The reality of not having an election till 2022 will be a heavy burden for everyone between now and March next year.
    Morrison himself doesn’t care, having no obvious aversion to failure or signs of shame.
    The other politicians?
    Morrison has his financial future secured with post PMship lurks and perks.
    The other politicians?
    The shameless Morrison would love an insurrection this week, to arrive triumphant from his trip and throw his hands in the air and say”well I tried”!
    Morrison’s real problem is probably getting either of Dutton or Albanese to push him out.
    There is very little upside for either.
    Barnaby could have a good six months bragging about himself in the pubs.
    With Glady’s fairy tales to continue and Dan’s frustration lapping the edges things are not getting better for anyone.
    The virus is a faltering yoyo craze and now irritating.
    Absolutely no positives for either the Morrison government or the public.
    We are about at the stage of collectively closing our eyes and hoping!

  28. jt1983 says Monday, September 20, 2021 at 12:13 am

    We’re looking at buying an EV – Tesla is on the cards – but I absolutely and positively refuse to allow the self-driving option to be installed at any point, lol.

    I have a rule of thumb, don’t buy American designed/made cars.

  29. bc is right. So many dedicated vehicle manufacturers are starting to bring their EV cars to market now. Volvo, Kia and BMW, to name a few. Though the interesting thing about the BMW EV is that they are working on making the car fully recyclable. So that parts can all be recycled as well. It’s called the Circle Concept. Very commendable, imho.

  30. “The Australian reports the latest Newspoll credits Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47″…

    Proceeding steadily and consistently…. that’s exactly what the ALP needs…
    So far, so good.

    “On personal ratings, Scott Morrison records his weakest results since his early pandemic bounce in March last year…. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-34 to 47-35.”… So, even the difference between the two leaders has now narrowed to 12%, which I believe is below the percentage advantage you would expect if the high-exposure PM has a chance to win the election, as Kevin Bonham famously concluded: “But on average a PM needs a Better PM lead of 13.6 points to get a 50% 2PP on election day.”

    …. So, again, nothing wrong with Albo.

  31. Good to see Morrison’s approval ratings sinking despite all the headline announcements he’s made over the past few weeks trying to reset the narrative away from the complete and utter failure of his government to manage Covid.

  32. This is why I think Labor will win…
    The thing with Queensland (and a lesser extent WA) is that you would think there has to be “some swing” back to Labor there, it might be big or it might be small, because Labor is starting there with such a low base.
    Then add to that I don’t see LNP gaining any seats elsewhere…
    If so where? The only one potential gain I would say is the Hunter Valley…

  33. guytaur @ #35 Sunday, September 19th, 2021 – 10:25 pm

    @davidenrich tweets

    New @nytimes investigation: Giant accounting firms send their officials into the government, where they water down tax rules in ways that help their firms’ clients. Then they return to those firms, which double their pay. @JesseDrucker @dannyhakim

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/19/business/accounting-firms-tax-loopholes-government.html

    In Australia they go straight to standing for the Liberal Party and being a part of a Coalition government.

  34. Laura Loomer, who was banned from Twitter in 2018 and is well known for her controversial views, said that she has not been vaccinated against Covid-19.

    She also lost a House bid in Florida last year.

    Her diagnosis comes after finance guru and prominent anti-vaxxer Alan Steel died of Covid-19. He had been hospitalised and placed on a ventilator, telling friends to “keep their fingers crossed” for him.

    I believe in karma too, Ven. Do the right thing, you accumulate good karma. Do and say the wrong thing, the karma bus is coming for you.

  35. Morning all. While this seems a steady as she goes Newspoll result, I see no sign of any Khaki bounce from the subs deal. Best case, the new deal exposes the Liberals wasted five years and a few billion on the subs contract.

    I think the cancelled subs contract adds to a narrative that Scomo is quite poor at managing money and delivering, as with jobkeeper, vaccines and quarantine.

    I think Labor could also pursue a specific Adelaide angle on the subs contract bungle. Despite past promises dating back to Chris Pyne, Adelaide has not seen a bonanza of jobs from ship building, and now faces another “valley of death”. Meanwhile other promises like the tram network extension (cancelled) and North-south corridor (delayed) have not panned out either.

    So for the amount of money already wasted on the subs ($2.4B), Adelaide could have had the Womens and Childrens Hospital replaced, which badly needs doing.

  36. Loomer joins an increasing list of outspoken, prominent anti-vaxxers and Covid denlialists to either get sick or die from Covid.

  37. Cud
    “ What annoys me here is I actually want a car that can drive itself (I can’t drive). But Tesla is in danger of setting the cause backwards by over-hyping what it can do.”
    After doing more research myself (and there is a trial AV bus at an Adelaide uni I have seen) I am far more skeptical about the feasibility of self-driving cars in my lifetime now than I was five years ago. They are a long way off – decades. The technology is OK in specified simple environments e.g. freeways. But getting an AV to understand a complex environment and make decisions about it e.g. a street with pedestrians and cyclists as well as cars is proving far more difficult than the IT salesmen first promised. It is like ITS for freeways all over again. Much promised, little real world gain delivered.

    What is proving more effective is “driver assist” technology. That is still have a real world driver, but have auto-override functions to step in and stop the car hitting another detected car by applying brakes or steering corrections. This seems to work well, but does not eliminate the need for a driver. It greatly improves safety, but we can forget about an end to traffic congestion from AVs. That was always hype.

  39. Murdoch’s Oz front page today – poor mistreated Porter, Newspoll never happened and Palmer/Kelly at the bottom.

    [EDIT] Oops – I missed the little Newspoll bit at the top.

  40. Confessions @ #41 Monday, September 20th, 2021 – 6:20 am

    Loomer joins an increasing list of outspoken, prominent anti-vaxxers and Covid denlialists to either get sick or die from Covid.

    There is a big intersection with people in the Wellness and Performance area in society as well, as this story tells the sad tale:

    https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/health/sydney-man-facing-heart-transplant-after-covid-leaves-him-with-chronic-health-issues/news-story/3945bbff23358e006574818ced69209e

    They both caught COVID-19 before the vaccine was available and seemed to have treated it like it was just some sort of cold. So much so that the husband, after he had gotten over the initial infection, went back to training for a marathon 1300km bike ride for charity and then did it. The wife is a Performance Coach, so there is that mindset, as she says, she always thinks positive (!?!). Now, after collapsing on his bike the husband has been placed on a Defibrillator and the waiting list for a Heart Transplant as the virus worked its way through his heart muscle.

    Maybe if he hadn’t been so keen to get back on his bike and stress his body so soon after contracting COVID-19 it may not have ended this way? ‘Positivity’ and prayers aren’t the solution.

  41. citizen,
    I think people are waking up to the Murdoch modus operandi and factoring it in to their considerations. It’s just so blatant now.

  43. “ What annoys me here is I actually want a car that can drive itself (I can’t drive). But Tesla is in danger of setting the cause backwards by over-hyping what it can do.”

    I am a Engineer with a software degree that spent 10 years of my career playing with AI. I know what Neutral nets are good for, how to train them, and the difficulty of working out what they are doing, and quite frankly, how little that understanding has to do with intelligence. To crack that nut you need to understand emotions. Not how we make decisions but why we make decision.

    I agree with Socrates, decades.

    We won’t be there until our cars have the urge to tell us to fck off.

  44. C@t:

    I think there were lots of people who took in the original Covid impacts of affecting mostly the elderly and thought it was just an old person’s disease. With Delta impacting lots of younger people, and with people of all ages dying from or hospitalised with the virus, it just shows you gotta take it seriously!

  45. ABC RN News:

    The News frames the porter narrative as “Christian Porters political opponents” and not “Labor” thereby suggesting that the matters discussed are politics and not a fundamental part of our political system of democracy.

    Failing to present the news in a neutral way and editorializing by stealth is making the ABC an untrustworthy source.

  46. Socrates

    Exactly. I read an article pointing out that what Tesla has is upside down. Instead of the software doing the driving and the human intervening, it should be the other way around.

    I’m a little more optimistic about level 4 autonomy. Its not just Tesla working on this and I’m more of a fan of the ‘map everything and use every possible sensor’ approach. Tesla relying on just cameras has known limitations. We also need smarter roads, accessible fixed cameras, etc. I’d give it a serious chance by 2030.

    Oh, and the capability to return to base in a limited environment (still in level 4) would make a big difference to the PT last mile issue. You drive to the station and the car either drives home or goes off to find a park in a designated lot outside town.

  47. Confession

    Interesting UK data showing a rise in case fatality rate. Up from 0.3% to 0.5% over the last month. Could be weakening immunity over time. Could be that the official case numbers are artificially low.

  48. frednk

    Former Software Engineer here and have played with what they now call machine learning. Its usefull but brittle. See my post above. I’m not quite that pessimistic, but its only going to happen in well controlled, mapped and networked environments.

  49. Cud:

    I saw some statistics the other day showing those most susceptible to long Covid are women in their 50s with existing health conditions.

  50. Ven says:
    Monday, September 20, 2021 at 6:30 am

    It’s worth bearing in mind that the polls taken at this point have historically been unlikely to be predictive of the next election:

    https://armariuminterreta.site/2021/09/19/polls-too-far-out-are-not-predictive/
    ”
    True but would you be saying that if the shoe is on other foot?
    ——————
    If it’s in fact true, then as far as I’m concerned it’s irrelevant which shoe the foot is on. Posts that give information about the real world are interesting to me. Posts that consist of partisan barracking- of which I’m guilty from time to time – are of no interest to me – unless maybe they’re unusually creative or witty and include no sledging of other forum participants.

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