The opinion poll schedule for the week is likely to consist of the fortnightly Essential Research, which is not due to include the monthly leadership numbers and should thus be of limited interest (unless it includes their occasional dump of fortnightly voting intention results), and presumably a Roy Morgan voting intention poll on Wednesday.
For the time being, there is the following:
• The Australian reports that Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon will bow out at the election, creating a vacancy in his seat of Hunter, where his margin was slashed from 12.5% to 3.0% at last year’s election with One Nation polling 21.6%. There is no indication as to who might succeed him as Labor candidate, except that “NSW Right figures (are) concerned Hunter could be lost to the faction and go to someone from the left-aligned CFMEU or the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union”.
• There would seem to be no suggestion that the vacancy in Hunter might change the calculus behind Kristina Keneally’s controversial move to Fowler, which was criticised over the weekend by her federal Labor colleague Anne Aly, along with many others inside and outside the party. However, Michelle Grattan in The Conversation notes that the arrangement does not of itself deprive the local party membership of a preselection ballot, since a clause in the state party rules specific to Fowler enshrines the seat as the gift of the Right as a legacy of past branch-stacking controversies.
• The West Australian reports on two further preselection challenges to sitting Liberals in Western Australia, on top of that facing Ian Goodenough in Moore from Vince Connelly after the abolition of his seat of Stirling. In Swan, where Steve Irons would appear to have his work cut out for him in defending a 3.2% margin, the challenger is Kristy McSweeney, a Sky News commentator, former adviser to Tony Abbott and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney. McSweeney earlier contested preselection for the once safe but now Labor-held seat of Bateman ahead of the state election in March. In the much safer seat of Durack, Melissa Price will be challenged by Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard. For what it’s worth, The Age columnist Jon Faine today tells us to “watch out to see if former attorney-general Christian Porter opts for a spot on the Federal Court on the cusp of the election, rather than face probable defeat in his outer-suburban Perth electorate” – namely Pearce, where redistribution has cut the margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.
• As those who followed the post below will be aware, Labor recorded a strong result in the Northern Territory’s Daly by-election, with their candidate Dheran Young leading the count over Kris Civitarese of the Country Liberal Party by 1905 (55.8%) to 1506 (44.2%) with only a handful of votes left outstanding. This amounts to a 7.0% swing compared with the election last August, at which the CLP won the seat by 1.2%. It is the first time a government party has ever won a seat from the opposition at a by-election in the territory, and first time anywhere in Australia since the Benalla by-election in Victoria in May 2000.
Things are turning to shit for China in Japan and in India ATM. All their own work. Just parse the various headlines in Xi’s mouthpiece:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 4:43 pm
…
Didn’t she know? Didn’t her mentors tell her? Once the Secretary-General makes such a call (risible as it is – it seems to based inter alia it seems on the direct wishes of the Federal Leader) then the correct play is to make enough noise to create some leverage to extract concessions, and I would have thought that the State seat of Cabramatta was pretty low hanging fruit.
..
The weird thing is; this is shaping up to be an election where you don’t need to be in a safe seat to start a Labor parliamentary career. Tu Le may be disappointed she didn’t get a seat with a 15% margin but if things keep going as they are there will be plenty of others on lower margins at will get your parliamentary career started.
There is no doubt that Ed’s parents were migrants C@t: but neither they nor he fled the Milosevic regime or genocide.
The subterranean anti muslim campaign ran against him in Greenway back in 2004 was perhaps the very first overt political campaign where the Assemblies of God (via their local brand – Hillsong) played a key role in Australia. No coincidence that the State Liberal Director at the time had just jumped ship to the Pentecostals. Praise the white supply-side Jesus. Praise him (with lots of credit card donations).
Is this a permissible use of a slush fund?
Porter..
“As a potential beneficiary I have no access to information about the conduct and funding of the trust,” he wrote in an update to his register of member’s interests, processed on Tuesday.
The daily vaccination figures are in. Just a little over 276,000.
Things to note:
• Tasmania is getting very close to 50% double dose.
• The figures do not look completely reliable in that the Victorian number (71,000) is low which makes one thinks that some of its State-hub vaccinations have not been recorded – there are some reporting discrepancies that seem to affect both New South Wales and Victoria.
• New South Wales’ figures are comparatively high which may suggest that there is some sort of reporting catch-up nevertheless New South Wales will go through 80% first dose tomorrow and 50% second dose probably on Friday.
frednk
IMO, never count your eggs in that basket.
So a brown paper bag is ok as long as you don’t know who put the money in?
Expat
” A natural recession from peak plus vax drive impact augurs well for October/November. Overlay this with responsible opening up geared around the vaccinated first”
You seem to think that the raft of substantive easings that Gladys proposes for October are “responsible”. R is your new God. In a few weeks, R might be marginally below 1.0 – lets call it 0.8.
What this means is we can only increase transmission by 25%. Beyond that, say bye bye.
Do ya feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?
Wait till the Sage group’s modelling of Gladys’s easings, coming up in the next few days. The only group that has actually modelled them (and not assumed continued lockdown)
This cannot end well for Gladys. Reason: maths and physics.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 4:56 pm
frednk
IMO, never count your eggs in that basket.
I agree, shaping up is different to a result.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/09/13/weekend-developments/comment-page-22/#comment-3702669
The deposit return threshold is 4% of the formal vote. If, hypothetically, Tu Le ran as an independent at the next election, I suspect she would get at least enough votes to get her deposit back as she would have some local political support and more media coverage than the average independent. If, hypothetically, Chris Hayes resigned from the ALP and set up a new party (e.g. Fowler Party, South West Sydney Party, etc.), for her to be the Fowler candidate for, her vote would likely be higher than as an independent.
Boerwar
AOC.. ready and waiting..
Ocasio-Cortez was prepared for the future cries of hypocrisy. “We can’t just play along,” she said. “While The Met is known for its spectacle, we should have a conversation about it.”
Over my head .. I assumed naturally provocative
Bully beef turns to SPAM (“Lovely Spam! Wonderful Spam!”)
Of COURSE Christian Porter has not scintilla of knowledge of who his benefactors through a “blind trust” are.
Player One:
Apology Accepted!
ItzaDream @ #1057 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 4:26 pm
I feel for you.
I have been a subscriber to the SSO since I and a cousin camped out on the steps in Castlereagh St to get four spread out seats under the back balcony in the Sydney Town Hall for our mum’s and us when I was 14. I am proud of my 50 year pin, presented to me by Donald Hazlewood. I have seen pretty much every SSO Mahler performance over the years. Challender and Ashkenazi were stand outs.
One very memorable Mahler 5 performance was the New York Phil with Bernstein, at the Opera House Concert Hall, for an unplanned ABC recording, when they scoured the Con to make up an audience, and I happened to be there for a clarinet rehearsal. I also remember creeping into a Lorin Maazel rehearsal in the Town Hall, some time in the 60’s.
Andrew_Earlwood at 4:55 pm
As well as the loons of the AoG The Rodent was also playing footsies with the barking mad of the Exclusive Brethren back then.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/brethren-meet-pm-in-his-office-20070822-ge5n49.html
“ I think you mean “AOC”. Or are you afraid too many not-very-bright PB’ers will think you mean the Australian Olympic Committee? ”
P1’s attempt to deflect via her usual bonhomie, having been well and truly called out for the vile, faux progressive flake that she/he/they is.
Deploy the chaf!
‘Scrptic says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 5:02 pm
Boerwar
AOC.. ready and waiting..
Ocasio-Cortez was prepared for the future cries of hypocrisy. “We can’t just play along,” she said. “While The Met is known for its spectacle, we should have a conversation about it.”
Over my head .. I assumed naturally provocative’
_________________________
Sure. Tell that to the homeless scrabbling for survival. I’m sure they would get her arsey nuances.
BK says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 5:04 pm
Of COURSE Christian Porter has not scintilla of knowledge of who his benefactors through a “blind trust” are.
Kerry Stokes has deep pockets for worthy causes
BW
AOC is helping to do this.
@POTUS tweets
The fact is a firefighter shouldn’t pay more in taxes than an entire tech company.
A teacher shouldn’t pay more in taxes than an oil company.
We’re going to cut taxes for the middle class by ensuring the wealthy and large corporations pay their fair share.
Edit: A government reversing the decades long dog eat dog American style of capitalism.
The Keneally beatup is bullshit. All large political parties put capable performers in safe seats. All that’s happening is what always happens. Hurry up folks, it’s Another Labor Preselection!!! The media & ALP opponents cluster around it like flies around shit & do whatever damage they can. All other Australian political parties are immune from this treatment.
“ As well as the loons of the AoG The Rodent was also playing footsies with the barking mad of the Exclusive Brethren back then.”
ScoMo’s journey unto speaking in tongues started out as a member of the (non exclusive) brethren. It seems that his honour’s thesis at Uni was actually a case study on how to leverage their close knit community spirit into … political power. I think he gave up on them, and moved to his religion to various charismatic baptist churches (being a lay minister in at least one I think) along the way before finding EXACTLY the sort of malleable flock he was looking for in the Assemblies of God back in the naughties.
Albo does hold a hose …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-14/albanese-tells-tu-le-hang-in-there-keneally-swap/100460226
BK
I suspect this is what you have in mind.
https://www.google.com/search?q=image+of+the+three+wise+monkeys&client=firefox-b-d&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=-Vi_Ct-m-cBhNM%252C5ti4gRghz0eIPM%252C_&vet=1&usg=AI4_-kSDr27GBnqmE98e9SClFGdowpUorg&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwio7fKU9v3yAhUWcCsKHV5rA8EQ9QF6BAgOEAE&biw=1089&bih=499#imgrc=-Vi_Ct-m-cBhNM
In a nutshell……
Remember the time a Labor MP resigned after accepting $1,600 he shouldn’t have? The woman who was sacked after she gave away a few watches? The Premier who resigned over a bottle of wine? The alleged rapist who was sacked after taking a million bucks from a stranger?
Oh, wait …
I suspect this is what you have in mind.
______
Yes, something like that, Boerwar.
That’s good leadership there from Albanese.
Wat
Yes.
That AOC dress! Context – the “Met” is the Metropolitan Museum and the Galah Night is fund raising for its costume department thingy place, organised by the painfully self-conscious expat Brit Anna Wintour, Ms Vogue, who has somehow garnered the nickname “Nuclear Wintour”, can’t think how.
New York is back again. The Met Opera opened on 11 September, after 18 months silence, with a powerful and hyper emotional performance of Verdi’s Requiem. 500 of the 3800 seats were given to first responders. Vaccinated only entry.
Deliver Me O Lord
https://youtu.be/gSwrgPmu8wM
Andrew_Earlwood
thanks, I did not realise that was the topic of his thesis. Found a Crikey article on that topic. Not paywalled.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2021/05/04/inq-morrison-full-university-thesis/
Isn’t it strange how the characters who exist only to bag Labor and troll some of the posters here has suddenly found the need to turn an intrafactional Labor spat into a matter of high moral and eth(n)ical import?
The only pre-selection of any consequences is the process whereby our less than transparent PM, backdoored his way into parliament after having been soundly defeated during pre-selection.
The PM has maintained consistency, being backdoored from a number of previous jobs and backdooring his way into some others.
The fact that the PM is not referred to as “that backdoor bogan” is a credit to the tolerance and easy going nature of Australian voters.
I seem to remember that the chookhouse acquired for his family had a back door.
The tale from Engadine is ” it was the backdoor that done it”
BK says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 5:04 pm
Of COURSE Christian Porter has not scintilla of knowledge of who his benefactors through a “blind trust” are.
________________________________________
Typically blind trusts are more about the beneficiaries not being able to direct how the trust is run, it can also cover situations where the benefactor of assets into the trust is unknown to the beneficiary. But we only have the beneficiary’s word that he doesn’t know.
It seems to me that this ‘blind trust’ is all about keeping the identity of the benefactor from everyone OTHER THAN the beneficiary.
A whole new legal class for legitimate acts of corruption.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1115 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 5:08 pm
That faux bonhomie makes my skin crawl.
ItzaDream says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 5:28 pm
Ms Vogue, who has somehow garnered the nickname “Nuclear Wintour”, can’t think how.
‘Nuclear Wintour’: She doesn’t do black, she doesn’t do fat and (sorry Pixie) she doesn’t do girlie hugs
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1215719/Nuclear-Wintour-She-doesnt-black-doesnt-fat-sorry-Pixie-doesnt-girlie-hugs.html
Is that what you meant?
TPOF @ #1131 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 5:34 pm
Isn’t it strange how the Labor partisans here who were trying to laugh this off as nothing serious only yesterday, have now realized that what they thought would go unnoticed as a minor intrafactional Labor spat is actually a major catastrophe requiring high level damage control from the biggest Labor names they can find as they try and salvage votes in the very marginal seats they need to win the next election?
“That’s good leadership there from Albanese.”
***
That’s Albo subtly telling the NSW Labor Right to go get stuffed and stop screwing up his election campaign. If there’s anyone else apart from Tu Le who would be getting mighty pissed off at this whole sorry state of affairs, it would be him.
Victoria @ #1123 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 5:20 pm
There’s only a very few people in Australia who have that sort of spare change to kick around in Christian Porter’s direction. I’m sure it wouldn’t be too hard for an enterprising journalist to give all of those people on that shortish list a call to ask them the simple question about whether it was them? 😀
Mahler VIII for me.
A fiery start.
A magnificent ending.
And half an hour in the middle to have a lie down before all the excitement starts.
And yes, I’ve seen it with literally a thousand voices in attendance.
“Keating. He has a way with words.”
I guess his explanation for an end to defined benefit pensions in fav of contribution based superannuation made sense, at the time?
BK says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 5:04 pm
Of COURSE Christian Porter has not scintilla of knowledge of who his benefactors through a “blind trust” are.
Seriously the AEC & Parliament need to look into this.. its an avenue for corruption ( but Porter would know that, being a lawyer & all).. the reason these matters are declared is so you can identify a conflict of intrest & stop bribes being offered. At least when the money is laundered through the party pretences are maintained, more of a global bribe than an individual one.
Jaeger @ #854 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 11:58 am
Thanks Jaeger, after a bit of farnarkling with the settings I finally got it working. Thanks to anyone else who offered a suggestion.
Trust the Greens to turn the Kenneally parachute affair into a personal attack on Albanese.
They just can’t help themselves.
See Labor, kick Labor.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 5:55 pm
See China, kick China.
What goes around comes around.
BSA Bob
Spot on.
The Libs game plan is so easy to read….Australian article, Fran Kelly, Others? Get the story ball rolling. It’s a set up.
Look at Morrisons own foul play in preselection.
Craig Kelly endorsed by Morrison last election against wishes of branch members.
Isn’t there funny stuff going on in NSW Liberal factions?
Any mention of these? No.
To any here who want a Labor victory next election, don’t give this any oxygen.
“300,000 of 1 million travellers from red zones & trusted to home quarantine in the UK were found to break the rules”
Without explosive collars, this is about what I’d predict..
This group is always full of “Labor true believers” who reckon only they are right and thus anyone who disagrees are there to be shouted down or made fun of. Yes, the same people who were so sure Bill Shorten would be PM by now. Poll Bludger is just an echo chamber now of lefties who often are out of step with reality.
This group is always full of “Labor true believers” who reckon only they are right and thus anyone who disagrees are there to be shouted down or made fun of. Yes, the same people who were so sure Bill Shorten would be PM by now. Poll Bludger is just an echo chamber now of lefties who often are out of step with reality.
Morgan poll: ALP 52.5 (-2), L-NP 47.5 (+2). Primary: L-NP 39.5 (+1), ALP 35 (-3.5), GRN 13 (+1.5), ONP 3 (-).
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8802-federal-voting-intention-september-2021-202109140632