The opinion poll schedule for the week is likely to consist of the fortnightly Essential Research, which is not due to include the monthly leadership numbers and should thus be of limited interest (unless it includes their occasional dump of fortnightly voting intention results), and presumably a Roy Morgan voting intention poll on Wednesday.
For the time being, there is the following:
• The Australian reports that Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon will bow out at the election, creating a vacancy in his seat of Hunter, where his margin was slashed from 12.5% to 3.0% at last year’s election with One Nation polling 21.6%. There is no indication as to who might succeed him as Labor candidate, except that “NSW Right figures (are) concerned Hunter could be lost to the faction and go to someone from the left-aligned CFMEU or the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union”.
• There would seem to be no suggestion that the vacancy in Hunter might change the calculus behind Kristina Keneally’s controversial move to Fowler, which was criticised over the weekend by her federal Labor colleague Anne Aly, along with many others inside and outside the party. However, Michelle Grattan in The Conversation notes that the arrangement does not of itself deprive the local party membership of a preselection ballot, since a clause in the state party rules specific to Fowler enshrines the seat as the gift of the Right as a legacy of past branch-stacking controversies.
• The West Australian reports on two further preselection challenges to sitting Liberals in Western Australia, on top of that facing Ian Goodenough in Moore from Vince Connelly after the abolition of his seat of Stirling. In Swan, where Steve Irons would appear to have his work cut out for him in defending a 3.2% margin, the challenger is Kristy McSweeney, a Sky News commentator, former adviser to Tony Abbott and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney. McSweeney earlier contested preselection for the once safe but now Labor-held seat of Bateman ahead of the state election in March. In the much safer seat of Durack, Melissa Price will be challenged by Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard. For what it’s worth, The Age columnist Jon Faine today tells us to “watch out to see if former attorney-general Christian Porter opts for a spot on the Federal Court on the cusp of the election, rather than face probable defeat in his outer-suburban Perth electorate” – namely Pearce, where redistribution has cut the margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.
• As those who followed the post below will be aware, Labor recorded a strong result in the Northern Territory’s Daly by-election, with their candidate Dheran Young leading the count over Kris Civitarese of the Country Liberal Party by 1905 (55.8%) to 1506 (44.2%) with only a handful of votes left outstanding. This amounts to a 7.0% swing compared with the election last August, at which the CLP won the seat by 1.2%. It is the first time a government party has ever won a seat from the opposition at a by-election in the territory, and first time anywhere in Australia since the Benalla by-election in Victoria in May 2000.
Grow up.
When seeking to argue that Australian and US cultures are the same, one should first establish which US culture is being used as a comparison.
All that can be said, in this time of total ineptitude from the currently LNP Federal government, that if the good citizens in Fowler think that they have been hard done by with a Labor candidate such as KK, well then, I guess they will not vote Labor, or vote Liberal or…………who knows what?
I see an earlier contributor has already said he/she “will not be voting Labor”….well, good on you…
If Labor cannot hold a seat with an 18% margin – regardless – then we might as well just tell the Libs to just keep on keeping on…….
I would hazard a guess that hardly anyone in the electorate is thinking “election” at this moment. Hardly anyone is thinking “bad choice of Labor candidate” and/or is thinking ” I will vote Liberal…”
The anti-Labor sad-sacks who come here have really not much else to talk about and despite their contributions, the issue is really small deal in the wider context………
The real problem highlighted by the KK for Fowler issue is the small size of the HoR because in most similar national Westminister parliaments there are way more MP’s and that allows for more localised electorates and greater diversity.
Berejiklian has negligently killed quite a few people in the south-west.
So it is not entirely surprising, except possibly for the ethically corrupt Bludger pushers of the Coalition, that The Oz has a headline: ‘Premier’s heated meeting with lockdown mayors.’ in a meeting which is described as ‘fiery’.
Player One @ #1025 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 3:56 pm
KKK, you posted. And again KKK. Your intent to be offensive stands out like you, or dog’s balls. Pretty much the same, really.
yabba, Covid seriously came between us, Mahler and moi that is. I had reached after a lifetime of searching (no hyperbole) or preparation rather, the main event.
My first experience was Song of the Earth with the peerless Yvonne Minton (Nth Shore girl!) in Sydney’s Town Hall. I was probably 19/20. As Jurowski said – it shakes your life up, and it’s not the same again.
Decades later, the pinnacle approached – the Concertgebouw (Amsterdam) was doing the complete Mahler symphonic cycle, including Song of the Earth, with the world’s crack orchestras – Berlin Phil, Vienna Phil, New York Phil, and the Mahler Youth Orchestra. They hadn’t done it for twenty years. Lots of daytime talks, preludes, blah blah. The most beautiful acoustic in the world. I secured tickets to some/most online, but missed a few keys ones – 2,3 and 5 (the easier arguably, and most popular). So familiar with the setup, I travelled to Amsterdam, gained entry at a higher level, had brilliant tickets, a reception with the Vienna Phil and Barenboim, and the whole kit and caboodle. Flights booked. 14 days accomodation with an AirBnB we knew.
For May 2020. All cancelled.
Another time. Another lifetime probably.
boerwar
The Amish, definitely.
Wondering if Labor will or has preselected any ethnically diverse candidates in winnable seats, how is meeting those diversity targets going?
And KK running a campaign for Fowler from Scotland Island with the occasional token visits to the electorate accompanied by party stooges, that will be a bad look. The real problem is that Labor will actually have to pour resources into Fowler that really should be going elsewhere
Well, that brings up another unpopular opinion I have: It’s time to increase the size of the House again.
I think the House should be pushed up to the 175-180 range, with the Senate being pushed up to 14 Senators a state (and maybe 3 a territory.) The last time it happened was in the early 80s and the population was much lower then.
Of course, I emphasise it’s an unpopular idea because most people will oppose that because it means more politicians.
Ratsak at 3.31pm:
Agree entirely.
Expat and P1 don’t seem to be able to decide whether the parachuting in of KK will lose labor the seat, and potentially the election, is a bad thing because labor “is better than that” or a bad thing because “we really need to get rid of the current government.
The hilarious suggestion that Tu Le would stand as an independent suggests they think she has no commitment to the labor cause beyond the advancement of her own self-interest, in which case I’m glad she’s gone, or they are idly wetting themselves.
As for the supposed hypocrisy, spare me. Politics was ever thus, and so it should be. Nothing should come on a plate just because you’ve ticked all the boxes.
Wat Tyler
Yep, idea killed stone dead right there :P.
“ Ed Husic’s parents escaped the Muslim genocide of Slobodan Milosevic;”
What the actual F, C@t?
Ed Husic has been a friend of mine since BEFORE Milosevic came to power. He’s been part of the furniture of NSW Labor for even longer. Surely you’ve actually met him? Got to know him? Perhaps at least checked his biography. He was born in Sydney. Over 50 years ago. His parents migrated from what is now Bosnia in the 1960s.
A couple of juicy quotes emerging from the qualitative research these days.
There’s no surprise the most common single word response to the mention of Scott Morrison’s name is “bullshitter”.
https://inqld.com.au/opinion/2021/09/14/morrison-government-mps-getting-to-know-they-attack-this-woman-at-their-peril/
‘DisplayName says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 4:27 pm
boerwar
When seeking to argue that Australian and US cultures are the same, one should first establish which US culture is being used as a comparison.
The Amish, definitely.’
______________________
Tens of millions of US citizens speak Spanish as a first language with many of those speaking only Spanish. There are somewhere between 2 and 6 million First Nations folk. Then there is the increasing chasm between different regions, between the Reds and the Blues and between Inner Urbsters and Country Folk.
GG
It is increasingly obvious that more and more Australians are onto Scott. And once that happens, it is irreversible.
Boerwar
What happened to the outer urbsters?
Itza
This really does sound like a dream. Commiserations.
I have a faint hope that by 2023 we will be back to (a socially distanced) normal.
BW,
Yep.
I have more than an inkling that life between So-Cal and Honolulu, embedded in NASA and the US military, had some pointed differences to Brisbane in 1974.
‘DisplayName says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 4:33 pm
Boerwar
between Inner Urbsters and Country Folk.
What happened to the outer urbsters?’
_____________________
Liberal voting mortgagees.
DDD
LOL. Any sandfly bites yet?
Wat,
I’m somewhere over Mt Isa atm so no sandflies up here.
Douglas and Milko @ #1068 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 4:33 pm
Thanks D&M, it was almost to good to be true, and it was. The Dutch were marvellous, with full refunds etc.
2023 will be interesting – there’s a lot of mutations, vaccines, other viruses, and god knows what – but yes, by 2023 we should know something.
@Lurker says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 4:11 pm
lizzie says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 4:07 pm
poroti
For much the same reason, I always regard myself as English, not British.
___________________
Wessex FTW
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Yorkshire here……..and my dad was working in the mines at 4, had to pay employer to work and when we got home had nothing to eat but gravel
Ven @ #1047 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 4:18 pm
Ed Husic had a complete Anti Muslim campaign by the Coalition and the Murdoch media, built around his first attempt to get into federal parliament for Labor. That’s some discrimination right there!
14 Tasmanian senators?
Youze all know her mother’s from Brissie don’t you.
‘Dandy does Darwin says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 4:37 pm
I’m somewhere over Mt Isa atm so no sandflies up here.’
______________________________
haha
Yes, one for each Tasmanian.
I think what I can take away from this discussion is that Australia is basically an outer urb of the US, just misplaced on the other side of the ocean.
😛
Wat Tyler @ #1051 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 4:19 pm
So, you are ageist as well?
You’re not doing very well today, are you?
@RoseBJackson tweets
Update on NSW Parliament
Labor has shown up to the sitting today. The Govt has not.
Sadly we cannot go ahead anyway. We cannot sit without a Minister or Parliamentary Secretary in attendance.
Discussion re these rules happening right now, but unlikely we can proceed
@ShoebridgeMLC tweets
The Coalition have taken a point of order today trying to shut the Upper House down because they refuse to provide a Minister. We are now debating whether the House can continue to sit.
I love the subtlety and nuance of a good headline.
The most obvious statement of the night belonged to politician Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, wearing a white tuxedo-inspired dress by Aurora James with the statement “Tax the rich”, before taking her seat at the $US35,000 ($47,597) a ticket event.
I know that youth are important and that the careers of youth are important and that HSC is important but I calculate that I have now used up around 20% of the remainder of my active life expectancy waiting for Morrrison to get something, anything, right.
Morrison must resign now.
Regrettably Tu Le seems determined to keep writing her political suicide note. Sure, she may leverage her new found media celebrity into some sort of ‘Independent’ political career, but too what end? She’s traded the real chance of being a future Labor Minister, Premier or even Prime Minister for what? some irrelevant marginalised voice carping on the sidelines, or perhaps – if she’s ‘lucky’ the independent mayor of Liverpool organising the shuffling of brown paper bags between property developers and Liberal councillors. What a career.
Didn’t she know? Didn’t her mentors tell her? Once the Secretary-General makes such a call (risible as it is – and it seems to be based inter alia it seems on the direct wishes of the Federal Leader) then the correct play is to make enough noise to create some leverage to extract concessions, and I would have thought that the State seat of Cabramatta was pretty low hanging fruit.
The fucking Hayes’ Brothers hey? Having gotten Bob Who to go along with their Chris Minns gambit, they don’t do anything to assist their protege secure a leg up onto the ladder of opportunity. Why? because Lalich has too much heft? FFS he’s going on 80 and apparently gravely ill with cancer. Perhaps he wants to anoint his own – non Vietnamese – replacement (and the Serbs and other balkans diaspora out there are not always overly friendly with their Vietnamese comrades it has to be said). Still: that was the obvious play.
As I said in my first post on this topic – this is playing out more like the ‘Bunfight of the Mediocrities’ rather than ‘Bonfire of the Vanities’.
Evan @ #1056 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 4:28 pm
You really are a piece of work. You should get on well with Player One.
Israel: Hai Shaulian, a well-known activist against coronavirus vaccines, died on Monday morning at Wolfson Medical Center in Holon due to the coronavirus. Shaulian called on his followers on social media not to get vaccinated against the virus under the headline: “There is no epidemic – the vaccine is unnecessary and dangerous.”
Shaulian uploaded a video to social media from the time he was hospitalized. He said that “I am connected to an oxygen machine without which I suffocate. If I remove it and walk three meters – I faint. I cough hard and feel a lot of suffocation.”
Later in the video, Shaulian complained about the treatment he received at the police station where he was arrested, saying that the policemen put their legs on his neck, and even claimed that “the Jerusalem police tried to poison me. I have never felt this way in my life. All week I struggled as if nothing had happened, but today I could no longer breathe and went to the HMO and from there I was evacuated to Wolfson Medical Center. If something happens to me – know that it’s an assassination attempt.”
‘Sceptic says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 4:42 pm
The most obvious statement of the night belonged to politician Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, wearing a white tuxedo-inspired dress by Aurora James with the statement “Tax the rich”, before taking her seat at the $US35,000 ($47,597) a ticket event.’
___________________________
She tax stunted an event that cost nearly $50,000 Oz a ticket?
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 4:44 pm
Israel: Hai Shaulian, a well-known activist against coronavirus vaccines, died on Monday morning at Wolfson Medical Center in Holon due to the coronavirus….’
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Y*hw*h roolz!
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/09/13/weekend-developments/comment-page-22/#comment-3702628
There is an option for smaller scale increase to the House of Reps but it would require a referendum. Include the territories` MPs and Senators in the Nexus Clause, adding 3-4 MPs from states on current territory senator numbers but allowing them to be increased in smaller increments than 2 extra Senators per state.
I’m betting The Authority assassinated him using a virus.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 4:43 pm
…
As I said in my first post on this topic – this is playing out more like the ‘Bunfight of the Mediocrities’ rather than ‘Bonfire of the Vanities’.’
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Classic.
Sceptic @ #1085 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 4:42 pm
I think you mean “AOC”. Or are you afraid too many not-very-bright PB’ers will think you mean the Australian Olympic Committee? 🙂
Still, not so shabby for one of those “unattractive ethnics”, eh?
Earlwood,
I could have sworn I heard the FPLP leader at the time of Ed Husic’s first attempt to get into federal parliament opine about his parents refugee status. Maybe it was just a general point wrt Bosnian Muslims at the time.
‘Hours worked’ is going to be an interesting metric in the forthcoming Labor Force stats.
[blockquote]Tu Lee should run as an independent[/blockquote]
If she has a deposit she’s not too fussed on seeing returned.
(and wants to prove right the community leaders she says dun her wRONg)
The pitiful back story here is that China has bought/extorted huge swathes of Madagascar’s arable lands and the citizens of Madagascar are suffering a famine partly as a consequence:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1234203.shtml
GG, re your inqld link above, Atkins’ use of Richo’s quote is salient – “The mob will always find you out”. I have no time for Richo, especially with the exploits of the mob he and Tom Domican associated with, but I really think that’s relevant in regard to Scrote. He’s an ad man with a few glib phrases, but he totally lacks substance and accountability. “The mob will always find you out”. I like it.