Weekend developments

Joel Fitzgibbon calls it a day, and other federal preselection news.

The opinion poll schedule for the week is likely to consist of the fortnightly Essential Research, which is not due to include the monthly leadership numbers and should thus be of limited interest (unless it includes their occasional dump of fortnightly voting intention results), and presumably a Roy Morgan voting intention poll on Wednesday.

For the time being, there is the following:

The Australian reports that Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon will bow out at the election, creating a vacancy in his seat of Hunter, where his margin was slashed from 12.5% to 3.0% at last year’s election with One Nation polling 21.6%. There is no indication as to who might succeed him as Labor candidate, except that “NSW Right figures (are) concerned Hunter could be lost to the faction and go to someone from the left-aligned CFMEU or the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union”.

• There would seem to be no suggestion that the vacancy in Hunter might change the calculus behind Kristina Keneally’s controversial move to Fowler, which was criticised over the weekend by her federal Labor colleague Anne Aly, along with many others inside and outside the party. However, Michelle Grattan in The Conversation notes that the arrangement does not of itself deprive the local party membership of a preselection ballot, since a clause in the state party rules specific to Fowler enshrines the seat as the gift of the Right as a legacy of past branch-stacking controversies.

The West Australian reports on two further preselection challenges to sitting Liberals in Western Australia, on top of that facing Ian Goodenough in Moore from Vince Connelly after the abolition of his seat of Stirling. In Swan, where Steve Irons would appear to have his work cut out for him in defending a 3.2% margin, the challenger is Kristy McSweeney, a Sky News commentator, former adviser to Tony Abbott and daughter of former state MP Robyn McSweeney. McSweeney earlier contested preselection for the once safe but now Labor-held seat of Bateman ahead of the state election in March. In the much safer seat of Durack, Melissa Price will be challenged by Busselton councillor Jo Barrett-Lennard. For what it’s worth, The Age columnist Jon Faine today tells us to “watch out to see if former attorney-general Christian Porter opts for a spot on the Federal Court on the cusp of the election, rather than face probable defeat in his outer-suburban Perth electorate” – namely Pearce, where redistribution has cut the margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.

• As those who followed the post below will be aware, Labor recorded a strong result in the Northern Territory’s Daly by-election, with their candidate Dheran Young leading the count over Kris Civitarese of the Country Liberal Party by 1905 (55.8%) to 1506 (44.2%) with only a handful of votes left outstanding. This amounts to a 7.0% swing compared with the election last August, at which the CLP won the seat by 1.2%. It is the first time a government party has ever won a seat from the opposition at a by-election in the territory, and first time anywhere in Australia since the Benalla by-election in Victoria in May 2000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Weekend developments”

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  1. In April 1965, Jacqueline du Pré collaborated for the first time with Sir John Barbirolli in Elgar’s Cello Concerto. That first concert together was simply stunning, and plans were made immediately to record the Concerto in August. The orchestra was to be the one that had given that disastrous premiere nearly half a century earlier, the London Symphony Orchestra. Amends, and musical history, were both about to be made. They gathered in Kingsway Hall, London, on the 19th August 1965. Du Pré wore a pleated white dress, her blonde hair flowing down her back. On the podium, Barbirolli was being updated on cricket scores from Lord’s. The orchestra arrived in a bad mood, owing to some industrial dispute. But from the moment that du Pré’s bow launched into the opening flourish, all day-to-day concerns were forgotten. On that marvellous day, still preserved on disc more than 50 years later, composer, conductor, cellist and orchestra achieved an unprecedented meeting of musical minds.

    https://www.abc.net.au/classic/read-and-watch/music-reads/classically-curious-du-pre-elgar-cello-concerto/10824390

    https://youtu.be/-hCdyPT4RO4

  2. Jaeger

    A memorable recording indeed. And with the bonus of the superb Janet Baker and Sea Pictures. I have had this recording since it was released, both on vinyl and then CD. It has a permanent place on my iPod. 🙂

  3. TPOF,

    Nah, Evan’s been around the mulberry bush before,

    Hated Gillard when she became PM.

    Developed a very minor media profile at the time. Works on the premise of you get more publicity if you constantly bag your own alleged side.

    Is peeved that no one in Labor takes him seriously.

    Just another nobody craving attention.

  4. @USEmbassyinOZ tweets

    ‘For the Biden administration’s climate change approach, equitability, inclusiveness are really important elements… These climate impacts do hit the most vulnerable the hardest. It’s up to us advanced economies to be doing the hard work to try and avert these worst impacts.’

    ‘President Biden has recommitted the U.S. to multilateral approaches on #climate, not just by rejoining the Paris agreement, but by leading within organizations like G7… Day in and day out, our policy makers are asking ‘what do we do now to avert the worst effects (of climate)’

    by thinking strategically and making interventions early, have been able to cushion the impact on communities’

    “For the United States, Texas is now the largest producer of renewable energy, contributing 21% of energy in Texas. If that is not a demonstration that communities are learning how to shift, I don’t know what is. And that makes me so optimistic.”
    – Acting DCM Doug Sonnek

    That’s all from tonight’s panel on #Climate Security! Thanks to the @ClimateCouncil for hosting us this evening! And if you missed tonight’s panel or would like to watch it again, find the discussion in full over at the Climate Council’s YouTube ➡️ bit.ly/3C9tAK2

  5. guytaur @ #1162 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 6:19 pm

    @USEmbassyinOZ tweets

    ‘For the Biden administration’s climate change approach, equitability, inclusiveness are really important elements… These climate impacts do hit the most vulnerable the hardest. It’s up to us advanced economies to be doing the hard work to try and avert these worst impacts.’

    ‘President Biden has recommitted the U.S. to multilateral approaches on #climate, not just by rejoining the Paris agreement, but by leading within organizations like G7… Day in and day out, our policy makers are asking ‘what do we do now to avert the worst effects (of climate)’

    Just another shot across our bows. Ignore it. They’re not serious.

  6. @GiovanniTorre tweets

    It is wild how in Italy “far left” means someone who believes workers’ organisations should not only control the means of production but be society’s peak policy-making bodies, while in Australia “far left” means someone who thinks Bill Leak’s racist cartoons were racist.

  7. Bushfire Bill @ #1139 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 5:45 pm

    I agree absolutely. I have Mahler V on at the moment.

    Mahler VIII for me.

    A fiery start.

    A magnificent ending.

    And half an hour in the middle to have a lie down before all the excitement starts.

    And yes, I’ve seen it with literally a thousand voices in attendance.

    They opened the Sydney Olympics with it in that Arena, piping (sic) the organ in from the Town Hall, trying to get the delay right. c. Edo de Waart. He was Dutch, and liked the ladies. The old yarn was about bumper stickers in Amsterdam that said “Honk if you haven’t been married to Ed0”.

  8. Jaeger

    A memorable recording indeed. And with the bonus of the superb Janet Baker and Sea Pictures. I have had this recording since it was released, both on vinyl and then CD. It has a permanent place on my iPod. 🙂

    To be honest, I’ve never listened to Sea Pictures before – but I’ll give it a go.

  9. Evan @ #1146 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 6:01 pm

    This group is always full of “Labor true believers” who reckon only they are right and thus anyone who disagrees are there to be shouted down or made fun of. Yes, the same people who were so sure Bill Shorten would be PM by now. Poll Bludger is just an echo chamber now of lefties who often are out of step with reality.

    You’re not very original, are you?

  10. A quick report from the vaccine front. I’ve joined the ranks of the double jabbed (AZ). Nae problem a all.
    For those who are still unsure about getting a shot, of whatever variety. Just do it. You’ll be protecting yourself and the one’s you love.
    Back to lurking every now and then.

  11. To be honest, I’ve never listened to Sea Pictures before – but I’ll give it a go.

    Okay, I’m sure it’s lovely – but it’s not for me.

  12. Jaeger @ #1152 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 6:08 pm

    In April 1965, Jacqueline du Pré collaborated for the first time with Sir John Barbirolli in Elgar’s Cello Concerto. That first concert together was simply stunning, and plans were made immediately to record the Concerto in August. The orchestra was to be the one that had given that disastrous premiere nearly half a century earlier, the London Symphony Orchestra. Amends, and musical history, were both about to be made. They gathered in Kingsway Hall, London, on the 19th August 1965. Du Pré wore a pleated white dress, her blonde hair flowing down her back. On the podium, Barbirolli was being updated on cricket scores from Lord’s. The orchestra arrived in a bad mood, owing to some industrial dispute. But from the moment that du Pré’s bow launched into the opening flourish, all day-to-day concerns were forgotten. On that marvellous day, still preserved on disc more than 50 years later, composer, conductor, cellist and orchestra achieved an unprecedented meeting of musical minds.

    https://www.abc.net.au/classic/read-and-watch/music-reads/classically-curious-du-pre-elgar-cello-concerto/10824390

    https://youtu.be/-hCdyPT4RO4

    Thanks. An extension — She was married to Daniel Barenboim, the wonderful Barnenboim. He was a principal conductor in the Mahler Cycle I missed. Last time here (Sydney) he spoke to the audience about first peoples. He founded the East-West Divan Orchestra, to “promote coexistence and intercultural dialogue” in The Levant.

  13. Ballantyne says:
    Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 6:14 pm
    Jaeger

    A memorable recording indeed. And with the bonus of the superb Janet Baker and Sea Pictures. I have had this recording since it was released, both on vinyl and then CD. It has a permanent place on my iPod.
    __________________________________

    One of my absolute favourite recordings too.

  14. “Just statistical noise. No need to panic, people. Albo has it all under control.”

    ***

    Oh dear. He’d be absolutely livid with the NSW Labor Right I reckon. With Gladys and co totally losing the plot recently Labor should not be going backwards like that.

  15. Ballantyne @ #1158 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 6:11 pm

    ItzaDream

    You may be interested in this. It was a livestream from Bonn on 10 September. I must admit I’ve never before seen the chorus located as it is in this performance!

    https://youtu.be/2DdYtiFmK0w

    Thanks – I’ll have a look after dinner! Something to look forward to. It’s a fabulous work – as he a Jew by birth and a convert to Christianity (with lots to talk about in there) looks at ‘resurrection’ (Spoiler – as musically thrilling as it is, I think I prefer Elgar’s take on things – Dream of Gerontius – much guided by the text, to good effect.

  16. @cokeefe9 tweets

    Breaking: Sydney LGA’s ruled out for Service NSW vaccine passport trial, which would have opened pubs and restaurants to test technology in selected parts of the city on October 4 (two weeks early). Instead it will likely be tested in Regional NSW. @9NewsSyd

  17. Jaeger @ #1168 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 6:29 pm

    Jaeger

    A memorable recording indeed. And with the bonus of the superb Janet Baker and Sea Pictures. I have had this recording since it was released, both on vinyl and then CD. It has a permanent place on my iPod. 🙂

    To be honest, I’ve never listened to Sea Pictures before – but I’ll give it a go.

    I missed the original post but while heartedly agree – Janet Baker is definitive. (Also on vinyl).

  18. On the treatment meted out to Julia. The CPG are like hounds after a fox. They follow the leader.

    @brockathome
    6m
    I heard Laura Tingle mention today she’d had to pause watching it because she found it so uncomfortable. She said the press gallery didn’t register at the time just how disgusting her treatment was.

  19. For those that didn’t get the Bill Leak comment tweet above. Which is probably most of you.

    @TheIPA tweets

    Leigh Sales was a close friend of the late Australian cartoonist Bill Leak. In Die Laughing: The Biography of Bill Leak by @FredPawle, she opens up about their deep friendship and her views on his trial over free speech. Order your copy dielaughing.org.au

  20. ItzaDream

    Ah yes, I take your point re Elgar’s Gerontius. Another much loved recording in my collection is the version with Janet Baker, Richard Lewis and Kim Borg, Barbirolli with the Hallé Orchestra.

  21. Indigenous woman and former police officer Dorinda Cox confirmed as WA’s newest and first indigenous woman senator. With what seems like an rare combination of experience, Dorinda seems not too backwards in coming forwards from the small amount I’ve seen of her. Will be good to see her in the house for many I’m sure.

    Dorinda Cox becomes WA Green’s first female Aboriginal Senator
    https://nit.com.au/dorinda-cox-becomes-wa-greens-first-female-aboriginal-senator/

    Yamatji-Noongar woman Dorinda Cox made history on Tuesday becoming Western Australia’s first female Aboriginal Senator for the Greens.

    Cox was confirmed by a joint sitting of WA Parliament to fill the vacancy of Senator Siewert following her resignation last week.

    On Tuesday morning, Cox, accompanied by her family and supporters, walked from Kaarta Gar-up (Kings Park) along Fraser Avenue to WA Parliament.

    A smoking ceremony took place at the steps of Parliament House, along with the handing of a Bookah cloak from Elders.

  22. I wonder if Woolworth’s and Coles have considered giving a discount or other rewards to the vaccinated? Would be a good idea I think.

  23. guytaur @ #1190 Tuesday, September 14th, 2021 – 7:02 pm

    Cat

    Yes. It wasn’t an attack. I got your humour. I thought some positive vibes from me would help. 🙂

    They always help, guytaur. 🙂

    It’s a rocky road between now and when Antony Green calls the election result. I just have to live in hope that the electorate don’t fall for another Coalition snowjob. They are evil. As today’s Christian Porter deviousness portrays, yet again.

  24. Ballantyne

    The airlines should be carrying only fully vaccinated people from some date onwards.
    However, “essential” stores like Woolworths will have to deal with the “vaccine hesitant”.. so providing rewards will be more relevant there.

  25. > That’s Albo subtly telling the NSW Labor Right to go get stuffed and stop screwing up his election
    > campaign. If there’s anyone else apart from Tu Le who would be getting mighty pissed off at this
    > whole sorry state of affairs, it would be him.

    Try undecided voters in seats like Lindsay,Banks,Reid who now have a reason to keep their vote with the coalition. The Daily Telegraph Ch 9/7 and 2GB will lock them in.

  26. Maybe with the genuinely hard core anti-vaxxers we could deny them access to any kind of store and just get the army to deliver food rations to them? Watcha think? 🙂

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