Roy Morgan published its regular fortnightly (for so it now seems) federal voting intention poll on Wednesday, which recorded an incremental improvement for Labor on their already strong previous result. Labor was credited with a lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, out from 54-46 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (steady), Labor 38.5% (up one), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).
Two-party state breakdowns are included as usual, showing Labor leading in New South Wales with 53% (a swing of about 5% compared with the 2019 election, and a gain of one point since the previous poll), in Victoria with 59.5% (a swing of about 6.5%, and a loss of half a point), in Western Australia with 51% (a swing of about 6.5%, and a loss of three-and-a-half points), in South Australia with 57.5% (a swing of about 9%, and a gain of three points) and in Tasmania with 63.5% (a swing of about 7.5%, and a gain of six-and-a-half points. The Coalition’s only lead is in Queensland with 53.5%, a gain of 1.5% since the previous poll but a swing to Labor of around 5% compared with 2019.
The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2735. Assuming this was divided between the states in proportion to population, sub-samples would have ranged from nearly 900 in New South Wales to less than 100 in Tasmania.
Speaking of Tasmania, the first EMRS poll of voting intention in that state since the May election was published yesterday, although it does not capture the impact of the latest developments in the David O’Byrne saga, having been conducted from August 7 to 9. The result is almost identical to that of the election, with the Liberals on 49% (48.7% at the election), Labor on 28% (28.2%) and the Greens on 13% (12.4%). Newly restored Labor leader Rebecca White trails Peter Gutwein 59-29 as preferred premier, compared with 61-26 in the pre-election poll in February. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 1000.
There are many on here (not necessarily you) who regularly argue the “think of the children” angle, when the evidence is pretty strong that Covid remains a disease that children are less badly affected by, and yet we are asking sacrifices of them out of proportion to that risk.
What a load of generalist, unmitigated crap. The ‘think of the children angle‘!?! It’s not an ‘angle’, at least not from me, it’s genuine care and concern about the youngest members of our community.
My position, if you’d care to ask instead of blackguarding me, again, is that we should include children down to 12 years old in our vaccination targets. I’m sure we could achieve that easily before school begins again next year. Possibly even by then Pfizer will have been approved to offer vaccines in the 5-12 year old cohort so they can be vaccinated too. That way we can minimise as much as humanly possible, this sort of thing (which isn’t simply getting this disease mildly):
https://youtu.be/R8KFjSbbmsg
https://youtu.be/NJp8h8MLl6Q
And those ‘Inflammatory Diseases’ in children they speak about, are things like this:
https://bmcpediatr.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12887-021-02561-y
It’s not an ‘angle’, Hugoaugogo, it’s care and concern to do the best thing by our kids as is humanly possible before we send them back to school.
That Qld CHO is a legend, when asked how many deaths would she be comfortable with. “Comfortable?? Come on, I’m a doctor!”.
Now the journos laying into CHO Janette Young, FFS. Absolutely disgraceful. She quite rightly walked out and conference shut down.
Where are the journos laying into Gladys and her CHO with this level of hositility??? I’ll take my covid-zero over NSW’s ‘outcome’ and it’s all thanks to our Premier & CHO.
While I agree that politicans and those in high public office should be held to account, raking them over the coals for going against the demented group think down south is another thing entirely.
Janette Young has just lost her shit at the Brisbane press pack. She did a good job of it, too!
It’s very heartening to see the Green vote in decline in Germany, coinciding with a healthy rise in the vote for the SPD.
Hugoaugogosays:
Friday, September 3, 2021 at 10:13 am
You obviously never been bullied in school. prob be safer at home. Imagine the shame and bullying if they get covid19.
https://www.verywellmind.com/school-bullying-drops-during-pandemic-research-shows-5193683
Young has said that Qld can open up once everyone over the age of 12 has had the opportunity to have been vaccinated. It’s their choice if they don’t want to look after themselves.
Henry @ #142 Friday, September 3rd, 2021 – 10:18 am
She should have said ‘as many as Gladys thinks expendable’
Hugoaugogo,
Kids from abusive homes or any other kind of difficult circumstance, or simply if their parents work in an essential job, are able to send their kids to school now. I see them walk past the door to go to the school down the road from me, every day.
So, concern trolling isn’t going to work as an argument, I’m afraid.
What the f is wrong with our media,
Qld recorded zero cases and gets this treatment,
It’s gone beyond a frickin joke
”
Nsays:
Friday, September 3, 2021 at 9:37 am
And Labor should be breathtakingly audacious too, if that’s what it takes to win the election. Highlight people in their electorates who have died from COVID-19, family permission granted, and get photos of them and testimonials from their family members describing what lovely people they were, and then just simply say that they would probably be alive today if Scott Morrison hadn’t screwed up the response to the pandemic. Brutal, but effective.
Morgue porn?? Nah. Some things are not fit for public amusement/political exploitation. Horrible deaths are one of them.
”
Western media encourages a lot of morgue porn from developing world and which some journos of those developing worlds gleefully provided for a few dollars like when they showed burial sites and funeral pyres but where as when it comes to their own countries it is respect for the dead.
JohnCee @ #154 Friday, September 3rd, 2021 – 10:19 am
Hmm, let me guess, reporters, they aren’t journalists, from the Courier Mail?
I can’t fathom how disgusting our media is.
Absolutely vile
@cheryl_kernot tweets
Watching Qld press conference. Why is it that Sydney press pack are so unbelievably docile? If ever hard questions were needed it’s to Gladys. Today I want to know what “scaling back contact tracing” means in practice. I want to know if we’re at the point of letting it rip
? ♀️
Guytaur
Easy answer. Cos NSW is a liberal state govt.
Guytaur – The reason schools are closed is to slow the spread of Covid, not to stop kids being bullied, and your argument is really a complete red herring. Bullying can be dealt with the normal way, and it’s no sort of argument to keep schools closed.
C@t – I don’t doubt your compassion, I just think it’s out of proportion to the risk. Yes, of course we should vaccinate children against Covid, but right now there is no country in the world who has approved a vaccine for the under 12s, and that’s unlikely to happen until well into 2022 (at the earliest). And this is putting to one side the moral question of rushing to vaccinate children in wealthy western countries (and remember, the risk overall remains relatively low) ahead of adults in poorer countries.
So personally I think the position of the Queensland government regarding children and vaccination is completely over the top and way out of proportion. We can probably open schools safely now, even in NSW and Victoria, and certainly once teachers are fully vaccinated, and the proposed timing in NSW (ie November) seems about the right balance of risks – indeed, I’d say it falls on the more cautious side.
Ven @ #162 Friday, September 3rd, 2021 – 10:24 am
Yep. And I never advocated ‘morgue porn’, what a disgusting slur. I was thinking about a nice picture of the person who has sadly passed away due to Morrison’s incompetence.
Though you are right, Ven. We should deal with the dead in a respectful way. While still being able to make the substantive point.
Also, I don’t see anyone claiming that Channel 9’s interviews with ICU patients suffering from COVID-19 was pornographic in any sense. It was factual and only done with their permission.
Victoria @ #155 Friday, September 3rd, 2021 – 10:27 am
Why don’t brave independent journalists ever turn up to these things.
Why just the hacks.
It’s only a matter of time before Australian children aged 12+ years are eligible for vaccination, as this seems to be in line with evidence based best practice. I’d argue the only reason they aren’t currently recommended for vaccination is because the Morrison govt stuffed up Australia’s vaccine program, and now we’re scrambling to have sufficient vaccines to do the adult population.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations/adolescents.html
Hugo
It’s not an argument. It’s a point of fact.
Your response that I am against sending kids to schools just shows you have no interest in facts. I specifically said it’s a contra point to your promotion of sending kids to schools while there is lack of evidence it’s entirely safe to do so.
It’s not the beer and skittles you are pretending it is.
The Sydney pressers are a farce. As far as I can see the only one who asks really direct, pointed questions is Clenno from Sky of all places. I don’t ever recall seeing the Daily Telegraph or The Oz’s NSW rep there (or asking a question of any depth if they are).
The ABC’s NSW reporter tends to ask softball questions like, “premier, there have been suggestions…what do you think”, whilst the 7 and 9 journos ask generally lame shit so they can frame their grabs for the 6pm news.
Binchicken “allows” one question per reporter, frames her response in a way that suits her agenda and to avoid a follow up nods her proboscis furiously in the opposite direction, waiting for somebody else to say something.
Lordy do we miss Quentin Demspter from the local 730 report, he would have fired up.
If you like cave homes then Petra, Jordan and Cappadocia, Turkey are some of the most impressive I’ve seen.
Hugoaugogo @ #145 Friday, September 3rd, 2021 – 10:13 am
That should be managed by addressing the situation at home, not by pretending that there’s suddenly not a problem if the kids get to spend a portion of their time at school. Abuse can be dealt with the normal way, and it’s no sort of argument to prematurely reopen schools.
And of course the other problem with a disease that spares children while killing adults is that it creates orphans. Covid orphans. Are you seriously suggesting that we intentionally create more covid orphans?
Victoria @ #150 Friday, September 3rd, 2021 – 10:22 am
Just once I wish someone on the receiving end of this shit would let it rip. Ask journalists questions. Make them answer. Call them out. State the bleeding obvious.
Why does it seem like everyone knows their role and sticks to the script. I’m a Labor premier, I get picked on. Journalists say outrageous things to and about me and I come up with a mealy-mouthed responses, that beastly Mr Murdoch controls peoples minds, etc…etc..
It’s time for role busting. It’s time to call a spade a freakin’ spade.
Its the same old have a go at Labor leaders and give an easy ride to the Libs. This will always be the case in this country with the so called journalism of the MSM.
From the Guardian blog
So the Queensland presser ended on quite the heated moment, where CHO Jeanette Young said she was “quite upset” at a question from a reporter asking how many deaths she would be “comfortable with”:
“Come on, can you please remember who I am? I stand up here every day, I went into medicine to save lives.
I’m not comfortable with any deaths that are preventable, so that’s why I want every single Queenslander to be vaccinated, because that is the best protection.
That’s why I’ve spent the last 19 months doing everything I can, and thank goodness I work with a Premier that we have here and a cabinet, to stop the virus from coming into Queensland.
I’m not making political decisions. I am making … No, sorry, you’ve got me quite upset now.
I do not want to see any death of a Queenslander that is preventable, whether it be due to smoking, due to obesity, due to high alcohol intake, due to accidents that could have been prevented, due to road trauma. I could go on. That is what I have spent the last 16 years of my life working on.”
______________________________
Why is this question being asked of someone who is promoting the avoidance of all deaths, rather than asking the death-eaters in NSW and the Federal Government? It is the big question I want answered by the open-uppers, but none of the so-called media are asking. They are too obsessed about being locked out of the Queensland beaches and the WA wineries.
Presser attendance in NSW is approved/vetted by binchicken’s COS or somebody similar.
Michael West or one of his representatives has been trying to get in but no dice apparently.
Yep. And I never advocated ‘morgue porn’, what a disgusting slur.
That is what such material is. Anyone who has ever had the death of a family member used to fill the front page of a newspaper or to pad the TV news will know what I’m talking about. These are tragedies. They are not for appropriation by those who simply want to use them for their own ulterior purposes.
Henry @ #161 Friday, September 3rd, 2021 – 10:36 am
Okay. So Dan should introduce the exact same regime at his conferences.
Let them squeal, then kaboom, these are Gladys’ rules, you don’t seem to mind them.
We’re long overdue for a stunt that gets results.
Hugo- Kids aren’t made to go to school so they can escape from their home life either but you had no problem in using it as a justification to send kids back to school.
Hugo:
While I do think you have some points on the risk/reward involved in opening up schools, I don’t know how relevant they are to Queensland’s position on the issue, because – apart from the initial lockdown last year – schools have mostly been open here. If my memory is correct, we’ve been in lockdown for all of three or four weeks since then.
The thing is school is already open to vulnerable children and children of authorised workers
I’m so freaking angry about that presser I just called my local MP and sent through a feedback form to the premier’s office. First time I’ve ever provided any direct feedback like that. I wonder how many others are doing the same.
Hugo never cares about facts.
Hugo runs away at the site of facts.
AP stated at her presser that at last weeks National Cabinet they agreed to look at the question of children.
guytaur says:
Friday, September 3, 2021 at 10:33 am
Hugo
It’s not an argument. It’s a point of fact.
Your response that I am against sending kids to schools just shows you have no interest in facts. I specifically said it’s a contra point to your promotion of sending kids to schools while there is lack of evidence it’s entirely safe to do so.
It’s not the beer and skittles you are pretending it is.
Bullying in schools…community transmission of covid via schools. They shouldn’t be conflated…..
Henry @ #167 Friday, September 3rd, 2021 – 10:39 am
Transparent government?
Okay, as per last post.
Labor premiers need to do the exact same thing.
Mundo
Just once I wish someone on the receiving end of this shit would let it rip. Ask journalists questions. Make them answer. Call them out. State the bleeding obvious.
____________________________________
Yeah, I’d like that too. But just remember what happened when Julia Gillard told the media to stop writing rubbish. Not only did they double down on writing rubbish but they are still going on and complaining about it to this day.
The mainstream media are shit (Guardian excepted). And there is nothing Labor can do about it. We know that and don’t need reminding of it on an hourly basis.
BITB – have you not been watching the Vuelta?
The Cave homes in Andalusia have been superb!
Morrison kept saying we were at the front of the queue with respect to vaccines.
When that turned out to be a lie. It wasn’t a race.
And here we now are
What a shit show
N
In advertising Labor can use actors.
As a society we do it with true story movies at present.
That’s not even talking about horror movies.
JohnCee
I’m mightily pissed off and I don’t reside in Qld.
I’ve read that taking viagra ( if you are RWNJ) scrambles your brains, given Rupert is a bloated 90 year old with a wife 25 years his junior it might explain his venom. That’s the hypothesis anyway.
steve davis @ #165 Friday, September 3rd, 2021 – 10:38 am
Oh for a Labor giant of a leader in times like these who could find a form of words and present a demeanor which would hit a reset on all this. Where is the passion, the rage, anger, the urgency.
How long does this charade go on for?
Labor’s brand is identified with a strong health system. This will resonate with voters. In an election in which health is a lead factor, Labor’s usual disadvantages will be discounted to a large extent. The Liberals are shonky on health….deep down, they have form.
The LNP will try to fight the election on grounds other than health…on the economy, on ‘freedom’, on ‘rights’…on anything but health.
Victoria @ #179 Friday, September 3rd, 2021 – 10:43 am
Put it on the side of a bus, drive it around.
It’s what the Killers would have done by now.
@RDNS_TAI tweets
If NSW Govt is going to scale back its gold standard contract tracing then Gladys & Scott need to scale back their reliance on the Doherty Modelling. Hard to overstate how much Doherty Modelling relies on ASSUMPTION of effective tracing #auspol #covid19aus
mundo
The killers? For me they are one of my favourite bands.
Don’t know your meaning? Lol
When I mentioned the bullying aspect the other day, I was mostly just pointing out that lockdown isn’t misery for every kid, and that some probably prefer it to school for a variety of reasons. Certainly I don’t think it’s a reason to delay sending children back to school if it is otherwise appropriate to do so.
Victoria @ #183 Friday, September 3rd, 2021 – 10:42 am
Bingo!