The Age/Herald’s monthly Resolve Strategic poll has caught me off guard by coming out early Tuesday rather than Wednesday as it’s done in the past. It’s the Coalition’s best poll result in quite some time, recording a two point rise in their primary vote to 40% while Labor is down three to 32%, with the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation down two to 2%. While Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish a two-party result, this pans out to 51-49 in favour of the Coalition based on 2019 election preference flows.
Scott Morrison records 46% approval and 46% disapproval, both unchanged from last time, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 28% and up one to 47%. Morrison holds a lead of 46-23 as preferred prime minister, out slightly from 45-24 last time.
The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.
UPDATE: The poll also finds 62% support for a national cabinet deal to ease restrictions when “key targets” are met, with only 24% preferring that states and territories should “go their own way”. However, a great deal would depend here on how the question was worded, and on this the reporting is not specific. Nor can we expect any further clarity from the pollster, since it is not a member of the Australian Polling Council which requires publication of question wording as part of its code of conduct. On the more straightforward question of whether Australia will ever return to complete suppression of the virus, the poll records 27% for yes and 54% for no.
A couple of further points on the poll. The biggest driver of Labor’s drop on the primary vote is the Victorian sub-sample, which had it at 33% compared with 40% in the last poll and 37% in the poll before (it was 36.9% at the 2019 election). Labor also scored a weak result of 26% in Queensland, although it was also at this level in the previous poll (and much the same in 2019, at 26.7%), after ranging from 30% to 35% in the pollster’s first three results. It seems the pollster is no longer providing breakdowns for Western Australia, as it had been before now.
Whereas the Age/Herald released its results online early yesterday, only today has it appeared in the print editions — so to that extent it has maintained its earlier pattern in publishing the results. That presumably means tomorrow will bring us the regular bi-monthly state voting intention results for Victoria, using combined results from this and last month’s surveys.
UPDATE 2: The Age/Herald online report now contains more context, including full wording for the question on easing restrictions, which read thus: “Some state and territory leaders have suggested they might apply different rules at different times, such as using less severe restrictions once their populations reach 50 per cent vaccination or easing restrictions at 70 and 80 per cent if case numbers are still high. Do you think that each state and territory should stick to the national plan of 70 and 80 per cent or do you think they should have the freedom to decide on their own goals?”
UPDATE 3: The Age/Herald brings further results from the poll, which found 38% had a positive and 36% a negative view of Scott Morrison’s handling of the pandemic. Respondents were also unusually asked how they felt about the performance of the Premiers of the three biggest states, and not just those of their home states. This found good results for Daniel Andrews, with 52% positive and 25% negative, and Annastacia Palaszczuk, with 51% positive and 20% negative, but had ones for Gladys Berejiklian, with 26% positive and 56% negative.
I don’t think it adequately describes the situation to just say that Labor have moved to the right or left or stayed put, it has clearly moved more “left” on some issues but other issues it has moved more “right” but even then, what are you comparing it to? Chifley? Whitlam? Yeah, a lot of right wing movement there but then again a lot of more progressive ideas have been implemented since then as well. It’s not as simple as just “The ALP is lurching to the Right.”
Not to mention that things like climate change were considered fringe “hippy” issues up until only recently.
I also think that politics defined by location on the political spectrum is a bit out-of-touch for regular voters. It’s not a left-right thing. While voters aren’t always as simplistic and bread-and-butter as some here claim, they’re also not reading theory and checking Political Compass scores either. But it’s also important that Labor has vision for government and a reason it’s running, not just to be the other guy. And I think a lot here are missing that. People here are too blinded by their hyper-political worldview and see everything as a big show or an ideological battle. Reality is more pedestrian: people just want a good life and a good society to live in.
And while the ideological evolution of the ALP is a nuanced complicated topic. The opposite is true for the Coalition: they have shifted to the right on almost everything over the last few decades.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/08/party-registration-crackdown-tracker.html
Party Registration Crackdown Tracker
This article will follow the chaos all the way to the next election as we watch which micro-parties sink or swim!
Wat Tyler:
Can’t disagree with any of that.
The big problem with writing long posts is that while you’re writing it, you miss newer posts and some people already make similar points. Apologies to those whose points I might have just repeated.
Congratulations to the ACT for being first to have had more vaccines than its eligible population.
So why use, as a term of derision and abuse, ‘the Labor Right’ when you feel like resorting to a put-down of someone?
Left-right is of course a great simplification. In particular, there are multiple dimensions – economic, social, authoritarian-liberal, probably others.
It’s often a convenient shorthand. It does recognise that beliefs often come in packages. If you know someone’s attitude to Black Lives Matter, you have a good chance of guessing their position on climate change or unemployment benefits, for example.
p
LOL
Kevin Bonham @ #1304 Thursday, August 26th, 2021 – 5:01 pm
Nicely done. Thanks, Kevin.
Also, at the end of the day, political parties have to go where they think they can win a plurality of votes in a majority of seats, whilst sticking to their core values. Everything else, by way of policies, especially at election time, bar a few headland policies, is simply embroidery around the edges.
Wat Tyler
Darn hippys 😆
‘Shellbell says:
Thursday, August 26, 2021 at 5:08 pm
Congratulations to the ACT for being first to have had more vaccines than its eligible population.’
___________________________________
Eat your heart out. We lock down like we mean it. We wear masks like we mean it. We QR code like we mean it. We are hunting boosters shots like we mean it.
There is a 500 ha bush reserve up behind our place. Walkers on their 1 hour stints are out of sight. They STILL wear their masks.
Our politicians basically tell it like it is without all the megalomaniacal and homicidal bullshit you peeps have to put up with.
People in isolation are HELPED with food parcels, contact, helped with special requests. They are not the enemy. They are on our side.
Sceptic @ #344 Thursday, August 26th, 2021 – 4:34 pm
She just wanted to announce a fluffy bunny ‘freedom’, even though cases surged past 1000 today.
However, what are we going to get? The Picnic Police? Will they demand everyone’s proof of vaccination at every picnic in the park? Talk about a buzz killer.
boerwar @ #1316 Thursday, August 26th, 2021 – 5:13 pm
The downside, however, is that you have to live in Canberra.
😆
International Relations and Foreign Policy, even Environmentalism can be added to those separate axes. If you were to model somebody’s policy spectrum into a geometric shape, it would be one of those hypothetical shapes that have more than three dimensions that you can’t actually visualise.
Absolutely, I still use the term for that purpose but generally aren’t a fan of being too hardcore with it. Same with -isms. They’re ok to give an outline of who you are but don’t get too obsessed with it.
P1
The downside, however, is that you have to live in Canberra.
__________________________
Just one more benefit of living here. You don’t.
lizzie at 5:18 pm
If it was Gladys the death would have been announced as an after thought following the Easter fluffy bunny news .
Nsw redistribution results just listed look very similar to draft proposals
TPOF @ #1321 Thursday, August 26th, 2021 – 5:21 pm
Ever wondered why Australia has to pay its politicians amongst the highest salaries in the world?
Visit Canberra and you will understand.
Doesn’t look like Julian Hill is going anywhere:
https://youtu.be/cLtKJ3eEXso
Ever wondered why Australia has to pay its politicians amongst the highest salaries in the world?
________________________
They have to?
“Doesn’t look like Julian Hill is going anywhere”
Clearly a few Liberal Party people around about are fearful of Julian Hill’s ability too cut through.
Shellbell
Eligible ACT population 18+
And under 18s ?
“However, what are we going to get? The Picnic Police? Will they demand everyone’s proof of vaccination at every picnic in the park? Talk about a buzz killer.”
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20210826_01.aspx
Tell me something guys. Apart from the bit I’m about to quote, read the page and tell me which spin merchants wrote this? NSW Health web pages are usually fairly pedestrian and neutral. This reads like its written by a political staffer.
As for the pretty much only factual, informational part of the page…
A few questions. First, the way things are going with the R value being higher outside of the “LGAs of concern”, are we going to see more LGAs added to the list? Or all of Sydney? Second, How the fuck is this policeable? Third, to what extent do you think this is an attempt to stem rioting?
“Ever wondered why Australia has to pay its politicians amongst the highest salaries in the world?”
Does the fact that they are a bunch of carpetbaggers have anything to do with it?
Goll
16 +
No data about vaccinations for under 16s of which I am aware even among those already eligible to receive it.
C@t
However, what are we going to get? The Picnic Police? Will they demand everyone’s proof of vaccination at every picnic in the park? Talk about a buzz killer.
And DNA test to prove you are family
Vaccination numbers probably include temporary residents (defence personnel, university students, embassy staff etc).
The left-right divide can be a funny beast sometimes. After all there are many on the right who want climate action but who also are happy with free markets where bosses set what pay rates they can get away with and where businesses can sell pretty much what they want.
Is Australian republicanism a left position? Not necessarily, although most on the right seem to oppose it because most on the left support it.
Even native title and other indigenous rights are not necessarily leftwing positions; just basic human rights stances, that even an economic conservative could sympathise with.
As for environmentalism, surely we all have an interest in clean air, safe drinking water and a planet safe for future generations.
I’m certainly not as marxist as I used to be, mainly because no attempted socialist economy anywhere seems to have worked and few are even formally in existence anymore. So some economic exploitation is probably inevitable, but we can still be in favour of good wages, labour rights, living social wages and progressive taxes.
An interesting analysis on the housing sugar hit.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2021/aug/26/australias-homebuilder-scheme-may-have-just-been-a-sugar-hit-in-the-pandemic-recovery
Sceptic @ #385 Thursday, August 26th, 2021 – 5:52 pm
Sorry, I forgot that one. 😐
TPOFsays:
Thursday, August 26, 2021 at 5:46 pm
“Ever wondered why Australia has to pay its politicians amongst the highest salaries in the world?
________________________
They have to?”
No. It might be because they can vote on their own pay. Surprising eh!
How weird is this …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-26/bushfire-survivors-win-case-against-epa/100408982
We had to get a court ruling to force the Environmental Protection Authority to protect the environment?
I simply don’t understand Australia some times 🙁
Guardian
The government has lodged a public interest immunity claim to stop the tax commissioner from having to give documents to the senate naming large employers who received Jobkeeper – and how much they got.
Public interest isn’t served by seeing who SfM gives kickbacks to.
boerwar
After opening the link in your comment I could only say-The thumb ! the thumb ! the thumb ! Aim for the thumb.!
Sir Henry Parkes
Careful Harry
You’re sounding very fair minded, balanced and reasonable.
Are you trying to deliberately get off-side with people.
Ok, my ethnicity may be showing but this one is really worth listening to.
And inflicting at high volume on any nearby Sassenachs. 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VB_OXIVuM1E
covid19data.com.au/vaccines has figures for 16+ and 12+ as a percentage of population; the difference should be 12-15 year olds as a percentage of population – but I’m not sure what good that is.
Daniel Ortega isn’t even a Marxist any more!
Ch 10 news started with Gladys’ “freedom day” announcement but then went into detail of what is actually on offer and by the end it sounded like a cruel hoax. It is nothing more than a slight easing of restrictions, not to start until 13/9, only for fully vaccinated people and pitifully little for people in the “LGAs of Concern”. Meanwhile the 1,019 new infections, hospital problems and the daily grind for those worst affected by lockdown are facts of life right now.
C@tmomma @ #1317 Thursday, August 26th, 2021 – 5:15 pm
And thinking on this further, how is people picnicing in groups of 5 any different to what I regularly see on my walks around Redfern, Newtown and Surry Hills every weekend, NOW?!
Well thank you Goll.
I do try to be fair-minded and reasonable; I believe that’s why I’m on the left. That is a bit subjective of me, but I can’t see why reasonable people would not want everyone, or as many people as possible, to live decent lives, free from want, lack of opportunity and persecution.
I also can’t see why anyone would want to ignore dangers to our environment.
How we get there of course can be a matter for genuine disagreement; hence the Labor-Greens conflict we see here sometimes.
Jaeger
I may be misreading that but that seems to be limited to converting 16+ vaccinations percentages to 12+ and whole population percentages rather than telling us how many 12-15s have had vaccines.
That’s a big chook shed. Is he going into poultry farming?
And what happened to the hi-viz and safety goggles?
P1 – pretty classless Canberra-bashing.
Last time I checked, didn’t you say your business was dependent on Canberra traffic?
We had the choice to leave, but we’ve chosen to remain here. It’s a great city with a sense of community, strong committment to social and environmental justice and (while definitely expensive) excellent food and drink options.