Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 32, Greens 12

An unusually strong set of voting intention numbers for the government from Resolve Strategic, which finds Labor’s primary vote lower than in 2019.

The Age/Herald’s monthly Resolve Strategic poll has caught me off guard by coming out early Tuesday rather than Wednesday as it’s done in the past. It’s the Coalition’s best poll result in quite some time, recording a two point rise in their primary vote to 40% while Labor is down three to 32%, with the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation down two to 2%. While Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish a two-party result, this pans out to 51-49 in favour of the Coalition based on 2019 election preference flows.

Scott Morrison records 46% approval and 46% disapproval, both unchanged from last time, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 28% and up one to 47%. Morrison holds a lead of 46-23 as preferred prime minister, out slightly from 45-24 last time.

The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.

UPDATE: The poll also finds 62% support for a national cabinet deal to ease restrictions when “key targets” are met, with only 24% preferring that states and territories should “go their own way”. However, a great deal would depend here on how the question was worded, and on this the reporting is not specific. Nor can we expect any further clarity from the pollster, since it is not a member of the Australian Polling Council which requires publication of question wording as part of its code of conduct. On the more straightforward question of whether Australia will ever return to complete suppression of the virus, the poll records 27% for yes and 54% for no.

A couple of further points on the poll. The biggest driver of Labor’s drop on the primary vote is the Victorian sub-sample, which had it at 33% compared with 40% in the last poll and 37% in the poll before (it was 36.9% at the 2019 election). Labor also scored a weak result of 26% in Queensland, although it was also at this level in the previous poll (and much the same in 2019, at 26.7%), after ranging from 30% to 35% in the pollster’s first three results. It seems the pollster is no longer providing breakdowns for Western Australia, as it had been before now.

Whereas the Age/Herald released its results online early yesterday, only today has it appeared in the print editions — so to that extent it has maintained its earlier pattern in publishing the results. That presumably means tomorrow will bring us the regular bi-monthly state voting intention results for Victoria, using combined results from this and last month’s surveys.

UPDATE 2: The Age/Herald online report now contains more context, including full wording for the question on easing restrictions, which read thus: “Some state and territory leaders have suggested they might apply different rules at different times, such as using less severe restrictions once their populations reach 50 per cent vaccination or easing restrictions at 70 and 80 per cent if case numbers are still high. Do you think that each state and territory should stick to the national plan of 70 and 80 per cent or do you think they should have the freedom to decide on their own goals?”

UPDATE 3: The Age/Herald brings further results from the poll, which found 38% had a positive and 36% a negative view of Scott Morrison’s handling of the pandemic. Respondents were also unusually asked how they felt about the performance of the Premiers of the three biggest states, and not just those of their home states. This found good results for Daniel Andrews, with 52% positive and 25% negative, and Annastacia Palaszczuk, with 51% positive and 20% negative, but had ones for Gladys Berejiklian, with 26% positive and 56% negative.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,443 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 32, Greens 12”

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  3. I thought this was a joke, but the congaline of ex-Liberals and fellow travellers are making a meal of sheltered workshop in corporate life ..

    ‘Crown Resorts has appointed a new chair, with Helen Coonan exiting the stage in the wake of the punishing Victorian royal commission and New South Wales gaming inquiry, and amid a royal commission in WA.

    The James Packer-backed group on Thursday announced Coonan would on Friday retire from both the board and her role as Crown chair.

    She will be replaced by Ziggy Switkowski, who is currently the chancellor of RMIT University and a non-executive chairman of NBN Co.

    Switkowski will formally take the reins following approvals, a Crown spokesperson said, with the non-executive director Jane Halton to act as the firm’s interim chair.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/26/ziggy-switkowski-named-as-new-chair-of-crown-resorts-amid-inquiry-fallout?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1629973707

  4. laughtong @ #450 Thursday, August 26th, 2021 – 8:32 pm

    C@t
    The assumption that everyone has a smart phone and the skills to set up and use the Medicare or mygov apps is just so wrong.
    I know one elderly lady with some tech skills but a phone that can’t handle the apps. My oh has a suitable phone but no tech skills.

    Police aren’t going to be happy about trying to sort out the chaos that will ensue. I reckon it’s going to turn into a fully-fledged debacle.

  5. BB

    I suspect a proper digital certificate will be passed from the Immunisation Register to the QR apps, Qantas and the like. The app or reader will honour the rendered image (most likely a personalised and date stamped QR code).

    As for the Rex Patrick photoshopped in 5 minutes fake, you might get in to the local coffee shop, or convince the picnic policeman – but nowhere hooked into the valid network will accept.

  6. C@tmomma @ #1391 Thursday, August 26th, 2021 – 8:26 pm

    This needs to be repeated every day:

    And the Lord wept. The climate scientists in Australia have been silenced since Abbott won in 2013 – so successfully silenced that some purported supporters of action on climate change on this very blog are going to try and keep the science-denying Coalition in power at the next Federal election.

    It seems to me we can have either the science-denying Coalition, or the science-denying Labor party in government, and it would make little difference – the difference between their fossil-fuel friendly climate policies is currently hair thin at best, and neither is compatible with the latest findings of the IPCC.

    Beetaloo Basin has amply demonstrated just how compromised they both are when it comes to making decisions about fossil fuels, and how willing they are to trade off our future for their own political interests and the financial interests of their donors.

    Which is why I – and an increasing number of others – are promoting the idea of giving first preferences to science-affirming independents and/or minor parties. Then by all means give your subsequent preferences to whichever “party of government” you prefer.

    It is the best – possibly the only – way to ensure we actually get climate action in the next parliament, no matter which party wins.

  7. There is dissension in NDSW Liberal ranks and it has broken out into the public realm via an article by Mulgoa MP, Tanya Davies in the Herald:

    The Prime Minister wrote an article – “Lockdowns won’t be necessary for too much longer” – in which he stated that once we reach 80 per cent we “can start claiming back what COVID has been taking away from us”.

    However, for the people of western and south-western Sydney there will be things that can never be claimed back, things that will never go back to normal. Our residents will never forget how they were trampled on in the panicked stampede towards “freedom”.

    People are threatened to be fired on a daily basis unless they get the jab. A construction worker out here has to get a vaccination to earn an income but his co-worker from Cronulla on the same job site doesn’t need a vaccine.

    Western and south-western Sydney are singled out and blamed at the 11am NSW government press conference as the cause of the statewide lockdown. Police choppers can be heard overhead until all hours of the night.

    And this nugget of gold that I hadn’t realised:

    For those in my community who are trying to do the right thing by getting the priority Pfizer jab, they are being told they won’t be able to receive the second jab until eight weeks after the first, even though three weeks is recommended. We’re an area of concern and we can’t even get fully vaccinated. One can only imagine this is a supply issue and a race to hit first-dose vaccination targets.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-is-fake-freedom-an-unhappy-liberal-mp-tells-her-premier-and-pm-straight-20210826-p58lzz.html

    So, Morrison and Berejiklian are playing with the science in order to reach their opening up targets of ’70 and 80%’.

    Disgraceful, cynical political opportunists.

  8. Bushfire Bill @ #446 Thursday, August 26th, 2021 – 8:29 pm

    Seriously… it would be very easy to forge a Medicare “Covid Vaccination” certificate.

    Import PDF into Photoshop, change the text, save, then print. Only trivial skills required.

    There is no question this will be done.

    If only grandma and grandpa had the skills.

    Mostly I think you’ll just find utter confusion and dismay if the Police bring it up when they check their Picnic status.

  9. Sproquet:

    As for the Rex Patrick photoshopped in 5 minutes fake, you might get in to the local coffee shop, or convince the picnic policeman – but nowhere hooked into the valid network will accept.

    That’s all we want up here in Snoozeville. Just a passport to speak to friends and have them ’round to share a glass of wine and a nice steak ‘n chips, with salad and pepper sauce (all dressings homemade, natch).

  12. My last job was 5 years ago working as an IT contractor for Human Services in Tuggeranong.

    And the system I worked on was the Immunisation Register.

    At that stage it only handled up to 7 years old but we were changing it to do up to 14.

    The next phase was whole of life.

    I thought at the time that this could be useful if I get a nail through my toe as I could check when I had my last tetanus shot never thinking how it would become almost as important as a driving licence.

  13. Sen Raff Ciccone
    The federal electorate of Wannon needs a representative willing to speak out on local issues including employment and labour shortages, housing availability, NBN connectivity and mobile blackspots, and general access to health and other government services. As one of those who lost their job at Keppel Prince, Councillor Gilbert Wilson is all too familiar with the Liberal’s lack of support for local industries.

    This is amongst many reasons Cr Wilson is running as the ALP Wannon candidate at the next federal election. Cr Wilson boasts a wealth of experience. As Mayor on three occasions and a life member of the South West District Football-Netball league, Cr Wilson has a deep understanding of the needs of the Wannon electorate.
    ________________
    A friend of the family is Gilbert. A tough ask up against Tehan but someone has to do it.
    Good to see the ALP going back to a grass roots candidate instead of a typical union hack.
    His dad ran against Fraser back in the late 70’s and was my woodwork teacher at High School. As well as my cricket coach, footy coach, basketball coach. Also provided a reference for my 1st job.
    I hope Gilbert does his old man proud.

  14. BB

    For me, I’m keeping a track of the international standards with vaccine passports – so that should overseas travel open up, I can comply.

    The two global leaders are the EU with their GreenPass, and the airline body IATA Travel Pass. Probably will dominate the globe standard wise, as the US are letting States and even cities like NY do their own thing (cause freedom I guess).

    Australia should move heaven and earth to fit in with the EU and the IATA standards – do you think we will? Or have another ‘COVIDSafe’ debacle..

  15. BB

    Didn’t Snoozeville have a covid scare recently? Nothing showing on the map.

    Yes, there was a Tuncurry case transplanted from Newcastle, plus some traces in the Cape Hawke/Forster sewerage plant.

    The lady at the local boozer, who knows everything, said her daughter knows the Tuncurry chick from Newcastle – a uni pal – and that’s under control. Nothing to worry about.

    The sewerage matter is more concerning, but there have been (typically) no further updates.

    The carpark at the local mall was only about 25% full the other day (normally 90%). Locals are taking matters into their own hands.

  17. Cud Chewer @ #1393 Thursday, August 26th, 2021 – 8:31 pm

    C@t

    The picnic policy will serve to highlight how many people in most families aren’t fully vaccinated.

    I think it’ll more or less give everyone a blank check to do whatever they feel like. The rules are borderline incomprehensible, and unenforceable in any practical way.

    Just one more from the “things you do when you secretly want to fail” column. Gladys has form chucking these around.

  19. Sprocket,

    You’re young. You’re handsome. Your lady is beautiful, with an enchanting smile. For youse, the fleshpots of Europe and other foreign climes are an enticement.

    Us here in Snoozeville? We are basically stay-at-homes. I have promised HI a(nother) Grand Tour of Europe, but after that it’s Down Home all the way.

    A Photoshopped COVID passport will do nicely for those near horizons.

  21. Bushfire Bill @ #1393 Thursday, August 26th, 2021 – 8:29 pm

    Seriously… it would be very easy to forge a Medicare “Covid Vaccination” certificate.

    Import PDF into Photoshop, change the text, save, then print. Only trivial skills required.

    There is no question this will be done.

    It’s already been done. I can’t recall the Senator but he did one in about 30 minutes. He advised the relevant minister but I imagine bugger all was done to tighten the system.

  25. “ It seems to me we can have either the science-denying Coalition, or the science-denying Labor party in government, and it would make little difference – the difference between their fossil-fuel friendly climate policies is currently hair thin at best, and neither is compatible with the latest findings of the IPCC.

    Beetaloo Basin has amply demonstrated just how compromised they both are when it comes to making decisions about fossil fuels, and how willing they are to trade off our future for their own political interests and the financial interests of their donors.

    Which is why I – and an increasing number of others – are promoting the idea of giving first preferences to science-affirming independents and/or minor parties. Then by all means give your subsequent preferences to whichever “party of government” you prefer.

    It is the best – possibly the only – way to ensure we actually get climate action in the next parliament, no matter which party wins.”

    _______

    The shorter P1:

    Virtue signal with your first primary preference vote, then … assume your Tory Power stance.

    ‘Cause apparently, when we all know that at least 140 (and in all probability 145) out of 151 seats will fall to either the coalition or Labor, that will somehow magically get climate change action.

    Matt Canavan, Barnaby Joyce and all the other pirates thank you for your sheer pig headed stupidity P1!

  28. Hmm…
    If future Qantas announces that their staff are 100% vaccinated significantly ahead of schedule, I have a theory as to why that might be.

  29. Expat

    “Using data available up until August 25, it found that if restrictions were fully lifted when 80 per cent of adults were vaccinated, infections could surge to 40,000 cases a day.

    The modelling showed that in the following month, half a million people could become infected with the virus, even with continued testing, tracing, isolation, quarantine and international travel restrictions.”

    Well that will contribute to natural herd immunity, particularly if contained to Sydney…

    Edit: half a million people is 11 percent of Sydney. Quite significant.

  30. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/08/24/resolve-strategic-coalition-40-labor-32-greens-12/comment-page-29/#comment-3688436

    When read the QR Code is converted to a data packet in vds format and it is validated against records held on the immunisation register. It will have record keys that will only be in the QR Code and on the database. Doesn’t seem to be hackable yet.

    The QR code is initially for international travel and will be compatible with EU and IATA, assuming they have a standard

  31. All the Oz articles online are about opening up and freedoms. Its fucking months away. As if lockdown is like the worst prison in the world.

  32. Premiers: Time to lead us out of restrictions
    Reopening with thousands of active Covid-19 cases will not lead to more deaths over six months than waiting for low virus numbers, the Doherty Institute has found.

    This is one of Murdochs justifications/demands.

  33. Reinvigorated PM turns tables on premiers
    Scott Morrison is at his best when he is campaigning. And now he has a campaign.

    More bollocks from Smokos best friend in the MSM Simon Benson.

  34. steve davis @ Thursday, August 26, 2021 at 11:07 pm

    Well THAT is a lie. Complete misrepresentation. Murdoch once again. Far more responsible for shifting the Overton window than any individual political party.

  37. I head Prof Lewin being mealy mouthed about this on PM.
    Very disappointing.

    Incidentally this guy from the Burnet Insitute gives some pretty scathing criticism of the Doherty modelling, including things that directly contradict what was quoted in that abc article you just linked.

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/healthreport/have-we-misunderstood-the-doherty-modelling/13510298

    Doherty model says with 80% vax, we’d be in severe lockdown 30 percent of the time.
    Doherty model assumes contact tracing is as important as the vaccine.
    Doherty model assumes contact tracing is 88% as efficient as it was in Sydney last year.
    Doherty model also assumes a larger proporition of case symptomatic – which pushed down efficiency of contact tracing.
    A 12% decrease in contact tracing results in a 30% increase of time in lockdown.
    Doherty model is really for the whole of Australia. It starts with 30 cases over the whole of Australia.

    Consistent exponential increase. Which means that as more controls are introduced the effect is being lost by less effective contact tracing.

    The LGAs of concern doubling at 13 days. Outside of the LGAs doubling time of 7 days.
    Which means in 2 weeks the LGAs outside of the “concern” LGAs will be as bad.

    Ispo, if Gladys/Kerry are consistent, there will be more more LGAs in the “concern” area before the picnic.

  38. I heard a criticism elsehwere saying that the Doherty model doesn’t really understand the increased transmission among children and how that impacts spread through adults.

  39. After f@cking up the vaccine roll out and quarantine which has destroyed many peoples livelyhoods, it is nice to know that Scotty is now “rejuvenated” with his 70 percent to open up announcement.
    With his track record I just cannot wait to see what happens next, im sure it will be an absolute baller!

  41. An intervention is needed in NSW and remain that way for the rest of the year and all of next year.
    Berejiklian is no longer heeding advice.
    It wouldn’t surprise if Morrison tried to use an intervention for political considerations.
    So much now depends on the Premiers and Chief Ministers to provide suitable pandemic strategies and prevent the Berejiklian/Morrison pandemic incompetence in NSW from spreading across the entire nation.
    Picnic indeed!

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