Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 32, Greens 12

An unusually strong set of voting intention numbers for the government from Resolve Strategic, which finds Labor’s primary vote lower than in 2019.

The Age/Herald’s monthly Resolve Strategic poll has caught me off guard by coming out early Tuesday rather than Wednesday as it’s done in the past. It’s the Coalition’s best poll result in quite some time, recording a two point rise in their primary vote to 40% while Labor is down three to 32%, with the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation down two to 2%. While Resolve Strategic doesn’t publish a two-party result, this pans out to 51-49 in favour of the Coalition based on 2019 election preference flows.

Scott Morrison records 46% approval and 46% disapproval, both unchanged from last time, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 28% and up one to 47%. Morrison holds a lead of 46-23 as preferred prime minister, out slightly from 45-24 last time.

The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.

UPDATE: The poll also finds 62% support for a national cabinet deal to ease restrictions when “key targets” are met, with only 24% preferring that states and territories should “go their own way”. However, a great deal would depend here on how the question was worded, and on this the reporting is not specific. Nor can we expect any further clarity from the pollster, since it is not a member of the Australian Polling Council which requires publication of question wording as part of its code of conduct. On the more straightforward question of whether Australia will ever return to complete suppression of the virus, the poll records 27% for yes and 54% for no.

A couple of further points on the poll. The biggest driver of Labor’s drop on the primary vote is the Victorian sub-sample, which had it at 33% compared with 40% in the last poll and 37% in the poll before (it was 36.9% at the 2019 election). Labor also scored a weak result of 26% in Queensland, although it was also at this level in the previous poll (and much the same in 2019, at 26.7%), after ranging from 30% to 35% in the pollster’s first three results. It seems the pollster is no longer providing breakdowns for Western Australia, as it had been before now.

Whereas the Age/Herald released its results online early yesterday, only today has it appeared in the print editions — so to that extent it has maintained its earlier pattern in publishing the results. That presumably means tomorrow will bring us the regular bi-monthly state voting intention results for Victoria, using combined results from this and last month’s surveys.

UPDATE 2: The Age/Herald online report now contains more context, including full wording for the question on easing restrictions, which read thus: “Some state and territory leaders have suggested they might apply different rules at different times, such as using less severe restrictions once their populations reach 50 per cent vaccination or easing restrictions at 70 and 80 per cent if case numbers are still high. Do you think that each state and territory should stick to the national plan of 70 and 80 per cent or do you think they should have the freedom to decide on their own goals?”

UPDATE 3: The Age/Herald brings further results from the poll, which found 38% had a positive and 36% a negative view of Scott Morrison’s handling of the pandemic. Respondents were also unusually asked how they felt about the performance of the Premiers of the three biggest states, and not just those of their home states. This found good results for Daniel Andrews, with 52% positive and 25% negative, and Annastacia Palaszczuk, with 51% positive and 20% negative, but had ones for Gladys Berejiklian, with 26% positive and 56% negative.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,443 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 40, Labor 32, Greens 12”

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  1. jt1983
    “We had the choice to leave, but we’ve chosen to remain here. It’s a great city with a sense of community, strong committment to social and environmental justice and (while definitely expensive) excellent food and drink options.
    ✔️✔️✔️

  4. I have not yet heard Mary-Louise say anything which agrees with Scotty’s or Gladys’ actions against the virus. She’s been giving the same advice for months and they take no notice. It’s a wonder she doesn’t throw up her hands and walk away.

  5. I wonder wether Anastacia will badged the Toowoomba Airport quarantine centre she’s building something other than the ‘National Resilience Centre?’

  8. “sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, August 26, 2021 at 6:23 pm
    I wonder wether Anastacia will badged the Toowoomba Airport quarantine centre she’s building something other than the ‘National Resilience Centre?’”

    The Scotty Memorial Plague Centre?

  10. A man in his 60s has died from COVID-19, today’s fourth reported death in NSW. He acquired the virus earlier this month while he was an inpatient at Nepean Hospital.

  12. Charles Firth

    NSW Govt: YOU CAN ALL GO ON PICNICS IN A FEW WEEKS (oh and our hospitals are collapsing under the pressure of the outbreak) BUT PICNICS! YOU CAN HAVE PICNICS! PICNICS!!!

  13. Victoria @ #1362 Thursday, August 26th, 2021 – 6:54 pm

    Charles Firth

    NSW Govt: YOU CAN ALL GO ON PICNICS IN A FEW WEEKS (oh and our hospitals are collapsing under the pressure of the outbreak) BUT PICNICS! YOU CAN HAVE PICNICS! PICNICS!!!

    I repeat: this isn’t any different to what happens around where I am every weekend. Even this afternoon when I went out for a walk, families were gathering in Redfern Park playing ball and generally hanging out.

  14. I may be misreading that but that seems to be limited to converting 16+ vaccinations percentages to 12+ and whole population percentages rather than telling us how many 12-15s have had vaccines.

    Ah, that would make sense. Thanks for the correction.

  15. I wish “they” would stop going on about “Freedoms”, as it implies lockdowns are some kind of unfair punishment.

    Her Indoors got her second AZ dose today, at the local pharmacy, 10 days short of the appointment booked for the official 12 weeks.

  16. If you go down in the burbs of Sydney
    You’re sure of a big surprise
    If you go down in the burbs of Sydney
    You’d better go in disguise!
    For every one that ever there was will gather there for certain
    Because today’s the day of Gladys Berejiklian’s picnic

    Picnic time for Liberals
    The little Liberals are having a lovely time today
    Watch covid, catch them unawares
    Because they’re sick little Liberals

  18. In my view if you’re in Sydney then ‘freedom’ really means you haven’t tested positive to Covid, nor are you a close contact.

    Perhaps if people thought of it like that then they’d take this crisis more seriously and not take the risk to themselves for granted.

  19. Oh god, I really am a cynic. I’ve already imagined the front page of The Sunday Telegraph on Picnic Freedom Day. Gladys and her boo, Arthur, in the Spring sunshine, on a picnic.

    *vomitemoji*

  23. A terrorist threat against Kabul airport is “very serious” and “imminent”, Britain’s armed forces minister James Heappey said on Thursday as the UK government warned its citizens to stay away from the area.

    “Reporting over the week has become ever more credible. And it is of an imminent and severe threat to life,” Heappey told Times Radio.

    “This is a very serious threat, very imminent,” he said.

    The minister confirmed to Sky News that the attack could come in a matter of hours.

    The warning come as the UK plans 11 flights out of the airport in the next 24 hours, the minister said, acknowledging that many people have chosen to keep waiting outside the airport regardless.

    “There are thousands of people that have ignored that advice,” Heappey said.

  25. Good God!

    No wonder the NBN is such a disaster. I just heard that Ziggy Switkowski is the CEO.

    Ziggy everywhere:

    Crown resorts have announced that Dr Ziggy Switkowski AO will succeed Helen Coonan as chairman, as part of their “planned succession process.”

  30. I reckon there could be a big sleeper issue waiting for Morrison that could bring him undone should he decide to pull the trigger early and run on his glowing promise of freedom for all and the end of lockdowns. I discussed it with a friend only yesterday, then coincidentally I heard a bloke on talkback radio today talking about the same thing. He said he was very concerned for the safety of his three young children if we were to rush into opening up too soon with so much covid now circulating; and why wouldn’t he be? Children under the age of 13 have not been vaccinated and would be sitting ducks.

    Handled properly I think that would be a very poignant message for Labor to run an effective fear campaign on. There would be a very considerable cohort out there with whom it would resonate, your’s truly being one of them. I just hope the Labor brains trust is smart enough to use it if they get the chance.

  31. When I think of the time-servers, sociopaths, blame-shifters, inveterate liars and megalomaniacal monsters HI and I encountered among “Senior Management” in our stoush with NSW Health, I worry for my state, and then reach for my gun.

  33. Socrates@4.21

    Soc@4.21 pm

    From a Federal government with a galaxy of administrative failures, this has to be one of the brightest stars:
    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/aug/26/australian-research-council-disqualifies-22m-worth-of-applications-under-new-controversial-rule

    Maximum harm, achieved by minimal administrative rule change, with minimal prior thought. The only reason why whoever came up with this rule will not get an OA for it is that I can’t think of a way a fossil fuel company benefits.

    The only reason why whoever came up with this rule will not get an OA for it is that I can’t think of a way a fossil fuel company benefits.

    Oh, the fossil fuel companies benefit “bigly”.

    Whether this was because of malevolence – someone in the ARC bureaucracy knew that this rule would catch grants wanting to do research on climate change – or sheer dumb Inspector Clouseau type stumbling on the perfect way to exclude any grants on climate science, we will only know if a whistleblower emerges.

    How do I know.

    Science and Technology Australia collected information from people who had their grants denied because they breached the new (and very well hidden, like in that bottom draw of the locked filing cabinet on Alpha Centauri) *”preprint” rule.

    Science and Technology Australia found that the “preprint” rule, disproportionately affected grants in physics, astrophysics, chemistry and mathematics.

    Sounds obscure and harmless? Yes it sounds it.

    Is it?

    No bloody way. Climate science is made up of the four disciplines most directly affected – modelling , understanding how the earth heats up, and tipping points occur, understanding positive feedback into the system from things such as melting glaciers. Astrophysics – there is a lot of crossover between modelling planetary and stellar atmospheres, and doing the same for the atmosphere of the Earth.

    So, as far as I am concerned a smoking gun for this directly killing climate science research.

    That was yesterday’s news.

    Today, as reported in the Guardian article referenced by Socrates above, a motion moved earlier in the week by Mehreen Faruqui (G) and co-sponsored by Kim il Carr (ALP) [not his real name], resulted in the tabling of documents this morning before the senate showing that:
    All of the applications hit by the rule were in the physical sciences, in which academic preprints are widely used.

    22 million $AUD of applications denied, many careers destroyed – stay in Australia and leave science, or go overseas and leave your family and friends. And now, Australia is not just a 24 hour flight from wherever you are living. You leave Australia, you may never see you elderly parents again alive.

    Why is this a blow to climate science research in Australia?

    Australia has some of the leading climate science groups in the world. Australian researchers regularly play a lead role in IPCCC reports. They are very, very good at modelling, and so far their models have been found to be “spot on” to use a technical phrase.

    Well, you may say, “it does not matter if the research is not done in Australia”, our best and brightest will shine in Germany, France or China, and the world will still benefit.

    Maybe, but a majority of Australians will not take any notice of research done OS.

    This will provide enough voters to keep the science denying Federal Coalition in power.

    And, the Federal Coalition, if they win the next Federal election will, will continue Tony Abbot’s very successful agenda of destroying any research that does not support “Coalition interests”, or “guided” research as they call it.

    And the Lord wept. The climate scientists in Australia have been silenced since Abbott won in 2013 – so successfully silenced that some purported supporters of action on climate change on this very blog are going to try and keep the science-denying Coalition in power at the next Federal election.

    * The preprint thingy:

    When we produce large catalogs of data, large suppositoriesrepositories of coding algorithms, and particularly things important to climate science, like the carefully measured physical and geometrical properties of a molecule (you would not believe how may there are even for a simple atmospheric molecule like CO_2), we put them on carefully curated internet archives. These are public access, and supported by US National Science Foundation (NASA ADS), EU (CDS Strasbourg) etc. funding.

    These archives are not produced by some nutter on their garage printing press. They are curated and checked, rigorously.

    We have been told for years that we cannot include these “research outputs” in our personal publication lists. So, we and our research offices comb through our lists to make sure none of these things slip through.

    However, we have been able to list these things in the “Other Research Outputs” list in our applications. We just needed to explain why they are well-regarded, and a genuine contribution to the advancement of science.

    In 2021, an almost (but not quite) hidden change upended our previous ways of referencing our research.

    The “no reference to any preprint” rule was apparently drawn to the attention of research offices in universities in a webcast sent out sometime last October, along with the other dozens of these things.

    As I said “The rule was there, if only you could have been bothered to go to Alpha Centauri and check your regional Galactic development office, in the locked bottom draw of the filing cabinet int he basement”.

  34. citzen @6:05

    The practical effect of Glady’s “picnic” policy will be to split families as, statistically, nearly all families will have some members fully vaccinated and some not.

    So the picnic police will have to go through every person at the picnic asking for their credentials.

  36. Player One– 7:23 pm

    No wonder the NBN is such a disaster. I just heard that Ziggy Switkowski is the CEO.

    When I used to be a corporate wage slave, we always used to say that if the government really wanted something to fail, they would put Ziggy in charge.

    He had a perfect record.

    He was the boss cocky of Kodak Australia a few years before they went wheels up. HQ’s fault but nice that the vista of smouldering ruins in his rear vision mirror is complete. The global boss of Kodak who oversaw their total fwark up of digital and subsequent demise was also nuclear physicist. A pattern forming ?

  38. The global boss of Kodak who oversaw their total fwark up of digital and subsequent demise was also nuclear physicist. A pattern forming ?

    Kodak scientists were the first to detect the original nuclear tests in 1945, so perhaps you are onto something!

    https://youtu.be/7pSqk-XV2QM

  39. He was the boss cocky of Kodak Australia a few years before they went wheels up.

    Let us not forget Ziggy’s brilliant career at Telstra.

    AND his efforts to promote nuclear fission reactors.

  40. I’ve just been in a meeting with our local and federal people and they pointed out something very important wrt the Picnic Policy. That if you don’t have a smart phone, as many grandparents don’t, then you can’t link to Medicare and you can’t prove you’ve been double vaccinated unless you write away to Medicare, or go to a Services Australia/Medicare office and request that they send you a verification of your Immunisation status. So, no picnics with grandma and grandpa then.

  41. This needs to be repeated every day:

    And the Lord wept. The climate scientists in Australia have been silenced since Abbott won in 2013 – so successfully silenced that some purported supporters of action on climate change on this very blog are going to try and keep the science-denying Coalition in power at the next Federal election.

  42. Must be a relation of Craig Kelly…

    Inmates at a prison in Arkansas in the United States have been prescribed a medicine used to deworm livestock to combat Covid, despite warnings from health officials that the antiparasitic drug should not be used to treat the coronavirus.

    Washington County’s sheriff confirmed that the jail’s health provider had been prescribing the drug but didn’t say how many inmates at the 710-bed facility had been given ivermectin, AP reports.

    “Whatever a doctor prescribes, that is not in my bailiwick,” Sheriff Tim Helder told members of the Washington County quorum court.

    It comes after the federal Food and Drug Administration (FDA) told Americans to stop taking ivermectin instead of getting a Covid shot, after a spike in calls to the Mississippi poison control centre.

    At least two people have been hospitalised with potential ivermectin toxicity after ingesting the drug, the state’s poison control centre said Monday.

    ‘You are not a horse’: FDA tells Americans stop taking dewormer for Covid

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/23/fda-horse-message-ivermectin-covid-coronavirus

  43. Seriously… it would be very easy to forge a Medicare “Covid Vaccination” certificate.

    Import PDF into Photoshop, change the text, save, then print. Only trivial skills required.

    There is no question this will be done.

  45. poroti

    You reminded me of Dr Colin Keay from Newcastle University. A nuclear advocate. Also my physics lecturer. God, was he hard core.. (I learnt a couple of things though).

  47. C@t
    The assumption that everyone has a smart phone and the skills to set up and use the Medicare or mygov apps is just so wrong.
    I know one elderly lady with some tech skills but a phone that can’t handle the apps. My oh has a suitable phone but no tech skills.
    I have printed both of ours via mygov

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