Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

Morgan’s latest poll leans a little more heavily to Labor than other recent polling, while showing familiar patterns on its state breakdowns.

The formerly erratic Roy Morgan appears now to be in the regular habit of releasing fortnightly federal polling results, the latest of which encompasses a sample of 2747 respondents surveyed over the previous two weekends. This records little change on a strong result for Labor last time, with their two-party lead out slightly from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46. Changes on the primary vote are negligible, with both major parties up half a point to 37.5%, the Greens stead on 12.5% and One Nation up half to 3.5%.

State two-party breakdowns are provided as usual: these show Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (a swing of about 4%), 60-40 in Victoria (about 7%), 54.5-45.5 in both Western Australia (a swing of about 10%) and South Australia (a swing of about 4%) and 57-43 in Tasmania (about 1%), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,968 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. poroti @ #2936 Tuesday, August 24th, 2021 – 1:23 pm


    He specifically said he wasn’t speaking for the leadership team.

    So what was he doing then ? Waving a Brand Shorten flag, flying a kite, pressuring the ‘leadership team’ ? Any voice now not aligned with what he said will no doubt rustle up some ‘#Leadershit” from the media lizards.

    Just reporting what I heard.

  2. The link to the Duckett article I mentioned in my post above:

    I think when people are arguing about living with COVID – which we have to do – it is not going anywhere – they are really taking about the two Duckett options:

    1) The 21st Century “good” option, with 80% total population vaccinated (2 doses). With a concerted vaccination push, incentives, and sticks as well, we could be close to this mid- late October. And opening up can start in phases.

    2) The 17th Century “bad” model. We open up soon, with less than 50% of the total population vaccinated (2 doses). Cases, long-COVID and deaths go up. The people who are not vaccinated are the people who have found it difficult to access vaccines. They are also the most disadvantaged part of our community, and likely to suffer higher rates of morbidity.

  3. “ I will give preferences based on those policies I regard as important.”

    Truth time princess: after you vote 1 for the independent or minor party candidate that best fits your policy criteria, and 2 for the next best and so on right down the list on the ballot paper until you are left with a choice between Labor and a Liberal (giving you the benefit of the doubt that you’ll put Palmer, ON and any other identified RWNJ below either of the majors) what’s your choice going to be: what exactly excites you to reward the filth with a preference vote, if you are allocating according to policies? Or is it a bet on who would form government and hence deliver pork and bribes to your electorate? What’s your latest rationalisation for your black pea sized tory heart?

  4. ItzaDream @ #2939 Tuesday, August 24th, 2021 – 1:22 pm

    Can I thank Goldie Locks for prompting me to sort out the Vaccination Certificate. Tick.

    For the record, when I then did it on my phone, the MyGovID app requires you to sign into MyGov, which requires you to log into Medicare, which then shows vaccination status. There could well be a more efficient path. 😉

    Linking to QR would be excellent.

    There is a more efficient path. You can get a stand alone Medicare App for your phone from the App Store. 🙂

  5. Itza and all,

    Salamanca calling.

    Bordeaux for me. and, by March next year, I am pretty sure we will get there.

    Of course, if everyone could just kindly get vaccinated by Christmas, then maybe see in the New Year there!

  6. mundo
    I assumed you were but also assumed you would have a view on it. Senior pollies who aren’t Bob Katter don’t pop up with random thoughts for no apparent reason.

  7. Despite the enormous amount of BS on PB about Labor’s supposed environmental and climate concerns by the usual clique of fools.

    It seems they really can’t dump the pretence they give a shit quickly enough.

    Or perhaps Labor is really even far cheaper to buy off for the frackers of the NT, who also gave Labor $ as well as greasing the palms of their Liberal mates.
    A few hundred thousand bucks for about $50 milion of public funds thanks to the Lib/Lab duopoly for more fracking gas.

    Just goes to show how pointless being a member of the Labor party is for Ged and Malarndirri McCarthy as well

    via the Guardian

    Labor to oppose Beetaloo basin funding disallowance
    Paul Karp Paul Karp

    Labor has agreed that it will oppose a disallowance motion to prevent $50m of grant funding in the Beetaloo basin, including for the gas industry.

    Labor has been pressed heavily by the Greens, independent Zali Steggall, and environmental groups to vote in favour of the disallowance. The Senate environment committee is due to report on the issue this afternoon.

    In Labor caucus, a number of MPs expressed concern about voting against the disallowance including Ged Kearney and Malarndirri McCarthy, who went the extra step and urged Labor to vote for it.

  8. There is a more efficient path. You can get a stand alone Medicare App for your phone from the App Store.

    I’ve taken a screen shot which I’ve filed on my phone where I can quickly reach it.

  9. “ I will give preferences based on those policies I regard as important.”

    I give my vote and preferences based on what is in the interests of the people of Australia. Anyone who thinks that supporting the re-election of the same clowns who have been in charge since 2013 is in the interests of the people of Australia is just plain effing stupid.

    If they want to support this mob for their own short term interests, then that is another matter. But it is pretty sad when they dress it up as the national interest or some other highly principled sounding word salad and pretend they are doing it for us.

  10. victoria

    Thanks for that link. I had a little spare time so decided to listen but, phew, a little scarey that the analysis here seems so different to that being spun by Gladys and Morrison. Why do they both think we can’t handle honesty?

    Along with that Resolve poll I just saw my day has been really thrown off track. I don’t trust the ‘quiet Ozzies’.

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