Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

Morgan’s latest poll leans a little more heavily to Labor than other recent polling, while showing familiar patterns on its state breakdowns.

The formerly erratic Roy Morgan appears now to be in the regular habit of releasing fortnightly federal polling results, the latest of which encompasses a sample of 2747 respondents surveyed over the previous two weekends. This records little change on a strong result for Labor last time, with their two-party lead out slightly from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46. Changes on the primary vote are negligible, with both major parties up half a point to 37.5%, the Greens stead on 12.5% and One Nation up half to 3.5%.

State two-party breakdowns are provided as usual: these show Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (a swing of about 4%), 60-40 in Victoria (about 7%), 54.5-45.5 in both Western Australia (a swing of about 10%) and South Australia (a swing of about 4%) and 57-43 in Tasmania (about 1%), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,968 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Victoria’s vaccination booking site has crashed – moments after the premier announced Pfizer will be available to 16-39 starting tomorrow.

  2. Prof. Peter Doherty
    @ProfPCDoherty
    ·
    1h
    Given that we must have a Federal election before May, that COVID is already a major problem in our two biggest cities, and that we will open up when vaccination levels are high enough (if not before), what is being done to ensure we can vote online?

  3. Hugoaugogo @ #2896 Tuesday, August 24th, 2021 – 12:35 pm

    C@t – no, it’s probably worth something, but if you are struggling to understand it (and I do credit you with a pretty decent intellect), then it’s probably not worth that much.

    I actually did get the general gist of it but I guess what I was really after was the assumptions. I thought someone may have been able to distill them into whether they were rational or not or simply playing with numbers to create a headline. That is, that without vaccinations close to 100%, case numbers grow exponentially. I’m just not sure how to test the math to get to the veracity or otherwise of that conclusion. And I would really like to!

    Signed,
    A person that surprised themselves by doing well in Maths in 1st Year at Uni but that was a while ago now. 😀

  4. Daniel Andrews and Mark McGowan are on the attack against Morrison and his cronies , it is getting close to being over for Morrison and his cronies they might as well call the federal election this year

  5. After Doherty, we can expect a stream of projections and forecasts about what might happen after “freedom day”. This morning a study described in the Guardian comprehensively contradicts Doherty.

    Just now another study:

    At the start of the pandemic there were calls for Australians to learn to “live with COVID”. Those calls were mostly ignored by state premiers who ordered stringent public health measures to contain the spread of COVID.

    The current rampant outbreak in NSW has led the Prime Minister and the NSW Premier to return to the “live with COVID” narrative. But when we try to imagine what “living with COVID” will look like, we need to realise that there are two very different “living with COVID” worlds.

    Stephen Duckett
    Grattan Institute health economist and former health bureaucrat

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/living-with-covid-could-end-up-two-very-different-ways-20210824-p58lcv.html

  6. The PM would be satisfied with a low figure because he is impatient to declare the crisis over. But not Andrew Barr.

    The 70- 80% targets that are so often spoken about in the national media are important milestones but they reflect the opportunity to take gentle and measured steps forward in the national plan.

    They are not the end game, though, for vaccination.

    So the ACT will be striving for much more than 80%. And we will be including in our goals all those currently eligible for vaccination.

    This will figure in our decision-making on what future public health settings will look like. So that is everyone over the age of 12.

  7. Victoria at 12:26 pm

    Premier says it’s absolutely doable that Victoria can still get to zero or limited cases in the community, but he said maintaining that zero figure in the long term for sustained periods of time is going to be “incredibly difficult”. #springst

    Elimination has never meant zero at all times. It is one of the bullshit things the RW eejits persistently misrepresent. Zero at all times is impossible but a case does not mean elimination has failed. As NZ’s Dr Bloomfield said “elimination is not a point in time but an ongoing process” .

    The NZ outbreak of covid-19, thanks Gladys, as with Victoria’s is a severe test of their approach. It looks like the virus was roaming free for 10+ days before detection. Then a ‘horror list’ of potential ‘super spreader’ locations when it emerged. Scotty’s Pentecostal mates strike again. Most new cases are associated with a large pentecostal church gathering. They were not breaking the rules at the time and have been doing the right thing since.

    One Covid infected worshiper was a real ‘help’……..for covid . After spending the night and wee hours of the morning in a crowded casino it was off to church service in the morning for some lusty singing and holy rollering in the crowded church.

  8. “ Ah! I see your mining machinery has arrived.

    Is it because Greta is young, successful, or female – or perhaps all three – that drives you so crazy?”

    No. As set out above, it’s idiots like you that I am critiquing – those who confuse noise for legislative action.

    Noise is fine. Good for Greta . She plays her part.

    What about you? Still entertaining giving the filth a preference vote over Labor, just because Labor is trying a different tack this election?

  9. but he said maintaining that zero figure in the long term for sustained periods of time is going to be “incredibly difficult”

    All he had to do was tack a “because NSW” onto the end of that, and the war would be won.

  10. C@tmomma,

    The key is the assumption is that we remove ALL other restrictions when we open up. We only rely on the effect of vaccination i.e. a single slice of cheese in the Swiss cheese model. That is unlikely. Social distancing, QR codes and contact tracing will remain for a start. Masks are likely as well.

    That is why I said that Gladys was Gaslighting when she said that 80% vaccination rates will take us back to before the pandemic. It won’t.

  11. ‘It’s like that movie The Croods’: Scott Morrison likens Australia’s Covid plan to cartoon – video

    I’ve never heard of the Croods and don’t wish to watch it. If that’s an example of Scotty communicating with everyone to make a point, he’s setting a poor standard.

  12. Victorian officials seem confident that the state is on the right track and it’s far from a fait accompli that this runs until we get vaccinated.

  13. lizzie says:
    Tuesday, August 24, 2021 at 12:40 pm
    Prof. Peter Doherty
    @ProfPCDoherty
    ·
    1h
    Given that we must have a Federal election before May, that COVID is already a major problem in our two biggest cities, and that we will open up when vaccination levels are high enough (if not before), what is being done to ensure we can vote online?

    This tweet by Prof Doherty sounds different from what the Doherty Institute report (as quoted by Morrison) says. The professor appears to suggest that Morrison will open up too soon with Covid still playing havoc.

  14. mundo says:
    Tuesday, August 24, 2021 at 12:47 pm

    Send me some of whatever it is your smoking Scott.
    It’s some pretty good shit.

    ——————————

    Well ask him , before he starts to soar like an eagle in the sky

  15. citizen

    Gladys turning handsprings with delight when they have reached 6 million jabs… apparently that is only 30%. Not so much of an achievement after all.

  16. I think the home truth for Scotty is that if he gets into a fight with McGowan and Palaszczuk, that alone will lose him the election.

  17. citizen @ #2904 Tuesday, August 24th, 2021 – 12:45 pm

    After Doherty, we can expect a stream of projections and forecasts about what might happen after “freedom day”.

    Who needs models? Look at the UK (or Israel); there’s your model. 100 deaths/day over there. Scales to about 38/day in Australia (or 55/day using Israel’s latest numbers). Easily over 10k dead within a year.

    Shellbell @ #2913 Tuesday, August 24th, 2021 – 12:54 pm

    I suppose NSW can blame US for our delta then

    Pretty much. The whole world can blame the US (and mainly, Trump) for derailing the West’s response to covid.

  18. did Shorten really endorse the open up at 80%? ooo, if he speaks for the ALP then we’ll see a lot of tune changing very soon.

    i suspect he’ seen some internal polling that being seen to be against returning at least the vaccinated their lives back is a one way ticket to election shitville. Might have something to do with Scotty rebound poll that is stumping everyone (not that i take any polling too seriously these days).

    that report of 10,000 vics cancelling their vax appts when they found out it was AZ and not Pfizer… i dont think any begging is going to work except for a tiny minority. That horse has totally bolted unless the outbreak and hospital/death count gets so high as to panic people… and even current NSW levels are nowhere close

  19. Re C@t @12:10.

    That formula says that the virus reproduction rate (number of people infected by each case) is equal to a base rate R0 (if left running wild) times a reduction owing to vaccination (first brackets) times a reduction owing to community health measures (lockdown, etc – second bracket).

    If all public health measures are dropped, the second bracket increases to 1, the reproduction rate escalates and numbers of cases explodes.

  20. Shellbell

    I suppose NSW can blame US for our delta then

    No, still all Gladys and her belief in her being the ‘Gold Standard’ . Letting numbers get so high in her State and doing SFA means everyone connected to NSW was given lots of extra spins of the ‘Wheel of Misfortune’ .

  21. lizzie @ #2912 Tuesday, August 24th, 2021 – 12:51 pm

    ‘It’s like that movie The Croods’: Scott Morrison likens Australia’s Covid plan to cartoon – video

    I’ve never heard of the Croods and don’t wish to watch it. If that’s an example of Scotty communicating with everyone to make a point, he’s setting a poor standard.

    Morrison’s team is always making pop culture references to appeal to the yoof. However, from what my ‘yoof’ shows me they are also using it against HIM. 😀

  22. Steve777 @ #2922 Tuesday, August 24th, 2021 – 1:09 pm

    Re C@t @12:10.

    That formula says that the virus reproduction rate (number of people infected by each case) is equal to a base rate R0 (if left running wild) times a reduction owing to vaccination (first brackets) times a reduction owing to community health measures (lockdown, etc – second bracket).

    If all public health measures are dropped, the second bracket increases to 1, the reproduction rate escalates and numbers of cases explode.

    Thank you for this also, S777. So, in the real world we will probably end up in the middle somewhere as people let down their guard after we open up again?

  23. Expat Follower @ #2917 Tuesday, August 24th, 2021 – 1:05 pm

    did Shorten really endorse the open up at 80%? ooo, if he speaks for the ALP then we’ll see a lot of tune changing very soon.

    i suspect he’ seen some internal polling that being seen to be against returning at least the vaccinated their lives back is a one way ticket to election shitville. Might have something to do with Scotty rebound poll that is stumping everyone (not that i take any polling too seriously these days).

    that report of 10,000 vics cancelling their vax appts when they found out it was AZ and not Pfizer… i dont think any begging is going to work except for a tiny minority. That horse has totally bolted unless the outbreak and hospital/death count gets so high as to panic people… and even current NSW levels are nowhere close

    He specifically said he wasn’t speaking for the leadership team.

  24. Full vaccine figures will come out in a hour or so but ACT is 15,000 plus for yesterday.

    Considering their eligibles are 344,000 then 15,000/344,000 = 4.23% which means one or both of the first and seconds will increase by 2% in one day. Most jurisdictions are doing around 0.6% or 0.7%. NSW is doing around 0.9-1%

  25. mundo @ #2927 Tuesday, August 24th, 2021 – 1:14 pm

    Expat Follower @ #2917 Tuesday, August 24th, 2021 – 1:05 pm

    did Shorten really endorse the open up at 80%? ooo, if he speaks for the ALP then we’ll see a lot of tune changing very soon.

    i suspect he’ seen some internal polling that being seen to be against returning at least the vaccinated their lives back is a one way ticket to election shitville. Might have something to do with Scotty rebound poll that is stumping everyone (not that i take any polling too seriously these days).

    that report of 10,000 vics cancelling their vax appts when they found out it was AZ and not Pfizer… i dont think any begging is going to work except for a tiny minority. That horse has totally bolted unless the outbreak and hospital/death count gets so high as to panic people… and even current NSW levels are nowhere close

    He specifically said he wasn’t speaking for the leadership team.

    It was probably a kite flying exercise then.

  26. Thread Reader App
    @threadreaderapp
    ·
    5m
    Hola, you can read it here: ARE WE MISUNDERSTANDING THE DOHERTY REPORT MODELLING? This is a… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1429992117695258659.html See you soon.


    Brent Hodgson
    @BrentHodgson
    ·
    54m
    Overall, this is substantially different messaging than what we are getting from Canberra and NSW in their interpretation of the Doherty report.

    But these seem to be the assumptions the report is based on. “

  27. Mundo

    The voters seem to side with their premier over the PM. A dispute seems imperative and Scotty dropping his bundle seems imperative too.

  28. No wonder Scrott mentioned The Croods , he was in it. 😆 From the Guardian live blog.
    .
    The Croods sequel took more than seven years to get made, deals with overcoming childhood trauma, a war with monkeys, a manipulative but charming every man trying to gaslight a key character into turning against their interests, before everyone unites to save anyone from having to be sacrificed, defeating a monster, before two teenagers move in together to be their own ‘tomorrow’.

    (I have a lot of nieces and nephews)

  29. Gladys turning handsprings with delight when they have reached 6 million jabs… apparently that is only 30%. Not so much of an achievement after all.

    The important numbers are 26% fully vaccinated and 48% partially vaccinated. The best that can be said is that we are moving faster but way behind where we need to be.

    Six million out of a required 13 million for 80% full vaccination, job 46% done.

  30. “https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-finds-covid-19-vaccine-booster-significantly-lowers-infection-risk-2021-08-22/?utm_source=reddit.com”

    Promising news. I hope and assume that Grug Crood has not fucked up ordering booster shots. I’m getting my second AZ tomorrow and hopefully a booster early in the new year. I imagine booster shots are going to be with us for some time but I’m fully on board with that. As long as it gets me to Billy the Barber in Kingsford soon…

  31. Can I thank Goldie Locks for prompting me to sort out the Vaccination Certificate. Tick.

    For the record, when I then did it on my phone, the MyGovID app requires you to sign into MyGov, which requires you to log into Medicare, which then shows vaccination status. There could well be a more efficient path. 😉

    Linking to QR would be excellent.

  32. mundo

    He specifically said he wasn’t speaking for the leadership team.

    So what was he doing then ? Waving a Brand Shorten flag, flying a kite, pressuring the ‘leadership team’ ? Any voice now not aligned with what he said will no doubt rustle up some ‘#Leadershit” from the media lizards.

  33. About 4000 people die of the flu a year so that is the kind of mortality we need from Covid to say we “treat it like the flu”.
    That doesn’t allow for all the morbidity from long Covid.

  34. Paramatta Moderate @7:10am

    I can see the political landscape changing a lot in the next few months. Obviously the current situation in NSW has played to Labor’s advantage. But now it’s looking like Victoria (and maybe NZ too) is tracking in the same direction as NSW. And while the situation in NSW is going to get a whole lot worse through September, the modelling (by Chris Billington) suggests that vaccinations eventually get high enough to push daily infections down at a fairly sharp rate by the end of October, and by December the NSW crisis is well and truly over, with the lockdown being just a bad memory. With the federal election still several months away.

    What will all this mean for people’s perceptions of the various leaders and parties? Will Scomo and gold standard Gladys still be blamed for their incompetence in causing this crisis? Or do people just move on with their lives, thankful the crisis has passed? I think you can see what the LNP strategy will be-Liberal is the party which vaccinated our way to freedom and opportunity, Labor are just whingers who will keep us in lockdown forever. So Labor needs to be very careful they don’t get caught on the wrong side of that argument in a few months time, when the Covid situation might look very different from how it does today.

    I think this completely fails to understand the physics and certain practical realities. For a start, Billington’s modelling assumes a hard lockdown through to January. Now, I don’t dispute that a combination of increasing vaccination and a hard lockdown could bring covid under control (meaning a few cases a day or less). But what is the practical reality?

    The lockdown isn’t going to last until January. We’ll be lucky to see it last till mid October when increasing vaccination rates will be the excuse/trigger to substantive easings. Indeed we may never see they peak that Billington predicts (around 3,000 cases per day on Oct 3) because Gladys may do things that raise R, during September.

    The other problem you have is that 56-64% vaccination (70-80 in marketing terms) just isn’t going to cut it. Plus all of our models have inserted some assumptions about both the ability of vaccines to reduce re-infection (something we still don’t have a good estimate of) and about the effect of vaccines over time. In particular there are those (particularly vulnerable) people who got vaccinated months ago and may already be seeing their vaccine-induce immunity in decline.

    A lot of very bad things can happen. There’s really only 2 or 3 countries I can point to where vaccination is sufficiently high to have suppressed Delta and even then its on top of strong restrictions and tight border controls.

    Labor is on very safe ground pointing out right now that 56-64% vaccination is bunk. We need 80+ percent (real). And even then we won’t be going back to “normal”. At that rate of vaccination, there will still be mask wearing. We will still need to have a contact tracing system that announces daily cases and exposure sites – so it will remain firmly in the headlines. There will still be restrictions and to be honest, we don’t get out of this without Scomo getting over his reluctance to have vaccine passports to social venues. All of which will be politically fraught.

    The best case scenario is that we only get into the thousands in September. Easings of the lockdown in Sydney are token and we get to see a peaking in early October. With that there will be renewed enthusiasm for bringing cases down into the double digits. Which will happen only if we are living a very restricted life through to January.

    People aren’t going to suddenly forget this, or forget the fact that all of this came from a limo driver. and Labor would be stupid not to make that one singular mistake (on the part of NSW Health) as a key point in their election ads.

    As part of this most optimistic scenario, vaccination continues into the mid 80s (real). However that means vaccinating school age children. Another thing Scomo will resist and then backflip on.

    So, in the best imaginable scenario, we have full control of the virus by next May.

    Back in the real world, there are things that should be done (vaccinating children, boosters, vaccination passports etc) which will be delayed and mismanaged by Scomo. Net result is ongoing restrictions, no sense of normality and hundreds to thousands of daily cases happening next March.

    Labor needs to do two things. Point out that normality doesn’t come from 56-64% vaccination. The target needs to be much higher – and this difference can be bridged in a few months. It also needs to hammer home the sheer wonton, reckless, incompetence behind allowing a limo driver to be infected.

    This does not work out well for Scomo. Labor needs to be less timid.

  35. Roy Orbison @ #2940 Tuesday, August 24th, 2021 – 1:21 pm

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-finds-covid-19-vaccine-booster-significantly-lowers-infection-risk-2021-08-22/?utm_source=reddit.com”

    Promising news. I hope and assume that Grug Crood has not fucked up ordering booster shots. I’m getting my second AZ tomorrow and hopefully a booster early in the new year. I imagine booster shots are going to be with us for some time but I’m fully on board with that. As long as it gets me to Billy the Barber in Kingsford soon…

    I’m hoping that Moderna will be a big part of the booster programme.

  36. I should add that its a reasonable theory that Scomo/Gladys are eyeing off the UK and hoping that they can get out of this at 64 percent. They won’t. You only need to look at the UK data to see a similar or worse wave occurring here. That will go on for months.

    One other thing these idiots (Gladys etc) aren’t factoring in when eyeing off the UK, is the substantial level of natural immunity. Anything up to a quarter of the UK population has already been infected. If it weren’t for that, their current wave (30,000+) would be even worse.

  37. Expat Follower

    did Shorten really endorse the open up at 80%? ooo, if he speaks for the ALP then we’ll see a lot of tune changing very soon.

    The ALP have not been shouting zero COVID at all. However, a lot of people are putting those words in to the mouth of the ALP.

    I think this is also Morrison’s strategy: accurate the ALP of wanting a brutalist, Stalinist lockdown for ever, and then if the ALP has a plan for opening up scream “backflip!”.

    I think most people paying attention are happy that when we get to 80% of the whole population vaccinated, we can safely open up.

    The article by Stephen Duckett (thanks Citizen for the link) explains why “living with COVID at 80% total population with a vaccination” will work well.

    But he also points out we are definitely not there yet. At the moment living with COVID means the 70% of Australian who do not have two vaccinations are closer to living in the 17 century during a major epidemic.

  38. Roy

    “Promising news. I hope and assume that Grug Crood has not fucked up ordering booster shots. I’m getting my second AZ tomorrow and hopefully a booster early in the new year. ”

    Same here. My hope is that when Moderna is available widely in Chemists, I might be able to snaffle a booster late this year. I had my 2nd shot in June and the promise of declining effectiveness is a real issue – as it is for my mum.

    My real problem is the fucking incompetent government. They are supposedly ordering boosters, but they’re not exactly promoting the fact that everyone will need one and sooner rather than later. Legitimising boosters will make it easier for me to talk one out of a chemist.

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