Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

Morgan’s latest poll leans a little more heavily to Labor than other recent polling, while showing familiar patterns on its state breakdowns.

The formerly erratic Roy Morgan appears now to be in the regular habit of releasing fortnightly federal polling results, the latest of which encompasses a sample of 2747 respondents surveyed over the previous two weekends. This records little change on a strong result for Labor last time, with their two-party lead out slightly from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46. Changes on the primary vote are negligible, with both major parties up half a point to 37.5%, the Greens stead on 12.5% and One Nation up half to 3.5%.

State two-party breakdowns are provided as usual: these show Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (a swing of about 4%), 60-40 in Victoria (about 7%), 54.5-45.5 in both Western Australia (a swing of about 10%) and South Australia (a swing of about 4%) and 57-43 in Tasmania (about 1%), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,968 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. NSW Covid numbers since the start of the outbreak. Vertical lines (time scale) are weeks, the horizontal scale is logarithmic, each major gridline represents a doubling.

    Dotted red line is 7-day moving average.

  2. This study suggests Albo was right about the $300 cash to get a jab.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/24/australian-covid-vaccine-study-shows-social-restrictions-and-cash-would-slash-hesitancy

    Ven

    “I find Dr Young has a more trustworthy personality when compared to other CMOs I watched on TV including Dr Chant , Dr. Sutton .”

    Perhaps I am biased (because Xanthippe knows her through work) but I find the SA CMO Prof Niccola Spurrier also comes across as very trustworthy on covid press conferences. She is highly respected in her fields in SA (paediatrics and epidemiology).

  3. Diogenes at 11:34 am

    I wouldn’t be suspicious of the Doherty modelling. All models make different assumptions etc etc

    It is for sure they modeling was done correctly and honestly. However I seem to remember reading that the government set parameters and or assumptions. If so we’d definitely need to see what governmental “Garbage in” there was in what was modeled.

  4. Poroti

    The immunisation register has been around for years and should be stable and reliable. The QR readers are developed by the States, so are unlikely to have flawed designs and botched implementations like the COVIDSafe debacle…

    Having said that, most people will print a copy to show if the ‘system is down’

  5. I am sure that the Doherty modelling was done soundly. However, I do not trust Scott or Gladys is use it other than to selectively cite and distort to support what they want to do,

  6. Wearing club colours for your vaccination is pretty lame.

    How about some priority draft picks for best vaccinating jurisdiction?

  7. BB

    Gladys slags off all other Health systems, plus all other CHOs.

    Why would she bother with such pettiness?

    Gladys gave a victory speech today.

    No matter what else happens, this is all people will be exposed to, and all they will remember.

    Vale scan research in Australia, including (especially including?) climate science research.

    From a submission by Science and Technology Australia:
    The particular perverse impact of the current pre-print rules in the physical sciences (physics, astrophysics, mathematics and chemistry in particular) where practices on referencing pre-prints have long since evolved;

    The four disciplines mentioned are the one that power climate science. I suspect this is not coincidence, or the ARC would have publicised the changes to the extent that our vary careful research office compliance checks would have spotted the preprint non compliance, and the grants would have been compliant.

  8. “ In point of fact, she is. She’s done more for causes that she cares about than most of us have or ever will.”

    Good on you ar.

    Except that you are confusing noise with action.

    I’m all for noise: we need to build that wall of sound that helps drive the political debate and – hopefully – shift the paradigm of that debate in a positive way.

    But this is a political blog and my main concern is how to elect a Labor government, which by default would change the country to be a more progressive joint on most matters. Particularly the environment and specifically climate policies and action. Greta and P1 – an avowed acolyte of hers (hence my reference) … simply ain’t helping in that regard. Neither of them help in the great cause in getting folk who may indicate an interest in good climate policy but vote with their hip pocket and increasingly are triggered by the likes of Greta (because of the great cultcha wars) to at least preference a more progressive alternative to the Tories. I’m fact P1 – has decided to join in and vote Tory … because of blah blah.

  9. I think the 311,000 involved a big dump of accumulated and unreported negative results.

    Having said that NSW has catastrophic Wednesdays and Saturdays for cases.

  10. As much I I wish the NSW numbers would begin trending down, note that Tuesday morning’s numbers are largely based on samples collected on Sunday (and processed before Monday 8pm).

    But fingers crossed.

  11. casey briggs
    @CaseyBriggs
    ·
    5h
    Quick thread on the ANU modelling being reported this morning that has some scary numbers of deaths being projected if we ‘open up’ at 70% vax coverage.

    It looks very scary.

    But it’s not a model that resembles the reality of what any authority in Australia is proposing. 1/

  12. Earlwood is correct to state that, much as we may revere Greta Thunberg, Climate Warrior Queen, she has less than zero effect when it comes to getting the only party of government that won’t continue to take retrograde steps when dealing with Global Heating. Worship at her altar all you want but don’t try and create some sort of false equivalency between her and the Labor Party or use her as a surrogate and convenient tool for justifying your vote against Labor, because the only real alternative are the fossil fuel dinosaurs in government now.

  13. Gladys and Dr Chant are showing a sense of relief with yesterday’s lower numbers.
    I hope it’s a trend!!
    30 new cases in the ACT not so good.

  14. Here’s a screen shot for the main part of the Vaccination digital certificate from MyGov. I received a link via email a couple of hours after my second shot yesterday.

  15. Barr: ACT will strive for highest level of vaccination. ‘80%’ won’t mean that ACT will abandon other measures.

    Four people in hospital, one in ICU.

  16. The numbers tomorrow will be important. For the last few weeks Tuesday has had low numbers, probably due to a “weekend-lag” effect.

    Also, it is possible that tighter restrictions are coming into play.

    Is it correct that there were no deaths? If so, that is a good sign.

  17. ‘WE NEED TO LIVE WITH THE VIRUS’

    Shorten breaks Labor silence, backs Doherty modelling on reopening
    Bill Shorten has conceded there can’t be a return to zero Covid-19 cases after lockdowns are lifted, nominating an 80 per cent vaccination rate as a threshold for reopening.

  18. C@t
    Clive ? WA ? 😆 Each of the images of Clive on this front page were individual full page front page pictures . Not to mention the paper’s Clive cartoons. Clive has well and truly been ‘labelled’ in W.A.

    e.g.

  19. poroti,
    That’s the point I was clumsily trying to make. If The West turns around and decides to support Clive Palmer’s latest High Court WA border putsch in the run-up to the election, people’s opinions about Mark McGowan and Labor could change overnight. Labor just needs to be wary about it happening is all I’m trying to say.

  20. Although I did find it interesting to hear how Kochie put the shiv between the ribs of ‘ScoMo’ this morning when he pointed out how much more popular Anna P. and Mark McGowan were than he was. 🙂

  21. Heard some shiny people on some morning type commercial telly program late this morning telling me how Scotty has ‘reunited the country’ with his plan.
    How wonderful.
    I’m so happy now.

  22. Douglas and Milko @ #2854 Tuesday, August 24th, 2021 – 11:44 am

    BB

    Gladys slags off all other Health systems, plus all other CHOs.

    Why would she bother with such pettiness?

    Gladys gave a victory speech today.

    No matter what else happens, this is all people will be exposed to, and all they will remember.

    Vale scan research in Australia, including (especially including?) climate science research.

    From a submission by Science and Technology Australia:
    The particular perverse impact of the current pre-print rules in the physical sciences (physics, astrophysics, mathematics and chemistry in particular) where practices on referencing pre-prints have long since evolved;

    The four disciplines mentioned are the one that power climate science. I suspect this is not coincidence, or the ARC would have publicised the changes to the extent that our vary careful research office compliance checks would have spotted the preprint non compliance, and the grants would have been compliant.

    ‘Gladys gave a victory speech today.’
    Gladbags and Scotty are pretty pleased with how their shit sandwich is going down out there.

  23. Heard some shiny people on some morning type commercial telly program late this morning telling me how Scotty has ‘reunited the country’ with his plan.

    Who makes up this bullshit?

  24. Positive developments in VIC

    * Every Victorian aged 16 and above will be able to book to get a COVID-19 vaccine from 7am Wednesday at one of the state’s vaccination hubs. Some 830,000 bookings will be made available, 450,000 for Pfizer.

  25. And mystery cases now linked

    * Seems like today’s 10 unlinked cases could be linked to other infections. Four are in the Altona North and Wyndham area, three in Carlton and Fitzroy area, two in Thomastown and one in Southbank.

  26. Could someone with expertise superior to mine please decide this comment from the Koziol article into easy to understand English please? 🙂

    StBob

    A simple model which captures the main features is: Reff=R0*(1-H*T)*(1-L).
    So if NSWs test & trace and restrictions is lowering R0=5 to Reff=1.3 with 20% vaccination (H=0.2) that stops 50% of transmission (T=0.5) that suggests L=0.71. If we remove restrictions so L=0 but increase vaccination rate H to 70% then Reff=5*(1-0.7*0.5)*(1-0)=3.25. Even with 100% vaccinated Reff=2.5 doubling every 10 days or so. Without improved vaccines which stop close to 100% transmission, opening up means case number grow exponentially. Are we really prepared for this? Perhaps we could take a vote.

  27. C@t

    If The West turns around and decides to support Clive Palmer’s latest High Court WA border putsch in the run-up to the election

    Won’t happen. Mining has gone gangbusters here throughout the pandemic. Check out the State budget surplus. FIFOland has things sorted but letting the Wuflu rampage around WA would really throw a spanner into the well oiled machine. Stokes makes a motza out of mining by way of owning the Caterpillar ‘franchise’ . So apart from Gina,Twiggy,Rio,Woodside and BHP Kerry Stokes would also take a hit from disruptions.
    Then of course there are the zillion tradies/FIFO voters who would also have their incomes slashed with the disruption BinChicken and PM Snake Oil say we ‘must have’.

  28. C@t – one way to explain that comment might be to note that it is from an anonymised poster on a media blog, someone with some understanding of statistics and possibly also infectious diseases, but who probably isn’t a recognised expert in either field. Reading comments in such places (including here) is fun, and sometimes illuminating, but we should be wary about taking them as gospel truth.

  29. ACT chief minister repeating his daily comment that ACT wants to power ahead with vaccinations – just being held back by number of doses coming from federal government.

    Presumably other states/territories have the same complaint – robbing them to give to NSW.

  30. Premier says it’s absolutely doable that Victoria can still get to zero or limited cases in the community, but he said maintaining that zero figure in the long term for sustained periods of time is going to be “incredibly difficult”. #springst

  31. Australia’s federation is about to head into interesting territory over the coming months. Clearly NSW has decided that getting back to zero is now highly unlikely, and that with sufficiently high vaccination probably unnecessary, and Victoria is starting to make similar noises (but without yet fully committing). Even if either state somehow does get back to zero Covid, I think there is a growing acceptance in the two big states that it’s unlikely to stay there once we start opening up internationally.

    At the other end of the argument are WA and Queensland, who for now at least, are sticking to the zero Covid ideal. There’s also Tasmania and SA, but (and I mean no offence to the residents of those fine states) those states are not particularly relevant to the calculus of where Australia goes from here, either in terms of size or of general importance – in short they can do what they want, and it won’t matter a great deal to anyone else. WA is probably in a similar boat, given that it has its own source of wealth (with mining), and is far enough away (from anyone, really) to conceivably go it alone if it decides to.

    So early 2022 might start to see real fractures in the federation, with NSW and Victoria starting to open up to the world again, on the back high vaccination rates, even with continuing Covid cases in the community, and WA becoming increasingly isolationist. Queensland’s decision will then become fascinating – will it throw its hand in with the opening states of NSW and (probably) Victoria or will it keep the borders shut? As a State, it probably has a foot in both camps, and may on its own decide how Australia emerges from the pandemic.

    Throw into the mix a Federal election in that same time frame (where the incumbent appears to be betting the farm on a general desire to open up), and we’ve got a heady brew to imbibe here on Poll Bludger between now and the middle of next year.

  32. C@t – no, it’s probably worth something, but if you are struggling to understand it (and I do credit you with a pretty decent intellect), then it’s probably not worth that much.

  33. Daniel Andrews then gives David Littleproud a serve for his announcement yesterday on an agriculture visa, which Andrews says no one had a heads up about, no one was spoken to about quarantine, and no one in national cabinet was consulted.

    So just say to Mr Littleproud, I don’t think any ag minister knew about this. And if you, if you now have some unlimited quarantine facility somewhere, please let me know about it, and we’ll be sure to use it, if not this sort of grandstanding seems like nothing, nothing at all. They’re just words.

  34. “PARIS — Josephine Baker, an American-born Black dancer and civil rights activist who in the early 20th century became one of France’s great music-hall stars, will be laid to rest in the Panthéon, France’s storied tomb of heroes, a close adviser to President Emmanuel Macron said on Sunday.

    The honor will make Ms. Baker — who became a French citizen in 1937 and died in Paris in 1975 — the first Black woman and one of very few foreign-born figures to be interred there. The Panthéon houses the remains of some of France’s most revered, including Victor Hugo, Marie Curie and Jean-Jacques Rousseau. (Only 80 persons, 75 men and five women, have been accorded this honor.)

    The decision to transfer Ms. Baker’s remains, which are buried in Monaco, comes after a petition calling for the move, started by the writer Laurent Kupferman, caught the attention of Mr. Macron. The petition has garnered nearly 40,000 signatures over the past two years.” New York Times

    ———————————————————–

    One would have thought Edith Piaf would have had a greater claim. However, Piaf’s activities during World War II, in Paris under German occupation, led to suggestions that she was a collaborator.

    For those who may not know of Ms. Baker:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXQPrtJYCJs

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdIGlWD9ScQ

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUbUaBwLnMA

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