Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

Morgan’s latest poll leans a little more heavily to Labor than other recent polling, while showing familiar patterns on its state breakdowns.

The formerly erratic Roy Morgan appears now to be in the regular habit of releasing fortnightly federal polling results, the latest of which encompasses a sample of 2747 respondents surveyed over the previous two weekends. This records little change on a strong result for Labor last time, with their two-party lead out slightly from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46. Changes on the primary vote are negligible, with both major parties up half a point to 37.5%, the Greens stead on 12.5% and One Nation up half to 3.5%.

State two-party breakdowns are provided as usual: these show Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (a swing of about 4%), 60-40 in Victoria (about 7%), 54.5-45.5 in both Western Australia (a swing of about 10%) and South Australia (a swing of about 4%) and 57-43 in Tasmania (about 1%), while the Coalition leads 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 6.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,968 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. I wonder if Morgan’s technique and methodology have become more reliable over the last few years….perhaps WB can shed some light on this…

  2. Morgan’s polling is now done online and by phone, where in the past it was traditionally associated with face-to-face polling. So I think you’d have to say that it’s untested, just like Resolve Strategic and (at federal level at least) YouGov/Newspoll. Someone who got polled by Morgan commented here a while back that they had an endless questionnaire that made them doubt that the kind of people willing to endure the whole thing would constitute a representative sample. This was no doubt an issue with their face-to-face polling as well — Morgan tacks political questions on to the multi-client commercial market research surveys that actually pay their bills.

  3. I’d say Morgan’s method of polling finds Labor’s True Believers who are willing to endure anything to get Labor elected. 😉

  4. Complete vaccination of all health care workers by November 30 to be mandated:

    NSW will make coronavirus vaccinations mandatory for all health workers, with a proposal to require first doses by September 30.

    Health Minister Brad Hazzard will sign a public health order in the coming days requiring compulsory vaccination after reaching an agreement with the state’s peak medical groups representing hundreds of thousands of workers.

    …According to a survey by the union this week, 75 per cent of about 7000 nurses who responded are fully vaccinated and about 10 per cent of public sector nurses would consider leaving the workforce if vaccination was compulsory.

    “There is still a concerning number of people – about 11 per cent – indicating their hesitancy about vaccination or how difficult it is to get a vaccine, particularly in regional areas,” said Mr Holmes.

  5. Morgan swings a bit too much for my taste, but this time around the strong trend for the ALP is again unanimous among pollsters…. Yeah, yeah, it was also unanimous just before the last federal election and we obviously remember what happened…. I am happy for ScuMo to relax, thinking that he has got the “miracles business” under control. In the meantime the ALP knows perfectly well what they have to do and they are doing it, including Albo going on the attack against useless ScuMo:

    If we, here in Qld, do achieve a 50%-50% 2PP on election day, thanks especially to swings away from the pathetic populist Hanson and Palmer and towards the ALP, we may be witnessing a historical massacre for the Coalition nationally, given what other states and territories are also indicating….

    Keep calm and carry on….. 🙂

  6. Well, there you have it. Gladys Berejiklian has made it plain, the citizens of NSW will be ‘free’:

    Almost 90,000 extra trips were taken on Sydney’s public transport on Wednesday compared to the same time last month, despite pleas for people to stay home as cases continue to climb one week before the lockdown is scheduled to end.

    As mobility across Sydney increases on transport and roads, Premier Gladys Berejiklian gave her strongest indication yet that NSW’s strategy is now focused on being the first state to accept life with COVID-19.

    NSW recorded 688 new cases on Thursday and Ms Berejiklian said the state “can’t live in our bubble forever”, conceding it was a challenge NSW was confronting earlier than hoped but one other states would have to follow.

    “Every state has to live with the fact that once you get to 80 per cent double dose and your population is allowed to live more freely, that the Delta variant will creep in,” Ms Berejiklian said.

  7. I can’t see Gladys Berejiklian still being premier in year 2023 when the NSW state election is due

    I can see Victor Dominello being the premier , but will it help the nsw lib/nats to get re-elected dont know

  8. Other NSW Liberal party leadership

    Dominic Perrottet – will not be surprise to see him leave politics at the upcoming state election , Reason NSW ICAC

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    David Crowe opines that to keep his re-election hopes alive, Scott Morrison has to put his authority on the line.
    More from Crowe who writes that a national deal is starting to fracture on the vaccination target agreed only weeks ago to ease lockdowns and open the country, with state leaders at odds and Prime Minister Scott Morrison rejecting calls to drive coronavirus case numbers to zero.
    Katherine Murphy details the ACT’s Michael Barr’s pointed attack on Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of the NSW Covid crisis.
    From vaccines to Afghanistan, Scotty does nothing, writes Michelle Pini.,15421
    In an op-ed in The New Daily, Anthony Albanese says the leadership requires action, not a do-nothing blame-shifter.
    Infectious disease experts Mike Toole, Brendan Crabb and Suman Majumdar argue why our COVID ambition must remain close to zero cases, even as we climb to high vaccination levels.
    The SMH reveals that almost 90,000 extra trips were taken on Sydney’s public transport on Wednesday compared to the same time last month, despite pleas for people to stay home as cases continue to climb one week before the lockdown is scheduled to end.
    And experts have warned pandemic fatigue may be setting in as mobility data shows movement at its highest levels during lockdown this year, days before a surge in new COVID cases.
    Brad Hazzard will sign a public health order in the coming days requiring compulsory vaccination after reaching an agreement with the state’s peak medical groups representing hundreds of thousands of workers.
    Caitlin Fitzsimmons tells us that new businesses in NSW are ineligible to receive targeted lockdown assistance if they don’t have any revenue history.
    The SMH editorial chimes in, saying financial assistance for NSW businesses and individuals still has some big gaps and payments are too slow.
    Victoria’s Premier insists Melbourne’s strict lockdown will get COVID-19 cases back to zero, but delta makes this year look very different to last year, says Jennifer Hewett.
    The Australian reckons it’s got the rundown on Berejiklian’s “roadmap to freedom”.
    Alan Kohler says that modern conservatism offers few answers for a pandemic.
    “Countries can cut themselves off from the world if they want to. They can remain in permanent lockdown and prioritise public health over every other form of endeavour. In effect they are creating hermit economies, isolated from the rest of the world – and they are condemning themselves to eventual poverty”, writes the London Daily Telegraph’s Matthew Lynn.
    Should we give up on COVID-zero? Until most of us are vaccinated, we can’t live with the virus, posits Professor Hassan Vally.
    Health experts warn the country may have to come to terms with living with the virus earlier than expected, as the mental health and economic costs of long lockdowns bite. But leading epidemiologists have stopped short of advocating an immediate exit from lockdowns when 80 per cent of eligible Australians have been vaccinated, with most arguing a reduction in cases will be needed first, say the AFR’s Patrick Durkin and Finbar O’Mallon.
    Economist Andrew Charlton predicts that we can expect a big summer bounce-back from our locked-down economy.
    Michael Pascoe writes that there is a bleak outlook for housing construction but infrastructure is set to soar.
    Henrietta Cook says that life insurance companies are weighing up discounts on premiums for customers who are vaccinated against COVID-19, while health insurers are offering reward points to those who have received the jab.
    The Morrison government wants to keep its own taxpayer-funded legal costs from the robodebt scandal secret despite no longer facing court action over the program, writes Luke Henriques-Gomes. They have no shame!

    Former NSW Auditor-General, Tony Harris, really has a go at the government’s lack of truth when it comes to its push to privatise the railway’s network, rolling stock and real estate.
    Election strategists will tell you that promising roads and train lines gives political parties the best chance on polling day, but Victorian voters should be wary, says Annika Smethurst.
    ‘Too little, too late’ is one of the Morrison Government’s defining characteristics, writes Abul Rizvi on its Afghanistan failures.
    Michelle Grattan says Scott Morrison’s Afghanistan response needs a boost in its compassion quotient.
    The editorial in The Age argues that our history shows we can do more for refugees.
    “Does Afghanistan pose a terror threat to Australia?”, asks Clive Williams.
    The American War Machine is big and brassy. Sound and light, chest-thumping, shock and awe. It is an extension of the American psyche. Bruce Haigh writes about its failure.
    Kate McClymont writes that controversial neurosurgeon Charlie Teo faces an anxious wait after appearing before a special hearing of the NSW Medical Council. Hearings before the “immediate action panel” are convened when allegations against a practitioner are of such seriousness that the health and safety of the public might be at risk.
    Uber drivers were involved in more than 500 serious incidents over 18 months including sexual assaults and crashes that put people in hospital, but the ridesharing giant failed to tell the regulator despite a legal requirement, writes Nick Bonyhady.
    Annika Smethurst tells us that the Greens will use the return of Barnaby Joyce to try and convince more progressive Liberal voters to reject the Coalition in one of the party’s most prized seats. With a federal election due before July, the Greens will make a bold pitch for the Melbourne seat of Higgins announcing NGO consultant Sonya Semmens as its candidate to take on Liberal MP Dr Katie Allen.
    It appears management experts Boston Consulting have managed to burn off millions in tax by paying large whacks to “consultants”, possibly themselves. Luke Stacey investigates how the US consultants have been trying to trick the Tax Office.
    Amid the constant drumbeat of news ranging from bad to catastrophic, Labor’s decision to implement the Turnbull-Morrison stage three tax cuts attracted only momentary attention, writes John Quiggin who says Labor is set to lose its progressive identity with small-target policies,15419
    Zoe Samios and Lisa Visentin report that Eric Abetz has asked the Auditor-General to examine the ABC’s decision to pay the defamation costs of star reporter Louise Milligan after she was sued by Federal Liberal MP Andrew Laming over a series of tweets alleging he had taken an “upskirting” photo of a woman.
    The Morrison Government is committed to reducing red tape. Charities have more work than ever to do during this time of pandemic. The Senate is being asked to disallow a new regulation which would impact unduly on all charities, making them liable to deregistration should any of their members or volunteers commit a simple offence. Gary Johns the ACNC Commissioner has not sought the regulation; Michael Sukkar, the Assistant Treasurer cannot explain the need for it; and Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells cannot understand its scope, writes a concerned Frank Brennan.
    Nick O’Malley tells us that a top US official has said it would be “helpful” if Australia increased its emission-reduction goals in the lead-up to crucial United Nations climate talks in Glasgow in November.
    Origin Energy plans to turn off units at its coal-fired power station for extended periods in a bid to keep its generation business profitable amid surge of renewables, reports Angela Macdonald-Smith.
    “Why is life on Earth still taking second place to fossil fuel companies?”, wonders George Monbiot.
    Matthew Knott writes that the honeymoon is over for Biden as his Kabul excuses fail to convince.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    Andrew Dyson

    David Rowe

    Matt Golding

    Cathy Wilcox

    John Shakespeare

    Mark David

    Peter Broelman

    Glen Le Lievre

    Simon Letch

    Mark Knight catch up


    From the US

  10. The US has announced booster doses on recipient’s 8month anniversary commencing Sept 15.
    WHO don’t agree & believe vaccine supplies should go to unvaccinated countries first, they believe this will reduce chances of more virulent strains
    The US say “grow the pie”.. ramp up production.

  11. We know where Joshie comes from. Gladys must be pleased at this support from the top.

    · 12h
    ⁦@JoshFrydenberg⁩ tells ⁦@leighsales⁩ that when Australia gets to 70% vaccination rate there should be “no expectation” by states/territories to emergency COVID support payments for employees affected by lockdowns. “We need to learn to live with COVID”, he says.

  12. ‘We need to learn to live with Covid’, appears to be the new line out of the Coalition.
    What about the other side of that coin?

    We need to learn to accept deaths and long term illness in our families from Covid.

  13. NSW under Gladys’ lack of leadership will soon become the ‘pariah’ state, having refused to follow the lead set in other states.
    Gladys and the TV Club continue to proclaim targets which are unachievable with, and under, the current strategies in place.
    Gladys and the gang in NSW, at some stage will be needed to be saved from their own duplicity.
    The entire nation is threatened by the NSW Premier and her thrashing about in the confusion Gladys has created.
    Morrison is refusing to acknowledge the dilemma, hiding in his political cupboard, eyes, closed, hoping NSW disappears.
    What a bloody squib!
    It may well be that the much maligned Federation is the only road available to save Gladys’ Sydney and NSW from itself. The daily self-flagellation together with the floundering in a sea of falseness is inciting the citizens of NSW, leading to despair, risk taking and law breaking.
    Intervention is needed from outside NSW!

  14. Morning all

    Thank you BK for todays news.

    Morrison was interviewed on ACA last night.

    The interview wasnt conducted by Tracy Grimshaw, but someone else whose name escapes me. Deb?

    Anyhoo talk about giving him a platform to spew his usual verbal diarrhoea.
    Bring back Tracy!

    I managed to get through it.

    The next segment was about Melbourne and the milestone of 200 days of lockdown since the pandemic started.
    I couldn’t get through that one.

    NSW is on the brink, but by all means let’s focus on Melbourne and Victoria.

    And mind you this is after being reported all day yesterday that somehow Victoria’s economy is holding up really well compared to elsewhere. In particular, NSW.

  15. The media were pathetic in 2020 and continue to be pathetic in 2021.

    The NSW situation and comparison to Victoria is beyond question now.

  16. Morning all. Thanks BK. Scomo and Gladys have had another shocker week, but I see no change in policy on the horizon.

    William I was the person who took a Morgan survey back before the covid lockdown started. It was very long; annoyingly so. The interviewer said it would take 20 minutes but it was closer to an hour and over 50 questions so annoyingly intrusive. Had I known the truth I would not have agreed, and only completed it to get to the political questions. As you suggested it made me wonder if its far too long length biased results. I suspect many people who are time-poor would not complete it.

  17. Victoria says:
    Friday, August 20, 2021 at 8:02 am

    The media were pathetic in 2020 and continue to be pathetic in 2021.

    The NSW situation and comparison to Victoria is beyond question now.

    Considering Leigh Sales’ behavior at a Denial Andrews Press conference why is she still presenting 7.30?

  18. The 2 Trump clones Federal and NSW lib/nats need to be punish come election day.

    Economy over Health gives no extra advantage to the economy , then the safe and better option Health of over Economy

  19. Hearing Melb numbers not great today but not more than 60. As per what was said publicly yday.

    Same reason for higher number – people doing Day 13 test in iso.

    Not such good news.. among new outbreaks – lower ratio of people in iso than yday.

  20. Frednk

    Many journos have been exposed. Leigh sales is one of them.

    Meanwhile we have our media focused on the playgrounds. Ffs. It is beyond ridiculous.

    I said it countless times now. The media have made this pandemic so much harder.

  21. Host Natalie Barr:

    There is talk of unhappiness in the government, there is talk of contingency planning on who will lead the state if she steps down. Are you in the running?


    You know, if Gladys Berejiklian goes, I will chase her to bring her back.

    She has led us with power and intellect, and that is what we need at the moment.

    I think that any suggestion that there will be movement at the top is fanciful given that she has shown her metal in this response.

    Barf !

  22. OH getting second shot today. I had to postpone my second jab due to having had surgery this week.
    I need to wait three weeks now.

  23. Victoria

    Let alone the endless stories about mental health!

    Yes, there will be mental health issues in a pandemic. Yes, it’s good to be aware of these issues.

    But there are also good news stories out there – businesses which are doing well, people who have used lockdowns in positive ways (my son’s girlfriend used the lockdown to get back into study and change careers) — and you’d think that highlighting some of these would be a good idea if people are feeling down.

    Instead, you get the impression that if people aren’t suffering from mental health issues, they should be.

  24. Sceptic

    The response to the outbreak in June by Gladys and co is a monumental policy failure.

    Comparing it to anything that occurred a year or more ago is ridiculous.

    Gladys and co had all the information in front of them and experience of the past 18 months including the delta variant.
    No excuses.
    The fact that this is the path they chose is a disgrace.

    We continue to pay for it here in Victoria, and elsewhere.

    Thanks for nothing Gladdy.

  25. Afghanistan … the modern Crusade..

    Ghost Wars: How Reagan Armed the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan.. Steve Coll 2004

    JUAN GONZALEZ: Steve, I’d like to ask you, to what degree was the US policy in supporting the Mujahadeen, or its policy in Pakistan an aberration and to what degree was it a continuation of policy in the Middle East. I don’t know if you have read the book by Tariq Ali, The Clash of Fundamentalisms where he posits that this has been a historical pattern in the Middle East, that the British and United States have supported right wing or religious or — or organizations and groups covertly or sometimes overtly to stop modernist governments such as Nasser in Egypt or Gandhi in India as well as a leftist oriented governments in the region. Has this been a historical pattern?

    STEVE COLL: Yes. I think there is a pattern of that kind. It’s not comprehensive, but it’s certainly prevalent through the history that you refer to. In the Cold War period, I think there was a real belief, certainly by Bill Casey, who was a devout catholic and by the Saudi royal family, that the support of religious networks and organizations against soviet supported either communist or leftist governments was not only good tactics, but it was also righteous.

  26. Vic,
    I’ve been on the slow roll to my second AZ jab. Not due until 1st of September. I’m still here and uncovided, so that’s okay. 🙂

  27. All I’ve seen around me are positive signs of mental health improvement, as people were given the opportunity to get off the hamster wheel and get a dog and enjoy the downtime during some amazing Sydney weather.

  28. Zoomster

    We have a real time comparison between NSW and Victoria right now.
    Considering the dumpster fire NSW have created, they are getting less pushback than Victoria. Go frickin figure.

    The only thing the media cant do is actually blame Victoria for the outbreak itself.

    Therefore it is the fault of Victoria that the playgrounds are closed, that we have another lockdown, schools closed etc etc. And the mental health of people are being impacted.

    Our media is shit.

  29. Yes. That needs to be the focus.

    (We’ve been here before. We always get an increase in cases as primary contacts reach the end of 14 days in iso. They’re not the problem. New clusters are being seeded. That’s what we need to get on top of in the next 2 weeks with high testing numbers.)

  30. NSW hasn’t actually locked the playgrounds up but basketball hoops have been removed from the backboards, lights at night have been turned off and seating has been covered in tape. You can still stand and watch your kid go down the slippery dip or push them on a swing though. Maybe that’s the light touch that Victoria needs?

    Just as long as it doesn’t encourage people to congregate.

  31. Oh what a wonderful treasurer we have.

    “We have made clear that they need to take the lockdown seriously.”

    @JoshFrydenberg tells @mjrowland68 the NSW government need to take the necessary action in order to suppress the virus in the state.

  32. I am not sure taking a short cut through the same graveyard (or Rest Park, as they call it) at the crack of dawn to get coffee every day is ideal.

  33. Victoria

    Glad you got your procedure. When you look at NSW and their cancelling elective surgery you should get what you need done while you can. Then get jab 2 as soon as permissable. I get my AZ jab 2 next Tuesday. It will be a good feeling to get it finished.

  34. Not quite at “officially denied” status. But getting there!

    Rumours Berejiklian may step down are ‘fanciful’, NSW police minister says
    So there has been a rumour floating around in the past few days that preparations and contingency plans might be being made in case the NSW premier, Gladys Berejiklian, gets the boot. (You know, with the record high case numbers and whatnot.)

    But NSW police minister David Elliot has flatly denied that there is any truth to these stories while speaking with Sunrise this morning.

  35. C@t

    Making playgrounds off limits was the right thing to do.
    They were being used as proxy meeting places for groups of people to congregate.

    Now people will have to settle for walking through parks. Riding bikes etc. No milling around play equipment, sitting around drinking etc.

  36. Ingrid M
    big living with covid push being ramped up by the Coalition today. Frydenberg just chanted living with covid three times to wrap an interview on RN.

  37. Victoria @ #41 Friday, August 20th, 2021 – 8:33 am


    Making playgrounds off limits was the right thing to do.
    They were being used as proxy meeting places for groups of people to congregate.

    Now people will have to settle for walking through parks. Riding bikes etc. No milling around play equipment, sitting around drinking etc.

    I’d agree, particularly now it’s established that children are a vector for Delta. Prior to the rule change the local playground was packed with kids, clearing spanning many families with Adults grouping and chatting. I think lockdown fatigue fed into that behaviour.

  38. This is what we’re looking at if we just let it go:

    There has also been shock at the devastation being wrought by the Delta variant on younger patients.

    “It’s between the ages of 25 and 40, so it’s really young patients that are dying right now,” said David De La Zerda, the manager of ICU at Florida’s largest hospital, Jackson Memorial Hospital.

    “I never saw in my life so many deaths that I saw in the past year. It’s just unbelievable.

    “In about 36 hours, we had 80 new patients in the ICU, which is pretty dramatic.

    “All of them are COVID [patients]. We don’t have anybody with non-COVID anymore in our ICU, so that tells you how bad it is.

    “And [they are] very young, really young patients [who] are also dying … so it’s been pretty tough, the last 24 hours.”

    Dr De La Zerda said almost all his patients had one thing in common.

    “Five per cent of our patients are vaccinated, and 95 per cent are unvaccinated,” he said.

    “Florida is seeing some of the most dramatic increases in cases, we’re seeing hospitals that are full, which means not only can they not care for all of the patients with COVID, but someone with chest pain and [who] may be having a heart attack or someone who breaks a hip may not have space in that hospital to be taken care of.

    “And that is absolutely tragic.”

  39. The playground nonsense is just the latest get Dan distraction…During the SA lockdowns all the playgrounds were taped up and signposted as closed….no drama then, but of course we have a Lib Govt.

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