Essential Research, JWS Research and more

Election timing, electoral law reform, preselections and yet more COVID-19 polling.

Two bits of polling news to report, neither of which are from Resolve Strategic, which had hitherto been appearing in the Age/Herald on the third Wednesday of each month. That leaves:

• Essential Research’s fortnightly report does not include the monthly leadership ratings, which are the series’ main point of interest outside of its quarterly dump of voting intention numbers. However, it does feature the regular ratings on governments’ COVID-19 responses, which finds the federal government’s good rating up three from its nadir a fortnight ago to 41% and its bad rating steady on 35%. The New South Wales government’s good rating is at a new low of 42%, which is down five on a fortnight ago and compares with 69% eight weeks ago. Victoria’s is up two to 56% and Queensland’s is up six to 66%; from their particularly small sample sizes, Western Australia is up five to 87% and South Australia is down five to 68%. The poll also finds 75% support and only 10% opposition to mandatory vaccinations, with no distinctions to speak of by party support. Also featured are further questions on COVID-19 that tend to the personal rather than the political, and questions prompted by the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report last week. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

• JWS Research has released its occasional True Issues survey, in which the federal government’s performance index score (by which 50% would indicate an even balance of positive and negative responses) is down six points since February to 52%. Fifty-seven per cent now rate Australia’s COVID-19 response as very good or good in comparison with the rest of the world, down from 79%. For the federal government specifically, the drop is from 56% to 38%; for state governments in aggregate, it’s down from 64% to 53%. A question on issue salience, in which respondents were asked to list three issues of particular importance, finds “hospitals, health care and ageing” reigning supreme on 59%, up from 45% in February, with economy and finances a distant second on an abnormally low 21%.

Other news:

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review on “a school of thought that it would be better to not wait for another budget and go in March instead”:

Waiting until May and launching an election campaign with a budget that would be a sea of red ink does not have the same appeal as 2019, when the budget predicted a return to surplus and contained generous tax cuts. The March theory is based on the hope that there is some semblance of normality in society following the Christmas break, due to vaccination levels being high enough and nobody in hard lockdown.

• Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland law department pokes many a hole in the government’s legislation whose intention is to give the existing major parties dibs on the words Liberal and Labor, and notes the proposed hike in the minimum membership requirement for party registration from 500 to 1500 is rough on regionally focused parties but little obstacle to parties formed by “wealthy interests”.

• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports the Liberal preselection for Casey, which will be vacated with Tony Smith’s retirement, has attracted a field of six: Roshena Campbell, barrister, Melbourne councillor and wife of Herald Sun journalist James Campbell; Grant Hutchison, managing partner of local law firm Hutchinson Legal; Aaron Violi, former staffer to Senator James Patterson and current executive with a company that provides online ordering services to restaurants; Andrew Asten, principal of Boston Consulting Group and former ministerial chief-of-staff to Alan Tudge; Donalea Patman, founder of For the Love of Wildlife, which campaigns against hunting in Africa; and Ranjana Srivastava, an oncologist. The report relates that Campbell and Violi are aligned with state Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien and party president Robert Clark, while Hutchison and Asten are in the rival Josh Frydenberg/Michael Sukkar camp.

• Charlie Peel of The Australian reports there are three candidates for Liberal National Party preselection to succeed George Christensen in Dawson: Whitsunday mayor Andrew Wilcox, former Mackay councillor Chris Bonanno and “the relatively unknown Chas Pasquale”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,297 comments on “Essential Research, JWS Research and more”

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  1. From up here in Queensland, the controversy over playgrounds being closed seems rather odd. We routinely close them all during every lockdown, no matter the length, and there hasn’t been a peep about it.

  2. boerwar

    When the plane flights land back here we will also soon see Operation Sovereign PhotoOp swing into action. There will be camera tripods on the ground.

  3. I see the China wars have started early today. All we need now are the Player One versus everybody else and the Greens versus Labor wars and the day will be complete. I can’t wait.

  5. Asha says:
    Wednesday, August 18, 2021 at 10:38 am
    From up here in Queensland, the controversy over playgrounds being closed seems rather odd. We routinely close them all during every lockdown, no matter the length, and there hasn’t been a peep about it.
    ———————-
    It’s the best Murdoch has to run with at the moment…. There was a screaming headline on the Herald Sun that I saw at the grocer’s just now, about poor mistreated Victoria police officers pleading not to be enlisted as Dan’s “playground bullies”. Meanwhile in NSW….

  6. The Sirius Report
    @thesiriusreport
    US has frozen Afghanistan’s national reserves in US banks to prevent Taliban from accessing them

    The crassly stupid and incompetent just never learn
    —————————————–

    Yes that’s going to help USA.

  8. Bystander says:
    Wednesday, August 18, 2021 at 10:41 am
    I see the China wars have started early today. All we need now are the Player One versus everybody else and the Greens versus Labor wars and the day will be complete. I can’t wait.
    ———-
    Surely there’s room for a spate of vintage Rudd-Gillard warring as well. It feels like ages since the last skirmish on that front

  10. Hearing that contact tracing very difficult in NSW when mobile links are unreliable.

    Remember when telephone service was considered a priority in emergencies?

  13. We seem to have a good spread of the moaning myrtles who whinge about what others find interesting topics, but never make an interesting enough comment or raise a topic that might divert the blog to other matters.

  17. Dandy Murray @ #109 Wednesday, August 18th, 2021 – 10:48 am

    So when you all here about Twiggy Forest espousing the virtue of “Green Hydrogen”, just be aware that he has moved to trademark the term:

    https://search.ipaustralia.gov.au/trademarks/search/quick/result?q=green+hydrogen

    *Shakes head in disbelief*

    It looks like an application to trademark the term “Green Hydrogen” was not accepted, so at least some sanity has prevailed. The closest he got was “Fortescue Green Hydrogen” or “FFI Green Hydrogen”

  21. Please Nose will be spouting the same old shit shortly. Over 450 cases a day and all the MSM go on about is a few temporary playground closures in VIC.

  23. max @ #NaN Wednesday, August 18th, 2021 – 10:44 am

    Asha says:
    Wednesday, August 18, 2021 at 10:38 am
    From up here in Queensland, the controversy over playgrounds being closed seems rather odd. We routinely close them all during every lockdown, no matter the length, and there hasn’t been a peep about it.
    ———————-
    It’s the best Murdoch has to run with at the moment…. There was a screaming headline on the Herald Sun that I saw at the grocer’s just now, about poor mistreated Victoria police officers pleading not to be enlisted as Dan’s “playground bullies”. Meanwhile in NSW….

    The Police are ordering the basketball hoops to be removed from the backboards and the lights in the parks to be turned off at night.

  27. ACT playgrounds are closed. This is difficult for daughter and SIL whose 4yo loves any playground and is currently a bit restless at home. However they understand the reasons and are abiding strictly by the lockdown including the one hour per day limit on going outside the home. Kite flying is one exercise at the moment. The good weather is also helping.

  34. NSW Health
    @NSWHealth
    ·
    2m
    Ninety-four cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period and 30 were in isolation for part of their infectious period. Sixty-two cases were infectious in the community, and the isolation status of 447 cases remains under investigation.

  37. Public Citizen
    @Public_Citizen
    ·
    11h
    Defense stocks during the Afghanistan War:

    Lockheed Martin: 1,236% return
    Northrop Grumman: 1,196% return
    Boeing: 975% return
    General Dynamics: 625% return
    Raytheon: 331% return

    The military-industrial complex got exactly what it wanted out of this war.

  40. Bystander says:
    Wednesday, August 18, 2021 at 10:41 am
    I see the China wars have started early today. All we need now are the Player One versus everybody else and the Greens versus Labor wars and the day will be complete. I can’t wait.
    ———-
    Surely there’s room for a spate of vintage Rudd-Gillard warring as well. It feels like ages since the last skirmish on that front

    For variety, we could dust off the newer one that does its rounds from time to time: the ‘wokeness’ debate.

  44. Or we could roll out a campaign to see which pathetic Bludger whingers can whinge the best.
    There is plenty of competition in that sphere this morning.

  46. Lucy Cormack
    @LucyCormack
    ·
    7m
    550 of today’s 633 cases are young people in south west/western Sydney. Three deaths also recorded overnight.

    Morrison and Hunt should just go !

  47. ”
    Zerlosays:
    Wednesday, August 18, 2021 at 11:02 am

    ”

    It is ridiculous but this Press conference daily has become a must watch program on TV.

  48. I must say I feel for Kerry Chant as well- and all people in NSW at the moment. Vaccination should help in the mediun/longer term but it looks like a rocky road. If this doesn’t put an end to the absurd complaints about the Victorian lockdown nothing will.

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