Essential Research, JWS Research and more

Election timing, electoral law reform, preselections and yet more COVID-19 polling.

Two bits of polling news to report, neither of which are from Resolve Strategic, which had hitherto been appearing in the Age/Herald on the third Wednesday of each month. That leaves:

• Essential Research’s fortnightly report does not include the monthly leadership ratings, which are the series’ main point of interest outside of its quarterly dump of voting intention numbers. However, it does feature the regular ratings on governments’ COVID-19 responses, which finds the federal government’s good rating up three from its nadir a fortnight ago to 41% and its bad rating steady on 35%. The New South Wales government’s good rating is at a new low of 42%, which is down five on a fortnight ago and compares with 69% eight weeks ago. Victoria’s is up two to 56% and Queensland’s is up six to 66%; from their particularly small sample sizes, Western Australia is up five to 87% and South Australia is down five to 68%. The poll also finds 75% support and only 10% opposition to mandatory vaccinations, with no distinctions to speak of by party support. Also featured are further questions on COVID-19 that tend to the personal rather than the political, and questions prompted by the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report last week. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

• JWS Research has released its occasional True Issues survey, in which the federal government’s performance index score (by which 50% would indicate an even balance of positive and negative responses) is down six points since February to 52%. Fifty-seven per cent now rate Australia’s COVID-19 response as very good or good in comparison with the rest of the world, down from 79%. For the federal government specifically, the drop is from 56% to 38%; for state governments in aggregate, it’s down from 64% to 53%. A question on issue salience, in which respondents were asked to list three issues of particular importance, finds “hospitals, health care and ageing” reigning supreme on 59%, up from 45% in February, with economy and finances a distant second on an abnormally low 21%.

Other news:

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review on “a school of thought that it would be better to not wait for another budget and go in March instead”:

Waiting until May and launching an election campaign with a budget that would be a sea of red ink does not have the same appeal as 2019, when the budget predicted a return to surplus and contained generous tax cuts. The March theory is based on the hope that there is some semblance of normality in society following the Christmas break, due to vaccination levels being high enough and nobody in hard lockdown.

• Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland law department pokes many a hole in the government’s legislation whose intention is to give the existing major parties dibs on the words Liberal and Labor, and notes the proposed hike in the minimum membership requirement for party registration from 500 to 1500 is rough on regionally focused parties but little obstacle to parties formed by “wealthy interests”.

• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports the Liberal preselection for Casey, which will be vacated with Tony Smith’s retirement, has attracted a field of six: Roshena Campbell, barrister, Melbourne councillor and wife of Herald Sun journalist James Campbell; Grant Hutchison, managing partner of local law firm Hutchinson Legal; Aaron Violi, former staffer to Senator James Patterson and current executive with a company that provides online ordering services to restaurants; Andrew Asten, principal of Boston Consulting Group and former ministerial chief-of-staff to Alan Tudge; Donalea Patman, founder of For the Love of Wildlife, which campaigns against hunting in Africa; and Ranjana Srivastava, an oncologist. The report relates that Campbell and Violi are aligned with state Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien and party president Robert Clark, while Hutchison and Asten are in the rival Josh Frydenberg/Michael Sukkar camp.

• Charlie Peel of The Australian reports there are three candidates for Liberal National Party preselection to succeed George Christensen in Dawson: Whitsunday mayor Andrew Wilcox, former Mackay councillor Chris Bonanno and “the relatively unknown Chas Pasquale”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,297 comments on “Essential Research, JWS Research and more”

Comments Page 24 of 26
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  7. Shellbell says:
    Thursday, August 19, 2021 at 6:39 pm
    One of the more spectacular Medical Council hearings with QAnon

    Brilliant
    “McGregor’s deregistration was granted by NCAT on Wednesday after a hearing in which the doctor’s own assessing psychiatrist testified McGregor was paranoid. “

  8. ”
    Douglas and Milkosays:
    Thursday, August 19, 2021 at 5:37 pm
    ….…
    If Morrison is re-elected he will use the next three years to finally destroy the University research…
    sector in Australia.

    The tradies may love it, but they probably benefit far more from the research than they know. Also do tradies never think that some of their kids might like to go to University? And shudder, do a PhD and work on research?
    ”

    By that time he may not be PM. 🙂

  9. Griff @ #1155 Thursday, August 19th, 2021 – 6:47 pm

    Flaneur @ Thursday, August 19, 2021 at 6:22 pm

    Maybe it’s all part of a great big ineffable plan.

    Indeed, one (can’t) “start thinking: it can’t be a great cosmic game of chess, it has to be just very complicated Solitaire.”

    Yet, Sean Lock is still dead. First world problems, I guess. 🙂

  10. The Therapeutic Goods Administration has approved AstraZeneca’s submission to change the name of its COVID-19 vaccine in line with it’s called in Europe and Canada.

    Vaxzevria, if you can pronounce that.

  11. Shellbell

    Conservatives’ propensity toward conspiracy thinking can be explained by a distrust in officials and paranoid thinking.
    Four large studies among U.S. adults found consistent evidence that conservatives are more likely than liberals to endorse conspiracy thinking. This effect was explained by a distrust in officials and paranoid tendencies. The findings were published in Political Psychology.

    https://www.psypost.org/2020/11/conservatives-propensity-toward-conspiracy-thinking-can-be-explained-by-a-distrust-in-officials-and-paranoid-thinking-58459

    Then we have.. Tom Cruse .. Scientology & paranoia?

  12. ”
    Scepticsays:
    Thursday, August 19, 2021 at 7:00 pm
    Shellbell

    Conservatives’ propensity toward conspiracy thinking can be explained by a distrust in officials and paranoid thinking.
    Four large studies among U.S. adults found consistent evidence that conservatives are more likely than liberals to endorse conspiracy thinking. This effect was explained by a distrust in officials and paranoid tendencies. The findings were published in Political Psychology.

    https://www.psypost.org/2020/11/conservatives-propensity-toward-conspiracy-thinking-can-be-explained-by-a-distrust-in-officials-and-paranoid-thinking-58459

    Then we have.. Tom Cruse .. Scientology & paranoia?
    ”

    Trump used/uses ” distrust in officials and paranoid tendencies” to devastating effect to become POTUS and for personal gain after that.

  13. From reports of the situation in Israel it appears that boosters will be necessary any time from 6 months after first vacc.

    Has anyone any confidence that Morrison / Hunt are preparing for this? I haven’t.

  14. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, August 19, 2021 at 5:11 pm

    No, no and not on your nelly. I have skin in this game and it involves my son who has wanted to get his fiance over here from Britain sometime this year so she could see if she liked Australia enough to emigrate here and likely she would, but that’s all been put on hold now for god knows how long because Oakeshott Country and his political mistress have screwed things up royally. Not to mention my other son who is cooling his heels in Spain and would really like to come home for a visit but is at the back of Morrison’s far queue.
    ________________
    Has to be up there with one of the most pathetic posts i have ever read on PB.

  17. We can now safely restart the AZ Pfizer wars.

    A rise in vaccinated people becoming infected with coronavirus has cast doubt over the lasting efficacy of Covid-19 vaccines, according to new studies, including one that found protection gained from the BioNTech/Pfizer shot declined more rapidly than that from the AstraZeneca jab.

    An Oxford university study published on Thursday found that the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine against symptomatic infection almost halved after four months, and that vaccinated people infected with the more infectious Delta variant had as high viral loads as the unvaccinated.

    https://www.ft.com/content/49641651-e10a-45f6-a7cc-8b8c7b7a9710

    Edit
    Is that a cliff or is that a cliff?

  18. The deck is stacked against Teo.

    The Panel will have been carefully selected by the Medical Council board which one might reasonably suggest may not be replete with Teo acolytes.

    Having argued against this arrangement before every level of court with zero success, I can tell you the Panel will probably have something close to riding instructions on how to deal with him.

    With no rules of evidence and no right of legal representation, short of Teo begging for mercy, it could be a bit hot.

  19. Sceptic
    We need to develop policy based on the facts. Since the policy outcomes are life and death Morrison, Hunt, Berejiklian and Hazzard need to be clear about facts, the advice generated on the facts and the way in which they have applied the advice.
    Waiting, waiting, waiting…

  20. Taylormade @ #531 Thursday, August 19th, 2021 – 7:12 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, August 19, 2021 at 5:11 pm

    ________________
    Has to be up there with one of the most pathetic posts i have ever read on PB.

    Only to be outdone by your most recent post trying to villify a Labor MP who has left her electorate in Melbourne to look after her husband suffering from Melanoma.

  21. Shellbell @ #535 Thursday, August 19th, 2021 – 7:21 pm

    The deck is stacked against Teo.

    The Panel will have been carefully selected by the Medical Council board which one might reasonably suggest may not be replete with Teo acolytes.

    Having argued against this arrangement before every level of court with zero success, I can tell you the Panel will probably have something close to riding instructions on how to deal with him.

    With no rules of evidence and no right of legal representation, short of Teo begging for mercy, it could be a bit hot.

    Hasn’t Charlie Teo said before that if he is deregistered in Australia, he will just relocate overseas?

  24. Shellbell,

    Agree. Teo has fought his corner for years against the usual entrenched interests. So, I hope he sticks it right up them!

  28. [‘Under section 150 of the Health Practitioner Regulation National Law Act, the Medical Council can act to either suspend or impose restrictions on a doctor’s registration to protect the public while a full investigation is undertaken by the Health Care Complaints Commission (HCCC).

    The council has not disclosed any details regarding the complaint against Dr Teo, 63.

    A previous Herald investigation revealed that 14 neurosurgeons and related specialists interviewed by the paper raised serious questions about De Teo’s judgment, narcissistic behaviour, charging financially stressed people exorbitant fees when some surgeries could be done for free in a public hospital, blaming others for keeping him from public hospitals when it is Dr Teo himself who has refused to operate in the public system, bad-mouthing his colleagues and inappropriate conduct in the operating theatre.

    “It’s my dream that you would suck my dick while I’m doing this operation. That’s a direct quote,” said one of his colleagues about Dr Teo’s comments to a nurse during surgery.

    Another said theatre staff and doctors constantly had to put up with Dr Teo talking inappropriately about sex during operations. “I remember once something fell down and a nurse went to pick it up and he said while you’re down there dot-dot-dot.”]

    If these allegations are true, what does it take to strike
    a surgeon off? A period of suspension or supervision does not really match the alleged professional impropriety. I can understand a proctologist, for example, feeling on a Monday that I’ve seen enough arseholes to last me a lifetime, but for a neurosurgeon to allegedly goes off the rails, the stakes are raised. Then again, apart from his peccadilloes, he could be proficient at his job.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/controversial-brain-surgeon-charlie-teo-faces-uncertain-future-20210819-p58kah.html

  31. Josh:millions of dollars are going out the door, mostly to people who won’t donate to the Liberals, mostly to people who don’t live in marginal electorates and much of it to people would never vote for us.

  32. “And NSW had been doing an excellent job with track and trace”.

    And all track and trace systems are inherently fragile. Once the numbers go up and the delays go up, its a feedback loop without end. That plus NSW failed to adapt to Delta, despite having months of warning.

  33. ‘Mavis says:
    Thursday, August 19, 2021 at 7:31 pm

    …
    Then again, apart from his peccadilloes, he could be proficient at his job. ‘
    ___________________________________________
    The complaints do not seem much to be about his surgical skills.

    If those comments to nurses are true then, quite separately from whatever professional travails he may face, he should also be up for sexual harassment. I have no idea at all whether they are true.

    Finally, if ‘narcissism’ were a crime used to strike off medical specialists there would very soon be a drastic shortage in almost every field.

  36. D&M

    “Also, why are Singapore doing so well?

    Better access to better vaccines?

    A better roll out?”

    All of the above. They started vaccinating in January. They used Pfizer. They’re now contemplating boosters. Plus they are reportedly aiming to open up their borders whilst maintaining the principle of “near zero” cases. In other words, they’re going to take a very slow and measured approach to opening to visitors and they’re going to keep their public health response (and masks etc)

    “If we can catch up with Singapore then things will look a lot better for us.”

    We need to catch up with them in terms of attitude and policy, not simply engage in learned helplessness and effectively give once we are past some arbitrary vaccination threshold.

  40. Sceptic

    “My pessimistic prediction is it all goes pear shaped ( because underlying it already is ) & we don’t look normal till end of December.. & given Gladys will let it rip ( in September) .. December will turn into February”

    Well, the critical day for me was when Kerry walked into the press conference and started talking about vaccination as the way out. They might as well have turned the lights out and walked off.

    So, now we’re headed to thousands of cases and Gladys is still offering to weaken restrictions. What will be interesting here is the blowback from other Premiers. I also suspect that there are still people out there who have a soft spot for Gladys and genuinely believe that she’s going to somehow, magically turn things around, soon. Those people have yet to get disillusioned and angry, but they will.

  42. lizzie

    Sales opens by talking as if 70% Vax will be the accepted time for opening up. Why has she swallowed the Gladys myth?

    As I recall, she was ideologically opposed to lockdowns from the start.

  43. Most complaints are about Teos charging large sums (if he gets fully informed financial consent that isn’t an issue) and operating when other neurosurgeons won’t as they don’t think it will help the patient.
    Lots of high risk surgeons are narcissistic.

  45. A social media comment exposes the vibe out there..

    “It is not a race”, he said. So he sent a junior official to haggle the price of Pfizer & rejected what was offered. He then made over 50 phone calls to get Cormann a job, but not 1 to Pfizer to get us the jab. He is not fit to be PM.

    @lynlinking

  46. Cud
    I also suspect that there are still people out there who have a soft spot for Gladys and genuinely believe that she’s going to somehow, magically turn things around, soon. Those people have yet to get disillusioned and angry, but they will.

    I really couldn’t watch her today.. one cbit is saw.. Gladys looked like a deer in the head lights.. vague look on her face / in her eyes.. not sure where the car was coming from.. more than one coming her way I suspect

  47. Sohar

    Wow.. “its a complete bin fire and somebody else needs to step in”

    If only the Project was paid attention to by all the lunatic Libertarians in the NSW government..

  48. My only comment about Teo, is that the NSW Medical Board do not strike people off for being media personalities or even mavericks.

    Even if they are a stuck up bunch of self-entitled pricks (not that I am saying they are – in fact I have no idea if they are or not) .

    For anyone interested, I would read the judgement very carefully.

    Any female nurse or doctor serving under a surgeon (pun intended) knows that you have to deal “gracefully” with the inappropriate jokes / innuendos (the Italian for suppository).

    Perhaps the NSW Medical Board feel that some lines have been crossed?

  50. Guardian.
    NSW Covid update: premier signals ‘exciting things to look forward to’ after record 681 new cases
    Gladys Berejiklian says freedoms will be granted in coming months to vaccinated residents as she extended lockdown across regional NSW.

    Berejiklian repeatedly refused to provide specific details of what freedoms for vaccinated people could look like from September, and said chief health officer Kerry Chant was still formulating advice. More details are expected by 28 August.

    What could possibly go wrong?….. everything ( that hasn’t already )!

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