Essential Research, JWS Research and more

Election timing, electoral law reform, preselections and yet more COVID-19 polling.

Two bits of polling news to report, neither of which are from Resolve Strategic, which had hitherto been appearing in the Age/Herald on the third Wednesday of each month. That leaves:

• Essential Research’s fortnightly report does not include the monthly leadership ratings, which are the series’ main point of interest outside of its quarterly dump of voting intention numbers. However, it does feature the regular ratings on governments’ COVID-19 responses, which finds the federal government’s good rating up three from its nadir a fortnight ago to 41% and its bad rating steady on 35%. The New South Wales government’s good rating is at a new low of 42%, which is down five on a fortnight ago and compares with 69% eight weeks ago. Victoria’s is up two to 56% and Queensland’s is up six to 66%; from their particularly small sample sizes, Western Australia is up five to 87% and South Australia is down five to 68%. The poll also finds 75% support and only 10% opposition to mandatory vaccinations, with no distinctions to speak of by party support. Also featured are further questions on COVID-19 that tend to the personal rather than the political, and questions prompted by the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report last week. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

• JWS Research has released its occasional True Issues survey, in which the federal government’s performance index score (by which 50% would indicate an even balance of positive and negative responses) is down six points since February to 52%. Fifty-seven per cent now rate Australia’s COVID-19 response as very good or good in comparison with the rest of the world, down from 79%. For the federal government specifically, the drop is from 56% to 38%; for state governments in aggregate, it’s down from 64% to 53%. A question on issue salience, in which respondents were asked to list three issues of particular importance, finds “hospitals, health care and ageing” reigning supreme on 59%, up from 45% in February, with economy and finances a distant second on an abnormally low 21%.

Other news:

• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review on “a school of thought that it would be better to not wait for another budget and go in March instead”:

Waiting until May and launching an election campaign with a budget that would be a sea of red ink does not have the same appeal as 2019, when the budget predicted a return to surplus and contained generous tax cuts. The March theory is based on the hope that there is some semblance of normality in society following the Christmas break, due to vaccination levels being high enough and nobody in hard lockdown.

• Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland law department pokes many a hole in the government’s legislation whose intention is to give the existing major parties dibs on the words Liberal and Labor, and notes the proposed hike in the minimum membership requirement for party registration from 500 to 1500 is rough on regionally focused parties but little obstacle to parties formed by “wealthy interests”.

• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports the Liberal preselection for Casey, which will be vacated with Tony Smith’s retirement, has attracted a field of six: Roshena Campbell, barrister, Melbourne councillor and wife of Herald Sun journalist James Campbell; Grant Hutchison, managing partner of local law firm Hutchinson Legal; Aaron Violi, former staffer to Senator James Patterson and current executive with a company that provides online ordering services to restaurants; Andrew Asten, principal of Boston Consulting Group and former ministerial chief-of-staff to Alan Tudge; Donalea Patman, founder of For the Love of Wildlife, which campaigns against hunting in Africa; and Ranjana Srivastava, an oncologist. The report relates that Campbell and Violi are aligned with state Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien and party president Robert Clark, while Hutchison and Asten are in the rival Josh Frydenberg/Michael Sukkar camp.

• Charlie Peel of The Australian reports there are three candidates for Liberal National Party preselection to succeed George Christensen in Dawson: Whitsunday mayor Andrew Wilcox, former Mackay councillor Chris Bonanno and “the relatively unknown Chas Pasquale”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,297 comments on “Essential Research, JWS Research and more”

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  1. Citizen,

    Our daughter is also under 40 and breast feeding but is very hesitant about being vaccinated at this time. Her OH on the other hand, opted for AZ some weeks ago. I suppose we need to leave it for them to decide after obtaining informed advice.

    Same situation with mine. Son had 1st AZ two weeks ago.

    Also, a lot depends on how close to a hospital you are if there are complications. My two are in Bondi Junction, so several major hospitals nearby.

    Otherwise I think trying to isolate and waiting for Pfizer or Moderna is a good strategy.

  2. Douglas and Milko @ #465 Thursday, August 19th, 2021 – 5:15 pm

    C@t,

    I hear you, and OC was pretty vicious to you, purely because he was embittered with Labor.

    Yes, just another Labor rat. Sorry but Liberals in the same position usually go quietly into the night. Anyone who has a beef with Labor about anything spends the rest of their waking moments sniping. I don’t go for that. No can do.

  3. Douglas and Milko @ Thursday, August 19, 2021 at 5:12 pm

    Disaster indeed. To know that you were competitive but the computer said no based on citing other people’s work, not even yours! A couple of colleagues affected. Thankfully no iron in the fire this year.

  4. Labor should be white anting SfM & helping find a crop of independent candidates to stand in Cook..
    If Howard had his arse hit by the door on the way out it can happen to Morrison.. just keep helping high profile candidates speculate on running will do the trick.

  5. D & M

    You are technically correct with fora, but it’s going the way of stadia (stadiums). I think it’s sad that we have to accept the LCD of educational racism and adapt to “visit a premise”, a criteria (shudder), and platypuses.

  7. Griff @ #1103 Thursday, August 19th, 2021 – 5:18 pm

    Douglas and Milko @ Thursday, August 19, 2021 at 5:12 pm

    Disaster indeed. To know that you were competitive but the computer said no based on citing other people’s work, not even yours! A couple of colleagues affected. Thankfully no iron in the fire this year.

    Speaking as a retired Librarian those archives are EXACTLY the type of thing bean counters like to point to to say We don’t need libraries anymore – it is all on the web. However they are not the easiest to navigate at times.

  8. lizzie @ #1105 Thursday, August 19th, 2021 – 5:21 pm

    D & M

    You are technically correct with fora, but it’s going the way of stadia (stadiums). I think it’s sad that we have to accept the LCD of educational racism and adapt to “visit a premise”, a criteria (shudder), and platypuses.

    Ahem … the correct plural for platypus is platypuses. I asked ours, and that’s what they told me.

  9. Regardless of his politics (which admittedly I don’t really know because I don’t really have that many interactions with him), I do hope OC is ok and that his absence isn’t due to something bad happening to him.

  11. Griff,

    A couple of colleagues affected. Thankfully no iron in the fire this year.

    Grrr. and the months of effort that go into those 100+ page tomes.

    ARC tracker has heard from 20 DECRAs affected, and there will be more out there.

  15. Cud Chewer @ #1070 Thursday, August 19th, 2021 – 4:31 pm

    So we’re talking about a peak in the order of 20 thousand or so cases per day. Assuming Gladys doesn’t ease restrictions. Assuming Victoria gets it under control.

    Can’t fault the logic (except maybe the base case of the current Reff of 1.4 is a touch high) but hope you’re wrong.

    I expect, as more people become fully vaccinated, some will become more vocal opponents of lockdowns. More generally, lockdown fatigue is real and growing. I’m worried about what lies ahead in the next few months.

  16. The Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists (RCOG)

    Q. Can I have a COVID-19 vaccine if I am breastfeeding?
    COVID-19 vaccines are recommended to breastfeeding women. There is no plausible mechanism by which any vaccine ingredient could pass to your baby through breast milk. You should therefore not stop breastfeeding in order to be vaccinated against COVID-19.

    https://www.rcog.org.uk/en/guidelines-research-services/coronavirus-covid-19-pregnancy-and-womens-health/covid-19-vaccines-and-pregnancy/covid-19-vaccines-pregnancy-and-breastfeeding/

  19. @PeterWMurphy1
    ·
    41m
    On @abcnews’ #AfternoonBriefing, with @PatsKarvelas, surprising to hear Morrison Govt Minister @stuartrobertmp try to claim that Australia was ‘post-Covid’. He also disagreed with numerous clear facts presented by Karvelas.

  21. laughtong

    Speaking as a retired Librarian those archives are EXACTLY the type of thing bean counters like to point to to say We don’t need libraries anymore – it is all on the web. However they are not the easiest to navigate at times.

    Yep! The bean counters have destroyed the libraries and librarians, and now they do not like the archives.

    The very specific scientific repositories such as PubMed and arXiv are easy to search, but I shudder when I have to go near the Library eJournal catalogues.

    If Morrison is re-elected he will use the next three years to finally destroy the University research sector in Australia.

    The tradies may love it, but they probably benefit far more from the research than they know. Also do tradies never think that some of their kids might like to go to University? And shudder, do a PhD and work on research?

  22. @SusanSmithAus
    ·
    43m
    Patricia Karvelas questioned the effectiveness of the covidsafe app to Stuart Robert and copped a mouthful of mansplaining

    “I don’t think you quite know how it works” he replied – about an app that simply doesn’t work

  23. Interesting comment from a friend .. a doctor that lectures @ Sydney Uni
    “I would still give Pfizer in country areas without teaching hospital treatment of clots available rapidly. So out there in Brewarrina or Walgett Pfizer is a better choice because medical facilities very very limited. but Pf immunity doesn’t last as long. Boosting in the states now cos it’s wearing off whereas AZ going strong so far. But Pfizer definitely causing cardiac side effects. So far not deaths though. But a problem none the less.”

  26. Andrew P Street
    @AndrewPStreet
    ·
    3h
    Replying to @NickFeik
    It’s worth remembering that time Scott Morrison advised that anti-Muslim sentiment would be a great thing for the LNP to capitalise upon, along with undermining Australia’s multiculturalism. Because he’s totally not deeply racist, oh no no no no no.

  27. boerwar

    If this is the release then 76 out of a normal 130 is a plane that is around half full.

    They will sell it as an amazing effort having ‘achieved’ a 300% increase in evacuees compared to the first plane. They probably slipped on board 4 translators this time. That way they can point to a 100% increase in the rate of translators being evacuated. ‘Proof’ of the high priority they give them.

  30. lizzie @ #486 Thursday, August 19th, 2021 – 5:36 pm

    @PeterWMurphy1
    ·
    41m
    On @abcnews’ #AfternoonBriefing, with @PatsKarvelas, surprising to hear Morrison Govt Minister @stuartrobertmp try to claim that Australia was ‘post-Covid’. He also disagreed with numerous clear facts presented by Karvelas.

    Wait till they get told about the latest cursory dismissal of COVID-19 the Republicans have devised.

    According to the pretender to the throne of Donald Trump, Florida Governor Ron De Santis, there’s no point doing anything because it’s ‘Covid Season’.

  32. Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, August 19, 2021 at 5:31 pm
    Astra Zeneca is rebranding.

    Surly you jest? ( I know you aren’t)
    Anyone in marketing ( dirty word ) would tell them , in this instance it points to guilt/ coverup & if you did change why that stupid name .. Vaxzevria

  36. Player One says:
    Thursday, August 19, 2021 at 6:06 pm
    Sceptic @ #1132 Thursday, August 19th, 2021 – 6:05 pm

    … in this instance it points to guilt/ coverup …
    Of what?

    No I didn’t mean to say it was guilt.. that is how it will look… its ALL to do with perception

  37. C@t
    “The Government is also currently in talks to create 80 prizes of $1 million in a weekly lotto to give to random vaccinated members of the public from November.”

  38. The dangers of “rebranding ”
    Mercedes-Benz entered the Chinese market under the brand name “Bensi,” which means “rush to die.”
    edit
    On realizing this, the company rebranded the name to Benchi, which means “running quickly as if flying

  41. The Government is also currently in talks to create 80 prizes of $1 million in a weekly lotto to give to random vaccinated members of the public from November.

    What a joke, you’re more likely to get a blood clot than win that.

  42. Looks like the vaccine is marketed [edit] under different names in different countries. Certainly adds to confusion among the general public.

    ‘Covishield’ sounds very similar to ‘Operation Covid Shield’ used by the Morrison government. Perhaps that’s why AstraZeneca chose ‘Vaxzevria’ in Australia.

    The Oxford–AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, codenamed AZD1222,[5] and sold under the brand names Covishield[19] and Vaxzevria[1][20] among others, is a viral vector vaccine for prevention of COVID-19.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford–AstraZeneca_COVID-19_vaccine

  43. No! Today I learnt that Sean Lock died, and that Terry Pratchett was once a journalist*!

    Why is the world so cruel?

    * Perhaps there was once a world where that meant something less subversive.

  46. One of Morrison’s election slogans was, given our success in suppressing COVID was ‘You wouldn’t want to be anywhere else in the World!’ – thumbs up, dopey grin, cheesy cap, journos lapping it up, rinse and repeat.

    Well the ‘You had two Jobs’ slogan – grim statistics, endless lockdown, examples of quarantine failure, botched vaccine rollout…- may outweigh the Scomotto ™ for those with the lived experience

  47. The Government is also currently in talks to create 80 prizes of $1 million in a weekly lotto to give to random vaccinated members of the public from November.

    Run by the same political party that gave you the ‘lottery of death’ for males turning 20 in the 1960’s. This was the method of conscripting people sent to fight in Vietnam. If your birthdate (day and month) was drawn from the barrel, you were a ‘lucky’ winner. I was an unwilling participant in that lottery.

  48. Like to be a fly on the wall while the Medical Council and Dr Charlie Teo go head to head in a suspension/conditions placed on licence hearing.

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