I had a piece yesterday on Campbell Newman’s break with the Liberal National Party and plans to run for the Senate in Crikey, which I believe has its paywall down for a limited time only. The upshot is that Newman’s anti-lockdown message may struggle to gain traction in a state that hasn’t had many of them; that he is unlikely to benefit the conservative cause even if he wins; and that his presence on the ballot paper could even contribute to a seat currently held by the Liberal National Party (specifically Amanda Stoker) or Pauline Hanson instead going to Labor or the Greens.
The article includes a reference to a poll conducted by Ipsos in June from a sample of 500 Queensland respondents for conservative podcast host Damian Coory, who published approval ratings for state political figures among its small sample of 173 LNP voters. Newman was credited with an approval rating of nearly 60%, substantially higher than any of his four successors as party leader, which may have encouraged him in his present course. Newman has also maintained high name recognition, with only around 20% of respondents uncommitted, compared with around 40% for Lawrence Springborg and Deb Frecklington and 60% for David Crisafulli, who replaced Frecklington after the election defeat in October.
Rightly or wrongly, some media accounts have tied Newman’s abandonment of the LNP to a crisis in the party that was laid bare by Saturday’s Stretton by-election, which delivered it an unimpressive swing of 1.6%. My live results display for the by-election continues to be updated here, if on a somewhat irregular basis. The Electoral Commission of Queensland helpfully publishes preference flows by candidate, which may be of some interest: these show that preferences of the Informed Medical Options Party broke 60-40 to the LNP, while the Greens went 82-18 to Labor and Animal Justice went 56-44.
Elsewhere, Antony Green offers his estimated new margins for the finalised federal redistribution of Victoria.
Saw yesterday’s deadwood West Australian and a report on the ‘Freedom Marches’ this morning. One thing leapt out. The article did not call them ‘protesters’ ,’marchers’ or some such, they went for the much more pejorative ‘rioters’. When even the RW rags are agin ya you have no hope.
Adjacent hotel quarantine rooms again – leaks will continue unless they keep occupied rooms separated.
”
Shellbellsays:
Tuesday, July 27, 2021 at 9:35 am
“Ven
a lockdown for only a some targeted LSAs instead of whole of Greater Sydney, which by accident are Labor held seats and where ethnic minorities live in large numbers.
Which ‘proves’ that NSW Gov is driven by politics and not by health advice, no matter what Gladys says.”
Sure. Exactly like the NSW government locked down the ALP seats in the Northern Beaches, where Mike Carlton and Kristine Keneally live at Christmas, without locking down the Liberal party seat in which the Berala cluster took hold.
”
Northern beaches was easy to isolate, they did it early and for a couple of weeks and the variant was not ‘Delta’. I can’t remember whether that lockdown was stage 3 or stage 4. Yes it was done during Christmas and New year period and very inconvenient for people living in that area. I felt for them at that time.
My point is none of the above was implemented for Eastern suburbs initially and when they did they divided King St in Newtown and that kind of peace meal approach never works.
My point has always has been that the whole of Greater Sydney treated same. I feel would feel bad if a Labor government does the same and some part of Greater Sydney are treated differently.
Even Dr. Norman Swan said on ABC News that Greater Sydney should be under stricter lockdown like the 5 LSAs because the the virus is everywhere in Sydney.
There seems to be movement in the right wing media against the anti-Vax protestors. This from 2SM this morning.
boerwar
Many points deducted though for the nasty dictators both ‘petty’ and ‘major’ they installed, often as replacements for the previous petty ones.
Ven @ #72 Tuesday, July 27th, 2021 – 7:21 am
The amazing thing is it took a directive from the Chief of the Army to say this is unacceptable.
What were the Commanders in Afghanistan thinking.
The convoluted application process is not the only issue with the NSW Covid business grants.
On 17 July, the key eligibility requirement was to “demonstrate a decline in turnover over a minimum 2-week period from 27 May 2021 to 26 July 2021.”
After announcing the construction lockdown effective 19 July, this requirement was changed to “decline in turnover experienced over a minimum 2-week period from 26 June 2021 to 17 July 2021” specifically excluding those affected by the expanded lockdown.
My son’s new business went from being eligible for a grant of $10,500 to being eligible for $0.
Thanks Gladys!
Expat
I hadn’t even realised I had the shot.
Lol!
Barney in Tanjung Bunga at 10:12 am
Dubya told us 20 years ago.
https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/09/20010916-2.html
Good Morning
@MehreenFaruqi tweets
Good morning to everyone except Scott Morrison, who’s condemned millions of people to lockdowns by failing to vaccinate us when he had the chance, and now won’t even fork out disaster payments above the poverty line.
We need JobKeeper 2.0 and increased disaster payments that everyone who’s lost work is eligible for. There’s no end in sight for the Morrison lockdown in Sydney, and that’s not going to change unless we pay people to stay home.
This could make for a good vaccine ad series here . Use real people , real patients rather than the hokey ‘gasper’ scare advert.
.
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‘I advise everyone to get it’: UK Covid patients tell of regrets over refusing jab.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/26/covid-patients-tell-of-regrets-over-refusing-jab-vaccine-intensive-care
Yes, a feeling like a bruise from a punch in the arm is accurate. 48 hours sounds about right. I also was a bit vague for the first hour or so, but nothing too bad, was still fine to drive home again.
It looks like a large wave of covid cases and lots of vaccinations have met head on in the UK and…………..
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Covid-19 news: Daily new cases in the UK fall for sixth day in a row
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-daily-new-cases-in-the-uk-fall-for-sixth-day-in-a-row/#ixzz71m0bBoDg
Bushfire Bill @ #93 Tuesday, July 27th, 2021 – 7:51 am
What? Cambodia and Laos didn’t have Communist regimes, Laos still has one.
One of the main reasons the Vietnamese reacted against Cambodia was border tensions with Cambodia seemingly having eyes on the delta region which was largely ethnic Khmer.
I think the main barrier was Thailand with a strong popular monarchy.
Springborg is the Mayor of Goondiwindi Regional Council. The Country Party up here is so conservative that in an attempt to restore its standing, it thinks that by electing “The Borg” (a twice losing LOTO) as president of the LNP (July, ’21), the glory days of Joh will be resurrected, forgetting about its dismal record in Queensland post the corrupt Bjelke-Petersen era – in power a mere 7 out of the last 34 years. At one point, in the lead up to the 2004 election, Springborg, in an attempt to improve his favourability among women, appeared in the “CM” ironing a shirt, clad only in a towel – needless to say Beattie won a 3rd term. Laurence and Dan (federally) have quite a bit in common – reasonably decent but plodders.
Bushfire Bill @– 7:51 am
Not giving up ! Those bastards ! We would won if the other side had given up. 😆
New Vic Government merchandise.
Knight in rusty armour
Five people from one household on the NSW Central Coast tested positive to coronavirus on Monday, igniting fears of potential further spread.
The positive cases, from Budgewoi, north of Sydney, resulted in 25 new exposure sites in the area.
Authorities are also worried about two close contacts who have so far tested negative, but who were living in the same household.
Meanwhile, attention is turning to the actions of one of those contacts, who visited 25 shops in five days after being ordered to isolate
Greensborough Growlersays:
Tuesday, July 27, 2021 at 10:36 am
New Vic Government merchandise.
______________________
They are producing icons now!
Recon,
And lego sets 🙂
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Holdenhillbillysays:
Tuesday, July 27, 2021 at 10:44 am
Five people from one household on the NSW Central Coast tested positive to coronavirus on Monday, igniting fears of potential further spread.
The positive cases, from Budgewoi, north of Sydney, resulted in 25 new exposure sites in the area.
Authorities are also worried about two close contacts who have so far tested negative, but who were living in the same household.
Meanwhile, attention is turning to the actions of one of those contacts, who visited 25 shops in five days after being ordered to isolate
”
Ring of Steel around Sydney looks more and more appealing with every passing day.
Ah the ol’ ‘Domino Theory” lol. Re Vietnam , I recommend everyone read “Vietnam: The 10,000 Day War” . Ho Chi Minh was on good terms with America having worked with the OSS during the war against Japan. The OSS guy described him as a nationalist first and foremost.
Following the defeat of Japan an Independence celebration parade was organised. The US representative was given pride of place , sitting next to Ho. The Brit and French chaps put in the ‘cheap seats’ . Down the gurgler it all went when the US backed the #%$#%$#!!! French when the French thought they would like to have their colonies back. Guess who that left to call on support to fight the war ?
F me BK.
After two months of high rainfall this northerly is causing havoc. Trees down everywhere – partly because trees are set for strong westerlies – not northerlies. We just lost our biggest candlebark to it. It opens up the area for more to now get hit. And will bring in a lot of sun which will probably doom the patch of ferns come summer.
Been losing one big tree every year to wind and about one every year to disease. Getting hard to keep up with the loses. We have put in (or protected/moved self sown) about 30 candlebark seedlings. About to throw in a bunch of stringy barks too. But starting to doubt the plan. Climate change is part of the problem – modelling shows stringy barks and candlebarks will struggle to hold on in the Hills. Wondering if Adelaide Hills Red Gum and manna gum or other species are a better option. They arent indigenous to this area. But the forest is fast becoming a open woodland. And the trees left will be easy prey to the wind.
Ring of Steel around Sydney looks more and more appealing with every passing day.
____
But all Gladys will do is establish a ring of alfoil!
Just for the record
@ACOSS tweeted
#auspolBad call from both Govt and Labor on tax cuts:
Ppl on $200K plus will get $180pw. The rest of us will pay as essential services & payments are cut.
How can they even think about high-end tax cuts when ppl are struggling to survive right now?
_____________________
I think The Greens are right on this one. Labor is wrong.
I don’t think Labor needed to do this to win the election.
SK
Yes, very windy here too. No big trees lost but some big limbs in the last few years.
Andrews giving an excellent example of clear messaging at the start of his presser.
From memory, there are a lot of Pentecostals/evangelicals up that way in the Central Coast and I am told many (not all) arent keen on Covid restrictions, masks and immunisations.
176/60 today. Worst ever.
‘poroti says:
Tuesday, July 27, 2021 at 10:12 am
boerwar
It has cleaned out various petty dictators in Latin America.
Many points deducted though for the nasty dictators both ‘petty’ and ‘major’ they installed, often as replacements for the previous petty ones.’
______________________________
True. But the discussion was whether they were winning wars, not about the morality of those wars or of the war aims.
The decision to not charge the three removeralists is a big political mistake because it undermines the credibility of the restrictions and Welmar should be shifted to another role after this backdown.
Cameron C.
Bad numbers, though not unexpected.
It’s the Weimar Republic! Let’s hope it doesn’t end up like that did!
NSW – *172* cases, 60 in community, 19 partial, 85 “under investigation” (ie. source unknown), 2 deaths (both elderly ladies).
176/60…
I had rather thought that perpetual motion machines were past their use-by date.
Not for Berejiklian and Morrison, it seems.
Time to upgrade from the Ring of Rluffy Bunnies to the Cockroach Wall.
BK
“ But all Gladys will do is establish a ring of alfoil!”
I think the Liberals have the resources for a ring of tin hats.
85 new NSW cases still under investigation and 79 infectious while in the community.
3 nurses positive at Liverpool hospital a great concern.
boerwar at 11:02 am
But did they actually ‘win’ in the long term ? Tipping out one bastard to put in a bigger bastard who is ‘our bastard’ would seem a good way to increase resentment to you .
President Trump at “Juneteenth” rally last year on how to reduce cases? IT’S TIME TO SLOW THE TESTING DOWN.**
** For the information of non-neurotypical readers: Some degree of sarcasm intended.
guytaur,
The greens are wrong on the tax cuts and what is even more pleasing is they can do sweet FA about it.
They are a politically impotent rabble on this issue just as they are on so many other issues.
Dictator Dan pokes Gladys with a sharp stick.
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Dan Andrews has had this to say about those tougher NSW border measures:
I take no pleasure in having to essentially lock out those four communities from Victoria, but there’s a refusal to lock people in Sydney into Sydney, so I have no choice but to make these changes.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/jul/27/australia-covid-live-lockdown-gladys-berejiklian-victoria-southaustralia-nsw-covid#:~:text=Premier%20Dan-,Andrews,-has%20had%20this
Gladys.. always but always deflects to “had we not taken action when we did we would have 10’s on millions… ” but never ever answers the the quest ” had we taken action early & when we should have we wouldn’t be in lockdown now”
Berejiklian:
We’re now seeing the virus become more prevalent in western Sydney than southwestern Sydney.
Of course we want to ask the Southwestern community to stay vigilant, in particular, I want to call out to the Fairfield local government area who have shown a positive result in declining number of cases.
But now we’ve seen adjoining councils in Western Sydney, increase the number of cases they have and we ask for populations in the Canterbury Bankstown area in the Liverpool area in the Cumberland community in particular and also the [inaudible] council area to make sure that they vigilant they coming forward to get tested, and you’re not leaving the house unless you absolutely have to.
Changing income tax rates doesnt even scratch the surface of reform. It is worse – it is a smokescreen.
The country is screaming for a more efficient, fair and less leaky tax system. One that keeps the coffers full, encourages economic growth, productivity, investment and innovation, and helps those on lower and zero incomes. Someone, please, shake off the Henry report. Journos, please, balance your swipes at proposed changes with the need to do something (just like they cant do with the CC debate and failed to do here wrt the nRAH – its all gotchas).
Australia is becoming rusted shut to any real progress on just about anything.
I feel we’re starting to turn the corner here in Vic with the eased restrictions.
More vaccinations happening inc AZ – hard and fast short lockdowns – majority public compliance.
Just need Morrison to hurry up and get the damn purpose-built quarantine centre built.
Officially, America never lost in Vietnam.
According to Nixon, they achieved “peace with honour”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_with_Honor
Mexicanbeemer,
Interesting that you would support the case for politicians and public officials being able to overrule police determinations ?
‘Dominoes’ was always simplistic.
Spot the patterns:
Inner Mongolia was first to go, grabbed by the comrades shortly after WW2.
Tibet is now part of a communist state. Made that way by way of armed invasion, the death of hundreds of thousands of Tibetans and the expulsion of hundreds of thousands more.
Hong Kong had a thriving liberal democracy. Following armed intervention it is now part of a communist state.
Laos is a communist state.
Vietnam is a despotic communist state.
Cambodia is a corrupt and despotic vassal state of the Comrades. Not communist.
North Korea is a despotic communist state and a vassal state.
South Korea a liberal democracy ONLY exists because of US war making.
Taiwan ONLY exists as a liberal democracy because of the threat of US war making.
Nepal is in play ONLY because the power and influence of India and China offset to some extent. China is supplying resources to the Maoist rebellion therein.
The Indian Northeastern provinces have been the site for direct Chinese military aggression against India and is also the site for Chinese support for internal communist rebels.
Russia is in the process of losing its far eastern provinces – mainly through peaceful infiltration of people and investment.
Japan’s territorial integrity depends on US warmaking potential.
Parts of several South-east Asian countries have been grabbed by China.
China’s land grabs of PI territories in the South China are limited by a PI/US Treaty.
I take no pleasure in having to essentially lock out those four communities from Victoria, but there’s a refusal to lock people in Sydney into Sydney, so I have no choice but to make these changes.
———————
Those LGAs and towns should look to lock out the rest of NSW and join Vic. Will Berejiklian let them?