Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more

A new federal poll from Resolve Strategic plus a data dump from Essential Research equals a lot to discuss.

First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.

There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.

Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.

The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.

Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.

All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.

The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.

The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,799 comments on “Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more”

Comments Page 17 of 36
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  2. Morrisons hair transplant is becoming more obvious at the front of his head.This is probably why he is spending time away from public view.

  5. With the Morrison LNP polling deteriorating so quickly it will be interesting to see the polling results in a few weeks, with the polling being entirely conducted during the latest politically infused delayed lockdown in NSW and the swift decisive lockdowns in Vic. SA and WA.
    How quickly will the Liberal Party react to the seemingly unre-electable Morrison and the seemingly unacceptable DPM Joyce?
    The LNP find themselves “in a pickle”, devoid of leadership, dishonest and lacking unity.

  6. Lars,

    I’m the Great Leslie to your Professor Fate routine. Of course ,you have the supportive sychophant nath playing Maximillian to give you enduring love and respect to doyour dastardly commands.

    But, the story always works out in the end for the good guys like me apart from the occasional Pie Fight!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDJQ7zn3-2g

  8. On last visiting my chiropractor, she asked me if I’d had the jab. I said yes. I asked her somewhat innocently, had she yet bothered. That didn’t go down too well – a Freudian slip? After all, they do get close when performing their manipulations and she is eligible for A-Z.

  9. Spot on Katharine Murphy:

    Morrison was asked on Wednesday morning on radio whether he would apologise for the sluggish rollout. The prime minister responded by saying he was a fixer, not a ruminator; he was “accountable”, but somehow, not entirely answerable.

  11. Mavis @ #806 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 9:18 pm

    On last visiting my chiropractor, she asked me if I’d had the jab. I said yes. I asked her somewhat innocently, had she yet bothered. That didn’t go down too well – a Freudian slip? After all, they do get close when performing their manipulations and she is eligible for A-Z.

    Have you not heard that Chiropractors are one of the largest Anti Vax demographics? Something to do with their founder’s pov about vaccines in general.

  14. Mavis says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 9:18 pm
    On last visiting my chiropractor

    Dangerous asking about believing in science before being unscientifically manipulated

  15. If you are hoping to travel overseas eventually:

    “Europe’s got to accept the Australian version of Astra. They don’t at the moment. They only accept the British version of Astra because that’s the one that’s been approved by the regulatory agency. So there is work to be done by the Australian government to get the Australian-manufactured Astra approved.”

    That was Dr Norman Swan on ABC Radio Sydney on July 17, 2021, addressing the question of Australians being able to travel freely around Europe – and it set alarm bells ringing among travellers.

    The European Medicines Agency (EMA), the body that evaluates and regulates medicinal products within the EU, has authorised only four vaccines for use. While the Pfizer vaccine – under the name Comirnaty – is one of those, the AstraZeneca vaccine dispensed in Australia is not.

    https://www.traveller.com.au/astrazeneca-vaccine-and-international-travel-will-europe-and-us-allow-australians-to-enter-h1xavq

  16. To win olympic gold medals, we should be including the sports of Austraian Rules Football, Trugo, T-20 Cricket, lawn bowls, Beer Can regattas, Boomerang throwing and Farnarkling to the ever expanding list of sports…

  17. Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 9:15 pm
    Lars,

    I’m the Great Leslie to your Professor Fate routine. Of course ,you have the supportive sychophant nath playing Maximillian to give you enduring love and respect to doyour dastardly commands.

    But, the story always works out in the end for the good guys like me apart from the occasional Pie Fight!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDJQ7zn3-2g
    ______________________________
    Pie fight? You’d eat the pie.

  18. Hair check.
    Scotty august 2020

    File: Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison holds a press conference at Kirribilli House in Sydney, Australia on 15 July 2021
    ?width=990&auto=webp&quality=75

  19. The waning uptake was highlighted on Tuesday when the Sydney Olympic Park vaccination hub gave 8295 Pfizer vaccinations and just 50 AstraZeneca.
    1 hour ago

    Brilliant! Given that Pfizer is “controlled” it means the vaccination rate has fallen through the floor…

  23. Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 9:31 pm
    Lars,

    How is your mental health?

    RuOK?
    _________________________
    Yes all good – thanks for asking GG!

  25. “Other than a new indoor aquatic centre (yay!) all the main event complexes will be repurposed existing ones.”

    This is a big reason why they won. E.g. the Gabba is due for a refurb; now it will get a fandangled refurb. Albion is getting a basketball arena to go with the cross-city train tunnel upgrade and expanded cricket facilities, so Boondall can be retired. And even the (temporary) aquatic centre will be part of the rebuild of Roma St train station.

    I think the biggest completely new build is a whitewater centre in the Redlands.

  26. When we reach the stage of correctly anticipating Scotty’s next move, I think he’s lost the dominating position he needs. 😆

  27. C@t

    Yes, I pointed that out recently. Whilst I take some comfort in being vaccinated with AZ, the risk to me personally (and my family) is such that I’m going to do everything possible to get a booster (Pfizer or Moderna) before the end of the year, or at least before the government does something stupid. I might even act to try to get it sooner if it appears that Gladys hasn’t learnt her lesson over plugging quarantine leaks.

    I certainly wouldn’t travel on AZ alone, purely for my personal safety. And by late 2022, or maybe mid 2023 (which is when I think I might be able to travel) I’ll have to reconsider what the state of the art is. Probably a booster with something that’s been updated for the latest strains.

  29. @dbRaevn
    VIC COVID-19 Map – Situation at lockdown
    #COVID19vic

    This map shows what was known and unknown when the Victorian lockdown started.

    Green = already known
    Yellow = already acquired infection, but not yet known
    Orange = unknow acquisition/possibly acquired after lockdown

  35. I think Scotty is in a dificult position with his hair. He should have begun the process earlier. Perhaps he thinks it will help his reelection.

  36. Mr O’Brien told The Age that if the Sydney removalists who sparked one of the state’s two Delta outbreaks were forced to undergo a rapid COVID test at the border, “we wouldn’t be where we are today” and criticised the speed at which the government tightened rules to prevent COVID-positive people travelling to Victoria.

    “I thought they were quite slow in terms of closing the border with NSW,” Mr O’Brien said.

    Will closing borders claim stand Fact Check or was O’Brien dreaming that he tougher it.. as opposed to calling previously for borders to stay open / no lockdown… just like NSW

  38. SfM is probably lining up post PM opportunities

    Can just see him doing a warnie- In the Advanced Hair yeah nah ad

    Those plugs do have a alot of curls though, probably better not to transplant hair from your own hairy parts to your head unless you want a grey afro

  39. Sceptic says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 9:40 pm
    Lars
    38th out of 38 & falling.
    However hair transplants are up.
    ________________________
    Nope – look at the Operation Covid Shield update on the health.gov.au website – its getting a lot better. The vaccination rate has gone up 2% in the last week – this will be done by Christmas.

  44. Sceptic says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 9:51 pm
    Struggle to meet vaccination demand in Sydney’s hotspots as older residents shun AstraZeneca

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/struggle-to-meet-vaccination-demand-in-sydney-s-hotspots-as-older-residents-shun-astrazeneca-20210721-p58bq4.html

    Not one positive thing for the Feds in this article… clusterf**k
    Not even Lars can spin it.
    _____________________________________
    15% fully vaccinated / 35% partially vaccinated – going up by 1m per week – we are on our way Aussies!

  45. Lars Von Trier @ #839 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 9:49 pm

    Lars, idiot. it should have been done last Christmas, not Christmas 2021.

    China is completely open now, they had a 3-month lockdown, and over 1.48B vaccinated (first dose).

  47. Player One says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 9:52 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #839 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 9:49 pm

    The vaccination rate has gone up 2% in the last week – this will be done by Christmas.
    At 2% per week? I don’t think so. Maybe by next Easter?
    _________________________________
    Pfizer supply goes up in October. Plus Moderna arrives then -so 2% will be 5% per week in October.

    This is the thing – the ALP by going after vaccine rates scores short term points – but also enables scomo to say – it was tough but I got it done.

  49. Zerlo says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 9:54 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #839 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 9:49 pm

    Lars, idiot. it should have been done last Christmas, not Christmas 2021.

    China is completely open now, they had a 3-month lockdown, and over 1.48B vaccinated (first dose).
    ______________________________
    Wtf – it should have been done in April 2020!

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