Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more

A new federal poll from Resolve Strategic plus a data dump from Essential Research equals a lot to discuss.

First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.

There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.

Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.

The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.

Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.

All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.

The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.

The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,799 comments on “Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more”

Comments Page 18 of 36
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  1. Scotty has been in witness protection for a month or so, how much longer will it be this way, just how many people believe he has had a tough time.
    Every single day he comes across as very lazy, and slow to do anything….
    Tough time my arse!!

    The leaders of the states are the ones making the hard and tough decisions, trying to save as many peoples lives. Whilst Scotty hides away and pops up whenever he has something to market.

  2. Player One says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 9:57 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #847 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 9:55 pm

    it was tough but I got it done.
    How many people will die because of late vaccinations? I reckon it will easily go to double digits.
    ________________________________
    Most likely. It was 800 odd in Victoria last year.

  3. One this is for sure, there wont be an election until we are 80+% vacced and the borders open so maybe completed by May 2022

  4. As someone said here earlier today, the botched vaccine rollout is quite possibly the greatest policy failure in the history of the Australian federation, certainly since WW2. It compounds prior failures in border control (including quarantine) and aged care. State Governments (yes, even including Gladys) have alleviated the worst effects so that we have thus far managed to dodge the sort of disaster we’ve seen in Europe and the USA.

  5. Was gunna put a fiver on that, but the race’s been called.

    I’m sorry I didn’t realise dangling the bait would spoil the evening , I won’t do it again.

  6. Sceptic says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 10:02 pm
    Was gunna put a fiver on that, but the race’s been called.

    I’m sorry I didn’t realise dangling the bait would spoil the evening , I won’t do it again.
    ________________
    Does it hurt when you hear different p.o.v’s?

  10. Well PL1 you have to nominate a date when all vaccines should have been done – thats presumably not now given the US and the UK are still vaccinating.

  12. England Is ‘Free.’ And in Total Chaos…..

    He had to resign for breaking social distancing guidelines with his tongue…

    Fittingly, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, lover of liberty (especially his own) and architect of the “plan,” couldn’t celebrate; he was self-isolating. He had been in contact with Sajid Javid, the health minister, who was double-vaccinated and tested positive for the coronavirus on Saturday. (The English are discovering, to their alarm, that vaccines are not invincible.) Mr. Javid is new to the job: He was installed last month after the previous health minister, Matt Hancock, was photographed kissing an adviser in his office. He had to resign for breaking social distancing guidelines with his tongue.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/20/opinion/britain-freedom-day-johnson.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

    Surprised this article met NYT editorial standards… too funny

  13. I’d say there would be neo-liberals inside the Liberals who hate that Australia got the Olympics. Remember when Campbell Newman got into office they secretly took legal advice if they could cancel the Gold Coast Commonwealth games. I’m not making this up its in the link below. However, the Liberals doubled debt in their time in office even before the pandemic. And for all their scaremongering about Labor’s debt during a financial crisis and ‘we have to live within our means’ crap they are the gold medal winners of talking the talk but not walking the walk. So to hell with them………….

    https://www.9news.com.au/videos/lnp-wanted-to-cancel-commonwealth-games/cjkay2j2t000y0rltuu9vrvaw

  14. So what is your point sceptic? You cant open up even if you are fully vaccinated?

    Tony Blair said they should have given everyone vaccinated total freedom but restricted the non vaccinated.

  16. No citizen the ourworldindata figures are out of date – we have well and truly overtaken the Kiwis. Aussies are finishing this strongly!

  17. Steve777,

    Thank you for the stimulus. Is the botched vaccine rollout is the greatest policy failure in the history of the Australian federation? What are the other contenders?

    Reversal of the carbon pricing scheme?
    All the way with LBJ (compounded with conscription)?
    The White Australia policy?
    To exclude Aboriginals and Torres Strait Islanders from citizenship in our Constitution in 1901?

    What are people’s thoughts?

  19. “ The vaccination rate has gone up 2% in the last week – this will be done by Christmas.”

    If we were talking about Xmas in July this year, then that would be a bare pass mark.

    But we are not. Will Australians be so fickle, forgiving and short of memory to forgive and re-elect Promo next March-May? That is the question.

    Liberal Lars is certainly hoping so.

  20. Lars Von Trier @ #860 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 10:08 pm

    Well PL1 you have to nominate a date when all vaccines should have been done – thats presumably not now given the US and the UK are still vaccinating.

    Your boss nominated it. How many months behind schedule has he now admitted we are? Mind you, that was behind his revised, revised, revised schedule/target/horizon, not the original one.

  22. Not a fan of the Olympics and have a lot of serious ethical reservations about them but I am not one to rain on others’ picnics, so I am happy for everyone who are happy about the news. Congratulations, Brisbane. I hope it brings you what you want.

  23. Player One says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 10:22 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #860 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 10:08 pm

    Well PL1 you have to nominate a date when all vaccines should have been done – thats presumably not now given the US and the UK are still vaccinating.
    Your boss nominated it. How many months behind schedule has he now admitted we are? Mind you, that was behind his revised, revised, revised schedule/target/horizon, not the original one.
    _______________________________
    Who cares? The only thing is the vaccination roll-out is finished – the why’s and wherefores of how we got there will be academic.

    Tell me please Labor’s whole strategy is not based on panning the vaccination roll-out? Attacking something – which is depend on vaccination production (which is being produced 24/7) seems like a loser to me!

  26. Fumbles

    “One this is for sure, there wont be an election until we are 80+% vacced and the borders open so maybe completed by May 2022”

    Two problems here. Firstly, getting to 80% vaccinated (whole population) means providing “incentives” to vaccinate and vaccinating kids. That takes time to organise and to get over the political inertia that will be there against “no jab no play”.

    The other is that we’re going to need a booster and getting that into people’s arms is going to take several months.

    July/Aug maybe.

  27. Operation Covid Shield

    I am waiting for the follow up when they realise that boosters are needed for everyone and AZ is not effective enough then we will have the sequal

    Operation Covid Storm

  31. Cud

    You are right, I was just thinking there will not be an election until SloMO can stand up and say

    Mission Accomplished to operation covid shield with XX% of the population done and no risk of lockdowns

  32. Griff says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 10:20 pm
    Steve777,

    Thank you for the stimulus. Is the botched vaccine rollout is the greatest policy failure in the history of the Australian federation? What are the other contenders?

    Reversal of the carbon pricing scheme?
    All the way with LBJ (compounded with conscription)?
    The White Australia policy?
    To exclude Aboriginals and Torres Strait Islanders from citizenship in our Constitution in 1901?

    What are people’s thoughts?

    ____________________
    CPRS
    Pink Batts
    Medicare Gold
    ID Card

  33. Griff @ #867 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 10:20 pm

    Steve777,

    Thank you for the stimulus. Is the botched vaccine rollout is the greatest policy failure in the history of the Australian federation? What are the other contenders?

    It’s up there. Other considerations:

    a) all States to provide commercial rates for resumption of property;

    b) all States to require the option of a jury trial;

    c) recognition of councils (err, scratch that…)

    But I’m regressing to the 1980’s…

  34. NZ transparency..

    https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#summary

    COVID-19 vaccinations: summary

    Cumulative total
    First dose administered 924776
    Second dose administered 628259
    Total doses administered 1553035

    105% off their target reached.

    Side effects data..
    https://www.medsafe.govt.nz/COVID-19/safety-report-18.asp

    AEFI reports received and vaccine doses administered, up to and including 3 July 2021
    406
    New AEFI reports since last update
    (389 new non-serious and 17 new serious)
    2
    New safety signals (potential safety issues) have been identified
    1,229,212
    Total doses administered
    (cumulative)
    5,877
    Total AEFI reports that were non-serious
    268
    Total AEFI reports that were serious
    6,145
    Total AEFI reports that were received
    (cumulative)

    There were 389 non-serious and 17 serious reports this week. Sadly, two of these serious reports reported on deaths. For more information, please refer to the summary of reported deaths. No safety concerns with the Comirnaty vaccine were raised by these reports.

    Meanwhile SfM gives us MUSHROOMS

  35. Yes, well this is the problem. Scomo is hoping that he can announce “mission accomplished” in January.

    That could go horribly wrong for him. Especially if he’s stupid enough to announce “opening up”.

    I’m hoping it will become a point of difference with Labor taking a more sensible approach (ie, we need a higher rate and we need a booster first).

  39. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 10:32 pm
    Cud

    You are right, I was just thinking there will not be an election until SloMO can stand up and say

    Mission Accomplished to operation covid shield with XX% of the population done and no risk of lockdowns
    _____________________-
    Absolutely his plan! People will only care that its done – won’t care how we got there.

  40. Thank you for the stimulus. Is the botched vaccine rollout is the greatest policy failure in the history of the Australian federation? What are the other contenders?
    ——-

    Sale of public utilities at knock down prices – Thanks Jeff
    Failure of private sector energy pricing and markets
    Sale of public transport and operation of the franchises
    Building of Toll roads that only benefit Macquarie Bank Shareholders – Citylink in Vic

  41. Nicko

    Well its “health.gov.au”… do you expect it to be anything other that politically compromised with Brendan Murphy involved?

  42. Fumbles

    Spending tens of billions on a temporary network. That has to make the top 5.
    Submarines. Those fighter jets.

    Enough to build a HSR network in two sentences.

  43. Cud

    What’s to be there will be a Freedom Day style announcement as he cant do anything original and will borrow from the British trump

  46. Griff says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 10:20 pm

    Steve777,

    Thank you for the stimulus. Is the botched vaccine rollout is the greatest policy failure in the history of the Australian federation? What are the other contenders?

    Reversal of the carbon pricing scheme?
    All the way with LBJ (compounded with conscription)?
    The White Australia policy?
    To exclude Aboriginals and Torres Strait Islanders from citizenship in our Constitution in 1901?

    What are people’s thoughts?
    _____________
    +
    The Soldier Settler Schemes
    Ripping up the Tram networks everywhere but Melbourne
    Subsidizing the inefficient car industry for decades

  48. Fumbles

    Exactly. Scomo borrowing from Borris is a real and present danger.
    Mind you, if he does, it will invite comparisons with a likely disaster.

  49. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid
    Transurban and Macquarie are different companies and the Victorian department of transport runs the pubic transport system so all the private operators does is operate the system but they are answerable to the department.

  50. Follicularly challenged Scotty should spend more of his time trying to obtain more Pfizer vaccine than having hair transplanted from the obvious spot on the back of his head to the front.
    Some of the transplanted hair is particularly curly so he may be having some taken from some private parts!
    Its really just another Morrison cover up!

Comments Page 18 of 36
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