Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A trend of declining approval for Scott Morrison and the government’s management of COVID-19 starts to bite on voting intention, according to the latest Newspoll.

As reported by The Australian, the normally stable Newspoll series has recorded a solid bump in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred, out from 51-49 at the previous poll three weeks ago. The Coalition and Labor are both on 39% of the primary vote, which is a two-point drop for the Coalition and a two-point gain for Labor, with the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%.

Scott Morrison is down four points on approval to 51% and up four on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 38% and up one to 46%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 51-33, narrowing from 53-33 last time. The Australian’s report also relates that approval of Morrison’s handling of the pandemic is down nine to 52% (UPDATE: disapproval is up nine to 45%), and that the government now records a net negative rating on handling of the vaccine rollout for the first time, with approval down 10 points to 40% and disapproval up 11 to 57%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1506.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,599 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 9:14 pm

    Wally set to make an appearance, in lockdown Sydney – despite saying he would be quarantined in Canberra for 2 weeks..’
    ______________________
    He’s gunna gallop a police horse into Fairfield.

  2. When the Morrison PMship is at an end, what will it be known for?

    Given history’s tendency to simplify these sorts of things to a few key details, I imagine the following will be remembered:

    “Thanks Scomo.”

    Winning the unwinnable election.

    Pissing off to Hawaii during the bushfires.

    Being “Scotty from Marketing.”

    The Endagine rumour.

    Brittany Higgins and all the subsequent revelations about workplace culture at Parliament House.

    And – possibly – totally stuffing the vaccine rollout. (Additionally, if that is the main thing that gets remembered about Scomo and the pandemic, then its likely the year or so when he got high marks for the Covid response will be forgotten by all but political historians.)

    This is, of course, assuming his time has PM might be coming to an end in the near future (whether by leadership spill or election loss), which is still a mighty big assumption. If he wins another term, all bets are off when it comes to his legacy.

  3. Crown Resorts is not suitable to hold Victoria’s sole casino license due to evidence it engaged in illegal conduct encouraged by a culture that put profit ahead of integrity, the royal commission’s lead lawyer has told the inquiry.

    Crown may owe the state nearly half a billion dollars in unpaid taxes, the inquiry heard. It has agreed to repay $50 million.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-20/crown-resorts-not-suitable-to-hold-victorian-casino-licence/100306858

  4. Mr Morrison, where the bloody hell are you?

    @sprocket_

    If that tweet is right and he is off to Sydney from Canberra for a party fundraiser dinner, in the middle of lockdown with half the country it sends a piss poor image.

    Judging by the twitter comments it has not been noticed, I get the feeling the emperor is losing a few garments

  5. sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 9:14 pm
    Wally set to make an appearance, in lockdown Sydney – despite saying he would be quarantined in Canberra for 2 weeks..

    His current two week quarantine at the Lodge dates from last Friday I think. Surely he would then have to do another two weeks after returning from the Liberal dinner in Sydney.

    This is probably his cunning plan – to keep returning to Sydney so that he never completes quarantine at the Lodge. This way he could escape any scrutiny for yonks.

  6. As I said earlier, we’re all only human at the end of the day, and the same applies to our so-called leaders:

    It was the perfect opportunity to lead by example, and show that nobody is above the rules.

    And Boris Johnson blew it. The prime minister’s first instinct, when he was pinged by test and trace on the eve of what he insists on calling freedom day, was not to model the behaviour he asks of the nation, but to try to wriggle out of self-isolating. No 10 announced that he and the chancellor (also pinged) would instead join a special pilot scheme, allowing some employees in critical industries to work as normal in exchange for testing daily.

    After the inevitable angry backlash from people who don’t have the option of dodging an enforced spell at home, Johnson swiftly U-turned and promised to hole up at his country retreat, Chequers, after all. But by then, the damage was done. “I know how frustrating it all is,” he said in a video urging people to follow the rules, which arguably only confirmed suspicions that he was doing so very reluctantly. Well, what did you expect? His whole life has been one long pilot scheme in seeing how far he can bend the rules and get away with it. He’s not going to change now.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/19/freedom-day-johnson-u-turn-pilot-scheme

  7. Alpha Zero,

    The data vis peeps on Twitter have been doing really innovative stuff for COVID-19. I need to take tips for my next paper! 🙂

  8. Well that has been a very stressful 24 hours.

    I hope that any complacent South Australians have been jolted out of said complacency. Nah, I expect people will be back to cramming close together in queues, forgetting to scan and not sanitising in no time.

  9. SteelyDan
    Morrison never hangs around. He has history.
    Whatever he’s doing, it will be expressed as the great sacrifice.
    He’s putting in for the budget, perhaps some more covid strategies, even post Covid strategies, the Olympics option is not too far fetched.
    The PM has been a bullshit artist since he can’t remember, but he never hangs around.
    In fact Morrison can’t wait to be rid of the PMship, the money’s in the bank and his portrait assured.
    Someone in the his past has suggested to Morrison “you’ll never amount to much”.
    Which he hasn’t, but it won’t stop his post PMship elder statesman, saviour of the nation routine, all of which is to be imposed upon a lazy unwelcoming electorate.
    Morrison is a fraud.
    He’s laughing at the liberal party, Barnaby, the voters and his distractors.
    No-one on PB owns up to a Morrison friendship, no politicians, no school friends.
    Except of course the American gospel con artist.
    Nah, the spruiker is wallowing in his own cleverness, he can’t lose from here.
    Being replaced as quickly as possible is his option.

  10. The conclusion has echoes that go all the way to Australia through NSW:

    Maddeningly, all this was not just predictable but endlessly and publicly predicted in recent weeks, yet now it’s happening the government seems curiously frozen in the headlights of the oncoming train. True, the decision it now faces is an impossible catch-22. Scrapping self-isolation rules earlier for the fully vaccinated, as Blair among others have suggested, risks infections soaring even higher, but keeping them might mean businesses and services collapsing. “The problem is we don’t know what to do,” an anonymous minister explained to the Mail on Sunday at the weekend. Well, that much is obvious. But doing nothing, and allowing the self-isolation regime to crumble by default as people take decisions into their own hands, is arguably the worst of all possible options. What is the point of a leader, if it’s not to lead?

    Remember that it was a Self Isolation regime that Scotty from Marketing was touting for us next, before Delta bit him on the bum.

  11. Maybe keep him in Quarantine, it’s a lot less damage, all he can do is cook curries and leave the real job of governing and responding to COVID to the capable leaders, Vic, QLD, SA, WA..Tas (NSW excluded)

  12. Asha Leu,

    Thank you for playing!

    My contribution is Morrison will be remembered as the absent PM.

    As for Turnbull and Abbott, I remember them as follows:

    Abbott was the PM that would sell his arse to be PM. Turnbull was the PM that never lived up to the promise.

  13. Am I getting the message that Scotty doesn’t have to obey any of the Covid rules? Not like the rest of us lowly plebs.

  14. No-one on PB owns up to a Morrison friendship

    Fine. I’ll own up. Scott and I go back many years. We hang out at every opportunity we can get and I was the best man at his wedding.

  15. https://www.smh.com.au/national/christian-porter-and-barrister-facing-550-000-costs-bill-court-hears-20210720-p58b91.html

    At a hearing in the Federal Court on Tuesday, Ms Dyer’s costs were estimated to be in the order of $550,000, based on one assessment. But Mr Porter and Ms Chrysanthou have queried how that sum was calculated.

    Ms Chrysanthou had previously advised Ms Dyer for free about an article in The Australian that was published after Ms Dyer appeared in an ABC Four Corners broadcast in November last year about Mr Porter and others. The rape allegation was not aired as part of that broadcast.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-57854811

    Mr Cummings told the BBC that he, UK chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance and England’s chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty had pushed for tougher restrictions from mid-September – Sir Patrick and Professor Whitty declined to comment.

    Mr Cummings went on to allege Mr Johnson had said: “No, no no, no, no, I’m not doing it.”

    The prime minister had “parts of the media and Tory party screaming” not to increase restrictions and “always referred” to the Daily Telegraph, for which he had previously written a column, as “my real boss”, Mr Cummings said.

  16. “always referred” to the Daily Telegraph, for which he had previously written a column, as “my real boss”, Mr Cummings said.

    It’s so refreshing to see a politician being honest.

  17. Singapore has given out enough doses to get 2 doses to 59 percent of the population.
    They are now tightening restrictions until they get a much higher vaccination.

    What I read into this:

    1. Singapore travel bubble isn’t going to happen this year.
    2. Australia has to come to terms with the fact that 50 or 60 percent (of entire population) isn’t good enough.
    3. Australia is going to have to go through the exercise of giving Pfizer/Moderna as a booster to those who got AstraZeneca.
    4. It won’t be safe to reopen (other than via expanded fit for purpose quarantine) until at least next July.

  18. “Fine. I’ll own up. Scott and I go back many years. We hang out at every opportunity we can get and I was the best man at his wedding.”

    And you also set fire to the Ghost Train?

  19. I wouldn’t be counting my chickens about Scomo yet. I’m still smarting from the pain of 2019. The politics of COVID are totally unpredictable. But for COVID it’s likely Trump would still be POTUS, and was one of the main reasons the NZ and WA governments experienced uber landslide victories. It seemed to be Boris Johnson’s political nemesis, then a wellspring of political success – and now looking like it could be heading back into nemesis territory again. Today that is. Next month., who knows. And the electorate has the collective memory of a goldfish.

  20. What about past PMs?

    Keating – Ambition, knifed old Hawkeie, Zegna suits
    Hawke – Common bloke, Aus II, consensus builder
    Fraser – Not sure
    Howard – Political Rat Cunning – Master of the Dog whistle
    Rudd – So much potential
    Gillard – Undermined by everyone, such a loss there
    Whitlam – laid the foundations for modern Australia but too much too fast

    Almost forgot

    Abbott – Knighted Prince Phillip, budgie smugglers
    Turnbull – The Fizzer

    Note I am a big Keating fan especially the reforms of the 80s

  21. Was returning there been working there for 9 years had to get 3 lots of permission to leave singapore and to return.
    Daughter flies out on Monday 26 th they have permission to come and go

  22. Maddeningly, all this was not just predictable but endlessly and publicly predicted in recent weeks, yet now it’s happening the government seems curiously frozen in the headlights of the oncoming train. True, the decision it now faces is an impossible catch-22. Scrapping self-isolation rules earlier for the fully vaccinated, as Blair among others have suggested, risks infections soaring even higher, but keeping them might mean businesses and services collapsing. “The problem is we don’t know what to do,” an anonymous minister explained to the Mail on Sunday at the weekend. Well, that much is obvious. But doing nothing, and allowing the self-isolation regime to crumble by default as people take decisions into their own hands, is arguably the worst of all possible options. What is the point of a leader, if it’s not to lead?

    The UK gave up. The best they can be is an example to everyone else on what not to do.

  23. C@t

    Wasn’t the self isolation that Scomo was talking about in regard to inbound travellers from overseas? Or did I miss something?

  24. C@tmomma @ #1500 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 9:21 pm

    ItzaDream @ #738 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 8:11 pm

    Bit of Oz Art

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/gallery/2021/jul/20/australias-silo-murals-make-a-road-trip-an-art-odyssey-in-pictures

    Did you see the virtual Archibald, Wynne and Sulman Prizes, Itza?

    https://www.artgallery.nsw.gov.au/art/channel/virtual-visit/archibald-prize-2021/

    Thanks C@t. Quick look, looks good. I’ll save for ron. Just watching Merkel visiting the disaster areas (BBC); not much tolerance for Morrison in Glasgow ahead I’d say. Whatever rabbit he pulls out, I think his, and the government’s, double speak wont wash – empty credibility bank, sorry.

  25. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid,

    Thanks for the extension set! I mostly agree. Rudd and Turnbull aren’t dissimilar in the promise lacking delivery.

    As for Fraser, to his credit, I would say “multiculturalism”. Plenty of negative stuff as well, but I think that this positive remains.

  26. https://www.smh.com.au/national/vast-majority-of-australian-muslims-suffer-prejudice-20210719-p58ayi.html

    Almost 80 percent of Australian Muslims experience unfavorable treatment, with Race Discrimination Commissioner Chin Tan warning the undercurrents of hate displayed in the Christchurch mosque attacks, are not an aberration.

    The Australian Human Rights Commission conducted a national survey of more than 1000 Muslims and consulted with community members across the country following the March 2019 terrorist attacks in New Zealand by an Australian white nationalist.

    Its report, released on Tuesday, says almost 80 percent of Australian Muslims experience prejudice or discrimination, most commonly when dealing with law enforcement, in the workplace or when seeking employment, at shops or restaurants, and online.

  27. Fumbles

    Keating made a bunch of mistakes due to “economic orthodoxy”. I liked him too, but (for example) the reintroduction of University fees was completely unnecessary. In short, too right wing for my liking.

  28. Agree 100% about Glasgow, Itza. Morrison won’t have Murdoch on his side there. Though we in the Hermit Kingdom 2.0 he has created here might get fooled again. We’ll see.

  29. Griff @ #1527 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 9:54 pm

    Dr Fumbles Mcstupid,

    Thanks for the extension set! I mostly agree. Rudd and Turnbull aren’t dissimilar in the promise lacking delivery.

    As for Fraser, to his credit, I would say “multiculturalism”. Plenty of negative stuff as well, but I think that this positive remains.

    The Vietnamese refugees are what I think of.

  30. Cud Chewer @ #802 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 9:50 pm

    C@t

    Wasn’t the self isolation that Scomo was talking about in regard to inbound travellers from overseas? Or did I miss something?

    Yes but I got an inkling he wanted it for us all eventually. Then he can save money on building dedicated quarantine facilities.

    Which matter seems to have gone cold when it comes to Queensland and any other Staten who was lining up to build one. I believe Victoria is still on track though.

  31. Interesting Tweet from some who took the time to check…

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Jules The Red Rat
    @RedJules4

    Just rang Morrison’s local Cook office. According to his staffer, he is not due to be seen or heard from until Friday after national cabinet. Given everything going on, I think this is appalling.
    Try yourself, if you don’t believe me (02) 9523 0339
    #auspol #MorrisonOutbreak

    So he’s gone underground for the last three days and not due to show himself until Friday, which, not coincidentally, is the Tokyo opening ceremony. A six day break while three states are in lockdown. Just magic. Every single Prime Minister, Liberal or Labor, would have been front and centre every day of this crisis but this jerk just sits around waiting for photo opportunities.

    We can rightly criticise Berejiklian for her appalling lack of judgement in not locking down early enough or for her absolute arrogance in abusing other states or her meek subservience to big business and her media minders. But at least she is there, every day, even if her performances are poor. The fact is she turns up. And I’m sure she has learnt some lessons. But this bloated slob Morrison just rolls on, doing nothing and getting paid a squillion. Surely someone in the LNP has to do something about this. We know he’s not a leader’s arsehole but these ongoing disappearances are getting beyond a joke.

  32. C@tmomma @ #1531 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 9:55 pm

    Agree 100% about Glasgow, Itza. Morrison won’t have Murdoch on his side there. Though we in the Hermit Kingdom 2.0 he has created here might get fooled again. We’ll see.

    I think we like/need international patronage and the faux sense of security of seeing our leaders welcomed if not feted. He’s not up to it. Trump was his highpoint. And how low was that.

  33. @Griff

    I agree, multicultural, the humane treatment of Vietnamese refugees, maybe the last of the old-school liberals. Also Fraser wasn’t of the current get into office and wreck the place mentality that we have seen especially with State LNP governments in Vic and QLD

  34. Malcolm Fraser was in many peoples’ minds defined by the way he attained office. Although modern “Liberals” regard him as practically a communist, back then he was seen as a radical right-winger in terms of the economy and industrial relations, a harbinger of the future Thatcher and Reagan regimes. Socially, he was actually a liberal.

  35. Indeed ItzaDream. I think Fraser helped to socialise a pluralistic Australian society and the welcoming of the Vietnamese refugees is an excellent exemplar. Arguably something that Whitlam started of course. But Fraser developed to his credit.

  36. The Big O

    “Surely someone in the LNP has to do something about this”

    Who? They’re right out of any substance whatsoever.

  37. I think the means to obtain office would never be forgotten for Fraser.

    Always remember my parents reaction to him on TV, just so arrogant as a PM. And this was from Liberal voters lol

  38. Jonathan Cheng
    @JChengWSJ
    Australian telco Telstra, once government-owned, is looking to buy six mobile networks in the South Pacific, adjacent to sensitive undersea cables, in a deal financed largely by Canberra. The reason? China, of course.
    @StuartLCondie
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/australia-seeks-to-block-china-with-stake-in-pacific-mobile-networks-11626689637

    Economically trying to block China at every turn.

    Tom Fowdy
    @Tom_Fowdy
    ·
    12m
    So Australia wants to buy the networks of six countries entirely and incorporate them into the five eyes surveillance system? There’s a huge hypocrisy in this given Huawei is only ever used as a vendor and China never actually buys other countries telecom networks wholesale!

  39. AR, the UK is worse than that. With its significantly vaccinated adult population it will be a Petrie dish for the development of vaccine resistant variants to spread out to the rest of the world.

  40. Itza,
    All I hope for is that COP26 is well researched when it comes to Morrison’s lines that he wants to run and they have the rebuttals to hand. Such as, ‘Technology not Taxes’, which is a stinker.

  41. Windhover @ #820 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 10:08 pm

    AR, the UK is worse than that. With its significantly vaccinated adult population it will be a Petrie dish for the development of vaccine resistant variants to spread out to the rest of the world.

    Yep. The ones that get over the top of the vaccines and the ones that ferment in the unvaccinated. And then they may even get together!

  42. Windhover @ #1544 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 10:08 pm

    AR, the UK is worse than that. With its significantly vaccinated adult population it will be a Petrie dish for the development of vaccine resistant variants to spread out to the rest of the world.

    Yes, that only furthers my point. The UK has done wrong by its people, and it’s done wrong by the rest of the world. By letting covid flourish as they are, they all but guarantee the emergence of new, vaccine-resistant variants.

    Nobody should follow their example.

  43. Cud Chewer says:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 9:55 pm

    Fumbles

    Keating made a bunch of mistakes due to “economic orthodoxy”. I liked him too, but (for example) the reintroduction of University fees was completely unnecessary. In short, too right wing for my liking.
    ____________
    You mean the Dawkins Reforms? It was under Hawke anyway.

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