Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A trend of declining approval for Scott Morrison and the government’s management of COVID-19 starts to bite on voting intention, according to the latest Newspoll.

As reported by The Australian, the normally stable Newspoll series has recorded a solid bump in favour of Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred, out from 51-49 at the previous poll three weeks ago. The Coalition and Labor are both on 39% of the primary vote, which is a two-point drop for the Coalition and a two-point gain for Labor, with the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation steady on 3%.

Scott Morrison is down four points on approval to 51% and up four on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 38% and up one to 46%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 51-33, narrowing from 53-33 last time. The Australian’s report also relates that approval of Morrison’s handling of the pandemic is down nine to 52% (UPDATE: disapproval is up nine to 45%), and that the government now records a net negative rating on handling of the vaccine rollout for the first time, with approval down 10 points to 40% and disapproval up 11 to 57%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1506.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,599 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Or, if I was internet clever a simple game of Where’s Scotty (from Marketing)…

    Toyko, London, Swansea, Glasgow, Honolulu..Bunnings

  2. I doubt NSW will ever get control of this, Victoria may this time but it will get out again, they have there own Fairfield’s. It will be lockdowns on and off until herd level immunisation about mid next year then we will have to let it rip.
    The election will be interesting, I still think it is Morrison who will get over the line, elections come down to less than 3% of Australians if the situation is bad do we trust the ALP to do better and if all is on the mend Morrison got us through.

  3. He might not be headed to Tokyo, but nothing surer than Wally cooking up some distraction stunt.

    What could it be? Announce a referendum into The Statement from the Heart? A Federal ICAC? What about net zero by 2050? Equal representation for women in the Liberal Party?

    Probably will be more pork for marginal electorates

  4. Singapore turns out to be not such a good example:

    Singapore: Three weeks after it outlined its much-publicised road map for living with COVID-19, Singapore is returning to a partial lockdown for a month.

    The south-east Asian city state is recording the highest incidence of new cases of the virus in 11 months with growing clusters around nightlife venues and a major fishing port causing alarm.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/now-is-not-the-time-to-risk-it-all-singapore-returns-to-lockdown-20210720-p58bfn.html

  5. ItzaDreamsays:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 8:12 pm
    I reckon he’s run our of string. I really do. The voices have stopped. God and Mordor gone silent.

    Really you believe that, Morrison will never ever give up. You asleep during last years election campaign. Journos could not keep up with Morrison up at the crack of dawn and 18 hour days and no one thought he could win. I don’t know why many of you talk such dribble is it a bit like if you say it enough it might come true, I don’t get it.

  6. Blayney, the refrigerator of the West. Back in the late 60s and early 70s I was at Uni in Sydney and occasionally journeyed home on Friday nights to visit my family for the weekend. The car had no heating, but did have an air vent that wouldnt bloody seal even with a towel and spare undies stuffed in to block the icy gale that it directed into the car. The plan was to reach the Blayney Chinese Cafe in time to eat and thaw out before completing the trip. It closed at 8.30 and we often seemed to be blocked at the level crossing by a snail like shunting train delivering sheep to the Abbatoir and an impatient wait would ensue while we agonised over the fast clock and slow train. How I hated the place.


  7. clem attlee says:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 5:34 pm

    For all those posters lauding Albanese’s performance as leader of the opposition, well he hasn’t had to do much. Basically, all he has done, is to get out of the way of Slow Mo, Gladys, Hunt and the rest.

    Know when to hold up, know when to fold up, know when to run.

  8. “Am I the only Bludger not to have had the swab stick up the nostril?”

    Careful, BB, it may detect traces of human DNA 🙂

  9. ‘frednk says:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 8:34 pm

    clem attlee says:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 5:34 pm

    For all those posters lauding Albanese’s performance as leader of the opposition, well he hasn’t had to do much. Basically, all he has done, is to get out of the way of Slow Mo, Gladys, Hunt and the rest.
    …’
    ________________________________________
    Haha. We have had a conga line of Bludger hopefuls slagging Albanese for years. Not loud enough. Not shouty enoug. Not taking it up to Morrison. Doesn’t back this policy. Must back that policy.
    jibber jabber jibber jabber.
    Now someone turns up who recognizes that Albanese has quietly been playing a blinder against a stacked deck.

  10. I posted this the other day.It was a headline article in the online Oz. Maybe explains where Morrison is .

    steve davis says:
    Saturday, July 17, 2021 at 12:53 am
    Morrison to make final pitch for Games
    The Prime Minister will lead Brisbane’s final pitch to secure the 2032 Olympics in a live video presentation to more than 100 International Olympic Committee delegates next week.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fmorrison-to-make-final-pitch-for-games%2Fnews-story%2F7967e57a8fc20a5c47056a987e38a14a&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium

    Paywalled

  11. It would the height of folly, a massive misjudgement, for Mr Morrison to go to Tokyo this week. Hawaii Mk II. His own act of knighting Prince Philip.

  12. Borewar
    Now someone turns up who recognizes that Albanese has quietly been playing a blinder against a stacked deck.

    Seriously he could not get anyone to the national press club address, I am talking empty seats they could not even fill it up the ALP hacks. I actually like the man and he wont be out jogging with man boobs flapping looking constipated like Shorten but playing a blinder, give me a break.

    As for Stacked Deck… the cards have fallen nothing but his way, talk about blinkers…how can you be so right about China and so blind in other areas.

  13. boerwar

    I like Albo, very calm, he is not running round trying to make himself the enter of attention,not announcing policy for the Greens to thrash ( and boy are they winging) . He is doing a good job I think.

  14. Actually, as it all comes back to me like a re-lived nightmare dipped in PTSD, I recall now that I only passed through Blayney, on the way to God’s Forgotten Ice Pit, alias Milthorpe.

    Now that WAS damn cold.

  15. ‘frednk says:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 8:45 pm

    boerwar

    I like Albo, very calm, he is not running round trying to make himself the enter of attention,not announcing policy for the Greens to thrash ( and boy are they winging) . He is doing a good job I think.’
    ___________________________________________
    Yep.

  16. Mexicanbeemer at 8:55 pm

    You are probably right, but people do strange things when they are under pressure and starting to panic, especially when stunts are all they’ve really got, or have ever had for that matter. And it’s worse if they are the types who don’t listen to advice or learn from previous mistakes.

  17. Steelydan @ #1285 Tuesday, July 20th, 2021 – 8:19 pm

    ItzaDreamsays:
    Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 8:12 pm
    I reckon he’s run our of string. I really do. The voices have stopped. God and Mordor gone silent.

    Really you believe that, Morrison will never ever give up. You asleep during last years election campaign. Journos could not keep up with Morrison up at the crack of dawn and 18 hour days and no one thought he could win. I don’t know why many of you talk such dribble is it a bit like if you say it enough it might come true, I don’t get it.

    Nor do I.
    Morrison will do whatever it takes.
    His party will back him.

  18. Son in law just flew out of Melbourne to singapore on a scoot flight I think
    Passenger numbers 1. He was the only person on the flight.

  19. Recon (Tuesday, July 20, 2021 at 11:31 am):

    WTF. Both Labor and Liberal kept subsidising the car industry until recently. It was definitely protection. The reason why Keating didn’t remove this area of protection was because of Union pressure on Caucus. It cost the public untold billions to prop it up.

    All automotive assembly industries are subsidized in various different ways, because all of the profit is in automotive components (but regional assembly is necessary as a customer for automotive components).

    The winner is Germany, which has a highly profitable automotive components industry but largely supplies assembly operations in other nearby countries. These assembly operations are often owned by Germany but subsidised by the government in which the factory is located.

    Britain had a large automotive assembly before Brexit, subsidised by Her Majesty’s Govt, using high profit components from Germany, low cost labour from various places and often sending vehicle back to Germany for sale.

    This appears to be expanding post Brexit, such that Britain is doing more assembly with a larger government subsidy (driven in part by the political embarrassment that would arise if Britain were to lose car assembly a second time: to lose one car industry may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness). More profit for German automotive component suppliers and German owned multi-national automotive manufacturers (though margins will be cut slightly due increased friction)

    Australia has two problems:
    – unlike Germany we can’t offshore the unprofitable part, as there’s no regional assembly industry
    – automotive industry electricians (running robots in car assembly plants) and engineering managers supply the highly variable (boom/bust) needs of the mining industry, which due to the boom/bust has some difficulty sustaining this part of its workforce (moving around the world only help s a bit, since the boom/bust tends to be globally synchronized)

  20. @dbRaevn
    VIC COVID-19 Map – 20th July 2021
    #COVID19vic

    ___________________________________________
    Again the visuals of this are just so amazing that we can trace all of these outbreaks like this…

  21. Steelydan,
    Lol.

    Australia has had 3 years of Morrison and you’re trying to say the electorate will still love him after all we’ve been through with him? Only someone with their eyes wide shut about Morrison would say that.

  22. Wally set to make an appearance, in lockdown Sydney – despite saying he would be quarantined in Canberra for 2 weeks..

  23. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/bill-oreilly-politico-lawsuit-threat-trump-b1886176.html

    Former Fox News host Bill O’Reilly has threatened to sue over a news report that ticket sales have been poor for his upcoming interview tour with former president Donald Trump.

    Politico reported on Friday that “ticket sales are moving slowly” at venues in a number of cities including Dallas and Orlando.

    When reporter Daniel Lippman asked Mr O’Reilly for comment, he found himself at the receiving end of the ex-host’s famous temper.

    Mr O’Reilly disputed that sales were low and insisted that no marketing had yet taken place for the tour beyond the initial announcement.

  24. Imacca
    Morrison has made mistakes and in politics mistakes accumulate to reach a point where a politician makes one mistake too many and becomes politically terminal.

    Going to Tokyo will go down like a lead balloon and while the Liberals will point to Anastasia being there but she is trying to get the games to her state whilst he will look like he is holidaying in the middle of a crisis.

  25. Anthony Albanese
    @AlboMP
    ·
    1h
    Australia has lockdowns in three states and the PM hasn’t been seen in three days.

    Whenever there’s a crisis, Scott Morrison goes missing.
    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    ·
    1h
    As of 6pm tonight, more than half of all Australians are in lockdown because Mr Morrison failed to do his job.

    He failed to rollout the vaccine, and he failed to implement safe quarantine.

    This is Mr Morrison’s lockdown.

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