Essential Research leadership and COVID polling

The shine continues to come off Scott Morrison’s COVID-boosted personal ratings, plus new evidence of a softening in support for the Coalition among women.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which gives Scott Morrison his weakest results since the onset of COVID-19 – down six on approval to 51% and up four on disapproval to 40%, with his lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 48-28 to 46-28. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 41% and down one on disapproval to 35%. These numbers have been fed into the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, sharpening Morrison’s established downward trend.

Approval of the federal government’s response to COVID-19 has also deteriorated, with a nine point drop in the good rating since last month to 44% and a six point increase in poor to 30%. Among respondents in New South Wales, the good rating for the federal government has slumped from 62% to 44%, and that for the state government is down from 69% to 57%. A range of other questions are featured on matters relating to COVID-19, including findings that 36% would be willing to get the Pfizer vaccine but not AstraZeneca (5% said vice-versa); that 40% believe the vaccine rollout is being down efficiently, down from 43% a month ago (and 68% earlier in the year); and that 64% believe it is being done safely, down from 67%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1099; full results can be viewed here.

Elsewhere, the Age/Herald yesterday published results aggregated from the three monthly Resolve Strategic polls which compared current voting intention with how respondents recalled having voted in 2019, and found women were more likely to have shifted away from the Coalition (down four points to 37%) than men (down one to 41%). On the subject of Resolve Strategic, Macquarie University academic Murray Goot casts a critical eye over its (and to a lesser extent Essential Research’s) attitudinal polling in Inside Story and takes aim at its refusal to join the Australian Polling Council and adhere to its transparency standards.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,546 comments on “Essential Research leadership and COVID polling”

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  1. Spraysays:
    Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 5:38 pm

    Cheers Arthur, nice to see you again

    Can you point out what was “outrageously idiotic, moronic or overblown” about my comment? I would have thought that it turned out to be remarkably accurate.

    ……..

    On the 27th of June this year, you were confident the Berejiklian government would “snuff it out in a hurry”.

    In conflating that lie Mr Spray, you are now complicit in a great many deaths.

    I hope your wife is one of them.

  2. @jonkuldeka tweets

    Really not sure an ad scaring the shit out of people to get themselves vaccinated is useful when the reason most people aren’t vaccinated is due to the ineptitude of the people making the fucking ad.

    Unless the ad finishes with UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES VOTE FOR THESE CLOWNS EVER AGAIN in which case fair play.

  3. Afternoon all. Obviously the covid numbers from Sydney today are concerning and I wish good fortune and health to everyone in NSW.

    That being said, I found it laughable to hear from Coalition boosters that we should not “politicise” the situation. This from a political party that politicises EVERYTHING. Laughable.
    – Sending out checks on Liberal Party logo for community funding with taxpayer money
    – Criticising any attempt at lockdown by other Labor states even when done on medical advice
    – presenting EVERY action by government as the Liberal party’s doing
    – denying responsibility for EVERY government failure, even when directly due to a Liberal Minister’s decision.
    – gaslighting every critic, even those within their own party.

    Its like getting a lecture on the evils of propaganda from Joseph Goebbels.

    They don’t want the NSW Covid outbreak politicised because the outbreak is precisely the fault of Liberal party politicians:
    -Morrison who refused to fund proper quarantine
    – Hunt who failed to get adequate vaccine stocks
    – Berejiklian who failed to lock down early enough
    – Hazzard, who seems unable to communicate coherent lockdown rules.

    Score for July: Liberal 0: Labor 4 (all Liberal own goals).

  4. The ad is a pile of crap. Not sure showing arms with bandaids motivates people to get vaccinated. It cost $41m? How is that possible?

  5. Hmm, I might have spoken too soon re the ad. Think I’ll defer to those who actually know what they are talking about.

  6. Socrates @ #3308 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 6:14 pm

    On happier news (for the planet) the rest of the world really is backing out of coal. This story from India, where most government auctions for bids to build new coal mines have been passed in with no bidder.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/india/no-bids-over-70-indian-coal-mines-up-auction-2021-07-09/

    So how are those Adani jobs looking now, Matt Canavan?

    He can always get a job as a chimney sweep. 🙂

  7. Spray’s story checks out — his “snuff it out in a hurry” comment was made in reference to Perth. My inclination to assume this to have been an honest mistake by Arthur is complicated by his recent performance in fabricating a quote from Firefox to sustain an argument that had collapsed beneath his feet, much as he’s doing here. And now he’s saying he hopes Spray’s wife dies. Unless he can give me good cause not to, I’m going to ban him.

  8. guytaur @ #3293 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 6:02 pm

    @sonialf tweets

    My ICU and respiratory colleagues would not let someone suffer like that before they intervened. #COVID19nsw #medtwitter.

    For your discussion

    Once the situation gets past a certain point, that person and their ICU and respiratory colleagues won’t have a choice in the matter. Only so many beds, only so many ventilators, only so many staff members available.

    We’ve seen covid overrun healthcare systems enough times. No hospital worker, however well-intentioned, can stop every patient from suffering and dying like that once the deluge starts.

  9. Arthur,

    That is one of the worst comments ever on PB.

    You should ask for it to be removed and hang your head in shame.

  10. I hope your wife is one of them.

    Jesus fucking Christ.

    Spray may not have deserved that bronze, but you definitely won gold in “Asshole of the Week.”

  11. You know when a government gets to the point where all the smart rats start deserting the sinking ship? I think the Morrison government are at that point. No one with any smarts that the Morrison government could or should have tapped to make that ad was anywhere near the making of it.

  12. AR

    The advert is supposed to encourage vaccination. Not scare people from going to hospital.

    There are many advertising campaigns praised even today like the ones Bill Shorten tweeted about that do the job. It’s not exactly reinventing the wheel.

  13. guytaur,
    Like I was saying, I think the Coalition are down to relying on the old lags in the Advertising industry they’ve always used, who don’t seem to have a clue about how to devise an effective ad in the modern era of advertising. I think you’ll find that Labor have leapfrogged them with their ads at the next election.

  14. C@t, you also have to wonder how much SfM has been meddling in the ads, expert that he thinks he is, and the ads are rushed, never good.

  15. ItzaDream @ #3326 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 6:32 pm

    C@t, you also have to wonder how much SfM has been meddling in the ads, expert that he thinks he is, and the ads are rushed, never good.

    Yes, it does seem to fit the bill of Labor criticising the Coalition for not having an ad campaign, so… SfM orders the minions to get an ad campaign together stat!

  16. I know SfM is supposed to stand for “Scotty from Marketing”, but everytime I see that acronym my mind immediately reads “Scott fucking Morrison.”

  17. Thanks GG, David, Asha and C@t.

    William, you’re a good man. My long-overdue donation is on its way, but I now take my leave of this blog.

  18. guytaur @ #3322 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 6:25 pm

    The advert is supposed to encourage vaccination. Not scare people from going to hospital.

    That’s fine. But I thought the prompt was to discuss the tweet from an ICU worker claiming that they’d never let that happen to someone?

    On that measure, I think they’re very overconfident. Unchecked covid overwhelms healthcare systems. Compassion, competence, professionalism; all praiseworthy, but past a certain point they make no difference.

  19. D&M,

    “ Do you think you could stop personally addressing derogatory posts to her?

    It would do a great service to harmony on the blog.”

    Couldn’t agree more, and this applies to all of us as most of us are already anxious and under extra stress.
    Thanks for posting this.

  20. Spray’s story checks out — his “snuff it out in a hurry” comment was made in reference to Perth.

    I’m not so sure of that …?

    The conversation started here…

    Spray @ #2141 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:34 pm

    Assantdj @ #2139 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:30 pm

    Around the time of the Northern beaches outbreak I was accused of wanting NSWs to have an outbreak. That wasn’t true but I was concerned that the way in which NSW’s was managing outbreaks was so far from gold standard that it would inevitably lead to an outbreak that seeded interstate. This has now happened and all states are now waiting to see how much damage has been done due to the hubris of one states premier.

    When do you think Sydney should have been locked down Assantdj?

    Then continued…

    Spray @ #2148 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:40 pm

    Assantdj @ #2144 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:37 pm

    Spray
    As soon as they knew Delta had escaped quarantine they should have imposed some restrictions including mask wearing as a minimum.

    But they didn’t, and Mr McGowan knew they didn’t. And he kept the border open, so was obviously comfortable with those settings.

    and continued…

    Spray @ #2156 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:50 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2154 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:46 pm

    Spray @ #1984 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:40 pm

    Assantdj @ #2144 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:37 pm

    Spray
    As soon as they knew Delta had escaped quarantine they should have imposed some restrictions including mask wearing as a minimum.

    But they didn’t, and Mr McGowan knew they didn’t. And he kept the border open, so was obviously comfortable with those settings.

    And you would probably have been the first to complain if he’d put the hard border back up, before Gladys had been given a chance to get on top of the outbreak with her ‘Gold Standard’ Track and Trace methodology.

    What I thought is irrelevant. It was McGowan’s decision. Unless he was denied access to some vital information by NSW Health, then it becomes his responsibility doesn’t it?

    In any case, I’m confident they’ll snuff it out in a hurry.

    Anyway, the earlier comment from Arthur was unacceptable.

  21. Spray don’t let someone bully you out. Just take a break and return when you feel better. It’s been a tough week for you. All the best Spray.

  22. Wishing death to PBers’ spouses would be a new low. Made even worse because the commenter recently lost their mother.

  23. On political advertising in general, one big difference I think we will see in 2021/22 compared to 2019 is that Labor have seriously gotten their shit together when it comes to social media.

  24. AL

    I hope so. It was advertising and marketing to the ignorant ( not a slur just factual comment) voters in marginal seats that decided the election.

  25. Having seen both the new ads I’m not fussed over either.

    Based on what we’ve seen in Sydney, people need to be shocked out of their complacency, and if witnessing a young woman struggling to breathe on oxygen does it, then good and well in my view.

  26. Which isn’t to say we should underestimate the Libs at all when it comes to advertising and political messaging in general. Scare campaigns are their bread and butter.

  27. William Bowe:

    Spray’s story checks out — his “snuff it out in a hurry” comment was made in reference to Perth. My inclination to assume this to have been an honest mistake by Arthur is complicated by his recent performance in fabricating a quote from Firefox to sustain an argument that had collapsed beneath his feet, much as he’s doing here. And now he’s saying he hopes Spray’s wife dies. Unless he can give me good cause not to, I’m going to ban him.

    Maybe there could be a rule change to require people to cite things properly, this takes longer (probably a good thing) but would include:
    a – ref the person (however, I sometimes elide the person making a comment with which I disagree, so as to avoid making it somewhat personal)
    b – ref the time (I rarely do this, but probably should)
    c – quote the text (I do this, via cut and paste at the time, which doesn’t catch subsequent edits)
    c1 – when quoting test that quotes others’, incorporate the quote structure (I do this, but it is tedious and I frequently stuff it up)
    d – link the original post (I’ve not work out how to do this efficiently without using a plugin)
    One way to make it more efficient would be to get the blog software to add a cut and pastable text to the top of each message, in the form:
    – Posted by XYZ at T, last edited at T1, link: URL
    This is more easy to cite than having to gather the info together. Also it would be good if cut and paste could preserve existing quote structure.

    Then there are hierarchical (tree like) blogs which automatically preserve the reply structure , as a somewhat radical alternative.

  28. William Bowesays:
    Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 6:16 pm

    Spray’s story checks out — his “snuff it out in a hurry” comment was made in reference to Perth. My inclination to assume this to have been an honest mistake by Arthur is complicated by his recent performance in fabricating a quote from Firefox to sustain an argument that had collapsed beneath his feet, much as he’s doing here. And now he’s saying he hopes Spray’s wife dies. Unless he can give me good cause not to, I’m going to ban him.

    …….

    Go for your life.

    Every person you have banned from this blog since Kevin Rudd was Prime Minister is still posting here.

    I will be first in a series of one, who doesn’t bother.

    Good night…

  29. Do we know if the “arms” ad is available in a range of languages or only English? It is supposedly aimed at the [ethnic communities] of SW Sydney. At the very least the ad should include a reference to the Translating and Interpretive Service (TIS) operated by Home Affairs. Obviously no co-ordination between Health and Home Affairs. An ad showing arms totally in English, aimed at people who may not understand the commentary, is about as useful as the proverbial.

    Of course we know that Scotty from Bunnings doesn’t hold a bilingual dictionary.

  30. Confessions
    Sydney ? A suggested slogan “Eliminate Covid-19 Or the Value of Your House Will Plummet” . That will get their undivided attention.

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