The fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which gives Scott Morrison his weakest results since the onset of COVID-19 – down six on approval to 51% and up four on disapproval to 40%, with his lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 48-28 to 46-28. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 41% and down one on disapproval to 35%. These numbers have been fed into the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, sharpening Morrison’s established downward trend.
Approval of the federal government’s response to COVID-19 has also deteriorated, with a nine point drop in the good rating since last month to 44% and a six point increase in poor to 30%. Among respondents in New South Wales, the good rating for the federal government has slumped from 62% to 44%, and that for the state government is down from 69% to 57%. A range of other questions are featured on matters relating to COVID-19, including findings that 36% would be willing to get the Pfizer vaccine but not AstraZeneca (5% said vice-versa); that 40% believe the vaccine rollout is being down efficiently, down from 43% a month ago (and 68% earlier in the year); and that 64% believe it is being done safely, down from 67%.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1099; full results can be viewed here.
Elsewhere, the Age/Herald yesterday published results aggregated from the three monthly Resolve Strategic polls which compared current voting intention with how respondents recalled having voted in 2019, and found women were more likely to have shifted away from the Coalition (down four points to 37%) than men (down one to 41%). On the subject of Resolve Strategic, Macquarie University academic Murray Goot casts a critical eye over its (and to a lesser extent Essential Research’s) attitudinal polling in Inside Story and takes aim at its refusal to join the Australian Polling Council and adhere to its transparency standards.
3,546 comments on “Essential Research leadership and COVID polling”
I’m actually finding it hard to understand what you’re going on about. Put forward an argument, please.
Cud Chewer @ #3246 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 5:01 pm
When I looked at the England UEFA Cup semi final win aftermath all I could see was an ideal melting pot for Delta Variant spread. Zero Social Distancing. Zero masks. An infinite number of people hugging, shouting and singing.
They had every right to but I’m sure the virus was just as pleased to see them.
A medico has protested that someone suffering so badly would never be left alone in that way. Not happy with image.
This was DimTim about a month ago when Victoria was locked down for 2 weeks and Brett Sutton smashed the delta outbreak.
This is representative of the Vic Libs class of 2021.
lizzie @ #3251 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 5:04 pm
Yes, that too. Not to mention there was no plastic Covid tent around the woman so all her heaving and heavy breathing wouldn’t transmit the virus to other people. Also I thought Covid patients were sedated so they could use all their energy to fight the virus?
Border bubble is still in place, so I’m apples.
Scotty’s slack arse crew probably just recycled some video from an anti smoking advert.
That’s all we need now, some self-proclaimed medical guru telling the public to “Ignore the ad, it’s over the top.”
There are people out there just looking for excuses not to get jabbed. Kibbitzing like that will only empower them.
That aside, there are many instances of a sudden onset of extremely acute symptoms. In minutes, not hours. How do the refusniks and the second guessers think people die from COVID? Peacefully in their sleep? Surrounded by loved ones? With flowers and a priest in attendance?
They either die in a coma with a tube down their gullet, or they die alone, terrified, gasping for oxygen as if they are drowning, just like in the ad.
Especially if there are thousands of cases all at once.
Is it correct that Ash Barty’s parents could not get permission to travel to the UK but Margaret Court could?
Does this video show a younger person?
Cud Chewer @ #3259 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 5:14 pm
How important are COVID vaccine efficacy rates
A surprising development of Australia’s efforts to combat the coronavirus pandemic has been a vaccine brand battle of sorts – AstraZeneca versus Pfizer.
It started with reports of efficacy rates from phase 3 clinical trials and came into full force as reports emerged over blood clot concerns.
But a pre-print study from the UK, recently uploaded to medRxiv, has found that real-world data suggest both Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines are equally effective, with no real difference in the level of protection offered.
The research involved 373,402 participants, and saw 1,610,562 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests conducted between 1 December and 3 April.
The results revealed the odds of being infected after two doses of either vaccine were reduced by 70% compared to unvaccinated individuals without evidence of prior infection, with no evidence that the benefits varied between the AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines.
With the two vaccines currently in circulation in Australia, Dr Kylie Quinn, Group Head and Research Fellow at RMIT’s School of Health and Biomedical Science, told newsGP the results are good news.
‘This is the kind of real-world data that we need to really understand how these vaccines perform,’ she said.
Is this article / opinion still current ??
Don’t be so dismissive. I used the word medico as general term because I wasn’t sure what hospital position the commenter held – ICU nurse, or general ward.
Yeah nah. That ad is going to have so many Tik Toks and memes made parodying it in the next 24 hours that it will soon lose its sting. The people that made that ad obviously don’t live in the social media millieu of the younger generation the ad should be and probably is, trying to target. The government would have been better to get the permission from a family who has someone in ICU or even an Emergency admission (lord knows they have patients on the TV every week on the show ‘Emergency’), and just filmed them. Reality beats play acting any day.
Lizzie, the point is that any kibbitzing and nit-picking like that will tend to reduce vaccination numbers, not increase them.
Can you think of a more stupid reason for not getting vaccinated than “I didn’t like the ad. Some doctor said it’d never happen like that.”
There is actually much more reaction to the tune of “Why insult us by telling us to get vaccinated when we can’t get an appointment?”
rhwombat @ #2845 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 8:32 am
I would and do listen to people such as you as I value your opinion very much higher than a few peanuts that have little idea what they’re talking about posting on an anonymous blog.
From my very limited knowledge of such things it has seemed that the medical profession was the same as everyone else, learning on the fly and please don’t take that the wrong way.
Sir (at least I assume you’re a sir) along with everyone else on the front line of this bloody thing, I dips me lid.
My take of reducing second dose times –
In comparing two scenarios, like reducing the vaccine second dose time vs not reducing, a single graph of what happened after doing something (the former) is relatively meaningless unless there is a comparable graph of what would have happened if you hadn’t done it.
It might have been a shit load worse if they (the UK) hadn’t reduced second dose times.
It’s hard to get comparable groups, because at any time, there are different circumstances of community viral loading and community behaviour.
I appreciate Norman Swann’s comments. I think he has a good grip on risk benefit, at a personal and community level, without political overlay.
I read that paper. I’d be waiting for the peer reviewed version to come out. They don’t make it clear what their protocol actually is. Whether PCR tests were administered routinely, or only after and as the result of having symptoms. They give figures for the reduction of risk (presumably of infection per se, not symptoms) after a single dose. But they don’t give figures for the reduction of risk after 2 doses, but then make a claim of “no evidence” – without citing the evidence.
Also, lets assume that their methodology was good. That they had a large number of people who were routinely taking PCR tests and the data isn’t skewed by PCR tests being taken only after symptoms. Lets also presume that there aren’t other confounding variables, like age distributions.
I’ll just point out that the way vaccines reduce spread of the virus is not so much prevention of infection (though this occurs). Rather its prevention of retransmission. If a vaccine is more effective at preventing symptomatic covid then its quite likely to be more effective at preventing retransmission.
The issue of wether the virus was spread by aerosols or not is interesting and I don’t think blame can be laid at anyone’s feet for not knowing the answer.
The question I want answered is why, knowing that you couldn’t rule out aerosol spread at that time, didn’t the committee that made the decisions recommend more stringent precautions, especially in health facilities, until the science was settled. Victoria had massive spread in hospitals,because the government advice was it didn’t need more effective masks. Hotel airflow was also not factored in because of the same advice.
I want our health advice to be risk averse until the science is settled, not the other way around.
Well, just tried to book in for a 2nd AZ dose on or after July 28 (first eligible date under ScoMo’s new “8 week” rule).
No appointments available at any time for anyone in my postcode.
Not 1st dose. Not 2nd. Zilch. No indictation of when, either.
No wonder Gladys has a panicky look on her face.
Arthur @ #3238 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 4:48 pm
Cheers Arthur, nice to see you again. I’m flattered to be awarded a medal, albeit only a bronze, but I feel I’m unworthy.
Can you point out what was “outrageously idiotic, moronic or overblown” about my comment? I would have thought that it turned out to be remarkably accurate.
Don’t forget, the 2021 census is taking place in a few weeks time. ABS is apparently taking precautions to prevent a repeat of the 2016 debacle but with the Morrison government running the show, who knows?
Excellent stuff: an ad that frightens the crap out of the anti-vaxxer fuckwits.
Ah.. don’t ya just love the US..
I thought the advert was fine. Does it matter if it isn’t super realistic? It’s an ad!
Sure, the message behind it is rather undermined by the fact that it’s pretty damn hard to get vaccinated right now, but I have no issue with the presentation of the ad itself.
Getting tired of these refs.
Hey Vic & C@t
I’m doing well. Fabulous granddaughter, now almost 6 mths. The child of my son & German DIL.
They’re so happy (so am I) and better still have moved from Melb to within 30km of moi!! So get to see them all quite often. And I’m about 10km from 2nd son and his wonderful woman who have bought a property nearby.
And, am repairing damage with siblings after the death of our parents. Taken a while.
Sounds like you two are doing well. And sounds, also, as if your kids have also grown up, bitten the bullet, and become responsible adults.
And to quote lizzie “All’s well that ends well”, or was that Shakespeare.
Bushfire Bill @ #3273 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 5:37 pm
My sister and b-i-l in Malua Bay have also had great difficulty in booking for any vaccine and so are still waiting for a 1st jab. It’s deplorable. I phoned my doctor on Friday to try and bring the date for my second jab forward – it’s been 9 weeks since my first – but was told there were no available slots until the date when I’m going anyway. That doesn’t bother me asd I’m in regional NSW, but it’s pointless the authorities saying go and get vaccinated if there’s no availability. And goodness knows when it will burst out of the piss weak Sydney cordon.
As boerwar would say, wtte – everything they touch, they fuck up.
The blame should be laid at the feet of those who proclaimed themselves to be real, bona fide experts, but still stated that aerosol transmission was impossible.
This is especially so where they said it as an excuse to make a cheap jibe at the politics, supposed Fox News viewing habits, supposed Alan Jones listening habits, supposed racial prejudice or mild nicotine addiction of people who disagreed with them.
Assantdj @ #3272 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 5:37 pm
* couldn’t rule out aerosol spread at that time *
Or in the future. The general lack of respect for mutations was an bad oversight.
Simon Katich @ #3279 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 5:45 pm
Swannies v Dogs? The umps still owe us from 2016. Deep down they know that.
Severe shortness of breath is considered to be the most distressing symptom, worse than severe pain which is much easier to treat.
The lady in the ad would be ventilated very soon as you can’t breath that fast for too long without getting tired.
If the ad frustrates the fuck out of people who try to book for a jab, so much the better.
Well, for starters, it ain’t snuffed out in a hurry yet, and it was a fortnight ago you said it would be.
In fact it’s getting bigger with no end in sight. Every day that we have hitherto unlogged cases reported from out in the community, add 3-4 weeks to “snuff out” day.
In that light, your confidence was pretty idiotic, moronic and overblown. And you are still demonstrating those traits.
I was wondering whether that level of breathing distress might trigger a heart attack.
Medicos united on this:
Unless there are no ventilators or staff to fit them. Even an hour of this, on a gurney in a dark ER corridor looks like it would be life threatening.
“Book your vaccination”
Because they can’t say “Go get vaccinated now”
Because Morrison didn’t procure enough vaccines.
boerwar @ #3288 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 5:57 pm
(I’m not Dio … but .. 2 pence)
It’s a negative spiral of increased workload in the face of declining oxygens.
My ICU and respiratory colleagues would not let someone suffer like that before they intervened. #COVID19nsw #medtwitter.
For your discussion on the advert.
No NRL or AFL in Sydney for the foreseeable future.
guytaur @ #3294 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 6:02 pm
It’s third world imagery. Even the oxygen supply (sort of intranasal) is wrong for her circumstances in our hospitals. She looks like she’s in a tent in outer nowhereville.
Vaccine rallying campaigns –
USA – Dolly Parton
UK – Elton John & Michael Caine
Germany – The Hoff
Australia – some arms
Bushfire Bill @ #3287 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 5:57 pm
I’ll forgive you the knee-jerk reaction BB, because you weren’t provided with the crucial piece of information. The comment that won me the award from Arthur was posted at 3:50pm on Sunday June 27. It specifically addressed the situation that had arisen in Perth two weeks ago.
Arthur knew this, I was just giving him a chance to set the record straight.
So you’ll appreciate my comment was in fact accurate, and undeserving of Arthur’s award.
Arthur’s a bad actor, acting in bad faith. He’s also highly unpleasant. Don’t be like Arthur.
Holdenhillbilly at 6:03 pm
My thanks for that ‘sad’ situation would be truly sincere 🙂
I concur with this sentiment. Morrison has put the ball in the public’s court.
All his and Hunt’s thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions, tens of millions, deal-breakers, queue jumping, gold standards and magnificent efforts – numbers and blather without end – mean nothing if there’s no syrup available to go in your arm, or appointments to put it there.
If Sydney gets it, good. But that only puts the regions’ heads on the chopping block. We’re next.
My first thought when unsuccessful just now was that I’d done something wrong. I think that’s how Morrison wants me to think.