Essential Research leadership and COVID polling

The shine continues to come off Scott Morrison’s COVID-boosted personal ratings, plus new evidence of a softening in support for the Coalition among women.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which gives Scott Morrison his weakest results since the onset of COVID-19 – down six on approval to 51% and up four on disapproval to 40%, with his lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 48-28 to 46-28. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 41% and down one on disapproval to 35%. These numbers have been fed into the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, sharpening Morrison’s established downward trend.

Approval of the federal government’s response to COVID-19 has also deteriorated, with a nine point drop in the good rating since last month to 44% and a six point increase in poor to 30%. Among respondents in New South Wales, the good rating for the federal government has slumped from 62% to 44%, and that for the state government is down from 69% to 57%. A range of other questions are featured on matters relating to COVID-19, including findings that 36% would be willing to get the Pfizer vaccine but not AstraZeneca (5% said vice-versa); that 40% believe the vaccine rollout is being down efficiently, down from 43% a month ago (and 68% earlier in the year); and that 64% believe it is being done safely, down from 67%.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1099; full results can be viewed here.

Elsewhere, the Age/Herald yesterday published results aggregated from the three monthly Resolve Strategic polls which compared current voting intention with how respondents recalled having voted in 2019, and found women were more likely to have shifted away from the Coalition (down four points to 37%) than men (down one to 41%). On the subject of Resolve Strategic, Macquarie University academic Murray Goot casts a critical eye over its (and to a lesser extent Essential Research’s) attitudinal polling in Inside Story and takes aim at its refusal to join the Australian Polling Council and adhere to its transparency standards.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,546 comments on “Essential Research leadership and COVID polling”

Comments Page 65 of 71
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  1. I don’t know how to link it but you can look at the live Guardian blog if you wish to have a look – it would appear that the Major-General wants to scare the hell out of Sydneysiders in order to increase the vaccination rate. The ad is only targeted at Sydney, so far. It’s rather disturbing.

  2. kezza

    “What’s going on?”

    Rational calculus of self interest is going on. Norman Swan would have figured out that he needs Pfizer as a 3rd dose. The sooner he gets his second AZ, the sooner he can get his Pfizer.

    He’s also made some assumptions about the odds of being able to get Pfizer by December/January (very good) and the odds of things going horribly tits up in NSW – substantial.

  4. A snappy but good comment from the Guardian blog.

    If you want to insure your rights at work…join an Union.
    If you want to insure your right to work….vote Labor.

  5. Someone has initiative.

    @IpseDixitCicero
    1h
    Sydney friends with kids, Home-schooling is tough but you can re brand media studies as screen time and if you put on closed captions it counts as reading as well. Also all cooking is science and minecraft is problem solving and geometry.

  6. Why have economists endorsed the policy of suppression with more enthusiasm than, for example, political and business leaders?

    this is a very good essay by john quggin (u. qld) & richard holden (unsw). i highly recommend it. short & succinct : 3 good reasons, clearly presented. very well worth the short time it takes to read it. -regards, a.v.

    1 – economists understand the concept of exponential growth.

    2 – economists understand counterfactuals — that is, the need to specify what would have happened under an alternative policy.

    3 – most importantly, economists understand about trade-offs.

    https://theconversation.com/why-most-economists-continue-to-back-lockdowns-164239

  9. Why have economists endorsed the policy of suppression with more enthusiasm than, for example, political and business leaders?

    Um, suppression is what Scotty and crew want and claim we are after. Boo hiss economists if that is what they are after. State Premiers have been going for the dreaded ‘E’ word, except of course Gladys.

  11. Lizzie, To use those tables you need to choose a likelihood of infection grouping. They have shown 3 such groupings. We don’t know what the Delta variant exposure risk is in NSW yet. Likely(?) between the second and third group shown.

    My younger daughter (22yo), who has strong biostatistics training, had her first A-V on Friday, with her diabetic friend (also 22yo). She did her own sums.

  15. C@tMomma:

    Cud Chewer:

    Who was it here who was spruiking the J+J vaccine?

    That was me, Cud. I’m very much a one and done kind of person. I believed that you would have greater compliance if it was only one shot as well.

    – One dose of J&J is much better than nothing – it is the only thing that can be deployed within a wave that is likely to have an effect during that wave, it’s effective three weeks after dosing if a I recall)
    – Almost certainly one dose of J&J plus an mRNA booster at six months (either the original VAX or an updated one) is better than anything currently in place (a few people have had one dose AZ plus PFizer outside trials, but one dose J+J plus one dose AZ is probably better)
    – J&J can be used continuously by states for hard to reach cohorts
    – But J&J can also be used by Commonwealth agents (e.g. Aspen) in responding to a wave – bet they wish they had it now…

  16. alfred

    “1 – economists understand the concept of exponential growth.

    2 – economists understand counterfactuals — that is, the need to specify what would have happened under an alternative policy.

    3 – most importantly, economists understand about trade-offs.”

    So do engineers 🙂

  17. Cud thank you for your reply. Makes sense so I’ll chase up my GP about the Pfizer in a month or so. I assume that will require a third shot (Pfizer) at some point.

  18. laughtong @ #3177 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 3:07 pm

    Comment on the Age/SMH live blog.

    Historians would be hard pressed to find a period in history where a government had failed the Australian people like the current federal government. This mob should hang its head in shame.

    The next newspoll is going to be very interesting

    No, it isn’t.

  19. I was wrong to recommend ‘household’ as alternative to ‘family’. A Lebanese explains.

    Dr Jos
    @redruby17

    You know “household” has different interpretations across cultures. A lot of the comms is very Anglo centric and that’s part of the problem with the comms #sydneylockdown
    ***

    I didn’t expect this tweet to resonate with so many. I focused my post on the cultural aspect because that’s what I’m familiar with. In the Lebanese culture the household comprises of people who regular come over and contribute, usually family and usually for children and elderly
    ***
    It could be food (always involves food), cleaning, caring, medicine giving (that’s a big one), driving to medical appointments

    It’s a roster between children, grandchildren, cousins, because no one person can do it all- household is the literal interpretation of this in Arabic
    ***

    Given the first cases were in Western Sydney, an area with a high population of my peeps, I would have expected comms and support to have accounted for this.

    And that is just one culture! There are so many and we need to appreciate and recognise more than just the cuisines

  21. On confusing messaging and lack of coordination

    @jeremypoxon tweets

    Federal government: we will not give you any money to stay home
    Premiers: if you leave your home we’ll sick the cops & media on you
    Media: Just comply with the orders, we’ll get through this

  22. lizzie

    When I studied linguistics, I was apprised that “I seen” and “I done” (my aversions, along with “arks” instead of “ask” among many, many others ) and all your pet aversions, was something to do with snobbery (i.e. I have a superior education) rather than communication, which is what language, after all, is about.

    Same with written language.

  23. https://twitter.com/VicGovDH/status/1414102690523607043
    VicGovDH @VicGovDH
    The Acting Chief Health Officer has declared that all of New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory will become a red zone under Victoria’s travel permit system at 11:59pm Sunday 11 July. See full statement:
    https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/statement-nsw-victoria-border-closure
    4:02 PM · Jul 11, 2021

    This means the VIC border is effectively closed to NSW and the ACT – except for VIC residents returning on a red zone permit for 14 days of quarantine, and for people with exemptions, exceptions or other valid permits (such as specified workers and cross-border residents).

  27. @ChaserInterns tweets

    The Australian government telling me to get vaccinated is like my mum telling me to get a real job.
    They’re not on offer.

  29. kezza2

    That’s a difficult one. There is nothing ‘wrong’ with the vernacular (as in, using a language native to a region), or adapting one’s accent to fit amongst the locals, but after wrestling my way through Chaucer and Shakespeare, I do appreciate the clarity of what I suppose could be called modern English, even though linguists insist that it is constantly changing. An editor’s life would be brain busting if it was carte blanche, puns are almost impossible.

  30. Just reading the ABC article about the request for tradies working multiple sites to get tested and it reports some tradies responding that this is impractical.
    During the Melbourne lock down didn’t the construction industry work with the unions to develop a system to reduce cross infection and keep the work sites open. Is this another example of NSW not being willing to use the Victorian expertise to resolve problems.

  31. lizzie

    It is constantly changing.

    Imagine my confusion when my older son, in primary school some 30 years ago, declared that he had “bet” someone else. What, gambling?

    Imagine my despair when I realised he was speaking about “defeating” someone else (at sport).

    Despite the best efforts of teachers, he, and his classmates, applied the rules of grammar. Past tense of beat = bet

    In this neck of the woods it stuck.

    Horrors.

  32. Assantdj,

    Yep.

    Just another example of the NSW Government refusing to take any lessons from Victoria’s lived experience.

  33. It was fairly obvious that Victoria were going to close the border tonight.
    Hopefully Victorians had heeded the warning of the past three or four days.

  36. The message is get AZ now.. Get AZ second dose at EIGHT WEEKS..

    Should the gap between AstraZeneca doses be reduced from 12 weeks so that people can get vaccinated faster?

    In June the UK made the decision to reduce the length of time between vaccine doses from 12 weeks to eight weeks because of the spread of the Delta variant. The UK’s chief medical officer, Dr Michael McBride, said this was “to help protect the community from the increasing prevalence of this variant and others that may arise”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/09/should-you-bring-forward-your-second-dose-of-astrazeneca-to-protect-against-the-delta-variant

  38. Lets take a look at the most outrageously idiotic, moronic, overblown rhetoric and prediction about the current NSW Covid disaster, from the following Berejiklian supporters just a fortnight ago.

    BRONZE MEDAL

    Spray:

    “In any case, I’m confident they’ll snuff it out in a hurry”.

    SILVER MEDAL

    Taylormade:

    “Lets just wait and see if it costs the lives of over 800 people”.

    GOLD! GOLD! GOLD! TO THIS NUMBWIT…

    meher baba:

    IF THE DELTA VARIANT IS TRULY AS CONTAGIOUS AS SOME ARE SUGGESTING.

    WE HAVE ONCE AGAIN SEEN STATE AND TERRITORY BORDERS SLAMMED SHUT ON THE BASIS OF A TINY HANDFUL OF CASES.

    NSW DID WELL TO HANG ON TO NORMALITY FOR AS LONG AS IT DID.

    I PREFER THE U.S. APPROACH.

    ………

    These are people inured to the Liberal Party. It is not possible to argue them away from their ignorance, nor is it sensible to attempt to convince them otherwise.

    They are a connivance of politics, perhaps a failure of progressive modernity, and a generational incapacity to enlighten an entire cohort to the ideal that its own interests are best served elsewhere.

  40. lizzie @ #3217 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 3:49 pm

    I was wrong to recommend ‘household’ as alternative to ‘family’. A Lebanese explains.

    Dr Jos
    @redruby17

    You know “household” has different interpretations across cultures. A lot of the comms is very Anglo centric and that’s part of the problem with the comms #sydneylockdown
    ***

    I didn’t expect this tweet to resonate with so many. I focused my post on the cultural aspect because that’s what I’m familiar with. In the Lebanese culture the household comprises of people who regular come over and contribute, usually family and usually for children and elderly
    ***
    It could be food (always involves food), cleaning, caring, medicine giving (that’s a big one), driving to medical appointments

    It’s a roster between children, grandchildren, cousins, because no one person can do it all- household is the literal interpretation of this in Arabic
    ***

    Given the first cases were in Western Sydney, an area with a high population of my peeps, I would have expected comms and support to have accounted for this.

    And that is just one culture! There are so many and we need to appreciate and recognise more than just the cuisines

    As I said earlier, NSW Health are finally starting to address this issue.

    What was really good was Patricia Karvelas had Lakemba NSW Labor MP, Jihad Dib on her show this week and she got him to send out a message in Arabic to all the Arabic speakers who are mainly located in SW Sydney. You wonder why no one else thought of doing this sooner.

  41. “In June the UK made the decision to reduce the length of time between vaccine doses from 12 weeks to eight weeks”

    Not working out too well..

  42. Thinking about it, a big graphic at the end of that ad saying:

    IT’S NOT JUST LIKE THE FLU

    or similar, would have pressed the message home further.

  47. Cud.. are you deliberately mendacious?
    The problem is with unvaccinated & those with single dose… the reason for the advise is the virulence of Delta & what may follow.
    The seems to be a solid group of bullshit artists on PB that always misrepresent articles & deal in 1/2 truths.

    A good promotion of them seem to be LNP apologists as well

  48. “When you combine it with a complete abandonment of other measures”

    There were still significant closures, restrictions and other measures when this curve started rising. its now going to get worse.

  50. Victoria @ #3065 Sunday, July 11th, 2021 – 4:42 pm

    It was fairly obvious that Victoria were going to close the border tonight.
    Hopefully Victorians had heeded the warning of the past three or four days.

    I am sure the media will still run stories saying “I couldn’t return cause … and now I am stuck”
    They have had plenty of warning a) not to travel to NSW and now b) get home asap

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