Roy Morgan has produced its second federal poll in a fortnight, and will hopefully make a regular habit of this going forward. The poll credits Labor with a bare lead of 50.5-49.5 (Morgan’s rounding being done to increments of half a percentage point), down from 51-49 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 41.5%, Labor is down half a point to 34.5%, the Greens are up half a point to 12% and One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%. State two-party breakdowns have the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales, 56-44 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, but with Labor leading 55-45 in Victoria, 52-48 in South Australia and 57-43 in Tasmania.
The poll was conducted by telephone and online surveys over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2782. Since we will presumably be hearing more from Morgan in future, it’s worth pointing out that the company is not a member of the Australian Polling Council, and thus does not observe the standards of transparency demanded of its code of conduct.
Other news:
• Peter Law of The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate for the key Perth seat of Swan will be Zaneta Mascarenhas, an engineer who runs an energy management consultancy. This comes after the state party’s Left-dominated administration committee blocked the nomination of the only other contender, former South Perth councillor Fiona Reid, on the grounds she had run as an independent candidate at the 2017 state election, to the displeasure of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. Mascarenhas is aligned with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union. The West’s report also relates that Tania Lawrence, a manager at Woodside who ran unsuccessfully for Labor in Darling Range at a state by-election in 2018, is the party’s only nominee in the seat of Hasluck.
• Pollster John Utting has told The West Australian that his recent polling leads him to expect that Labor will win Swan and possibly Pearce. He also believes that Labor will “probably” win the election off the back of wins in Chisholm, Boothby, Longman and potentially Leichhardt, Braddon and Bass, although they could potentially lose Eden-Monaro and Macquarie. Utting has polled extensively for Labor and provided polling for The West Australian five months out from the March state election that had the measure of the eventual result.
• Roxanne Fitzgerald of the ABC reports a complaint has been lodged with the Human Rights Commission accusing the Australian Electoral Commission of discrimination against indigenous voters, having failed to provide sufficient polling facilities to remote communities and directly enrol people who do not receive mail at a residential address. The complainants are Matthew Ryan, mayor of West Arnhem Regional Council, and Ross Mandi, chairman of Yalu Aboriginal Corporation in Galiwinku, with the support of the Maritime Union of Australia and the United Workers Union.
Been There @ #1978 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:34 pm
That is true, though I felt I needed to draw the truth out in this instance because I asked him straight up if he was ‘nath’ and he lied to my face and said he didn’t know who I was talking about. Now we know the truth he can be ignored. 🙂
The ACT chief minister was quoted a few days ago saying there were 60+ ways to enter ACT from NSW. Presumably that includes minor roads and bush tracks of which I know a few, where a 4WD would come in handy. There would also be access by rail and two points (civilian and RAAF/VIP) at Canberra airport. I wonder if he also counted paddling downstream on the Murrumbidgee and Molonglo rivers?
Spray @ #1984 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:40 pm
And you would probably have been the first to complain if he’d put the hard border back up, before Gladys had been given a chance to get on top of the outbreak with her ‘Gold Standard’ Track and Trace methodology.
I’m in the unpopular position of welcoming the extra frisson that Recon brings to this blog. There are worse than him out there.
C@tmomma @ #2154 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:46 pm
What I thought is irrelevant. It was McGowan’s decision. Unless he was denied access to some vital information by NSW Health, then it becomes his responsibility doesn’t it?
In any case, I’m confident they’ll snuff it out in a hurry.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-27/nationals-reshuffle-frontbench-cabinet-barnaby-joyce/100241380?
Well, this maytoo much for lucky little Bridget, IMO.
With precious few dedicated quarantine centres, coupled with relatively very low vaccination rates
(2.8% fully vaccinated; 23.91%, first dose), if this really does get out of hand, Morrison will be in more trouble than the early settlers, his carriage of the matters he’s responsible for predicated on the relatively low rates of infection and death.
He thought that being an island continent we’d be spared from what’s going on in the rest of the world, that we didn’t need whatever vaccines were available on the international market. A steady as you go approach.
But what he failed to take into account were C.19 variants and the consequential need for fit-for-purpose quarantine centres, not the poor substitute of hotels. This may yet not get out of hand, but if it does, it will be he who’ll be in the crosshairs.
Spray
I had a gig in the Northern Rivers at the start of the pandemic which included Maclean Hospital. Preparing for Covid there was interesting, I remember a meeting where the undertakers turned up.
Oliver’s at the turn off was OK
Taylormadesays:
Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 3:40 pm
“Lets just wait and see if it costs the lives of over 800 NSW citizens.”
……..
If Berejiklian’s recalcitrance costs lives outside of NSW, living hell shall take its reward.
Bystander
Thanks very much for the information.
I had heard that a small amount of alcohol at the wrong time could cause FASD, but never seen a study that confirmed it – not that I go looking.
Things are improving in Redfern / Waterloo. The most recent generation now in their teens do not seem to suffer as much FASD. They still have babies very young, but the grandmothers tend to keep a close eye on them.
It has been wonderful to see how much things have improved in the 18 years I have been here. Still a long way to go, but progress on these things takes time.
One thing I love is that one of the local primary schools has very small classes, and a large number of support teachers. However, anyone can go there, and doing pick-up I meet other professional people. The mix works well for all the kids.
The school has a large cohort of children who are taken there and picked up by carers from local centres. A big shout out to Weave here and The Factree. (If ever you asked for money for this places, they are well worth supporting.) They make sure the children all have uniforms, food and books. Lots of aboriginal history is taught as well as languages.
Gillespie back in the ministry.
They really have got to the bottom of the barrel
Oakeshott Country @ #2160 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:53 pm
Was that the Maclean undertaker whose christian name is Hope? Not sure why I always found that ironic.
There was a recent survey (which I have no intention of finding) on attitudes, and the finding were along the lines of –
* people from Melbourne consider themselves to be Melburnians first, Victorians second, and then Australians; the drift is inward looking.
* people from Sydney just don’t think like that; they just sort of are wherever they are; the drift is outward looking.
This rings somewhat true to me.
I never hear someone saying – I’m a Sydneysider, or I’m a New South Welshman. And the point was driven home when our neighbours, a gorgeous young couple, who arrived two years ago from Melbourne, were talking about their move. He was NT born, and wanted change, and was offered a post as Health Fitness Chief PooBah at a big well know company, and she said, laughing away at herself, that her first response was, seriously, that she couldn’t possibly go to Sydney because she was a Melbourne girl, ha ha ha.
They are mad about the place, and the point they make is just how little they knew about Sydney before they came. I think that cuts both ways.
I blame Morrison for any recent flaming of interstate rivalry. He is instinctively a nasty divisive piece of work.
Taylormade @ #1983 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:40 pm
Again ignoring that 670+ are down to Scott Morrison and Richard Colbeck’s woeful handling of Aged Care in Victoria.
I blame Morrison for any recent flaming of interstate rivalry. He is instinctively a nasty divisive piece of work.
No one can disagree with that. Not even Liberals!
Jonathan Pie on Matt Hancock:
https://youtu.be/NsyQ2Q3QMAw
Oakeshott Country,
Still prepared to defend Gladys Berejiklian’s handling of Covid-19 to the hilt?
lizziesays: Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 3:50 pm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-27/nationals-reshuffle-frontbench-cabinet-barnaby-joyce/100241380?
********************************
Darren Chester has been dumped from the Veterans Affairs portfolio, replaced by New South Wales MP Andrew Gee.
A bit sadly as he is our local member – and I have always likened him as a $2 Spiv more suited to selling used cars – but compared to BeetRooter and Bridget ‘Annie Oakley’ McKenzie he is an intellectual giant who sought out and who stood up for his electorates wishes for such things as same sex marriage etc
Spray
I have previously advocated that instead of states closing borders when outbreaks occur in other jurisdictions, it would make more sense for the state with the outbreak to lock in the population. Exemptions could then be made to leave based on risk level, quarantine availability and negative testing. This has never been an option because NSW has always refused to consider anything but living with the virus.
All returned travellers from NSW have been ordered to test on return since last week, McGowan has now instigated a short list of restrictions while they reassess. In my mind a proportionate and reasonable response given they know the source of this positive test.
NSW had numerous unlinked cases early in the week and did not go hard and fast. That is on the NSW government an no one else.
lizzie @ #1994 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:52 pm
Minister for Rorts would have sufficed.
Spray:
Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 3:47 pm
[‘I’m in the unpopular position of welcoming the extra frisson that Recon brings to this blog. There are worse than him out there.’]
I tend to agree with you but don’t understand why he posts as Recon and not nath – if indeed they are two of the same? I guess some think this is duplicitous. I take the view that if one objects to another poster, the simple remedies are to scroll past or use the block feature.
Spray @ #2155 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:17 pm
SHhhhhhhh! Dont encourage him.
Nah, a laser is ‘coherent’ .
Recon isn’t as nasty as Nath.
”
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 1:13 pm
It’s all happening …!!
casey briggs
@CaseyBriggs
·
11m
#BREAKING WA has a locally acquired (interstate) COVID case: A Perth woman, who had lunch at the Lyfe Cafe in Bondi while in Sydney.
She returned to Perth on June 20 and tested negative on her return.
She has since tested positive.
casey briggs
@CaseyBriggs
·
9m
#BREAKING The Perth and Peel region will have new restrictions for at least the next three days
* Mandatory masks indoors and on public transport
* AFL to be played without spectators
* The Chicken and Beer Festival is cancelled
”
Edo only SA, Tas and ACT don’t have a positive case as of now.
poroti @ #2175 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:39 pm
Liedar?
This has not aged well:
David Marler
@Qldaah
Four weeks earlier: “And we made sure that we had the systems in place to be able to weather whatever came our way so that we would never go into lockdown again.” #COVID19nsw #nswpol
https://twitter.com/i/status/1408892043623993345
‘citizen says:
Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 3:46 pm
The ACT chief minister was quoted a few days ago saying there were 60+ ways to enter ACT from NSW. Presumably that includes minor roads and bush tracks of which I know a few, where a 4WD would come in handy. There would also be access by rail and two points (civilian and RAAF/VIP) at Canberra airport. I wonder if he also counted paddling downstream on the Murrumbidgee and Molonglo rivers?’
_____________________________________________
That is a padded number. 95% of traffic comes by four roads from Cooma, Queanbeyan, Goulburn and Yass.
Assantdj @ #2172 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 4:07 pm
NSW took in a case from a Covid-affected country. They stuffed up the management of that case with an unmasked, unvaccinated limo driver. That’s on them.
WA took in a case from a Covid-affected state. They had all the required information, and their Premier makes a very loud virtue of their ability to manage borders. At that point, it’s on them.
Can’t have it both ways.
Spraysays:
Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 3:47 pm
I’m in the unpopular position of welcoming the extra frisson that Recon brings to this blog. There are worse than him out there.
……
That’s because you are the exact same breed of wanker he is.
Arthur @ #2185 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 4:30 pm
Cheers. You seem nice. May I ask what you’re basing that assessment on?
What a dirty squalid Federal Govt we have.
It’s a who’s who of corruption and incompetence – we all know the names.
Does this population have any skerrick of decency and self-respect to throw this trashbag of a Govt into the bin at the next election …?
Spray
wRONg ! They stuffed up by sitting on their arse for so long. Spending their time instead making snippy comments about how unlike all those overreacting Chicken Little States and how wonderful their systems were.
Malcolm Farr
@farrm51
That’ll teach Darren Chester for being principled and competent.
poroti @ #2179 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 4:33 pm
And that’s the truth ..!
Spray
Your missing the point, WA has reacted quickly even though they know the source of the infection. NSW have dithered and now they are in a fourteen day lockdown and probably longer. The elderly and the vulnerable are again at a heightened risk.
poroti @ #2188 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 4:33 pm
Yeah but that goes back to my original point Poroti. If you knew that, and everyone else knew that, why didn’t McGowan close the border at that point?
phoenixRED @ #1932 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 4:05 pm
The Veteran community wanted him to stay. That in its self says heaps.
The great retail politician ignores it to get some revenge.
“Lets just wait and see if it costs the lives of over 800 NSW citizens.”
_________________________________
Given the ongoing incompetence of the Commonwealth in the Aged Care area for which it has responsibility, there is every chance this could happen again.
Assantdj @ #2191 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 4:34 pm
No, I’m not missing the point, but I might not be making my point very clearly. I’m saying that each state makes their own choices, then deals with the situation they’re faced with. I mean it’s not as if Mark McGowan doesn’t know how to close a border.
Simon Katich @ #1957 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 3:09 pm
You just wait till it becomes hot and dry again, you’ll be missing the weather you have now. 😀
Spraysays:
Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 4:32 pm
Cheers. You seem nice. May I ask what you’re basing that assessment on?
……
I have read everything he has ever written here.
Ditto you.
The Veteran community wanted him to stay. That in its self says heaps.
The great retail politician ignores it to get some revenge.
______________________________
Because for these corrupt bastards it’s only ever about the National Party and never the National Interest.
Spray,
I presume you were referring to my comment. Dr Chant is in an unenviable position and I am impressed with her demeanour. However, there remains the perrenial problem of public servants being close to politicians, providing the advice that they want to hear.
What a coincidence that the CMO’s in each State and our Federal CMO provide advice that aligns to the politics of the government of the day. The NSW Government beat the drum over their ability to weather any storm without battening down the hatches. Plenty of quotes and video grabs posted here and elsewhere. If we are “following the health advice to the letter”, how convenient that the health advice in NSW has a greater risk appetite than other States and territories. We are all human and that is simply human behaviour.
As for the specific instance of Dr Chant tripping up over the source of the Avalon cluster, the sentence followed one in which she mentioned a transport driver being associated with the Berala cluster. People can judge for themselves. https://vimeo.com/567988450/4153ae6a5c (40:00 onwards). Why aren’t the earliest known cases mentioned for Avalon and they are for the Bondi and Berala clusters; two transport drivers. In the Bondi case, they still do not know where the driver got it from either. Apparently no relevant airline staff swabs have come back positive. I am simply pointing out the inconsistency.
I must say, you have had an atypically busy day on here. I appreciate that you are frustrated with the situation, as are we all.
Edit: spelling