Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Labor edges back into the lead on two-party preferred, but very little change overall from the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor returning to a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred after a tied result last time, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). Changes on leadership ratings are likewise very modest, with Scott Morrison up a point on approval to 55% and down two on disapproval to 41%, while Anthony Albanese is up two to 40% and down two to 45%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is barely changed at 53-33, compared with 53-32 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1513.

UPDATE (29/6): The Australian has published further results from the poll relating to COVID-19, including a fourth go at the question of how the Prime Minister has handled the situation. This series records a pattern of decline since his debut result of 85% good and 14% poor in April last year, to a current showing of 61% good (down nine over the last two months) and 36% bad (up nine points). Satisfaction with the government’s handling of the vaccine rollout is down three to 50% compared with two months ago, with dissatisfied up three to 46%. A new question on whether Labor would have done better turns up a neutral result, with 25% saying better, 36% no difference and 27% worse.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,469 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  3. Rex Douglas @ #2220 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 5:46 pm

    citizen @ #2218 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 5:40 pm

    ACT position on giving AZ at vaccination hubs is in line with NSW – hubs are not the appropriate place for in-depth discussions on the risks for under 60s.

    Presumably all states and territories are taking a similar position?

    That’s fair enough.

    When I went to get my jab it was all explained. Risk v benefits and even had a 4 page leaflet given to me to read first. I listened to what the nurse said and moi just said “lets do this”. This was all done in a hub.
    Some protection is better than none.

  8. Vic,

    I agree. But, it’s not only GPs. It’s the Chemists saying the same thing.

    When your core vote is bagging you, you know you’re in trouble.

  11. Cud Chewer @ #2218 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 5:41 pm

    Spray @5:01pm

    Regarding WA tests.. which day is this?
    Hasn’t shown up here: https://www.covid19data.com.au/testing

    From this news article: (I know, what was I thinking).

    https://www.9news.com.au/national/western-australia-records-one-new-covid-community-case-on-second-day-of-lockdown/4fe481d0-52a2-49cd-9d9d-ef7c0226190d?ref=BP_RSS_ninenews_3_western-australia-records-one-new-local-case-following-record-te_300621


  13. Sceptic says:
    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 5:39 pm

    ….
    With an average eight blood-clot cases per million in the UK, the risk of blood clots from the AstraZeneca vaccine is much lower than the risks of blood clot from an oral contraceptive pill (400 per million in Australia), pregnancy (2000 per million) or severe COVID-19 itself (about 31% of people admitted to the ICU, or 310,000 per million ).

    Finally someone puts it in context. The risk of dying from AstraZeneca is about the same as falling out of bed and dying and we don’t see people sleeping on the floor.

    I have never seen so much bullshit and the medical profession are largely to blame.

  14. If Morrison and his cronies were competent , Australians would be close to over 70% of being vaccinated by now , and meeting the target for the original mid October 2021

  15. The vaccine rort is but a story away, very believable, even without known facts. The Morrison LNP government have a history, the list lengthy, with very little resentment expressed in the polling.
    Morrison’s latest political manoeuvres, bunker down, look at the politics, then make another announcement.
    Perhaps some cartoons depicting Morrison hiding in the chook house will appear?
    Whatever, the lucky country has some interesting characters masquerading as leaders.
    The vaccine rort indeed!

  17. If you were a government that was subsequently voted out, and it was proven that you had pork barreled vaccines would you be charged with murder for any deaths that had occurred as a result?
    Crazy thought I know, but a political decision that resulted in foreseeable deaths to your opposition voters?
    Now I know someone will mention Pink bats except that was the subcontractors and it was not pork barreling.
    Probably a stupid thought – I’m cooking dinner and catching up with todays thread, so be kind.

  19. Late Riser

    Genuine question (I once worked in low level nuclear waste storage design), how do the French manage the low level waste, and the high level stuff too for that matter?

    Very good question. I remember visiting ANSTO some decades ago, and they were working on something I think they called “syncrock”, which would render inert the low level nuclear waste.

    Just did a quick search on Google.

    Apparently France generates more nuclear waste than any other country except the US.

    A 2014 BBC article explores the problems with safely storing this waste in the long-term:

    France generates around three quarters of its electricity from nuclear power but despite decades of activity it is no nearer a solution to the perils of nuclear waste.

    Many countries agree the hazardous material – some of it at temperatures of 90C – has to be disposed of deep below ground where it can be isolated from all living things for tens of thousands of years whilst the radiation slowly reduces.

    Despite advanced schemes in Finland, not a single country worldwide has an operational underground repository.

    “What we did first was to demonstrate that safety can be achieved through a repository in this clay formation,” says Gerald Ouzounian, the head of international affairs for Andra, told Costing the Earth on BBC Radio 4.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26425674

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) gave France a tick for its program in 2020:

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has released the final report from its January 2018 mission to France to review radioactive waste management and decommissioning in the country. The review team said it had been “impressed with the nature and implementation of the French national programme”.
    https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/IAEA-commends-French-nuclear-waste-programme

    However, the sooner the world can get off the nuclear “crutch” to help preventing CO_2 emissions the better.

    Whatever the problem with the “waste that goes to landfill produced by the solar industry” as Susan Ley puts it, it pales into insignificance when dealing with even low-level nuclear waste.

  21. @AlboMp tweets

    Scott Morrison had two jobs this year: the rollout and quarantine.

    He has failed at both.

    26 leaks from hotel quarantine.

    12 million people under lockdown.

    Priority Australians, including aged care workers and frontline workers still aren’t fully vaccinated.

    (1/7)

    With 4.7% of Australians fully vaccinated, we are last in the OECD.

    Australia, when you were asked to do your bit, you stepped up.

    You put on masks. You isolated. You shut down your business. You avoided social contact.

    The Prime Minister is failing in his two jobs.

    (2/7)

    On Monday he gave a late night press conference and issued confusing advice about AstraZeneca.

    He should leave medical advice to the medical experts.

    And he should stop blaming state premiers for his own failings.

    (3/7)
    He should be focussed squarely and solely on his job – fixing the vaccine rollout and fixing quarantine.

    Labor is offering solutions.

    Labor has a plan.

    Firstly, we would speed up the vaccine rollout.

    We would build fit for purpose quarantine facilities.

    (4/7)
    We would have an effective public information campaign to encourage everyone to get the jab.

    And we would manufacture mRNA vaccines in Australia.

    (5/7)

    Countries that have vaccinated their populations are opening up despite new strains spreading – because the vaccines are working.

    That’s the whole point. Vaccinations are our pathway out of this lockdown misery.

    (6/7)

    Australia will have to rely on lockdowns and restrictions until Scott Morrison gets his act together.

    And if the Prime Minister doesn’t want to do his job, he should make way for someone who will.

    I am ready.

    (7/7)

  22. The lib/nats corrupt propaganda media units in defending Morrison over the States/Territories CMO , caused more damage to people getting the vaccine

  23. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 6:00 pm
    And that is why people like Jonathan Green give me the shits.

    Ditto. The guy is just so insufferably smug. One of those, I’m more cluey than the rest of you, insiders.
    °

    Chris Ulhmann tore into Anastasia P and Steven Miles for saying that they will not offer AZ in QLD government hubs. Absolutely tore into them after quoting ATAGI. But no mention of what Gladys said.

    I told you guys earlier that AP and SM walked straight into Morrison ambush.

  24. What the medicos are saying boils down to this:

    If we give you the AZ vaccine and you are under 40 we think we are more likely to harm you than any likelihood of harm you might suffer from catching Covid19, given the current spread of the virus in the Australian population.

    I just don’t get why people are questioning this fairly simple reasoning. If you were a doctor would you recommend the more harmful course of action to a patient?

  26. ”
    Cud Chewersays:
    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 6:07 pm
    Sceptic

    The thing about commuter carparks is that they’re politically popular, but often a waste of money. In most places all a commuter carpark does is it allows someone who would have formerly used a bus to get to the train station to instead use a car. The car parking spaces that represent new users (of the train) are in a minority.

    There are of course exceptions. Train stations that happen to be somewhere where land is cheap and you can build a big parking station relatively cost effectively. Holsworthy station for instance. There’s probably a few stations on the Central Coast line. But not Woy Woy, where building new parking stations is expensive.
    ”

    People go to Holsworthy Railway stn from as far as Cecil Hills, which is about 15 kms away.

  30. Underperforming superannuation funds will be exposed from Thursday, when the government launches its online YourSuper tool that will allow people to easily rank and compare superannuation funds.
    The tool, which will be accessible through MyGov and the Australian Tax Office’s website, will enable Australians to rank default MySuper products by their annual performance over a six-year period and the fees charged to members.
    From September, the tool will also explicitly label low-quality products as “underperforming”, based on an annual performance test conducted by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, and rank funds by their annual performance over an eight-year period.
    Industry experts have previously likened the prospect of receiving the underperformer label as a “death sentence” for affected funds, since they will be required to communicate this fact to their members and direct them to the YourSuper tool.

  32. timbo @ #2264 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 6:39 pm

    If you were a government that was subsequently voted out, and it was proven that you had pork barreled vaccines would you be charged with murder for any deaths that had occurred as a result?
    Crazy thought I know, but a political decision that resulted in foreseeable deaths to your opposition voters?
    Now I know someone will mention Pink bats except that was the subcontractors and it was not pork barreling.
    Probably a stupid thought – I’m cooking dinner and catching up with todays thread, so be kind.

    timbo,
    It will likely only be found out when the Cabinet Papers for Morrison are released because information secrecy is a feature not a bug of his government and there’s no way to find out now about that.

  34. It’s all very well and good for some of you to praise the NZ vaccine rollout, but last time I looked they had delivered only 20 doses of vaccine per 100 inhabitants, as opposed to our level of closer to 30.

    My impression is that they had an extremely slow start, having made the mistake of over-complicating the process of prioritising which types of people would get doses before which other types. They’ve sorted that now and, with a stronger emphasis on Pfizer with its shorter interval between doses, are starting to shoot ahead of us in terms of getting people fully vaccinated: but are still way behind us on the number of first doses.

    What the US and, in particular, the UK have demonstrated with their vaccine rollouts is that the best approach is to tear up the guidelines around priority groups, set up as many vaccine outlets as you can and, as Gordon Ramsay might put it, “move the f***ing vaccine out to the f***ing customers as quickly as you can.”

  36. For NSW resident / PB’s
    So finally complain abut QR code “check out ” not being used… the reason.. the NSW Services App is poorly designed.

    The App goes to sleep when phone locks & on waking the check-out screen is gone & you have to renavigate to check-out.. or is just me?

  37. Had to laugh watching Chant lamenting that people might check in with the app but don’t check out.

    Yeah, no shit Sherlock, it’s too hard. You have to remember to do it, or as I found out today when I remembered and opened the app to check out, the app had thrown me out to the front page and I couldn’t find how to get back to the checked in venue in order to check out!

    And the requirement for supermarkets and other venues to display the contact register is long overdue. I was shocked when I got here and found only select venues had the contact register, not even supermarkets which almost everyone goes to at least once a week.

  38. mundo: “Looks like newly minted Dean Winter will be stepping up earlier than expected.”

    Gee I hope not. He’s a nice enough bloke and did a reasonable job as the Mayor of the municipality in which I reside, but he’s not exactly Mr Charisma.

  39. Sceptic @ #2286 Wednesday, June 30th, 2021 – 7:09 pm

    For NSW resident / PB’s
    So finally complain abut QR code “check out ” not being used… the reason.. the NSW Services App is poorly designed.

    The App goes to sleep when phone locks & on waking the check-out screen is gone & you have to renavigate to check-out.. or is just me?

    Snap! No it isn’t just you, this happened to me today, the first time I’d remembered to actually check out.

  40. The contact tracing around the NSW Government situation is fraught. The confounder is vaccination status. But no-one wants to talk about it.

  43. Had Jeannette Young taken long covid & potential long term damage from Covid into account when she gave her half arsed rant this morning?

  45. If O’Byrne doesn’t survive (and, on the face of it, he’s got a bit of a struggle ahead of him), I would suspect that Ella Haddad might be a contender. The problem confronting the likes of Winter and Shane Broad (who ran against O’Byrne) is that the Left well and truly has the numbers.

  47. Sceptic says:
    Wednesday, June 30, 2021 at 7:14 pm
    Had Jeannette Young taken long covid & potential long term damage from Covid into account when she gave her half arsed rant this morning?
    ———–

    What rant , she was giving advice
    Morrison who is not a medical officer or doctor gave advice which could make matters worst and also potential long term damage

  48. meher baba

    We’re both slow, but:
    – They are currently delivering on what was promised and planned.
    – Our government is not.

    (and what is it with the Right and their fascination with New Zealand anyway?)

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