Roy Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor

Another pollster with another tight voting intention result, plus preselection latest from federal seats in Perth.

Roy Morgan has produced its second federal poll in a fortnight, and will hopefully make a regular habit of this going forward. The poll credits Labor with a bare lead of 50.5-49.5 (Morgan’s rounding being done to increments of half a percentage point), down from 51-49 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 41.5%, Labor is down half a point to 34.5%, the Greens are up half a point to 12% and One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%. State two-party breakdowns have the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales, 56-44 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, but with Labor leading 55-45 in Victoria, 52-48 in South Australia and 57-43 in Tasmania.

The poll was conducted by telephone and online surveys over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2782. Since we will presumably be hearing more from Morgan in future, it’s worth pointing out that the company is not a member of the Australian Polling Council, and thus does not observe the standards of transparency demanded of its code of conduct.

Other news:

• Peter Law of The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate for the key Perth seat of Swan will be Zaneta Mascarenhas, an engineer who runs an energy management consultancy. This comes after the state party’s Left-dominated administration committee blocked the nomination of the only other contender, former South Perth councillor Fiona Reid, on the grounds she had run as an independent candidate at the 2017 state election, to the displeasure of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. Mascarenhas is aligned with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union. The West’s report also relates that Tania Lawrence, a manager at Woodside who ran unsuccessfully for Labor in Darling Range at a state by-election in 2018, is the party’s only nominee in the seat of Hasluck.

• Pollster John Utting has told The West Australian that his recent polling leads him to expect that Labor will win Swan and possibly Pearce. He also believes that Labor will “probably” win the election off the back of wins in Chisholm, Boothby, Longman and potentially Leichhardt, Braddon and Bass, although they could potentially lose Eden-Monaro and Macquarie. Utting has polled extensively for Labor and provided polling for The West Australian five months out from the March state election that had the measure of the eventual result.

• Roxanne Fitzgerald of the ABC reports a complaint has been lodged with the Human Rights Commission accusing the Australian Electoral Commission of discrimination against indigenous voters, having failed to provide sufficient polling facilities to remote communities and directly enrol people who do not receive mail at a residential address. The complainants are Matthew Ryan, mayor of West Arnhem Regional Council, and Ross Mandi, chairman of Yalu Aboriginal Corporation in Galiwinku, with the support of the Maritime Union of Australia and the United Workers Union.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,513 comments on “Roy Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 51
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  1. Bill Bowtell is not an expert. He is chosen because he likes to put it up people which is fine if that is what one enjoys.

    The weird thing about Q&A was juxtaposing a public health issue with issues relating to people on the spectrum.

  2. Sydneysiders ‘sitting ducks’ if COVID-19 lockdown not enforced

    Sydneysiders have been described as “sitting ducks” as Gladys Berejiklian is warned by one health expert to “face up to reality” and put the city in lockdown or risk a greater COVID-19 outbreak.

    Strategic Health Consultant Professor Bill Bowtell said Sydney had adopted many restrictions associated with a lockdown – like travel restriction and mask wearing – but that health authorities needed to go further while the vaccination uptake was so low.

    “We should face up to reality. The longer we avoid going into lockdown, the longer we will take to come out of it,” Professor Bowtell told Today.

    “You can call it a lockdown or a lockout. People in Great Sydney can’t leave the area yet this has now spread to Melbourne and is clearly spreading around the Greater metropolitan area.

    https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/sydney/sydneysiders-sitting-ducks-if-covid-19-lockdown-not-enforced/ar-AALpf0F?ocid=msedgntp

  3. C@tmomma,
    Bridget Archer – ex-mayor of George Town – so gets votes from there.
    Connected to major land owner down here – so gets the Liberal vote
    apart from that we don’t hear much from her but then we didn’t hear much from Ross Hart when he was the member. At that stage the local paper was run by Fairfax/Costello and the Mercury in Hobart is a Murdoch tabloid.
    Personally, I think the seat will swing back to Labor but Labor need to be out and about highlighting issues.
    Most people (OK, those I talk with) support the closed borders but weren’t aware that Morrison was pushing for open borders as the media highlighted the fight with Qld, Vic and WA, ignoring that Tas and SA also closed.

  5. Thanks for that, Taz. Do you know whether Labor will go with Ross Hart again or choose someone new to try and take Bridget Archer down?

  6. The restrictions will affect Greater Sydney, the Central Coast, Blue Mountains, Wollongong and Shellharbour, effective from 4pm Wednesday for one week.

    We’ve been caught up in the dragnet. 😐

  7. Shellbell
    The weird thing about Q&A was juxtaposing a public health issue with issues relating to people on the spectrum.

    Happens on PB all the time.

  11. C@tmomma,
    I don’t know.
    I suspect he will be putting his name forward again as he nominated for the Legislative Council in the recent Tasmanian election (did better than expected but I didn’t think Labor would win that seat) but did not nominate for the House of Assembly (where he would have had a better chance of being elected [in my opinion]). My musing was that it left him open to nominate for Bass when the Federal election is called.

  12. lizzie

    HH certainly took advantage of the remote setting to blow up the show.

    It was altogether, however, unwatchable TV.

  13. Wayne Swan
    @SwannyQLD
    ·
    17m
    Morrisons hotel quarantine debacle goes from incompetent to farce.
    12 months late he’s finally discovered the he owns land at Pinkenba beside Brisbane airport.#auspol

  14. Looks like Morrison is gearing up for an election.
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has confirmed a 1000-bed hotel quarantine facility will be constructed on the Commonwealth-owned land in Mickleham in Melbourne’s north. It will open when the first 500 beds are available. More @AAPNewswire
    and
    The prime minister, Scott Morrison, is offering for the federal government to pay for the 1,000-bed facility on the site of the Damascus Barracks at Pinkenba. (Guardian)

  16. On Q & A and someone with some skin in the game on the topics at hand and something to contribute regarding legislation changes

    Senator Jordon Steele-John @Jordonsteele
    So disappointed w @QandA tonight. They’re about to have an NDIS focused episode w only one disabled person on the panel.
    Putting aside that they failed to invite the only disabled mp, they’ve also missed a massive opportunity to platform many other advocates
    #auspoI #qanda

    Senator Jordon Steele-John @Jordonsteele
    · 23 Jun
    Under changes to the Private Health Insurance Act that were rushed through the @AuSenate guillotine last night I would not be considered a disabled person because I’m not yet on the #NDIS Man facepalming

    This is clearly a flawed definition #AusPol

    Senator Jordon Steele-John @Jordonsteele
    To be clear on how this happened, the Labor party didn’t support our amendments that would have fixed the flaw in this bill. Instead, they sided with the government to pass the bill unamended which is really disappointing #AusPol

  17. Nikki has some professional pride. Well done.

    Veteran political commentator Niki Savva has quit her column for the Australian after editors told her she had to share a page with the paper’s new recruit Sky News host Peta Credlin.

    Credlin, a former chief of staff to Tony Abbott, wanted her column to appear on a Thursday so it didn’t clash with her weekend column for the News Corp tabloids.

    But Savva’s column, which she has written for 10 years, is published on Thursdays and she didn’t want to move to another day or appear on the same day.

  19. Gladys’ response to the Delta situation in NSW appears to be a classic example of ‘too little, too late’. Frightening stuff. Hope I’m wrong.

    Eric Topol@EricTopol · 23m
    As the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) becomes dominant throughout the world, there are 2 patterns emerging:
    —Countries w/ low vaccination rates are seeing both case and fatality rates increase
    —Countries w/ high vaccination rate: some case increase and minimal to no fatality increase

  21. ”Prime Minister Scott Morrison has confirmed a 1000-bed hotel quarantine facility will be constructed on the Commonwealth-owned land in Mickleham in Melbourne’s north.”

    Well, I suppose, better a year late than never.

    I am hoping that in this context “confirmed” isn’t the same as “announced”.

  22. Has anybody got any tips for the NSW V Qld on Sunday?
    I’m thinking it will be 70-6 (not the match – the Covid numbers)…

    P.S. NSW will be assisted as they will have been allowed to carry in 40 points from last time but that’s ok because they will have 50 more stored up for the following game…

  23. Has anyone else been confused by the mixed messages on the Vic quarantine facility? Avalon, no Mickleham, no definitely Avalon. Now it’s suddenly Mickleham.

  25. What a bizarre AM (abc radio) this morning.

    Some expert at a Singapore Uni telling us we can’t keep going on like this, we have to learn to live with the virus, we can’t wait for everyone to be vaccinated.

    Then another article – something about how bad lockdowns are to our health – domestic violence etc.

    Then an article telling us how bad the vaccine rollout is in Thailand (we should be thankful?).

    I skipped in and out. Did I miss anything? Like maybe a disclaimer that the producer is applying for a job at the PMO?

  26. Don’t know about gastro but I expect that it would be way down also.

    … welllll …. there was a report a few months ago that there had been a significant increase in gastro outbreaks in childcare. The suspicion was that there had been a lot of emphasis on using hand sanitizer and that this had led to less soap-and-water hand washing, where some of the usual gastro bugs are better tackled with soap.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-04/coronavirus-hygiene-hasnt-stopped-gastro-at-childcare/13118824

    “Alcohol-based sanitisers are not effective against many of the bugs that cause gastro in childcare,” Dr Bolam said.

    “Hand-washing is the bulwark. We must not treat things like masks and hand sanitisers as if they magically mean we won’t spread a bug.”

  28. sQomo is panicking after reading internal polling showing the simple messaging is working.

    You had 2 jobs
    1. You are responsible for quarantine – all failures are Morrison’s failures
    2. You are responsible for vaccinations – all failures are Morrison’s failures

    Hence this backflip on defence land, which Potato Dutton lied about, in Victoria – and ham fistedly in Qld and WA. The latter 2 smell of panic.

    And the late and poorly thought through and communicated to effectively ditch AZ, and switch to mRNA doses – which can’t be delivered in bulk till later in the year leaving the population at high risk of the raging mutants.

    So failure at the 2 jobs, and panicked scrambling to make things up, and get things wrong.

    No wonder the internal Liberal polling would be looking dire.

  29. Simon Katich @ #NaN Friday, June 25th, 2021 – 9:20 am

    What a bizarre AM (abc radio) this morning.

    Some expert at a Singapore Uni telling us we can’t keep going on like this, we have to learn to live with the virus, we can’t wait for everyone to be vaccinated.

    Then another article – something about how bad lockdowns are to our health – domestic violence etc.

    Then an article telling us how bad the vaccine rollout is in Thailand (we should be thankful?).

    I skipped in and out. Did I miss anything? Like maybe a disclaimer that the producer is applying for a job at the PMO?

    All supplied to AM by the PMO you mean? It’s obviously the next meme they want people to be sucked in with. Their business backers are losing money doncha know!?!

  32. ”
    Asha Leusays:
    Friday, June 25, 2021 at 8:25 am
    Cat:

    From what I’ve heard, Entsch was planning to retire but has since changed his mind. Given how marginal Leichhardt is, its traditional status as a bellwether, and Labor’s recent success in the corresponding state electorates, I imagine ensuring the seat doesn’t fall played a part in his decision.

    EDIT: Of course, Entsch already retired in 2007, which was also the one time Labor has won the seat since 1993, before coming back three years later.
    ”

    It is like the federal seat of Kalgoorlie till Graeme Campbell was ALP member.
    As long as Entah is the member ALP cannot win Leichhardt.

  33. “HH certainly took advantage of the remote setting to blow up the show.

    It was altogether, however, unwatchable TV.”

    She blew up the show because McDonald let her. Even the lies at the end about Morrison’s UK trip were left unchallenged. We all know now that the side jaunt was two weeks in the making and that “it was on the way to the airport” was a lie because it was in the opposite direction.

  34. Taylormade @ #17 Friday, June 25th, 2021 – 8:00 am

    The Age
    Local emergency workers in the Dandenongs say the urgent delivery of generators to storm-hit homes last weekend was delayed by 24 hours in freezing temperatures after authorities failed to supply batteries and fuel, then made emergency services workers wait until television crews arrived.
    ________________
    What’s the go with waiting for the TV crews ?
    Spin, spin,spin from the Victorian public service.
    I am sick of it.

    The “authorities” would be the private companies that run electricity distribution in Victoria, no?

    A situation presumably gifted to the state by previous Liberal governments.

  36. Robyn
    @robynbryant33
    ·
    13m
    It’s always lovely to wake up to Steven Miles. Telling Australia that Queensland sent a 15 page letter to the Federal Government & were told not enough detail & the letter they received overnight was one page and the only detail was the address of the proposed quarantine facility

  37. ajm @ #NaN Friday, June 25th, 2021 – 9:31 am

    Taylormade @ #17 Friday, June 25th, 2021 – 8:00 am

    The Age
    Local emergency workers in the Dandenongs say the urgent delivery of generators to storm-hit homes last weekend was delayed by 24 hours in freezing temperatures after authorities failed to supply batteries and fuel, then made emergency services workers wait until television crews arrived.
    ________________
    What’s the go with waiting for the TV crews ?
    Spin, spin,spin from the Victorian public service.
    I am sick of it.

    The “authorities” would be the private companies that run electricity distribution in Victoria, no?

    A situation presumably gifted to the state by previous Liberal governments.

    He was trying to blame the bureaucrats, who are all lefties, or so the Liberal propaganda goes. 🙄

  38. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Friday, June 25, 2021 at 6:40 am
    Leichardt!?! I thought Warren Entsch had decided to be carried out in a box and never retire?… Because he knows what will happen when he does.
    ”

    If ex-PM like Hughes can be member of HOR till he was into his 90s then I don’t see what is wrong with Entsch not want to retire especially when ALP don’t know how to defeat him.

  40. Slow cap to Morrison and co. Well done.

    PRGuy
    @PRGuy17
    ·
    20m
    Scott Morrison finally concedes Victoria was right: purpose-built quarantine is the way to go. Took him something like 25 hotel quarantine breaches right around Australia to finally get it. A PM that takes 18 months to make simple, no brainer decisions. Aren’t we lucky. #auspol

  42. AM is probably right. With the hammock dweller gravy swillers running the joint we probably do have to let the virus loose. 15mths to develop proper quarantine. 15mnths to have a proper system of transporting travellers to quarantine. NSw has had 15mthns to get a proper QR code system. And….. we should have 40million pfizer half rolled out. Isnt that the story? I honestly dont know how you balance that without being partisan. Sure, you could point out the good things Morrison has done. But you would then need to point our he generally got pushed into those or realistically didnt have a choice. They were no brainers. But when it came to the real governing…. well, he sat on his arse and spun like a bottom heavy top.

  43. That’s a good line that Labor should use to counter the, ‘you need to learn to live with the virus’ from the Coalition…’you mean you need to learn to die with the virus’.

  44. Meanwhile ACA had story that the limo driver was not vaccinated due to blood clotting history and didnt want AZ vaccine

    He said there was no effort by employer to enforce that he have any vaccine.

    Also he advised that he did not work for three days before being tested, when he was found to be positive.
    He believes he caught covid at the cafe he attended daily in vaucluse.

  45. ”
    Asha Leusays:
    Friday, June 25, 2021 at 8:26 am
    From William’s post:

    but with Labor leading… 57-43 in Tasmania.

    Poor sample, or is something going on down there I was unaware of?
    ”

    Morgan poll was never upto the mark when compared to other pollsters. Anyway after 2019 federal election, I take any poll with table spoon full of salt.

  46. Vic, the story from Gladys was that the limo driver had received one dose of the vaccine already. So who’s not telling the truth here?

  47. Also there is some confusion regarding the returned traveller from Sydney to Melbourne.
    He apparently returned from a green zone
    But he attended a function which has been suggested was the super spreader event.
    Which even if NSW health did not contact him, his family would have told him early in the piece that it was covid central.
    Was this in fact the event after all?
    Could be another event that NSW weren’t yet aware of.
    We shall know more today.

  48. C@t

    The limo driver recalls being at cafe and sitting very close to someone who was splattering and coughing.
    He said he always wore mask and gloves for his job.
    Also was it a partitioned limo which separates driver from passenger?

  49. Rachael Robb@RachaelRobb · 7m
    Replying to @jamesmfitzpatri @Raf_Epstein and @AndreasKullman4
    I visited this dry cleaner last week and can confirm QR codes, front door open, staff in masks and screen up at counter. Crossed fingers it will be ok

  50. We shall know more today.

    It’ll take some heavy translating tho. Wading through the word pools was hard work yesterday.

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