Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A favourable reaction to the budget yields no benefit to the Coalition on voting intention, according to the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports Labor has retained its 51-49 lead in the post-budget poll, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (unchanged), Labor 36% (down two), Greens 12% (up two) and One Nation 2% (down one). Scott Morrison is down a point on approval to 58% and up one on disapproval to 38%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down one to 39% and up three to 46%, which equals his worst ever net rating from Newspoll. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed at 55-30, compared with 56-30 last time.

Regarding the budget, the poll found 44% of respondents expecting it would be good for the economy compared with 15% for bad. On the question of the its personal impact, the better off and worse off responses both scored 19%, with a strikingly high 62% unable to say. There was presumably also a question on whether the opposition would have done a better job, as per Newspoll’s long-established practice — I’ll add that and any further detail as it becomes available.

UPDATE: The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1506. No result yet for the “would the opposition have done better” question, probably because The Australian is saving it for tomorrow. Out of 34 post-budget Newspolls going back to 1988, this is the eighth best result for impact on personal finances and the sixth best for impact on the economy.

The chart below plots the one series against the other, with the present result shown in red. This is near the trendline, suggesting no particular tendency for the budget’s economic impact to be seen as more positive (as tended to be the case in the Howard goverment’s early budgets) than the personal impact (which rated higher in the last three budgets), relative to the favourable reception for the budget overall.

The best received budgets mostly came during the golden age of government revenue from 2004 to 2008: the best of all, on both personal and economic impact, was the one that preceded the Howard government’s defeat in 2007.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

587 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 9 of 12
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  1. boerwar @ #391 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 5:29 pm

    The notion that China would publicly acknowledge the existence of a biological warfare laboratory (not the Wuhan lab, of course) is most entertaining.

    The notion that any country would do so – even among those that we know have them, such as the USA and Russia – is even more entertaining.

  4. Scotty wearing an Indigenous design tee-shirt saying “Deadly Choice” has so many layers of irony.

    Warning: lots of Scotty photos here.
    AAP Photos
    @aap_photos
    Pix: Scott Morrison Brisbane Visit https://bit.ly/3uVysPz

  5. “davesays:
    Monday, May 17, 2021 at 4:23 pm
    The World Economy Is Suddenly Running Low on Everything”

    Really?

    My question is why did Bloomberg, a billionaire, published this article.? Why is his organization creating this fear?

  6. Frednx
    That article is right the tram network is in need of an overall with plenty of potential for new routes. The rail loop might be okay but wont be a complete loop with passengers needing to change trains and the trams can fill in many of the gaps rail cannot.

  8. I hope you all picked up Warren Entsch’s reason for not making use of funding for social housing in his electorate: “I don’t hold a building permit.”

    Yes, he really said that and Albo was happy to repeat it!

  9. Lizzie are you saying Albo said and meant the same thing?

    “I don’t hold a building permit.”

    Yes, he really said that and Albo was happy to repeat it!

  10. “Mexicanbeemersays:
    Monday, May 17, 2021 at 5:53 pm
    Ven
    Bloomberg would be basing the story off data.”

    Remember Elizabeth Warren epic thrashing of Bloomberg in one of the debates just before one of the primaries, where she said she was not talking about Trump but the one in that debate and for which Bloomberg had no answer, which lead to downward spiral of Bloomberg ratings and crashing out of primaries. After that it is very hard for me to believe him.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/04/mike-bloomberg-out-60-second-attack-elizabeth-warren-destroyed-campaign


  12. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Monday, May 17, 2021 at 5:52 pm

    Frednx
    That article is right the tram network is in need of an overall with plenty of potential for new routes. The rail loop might be okay but wont be a complete loop with passengers needing to change trains and the trams can fill in many of the gaps rail cannot.

    It seem to me that the trams also pretty much go through the CBD and they suffer form the same issue as the train system, not enough slots.

    I know more about it on the electrical side. In the CDB The fault levels are now crazy with the trams getting so big and so many in a segment.

    I think the outer loop is going to be complete. I think the whinge was there was going to be platform changes to get around the loop, but if I am going to go east I am not going to take the outer loop, I will only use it for north west locations.

  14. Opening up for overseas travel appears beyond KneeJerk Promo to cope with – the clamour for a plan is growing. Perhaps the Lazy Liberal could check in with his UK counterpart who have announced this..

    ‘After a months-long ban on international trips, travel will resume to destinations around the world under a traffic light system. Countries and territories will be divided into three categories based on their COVID-19 risk; green, amber or red. The categories they are placed in will dictate whether English holidaymakers will need to quarantine when they return to the UK, or if the destinations should not be visited except in urgent circumstances. According to the UK transport secretary, Grant Shapps, the green list was based on the countries or territories where infection rates are low and vaccination rates are high.

    There are 12 countries and territories on the initial green list, which will be in effecting starting on May 17. They include Portugal (with the Azores and Madeira); Israel; Australia; New Zealand; Singapore; Gibraltar; Brunei; Faroe Islands; Falkland Islands; South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands; and St Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha. After the official reopening, the list will be reviewed every three weeks, and if there are concerns about the safety of any of the places on the list, the government can withdraw the destination’s green status.

    Shapps said in an announcement that the initial list is limited and cautious. Some popular destinations for British travelers—like Greece and Spain—did not make the cut, despite their own efforts to increase tourism. Some of the green list countries also have their own restrictions in place that will prevent English travelers from visiting, including Australia and New Zealand.

    While English travelers will not need to quarantine upon arrival when they return from green list countries, they will need to take COVID-19 tests before they leave, as well as a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test on or before day two of their arrival back to England. While many may be excited at the opportunity for travel, Shapps noted that as the list can change, travelers should not book any holidays unless there is a refund option, and those who travel should anticipate longer delays at airports.

    https://www.lonelyplanet.com/articles/uk-travel-green-list?utm_term=weekly&utm_medium=email&utm_source=lpemail&utm_campaign=enl-20210517

  15. Ven
    Maybe so but Bloomberg is a data driven media company and because of who its customers are it has to be accurate.

  22. Margin for error is always a factor for betting markets.

    I have seen plenty of odds on shots go down.

    Didn’t the bookies pay out onLabor at the last Election.

  23. P1 wrote:

    The racism inherent in your comments was pointed out to you by William. Is there a higher authority on this blog?

    The “Appeal To Authority” argument you employ is the last refuge of the intellectually bereft, P1.

    I finally checked your links and found no censure message from William. It was dishonest of you to include him in this.

    Most critical comments were from you, with a few from that Past Paragon Of PB, nath, and one or two quibbling about precisely what “wet markets” were, and whether tigers are sold in them (hint: yes, they are).

    Devastating!

    But it WAS April 2020 and there was still room for doubt about whether the virus would take off. Well, it did, and we know which city it came from, so I guess I was on the money…

    … except for that CovidSafe App Morrison promoted. I admit defeat. I’ve deleted it long ago.

    It didn’t work but I still believe was a good idea, at least in concept: an automated system for detecting proximity of uninfected people to infected people. No human input required.

    Yes, I now accept Morrison’s App failed (with elements of self-fulfilling prophecy in it on the part of refusniks who kept take-up numbers too low, apart from now established Bluetooth technical issues), but in its place we got the various state-based apps, where Check-In involves an overt act of scanning a QR code by individual customers or patrons of a business. I have used them in NSW and SA.

    These apps have apparently been quite successful in aiding contact tracing. Any of the “Privacy” refusniks regarding Morrison’s app that have since used the various state government apps have their own consciences and cognitive dissonance to deal with.

    I can report my own usage has not resulted in black vans parked across the street sprouting antennae, visits from ASIO, the state police, the ATO or from debt collectors who illegally bought the attendance data under the table from Greg Hunt. Life remains sleepy here in Snoozeville.

  26. There is $9billion in ‘decisions taken and not announced’ in the Budget Papers.

    This apparently is set aside for the Liberal Rorts Re-Election Fund, for which applications will be invited by maaaates, marginal Liberal held electorate shills, and dirty industry rent seekers.

  29. US park celebrating the pro-slavery Confederacy faces a reckoning:
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/14/a-park-celebrating-the-pro-slavery-confederacy-faces-a-reckoning

    Stone Mountain Park, Georgia, United States – A state-owned park that hosts the world’s largest monument to the Confederacy – the failed rebellion by pro-slavery states that led to the American Civil War – is considering sweeping changes amid criticism and plummeting revenue that may have resulted from the controversy.

    Central to calls for change is a gigantic carving on the north face of Stone Mountain, about 25km (15.5 miles) northeast of Atlanta.

    ——————-

    America still living in the past and will never move to the future.

    America is and will always be more dangerous than any Asian country put together.

  30. Speaking of betting markets, SportsBet have a book on Upper Hunter with some juicy offerings..

    Upper Hunter By-Election

    Settled on the winning party of the 2021 by-election in Upper Hunter. Others may be added. All in betting. Results via NSWEC/ABC Projections. Void if by-election doesn’t occur by 1 December 2021.

    National 1.25
    Labor 6.50
    Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 6.50
    One Nation 15.00
    Independent (Steve Reynolds) 34.00
    Independent (Tracey Norman) 45.0
    Greens 51.00
    Independent (Kate Fraser) 51.00
    Liberal Democrats 67.00

  32. ,i> Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, May 17, 2021 at 6:30 pm
    centrebet has the libs at 1.65 and labor at 2.10

    with less than 12 months to go…….

    Sounds about right…maybe….some Bayesian values reflected in the numbers. The LNP are not short enough/Labor not long enough in my estimation.

  34. BW

    That’s what vaccines are for. 🙂

    BB’s post is about those infected.
    There are a lot of people already living with HIV/AIDS and Cancer who would appreciate getting off chemicals and being in remission.

    Of course a media report doesn’t mean much as MediaWatch has had to repeatedly point out.

    Edit: I just realised you could be referring to Zerlo. Sorry.

  35. Jayne Hrdlicka was the one booed at the Australian Open mens final and is evidence that women are not automatically kind caring compassionate leaders.

  39. Scotty wearing an Indigenous design tee-shirt saying “Deadly Choice” has so many layers of irony.

    I don’t think he does subtlety, but funny his minders didn’t pick it up. Like being photographed under an “Exit” sign or the “Reject” part of “Reject Shop”.

    And yes, more Scotty photos than I could ever want.

  42. This presumably derives from Keane’s article saying that the Cth had tried to prevent Bret Walker SC from appearing in the appeal which was wrong.

    “ Before the court hearing Labor’s three Canberra-based MPs and senator Katy Gallagher released a statement objecting to the treatment of Collaery and Witness K.

    They called on the government to “explain why it is in the public interest to proceed with these prosecutions”.

    “From trying to effectively prevent Mr Collaery from choosing his own legal counsel to closed courts and delaying tactics, the Morrison government has gone to absurd lengths to pursue these prosecutions,” they said.

  43. Cud chewer,

    If you have evidence that supports your statement “The evidence is in. Wuhan was not the origin/epicentre of the virus. It had been spreading in various places for months, including outside China before the first Wuhan patients.”, would you care to share?

    My understanding is that there evidence of COVID-19 in sewerage samples in Italy and Brazil in November 2019 prior to the earliest officially diagnosed patient in Wuhan. However, there is secondary evidence of an increase in COVID-19 symptom search requests and hospital use in Wuhan in August 2019. See

    https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42669767

    Quite a clever study but definitely secondary evidence with inferences required. There is Italian data showing a spike in COVID-19 search requests dating to October 2019 here:

    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0300891620980796

    So, I am not sure if the origin story is settled just yet. But I am open to new evidence of course!

  44. shellbell

    There’s the detail and it is important to get the detail right.

    Then there is the thing beyond the significance of the detail, which is pure bastardy towards Collaery himself. They have already essentially destroyed his livelihood.
    Then there is the truly deep thing about the Dili spying and the consequent negotiations over Timor Gap oil and gas: cui bono originally, and cui bono now.
    There are some scorpions under the rocks.

    EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.

  45. ‘Griff says:
    Monday, May 17, 2021 at 7:29 pm

    …

    But I am open to new evidence of course!’
    ————————————–
    The China 2019 Covid samples are old evidence to the Chinese. They would be new evidence for the rest of the world.

  46. Not getting your carparks at railway stations in Melbourne.
    As mundo would say, I’m shocked I tells you shocked!

  47. boerwar @ #329 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 2:54 pm

    ‘Cud Chewer says:
    Monday, May 17, 2021 at 2:46 pm

    bw

    You mean the “comrades” who have found virus in Us, Italian and other samples going back to at least Oct 10?

    The virus was circulating outside of China back then.’

    My point

    6. We do know that China failed to close down the wild meats sections of the wet markets when they knew the wet markets were a time bomb.

    Are the wet markets in Italy and England (eg Ridley Road Market) (and many other European countries) for such animals as wild boar, deer and bush meat from all over (particularly cane rats) also a time bomb? Of course they are! Are they policed? Hardly at all. Ridley market stinks to high heaven. I saw a pile of cane rats about a metre high. I have seen bats and guinea pigs in Naples markets, plus vast numbers of wild boar.

  50. boerwar @ #444 Monday, May 17th, 2021 – 7:31 pm

    shellbell

    There’s the detail and it is important to get the detail right.

    Then there is the thing beyond the significance of the detail, which is pure bastardy towards Collaery himself. They have already essentially destroyed his livelihood.
    Then there is the truly deep thing about the Dili spying and the consequent negotiations over Timor Gap oil and gas: cui bono originally, and cui bono now.
    There are some scorpions under the rocks.

    EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.

    IF.ONLY.LABOR.COULD.MAKE.THIS.CASE.

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