Miscellany: election timing, Victorian ALP turmoil, compulsory super

Renewed uncertainty over federal election timing, courts involved in a Victorian ALP preselection, and a poll finding overwhelming support for higher super contributions.

Below this post is a live commentary thread on local and regional elections in the United Kingdom from regular guest contributor Adrian Beaumont; I myself am overdue for new posts on late counting in Tasmania and the looming Upper Hunter by-election on May 22, so stay tuned for those over the next few days. Other than that:

• A report by Max Maddison of The Australian suggests the pendulum may be swinging back to a federal election sooner rather than later, due to “the turmoil of the start of the year dissipating and the rate of vaccinations slowly increasing”. This is said to be reflected in the New South Wales Liberal Party’s commencement of preselection proceedings this week for 13 seats, for which nominations will close on May 21.

The Age reports that Victoria’s Supreme Court will today consider a last-minute bid by ten unions to prevent the Labor national executive from choosing a candidate for the new federal seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe. The national executive had been expected to vote today to endorse former state secretary Sam Rae as part of a deal between elements of Rae’s Right faction, notably federal front-bencher Richard Marles, and the Socialist Left. This freezes out the rival Right forces associated with Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who favour the rival claim of state minister Natalie Hutchins, who is also invoking the cause of affirmative action. The legal action seeks to establish that the federal party organisation had acted improperly in taking over the state branch in response to the Adem Somyurek branch-stacking scandal.

• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods has published results from a survey of 3459 respondents on “attitudes towards and experiences of retirement and social security income during the COVID-recession and initial recovery”. Among other things, it finds 55.0% support for an increase in compulsory superannuation from 9.5% to 12% as per current legislation, with 20.8% thinking it should be lifted even higher. Only 20.4% said it should remain at the current level, and only 3.8% believed it should be lowered or eliminated altogether.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,708 comments on “Miscellany: election timing, Victorian ALP turmoil, compulsory super”

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  1. Spray @ #195 Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 2:40 pm

    Simon Katich @ #193 Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 3:07 pm

    Really good no new cases in NSW. But….. testing seems rather low to be getting confident of anything. Is there just a lag here for the number of tests shown? Are we getting results of tests performed without these tests showing on todays number of tests performed?

    First answer….Yes.
    Second answer (after decoding)….Yes.

    Same as it ever was, as David Byrne might have said.

    I aint looking where your hand was.

  2. a r @ #200 Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 2:48 pm

    Simon Katich @ #194 Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 3:09 pm

    Most Australians in India are probably able to access some quality health care either in India or nearby.

    What’s your basis for this claim?

    What sort of quality healthcare is available to them if/when India’s healthcare system is overwhelmed trying to cope with ~400k new cases every day? What sort of healthcare are they entitled to without massive out of pocket costs if they’re not considered citizens/residents of India? Why would a nearby country take them in when Australia will not?

    Yeah, I am not solid on it. From experience, there is a two tiered health system and, generally, those with money can get prioritised or get out to somewhere that can prioritise them. So I am assuming that most (certainly not all) Australians in India would have access to money (if desperate) that would be beyond the reach of many Indians.

    I thought there is plenty of evidence of Australians able to leave to another country. Sri Lanka, Maldives. Money talks, maybe other countries in the area too.

    I said “low?”. How about “lowish?”?

  3. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 3:24 pm

    “Blairites have successfully killed the Labour Party. Job very well done.”

    There is another thread but this has nothing to do with the Blairites. It is the Remainer Anti-Semitic Corbynistas who destroyed the UK Labor Party. Blairites know how to win elections.

  4. Bucephalus says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 3:16 pm
    All major coastal cities in Australia should have terminals for Floating Storage and Regasification Units in order to take advantage of LNG. WA in particular needs it as a backup in case the pipelines from the NW are compromised.

    Gas will be largely phased out as an energy source in the domestic economy. The LNP are funding gas coz they can no longer fund coal. The political costs of pouring money into dodo projects is too high, even for the LNP. Even so, the energy system is being transformed. Perhaps the less they do the better. They are utterly incompetent. Better that they make a mess of gas than they make a mess of renewables.

  5. And so I’m unable to see my friends and colleagues in Sydney for another week.

    Fuck you Gladys for your don’t give a shits about quarantine.

  6. Simon Katich @ #204 Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 3:26 pm

    I said “low?”. How about “lowish?”?

    Perhaps “lowish but increasing as the healthcare system becomes more overwhelmed”? Don’t think I’d want to see the inside of even the priciest private hospital in India right about now. Or over the coming few months, at least.

  7. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/07/hartlepool-byelection-result-labour-starmer-conservatives

    The political expression of the industrial working class is fading away, in the same way that the class that created the voice has also faded away. The elites that have usually ruled in England are firmly back the saddle now. UK Labour won a majority from Opposition three times in the 20th century. Quite likely, their best days are in the past. They barely exist in Scotland, where Labour first came into existence. They’re now little more than a rump based around London.

    The First World War destroyed the Liberal Party. Brexit appears to have destroyed Labour. The Tories, historically the instrument of the English ruling class, are fully in control once more.

  8. ” It is the Remainer Anti-Semitic Corbynistas who destroyed the UK Labor Party. Blairites know how to win elections.”

    Bucephalus is correct. Alas.

  9. “And so I’m unable to see my friends and colleagues in Sydney for another week.”

    When did this happen? I haven’t seen any travel based restrictions.

  10. N
    Better that they make a mess of gas than they make a mess of renewables.?

    Just like they did to the NBN!.

  11. a r @ #209 Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 3:09 pm

    Simon Katich @ #204 Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 3:26 pm

    I said “low?”. How about “lowish?”?

    Perhaps “lowish but increasing as the healthcare system becomes more overwhelmed”? Don’t think I’d want to see the inside of even the priciest private hospital in India right about now. Or over the coming few months, at least.

    I wouldnt be travelling there atm for some cheap, streetside dentistry.

    But I know both Thailand and India are/were the preferred places to travel to for whitie expats in the general SE Asia region for health care.

  12. Australia seems to be the last bastion of the working class (even that is fading), the rich and powerful stolen UK and America.

  13. N says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 3:44 pm

    “Brexit appears to have destroyed Labour.”

    UK Labour destroyed itself by abandoning its working class base. Hartlepool is a classic example where they selected a Remainer Candidate for this byelection. Why would they do that? Because they have almost no connection with the working class base anymore. They sneer at Brexit, pride in the UK and England and so much more. They openly call them racists for being worried about illegal immigration and loss of jobs to floods of legal immigrants. They say men can have babies, all whites are racists and if you disagree you are a bigot, gamon, etc.

  14. “Hope you enjoy your bungee jump.”

    What the fuck are you talking about? I asked a simple question. Are there travel restrictions or not? The NSW Covid site says no but obviously you know better.

  15. Bucephalus

    Blairites won elections sixteen years ago and earlier-a Blairite Labour party simply cannot win anything nowadays.

  16. Cud Chewer

    Fuck you Gladys for your don’t give a shits about quarantine.

    Some possible consolation, Gladys has done a bit of dummy spitting over NSW being ‘cancelled’ by Jacinda Ardern and we know how much notice Ardern will be taking of Gladys don’t we 🙂

  17. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3131906/india-can-learn-chinas-experience-fighting-covid-19-says-top

    India could learn from China’s disease control playbook in fighting its Covid-19 surge, according to US presidential medical adviser Anthony Fauci.

    Fauci offered advice on how to tackle the “very difficult and desperate situation”, during an interview with The Indian Express published on Saturday.

    India has become the pandemic’s epicentre, reaching a record high of 400,000 new daily cases on Saturday,
    with health care systems overwhelmed and patients struggling for access to care and supplies.

    Fauci said building makeshift hospitals, like those used in Wuhan last year when the central Chinese city became the first epicentre of the pandemic, could be an emergency stopgap measure.

    “What the Chinese did when they had a crisis, you might recall, literally, within a few days they built these emergency units that served as hospitals,” he said.

  18. Ryan Spencer says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 4:00 pm

    “A Blairite Labour party simply cannot win anything nowadays.”

    The current one that was overrun by Corbynistas isn’t even close.

    I have a couple of suggestions of how to improve their chances but fortunately they would ignore me.

  19. https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/may/07/clive-palmer-and-kerry-stokes-paper-rapped-for-spreading-covid-vaccine-misinformation

    he mining magnate Clive Palmer has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on newspaper ads attacking his opponents and making false claims about Australia’s Covid-19 vaccination program.

    The Australian Press Council, which monitors newspaper standards, has so far been silent about this potentially dangerous spreading of misinformation.

    But now the Independent Media Council, a press-council equivalent for Kerry Stokes’ stable of newspapers, has stepped up and criticised the West Australian, upholding a complaint against it for publishing a full-page advertisement by Palmer criticising the safety and legality of the Covid vaccination program, which contained factual inaccuracies it deemed unfair and “serious errors”, because they were “likely to undermine public confidence” in the program.

  20. Bucephalus says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 3:55 pm
    N says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 3:44 pm

    “Brexit appears to have destroyed Labour.”

    UK Labour destroyed itself by abandoning its working class base. Hartlepool is a classic example where they selected a Remainer Candidate for this byelection. Why would they do that? Because they have almost no connection with the working class base anymore. They sneer at Brexit, pride in the UK and England and so much more.

    Thatcher set out to gut the Victorian/Edwardian industrial economy that provided the ballast for UK Labour. She succeeded. The communities that depended on and constituted that economy barely exist now. The political order has caught up with the Thatcher’s counter-revolution. The counter-revolutionaries are in control again in England and their reach is being extended and consolidated.

    England has always been a class-ridden society….a society run for and by the elites in one form or another. For about 35 years in the second half of the 20th century it seemed another way was possible for England. But that phase is over now…well and truly over. The working people of England no longer have a political organ that speaks strongly for them. This has been the usual state of play in England. They have been divided and they have been defeated. The splitters won.

  21. The Blairites changed Labour from being a party for workers into a party for corporates.

    A strategic and well executed political kill.

  22. I see that UK Labour is eating itself, being imprisoned in the “tax to pay for things” trap.
    Whilst the Tories are having a good laugh as they throw money around like confetti with out a care about how they pay for it, and they a being awarded for it.
    Again the conservative can spend as much as they like, as long as they don’t tax the rich more.

  23. The real problem for the left is its disconnected from the public.

    The left is good at seeing a problem but useless at finding solutions because its default position is more welfare and more taxes instead of fixing the problem and the left has a terrible habit of letting people down because it talks the talk but can’t walk the walk.

  24. Player One says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 4:17 pm
    N @ #206 Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 3:32 pm

    Gas will be largely phased out as an energy source in the domestic economy. The LNP are funding gas coz they can no longer fund coal.

    I hate to be the one to tell you this, but so is Labor.

    It may have escaped your notice, but Labor are not in power federally. They are not funding anything. Unless they achieve office they will not have the luxury of choice. Where they are in power (in the States), they’re funding renewables.

    When or if Labor do come to power federally, they will will almost certainly face a hostile Senate. They will likely never get to enact their platform. They will be torn to pieces like nearly every other Federal Labor government.

    But feel free. Post more mis-truths.

  25. Kakuru @ #NaN Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 3:47 pm

    ” It is the Remainer Anti-Semitic Corbynistas who destroyed the UK Labor Party. Blairites know how to win elections.”

    Bucephalus is correct. Alas.

    Yeah. Tony Blair just had to reappear with longish hair and he took the world by storm again. He knows innately what works with the general public.

  26. Rex
    When the left attacks corporations it is attacking the people that work in those corporations.

    The idea of boss vs worker is outdated.

  27. Nicko @ #NaN Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 4:20 pm

    I see that UK Labour is eating itself, being imprisoned in the “tax to pay for things” trap.
    Whilst the Tories are having a good laugh as they throw money around like confetti with out a care about how they pay for it, and they a being awarded for it.
    Again the conservative can spend as much as they like, as long as they don’t tax the rich more.

    You left out the bit where they intimidate the Central Bank into keeping interest rates low so as to keep the asset price merry-go-round almost spinning off its axis. Not to mention wages so low that inflation is hard-pressed to break out of the stranglehold Tories have placed on it.

  28. Tony Blair was a political success story until his career exploded thanks to the weapons of mass destruction nonsense.

    I also quite liked Gordon Brown, although he wasn’t exactly charismatic.

    I’m not sure that there’s anyone in Labour right now with anything like the electability of either Blair or Brown. Starmer is arguably the best of a bad lot. The Corbyn movement was absurd, and was taking the party into irrelevance.

    Labour is lucky that Cameron’s career was finished by Brexit. Otherwise, he might have remained PM for decades. Johnson is a bozo, and could conceivably be beaten.

  29. Distribution of GDP across economic sectors in the United Kingdom 2019. In 2019, agriculture contributed around 0.61 percent to the United Kingdom’s GDP, 17.41 percent came from the manufacturing industry, and 71.26 percent from the services sector.

    The organised industrial working class that founded and populated UK Labour is no longer “organised”. No longer as numerous, it’s now also very much more diffuse and disaggregated. The political culture is following the adaptation of the economy and the labour market.

    Political affiliations are being subsumed by all kinds of alternative affiliations. This is not the first time such a thing has occurred. The UK, the locus of the original industrial revolution, is rapidly becoming a post-industrial economy and society. Political shifts are inevitable and that is exactly what we’re seeing. There’s not much point in being sentimental about it. It remains to be seen how the political order will evolve.

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