Two further polls in the wake of the weekend Newspoll, including voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan and its regularly conducted but irregularly published federal polling series. This shows Labor with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, unchanged from the last such poll a month ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 34.5% (unchanged), Greens 12.5% (down half a point) and One Nation 2.5% (down one). The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the previous two weekends, from a sample of 2747.
The accompanying release takes a deep dive into gender breakdowns in light of recent events, as The Australian did yesterday with recent Newspoll data, which you can read about as an update at the bottom of this post. Whereas The Australian came up empty, Morgan tells us of a 4.3% differential in Coalition two-party preferred between April 2020 and early February (53.5% among men, 49.3% among women), but a 6.2% differential since late February (52.8% among men, 46.5% among women).
There is also the regular fortnightly Essential Research poll which includes the pollster’s monthly reading of leadership ratings. These have Scott Morrison down three on approval to 62% and up one on approval to 29%, Anthony Albanese up one to 41% and down one to 32%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing slightly from 52-24 to 52-26.
Concerning recent rape allegations, 37% agree with Scott Morrison’s contention that an inquiry into the Christian Porter matter would “say the rule of law and our police are not competent to deal with these issues”, with 33% disagreeing. Sixty-seven per cent felt it was “time women were believed when they say they have been assaulted”, but 62% also felt that “because the charge of rape is so serious, the burden of proof needs to be high” – a difficult circle to square. Fifty-five per cent felt there needed to be an independent investigation compared with 45% who favoured an alternative proposition that “the police has said they will not be pressing charges and that should be the end of the matter”.
Regular questions on COVID-19 management find federal and state governments recovering ground that most had lost in the previous result a fortnight ago. The federal government’s good rating is up eight to 70% and its poor rating is down two to 12%. For the state governments, New South Wales’ good rating is up three to 75%, Victoria’s is up thirteen to 62%, Queensland is up two to 75%, Western Australia is up six to 91% and South Australia is up to 85%. For the small states especially, caution is required due to small sample sizes (though the WA result may be the highest yet recorded anywhere, which would be neat timing if so).
Also featured is an occasional suite of questions on trust in institutions, which finds 66% expressing a lot of or some trust in state and territory governments, up six points six August, and 72% doing so for border security agencies, up five. Other institutions record little change except the print media, which already rated poorly and is now down four points to 35%. The poll also found 38% support for an aged care levy with 30% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1124.
Newspoll, Essential and Roy Morgan between them have amounted to a healthy infusion of data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregates, which you can see summarised on the sidebar and in much greater detail here. Labor is now credited with a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, following a dead heat when the numbers were last updated three weeks ago.
https://australian.museum/learn/animals/spiders/st-andrews-cross-spider/
snap Yabba
KayJay
I’m no expert, But I think it’s a St Andrews Cross – or something like that.
snap lizzie
Thanks fellas —-
I don’t dare shift the forest of stakes for fear he will take umbrage.
I can now pretend to cleverness when I inform my daughters of this information.
Of course, they won’t believe me (re the cleverness).
Toodles everybody – from a wet, wet Newcastle. No mowing today.
An interesting, and VERY pleasing statistic from Saturday’s Massacre In The West:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/there-s-nothing-but-bad-news-from-the-west-for-scott-morrison-20210316-p57b3l.html
‘KayJay says:
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 9:24 am
Thanks fellas —-
I don’t dare shift the forest of stakes for fear he will take umbrage.’
Probably a she.
Victoria says:
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 8:18 am
We need clarification regarding the astra zeneca vaccine. Many countries have suspended its use at present.
What about Australia?
30 blood clots 5 million injections and no-one knows if it is related.
In the usa deaths per 5 million about 8000
In the Australia economy on meds to stop the spread.
It is Bullshit at any level.
https://theconversation.com/only-the-lonely-an-endangered-bird-is-forgetting-its-song-as-the-species-dies-out-156950?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=bylinetwitterbutton
Dan P:
Massacre is completely appropriate in the circumstances. Suffice it to say I’ve enjoyed the last few days 😆
Thanks boerwar. 🕷️🕷
Theo Andelinisays:
Wednesday, March 17, 2021
We should not be subsidising environmental vandalism. Enough propping up of billionaires and their destructive enterprises.
________________
Agree but it is Daniel Andrews so the rusted on will just look the other way.
Just imagine if it was Scott Morrison.
‘lizzie says:
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 9:30 am
The loss of the regent honeyeater song culture may be a final warning that the species is headed for extinction. This is an aspect of species conservation we can’t ignore.’
The main immediate driver is almost certainly the native Noisy Miner. In turn the massive increase in population of the latter are the direct result of re-landscaping the continent through clearing. I contribute to its recovery, but it is hard to see the Regent surviving in anything other than a massively managed relict landscape.
Theo Andelini
😆 I suggest you brush up on the meaning of ‘bitch’ as it was used.
If you vaccinate ten million people, then over the next couple of weeks, some might have a blood clot, some might have a heart attack and some would have another adverse event. The same would happen among ten million people who weren’t vaccinated.
This author makes the case. I don’t know his credibility but he seems to know what he is talking about: https://www.quora.com/Is-Europes-AstraZeneca-jab-decision-making-flawed-Has-Europe-got-a-problem-with-the-vaccine
p
haha.
The Coalition cares about women. Pass it on.
Boris breaks international law deliberately for the second time in six months.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-56381046
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.HE.TOUCHES.
boerwar:
As they will also be saying.”I’m not sexist.Some of my best friends are women”
Saw a link on Twitter to a report out of Germany (sorry don’t have the link from this device) linking the concern about the AZ vaccine to a small cluster of unusual intracerebral blood clots. The number isn’t atypical, but the nature of the clots is out of the ordinary and thus the subset of clot type is said to be statistically significant – this isn’t your usual leg DVT or pulmonary embolus.
I would guess that they’re drilling the data to try to work out if there is a common predisposing element. At the moment the only absolute contraindication is an allergy to a component of the vaccine, with additional cautions in certain groups: this may mean that these cautions widen, or it may not.
I’ll still be glad to have it, though who knows when.
on edit: Steve777, I’ve also seen the thought that there may be a political element to slowing the roll-out, given the shortages in many jurisdictions.
The notion that you can vaccinate 7 billion people without a few hundred or so carking it as a direct result of the needling seems to me to be unlikely.
OTOH, NOT vaccinating 7 billion will kill tens of millions of people.
No brainer.
Belatedly, here’s the link re the German data: https://www.pei.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/newsroom-en/hp-news/faq-temporary-suspension-astrazeneca.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=5
Warrigal
This has a bit on it. I suppose they have to take zero chances because anything not checked is an opening for the antivaxxer nutters.
.
.
Germany cited seven cases of cerebral vein thrombosis among patients getting one of the 1.6 million AstraZeneca shots given there so far. German Health Minister Jens Spahn call this a “very low risk” but above average if confirmed to be linked to the vaccine.
Norwegian public health officials over the weekend reported three more cases of blood clots or brain hemorrhages in 30- to 40-year-olds after vaccination, which spurred Ireland to join in.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/91641
Noisy Miners seem to be the bullies of the local bird world. The work in gangs and chase other species away – magpies, king parrots, sometimes sulphur-crested cockatoos although they can usually hold their own.
bw: I agree entirely. Covid is far, far more likely to kill you.
The concern in this case is linked to a younger age group than is typically at most risk.
As poroti notes.
So I woke up this morning to the news that Brendan’s web site is now taking bookings.
I went to the web site. Clicked through the eligibility test. Sure enough, I’m in 1b.
It then allows me to enter my address and choose a location.
Problem is that the GP super clinic which is in the largest town anywhere near here isn’t one of the locations listed on the map. So, I rang up the GP clinic. The nice lady on the other end of the phone informed me that they’d be sending out invitations towards the end of the month.
When I asked how do they choose who to invite and based on what information, I was informed that it would be based on what they have on file. So, they’re making up their own process. Not a good look.
At this point she told me two things. One of those was that the GP super clinic was going to be registered with the government as a place of vaccination some time in the next couple of weeks. And then that they were still inquiring with (and no answer from) the government as to precisely what the eligibility criteria are regarding underlying health conditions. Whether the first is entirely dependent on the other is unclear.
Plenty of other teensy medical practices have registered. Not this one. Not happy. My mum doesn’t need to prove underlying medical condition. She qualifies purely because of age. Yet my GP is stalling for what should be unrelated reasons.
Its also clear that despite theoretically ordering 10+ million doses of Pfizer, those that need it the most (the elderly) in practice aren’t going to get it. Its also alarming that despite ordering 50+ million doses of Novavax (which by all accounts is a better vaccine than AZ) isn’t even getting a mention in the media.
Fuck you, Brendan.
Thanks Steve777. I think this comments from the link you posted sums up just how diligent they are chasing adverse effects, and the problems with attribution of adverse effects to the vaccine:
“…..the Moderna vaccine team recorded a serious adverse event in one of its trial subjects: cardiac arrythmia in a 72-year old volunteer. While recording this as an SAE, the team noted that he had been struck by lightning 28 days after receiving his shot, and this might also have had something to do with it.”
As a person with chronically low platelet counts and long-standing immune system issues, I emphatically do NOT see the concerns over the AZ vaccine as something to be trivialised.
Its all very well to be gungho about the risk being small so bore right ahead but it is important to some actual human beings that the issue be fully investigated, so please show some respect to that.
‘Steve777 says:
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 10:04 am
Noisy Miners seem to be the bullies of the local bird world. The work in gangs and chase other species away – magpies, king parrots, sometimes sulphur-crested cockatoos although they can usually hold their own.’
They are a remarkable species in terms of behaviour. In some ways they are the bird species that most reminds me of humans. They form alliances to drive competing bird species out of their territories. Where Noisy Miners are established it is rare to find any bird at all that is smaller than a Noisy Miner.
In other ways they are very different. Females kill each other so that the ratio of females to males may be one to six or something like that. The spare males help feed the offspring of the dominant female.
Noisy Miners are listed as a threatening process under the EPBC Act.
Research has been done to see what happens when you eliminate Noisy Miners from an area by shooting them, etc.
The result is that spare Noisy Miners from adjacent areas immediately recolonize the cleaned up areas. There is no immediately known practical prospect of managing their numbers.
IMO they are an example of extinction lag: a process leading to extinction which has been triggered by earlier disturbances (massive clearing) and which has yet to work its way through the system.
Steve777 @ #73 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 9:04 am
I’ve seen them monstering crows and even kookaburras in our local park.
‘ajm says:
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 10:08 am
As a person with chronically low platelet counts and long-standing immune system issues, I emphatically do NOT see the concerns over the AZ vaccine as something to be trivialised.
Its all very well to be gungho about the risk being small so bore right ahead but it is important to some actual human beings that the issue be fully investigated, so please show some respect to that.’
Sooner or later every single thing is important to some human being or other. This should not, IMO, preclude humour.
With all respect to Fiona Clint, keeping quiet under the threat of mutually assured destruction is a key reason why things have become like this in the first place.
‘ajm says:
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 at 10:15 am
Steve777 @ #73 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 9:04 am
Noisy Miners seem to be the bullies of the local bird world. The work in gangs and chase other species away – magpies, king parrots, sometimes sulphur-crested cockatoos although they can usually hold their own.
I’ve seen them monstering crows and even kookaburras in our local park.’
There is one report of them chasing a Great Cormorant out of one of their territories. There is no conceivable ecological connection between the two species.
boerwar @ #80 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 9:15 am
Thanks for your compassionate response, now GAGF
ajm
I agree it’s not something to be trivialized, but false positive correlations have occurred in the past with vaccines and continue to do so. The H1N1 vaccine, for instance, was reported to have an increased risk for narcolepsy for some time and people with narcolepsy (such as myself) were getting advised against innoculation.
It turned out to be a statistical artefact.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/history/narcolepsy-flu.html#:~:text=An%20increased%20risk%20of%20narcolepsy,countries%20also%20detected%20an%20association.
In saying that, there is nothing wrong with guiding people with certain risk factors or medication towards a different vaccine, particularly when they are available, out of an abundance of caution.
‘ajm says:
Thanks for your compassionate response, now GAGF.’
I have a possible risk factor in relation to taking the AZ vaccine.
Now go an get yourself a sense of proportion and a sense of humour to go with it.
Situation normal
“Paul Karp@Paul_Karp · Mar 17, 2021
Oh wow PM staff indicated to Morrison to take a question from Chris Uhlmann – the only non PNG vaccination question – and it’s about Nicolle Flints speech on her experience of sexism. Now PM has to go, so none on govt handling of rape allegations. #auspol
Paul Karp@Paul_Karp
The govt is determined to create a false equivalence between its fumbling the Brittany Higgins allegation, failure to investigate allegation against Porter (which he denies) and Flints complaints about GetUp. #auspol
10:02 AM · Mar 17, 2021”
ajm
I agree that we need to constantly monitor the effects of vaccines and quickly identify groups that are at more risk from the vaccine. What I’m not sure at all about is this. Why did those authorities suspend the use of the vaccine whilst doing the analysis? Is there a scientific/ethical justification for this? Or does it boil down to perceptions?
On a related note. What if we discover that there actually are meaningful differences in the safety profile between vaccines? Its one thing to justify a vaccine causing a very small number of adverse events given the alternative, but what if there are several vaccines and some have fewer adverse events than others (all else being equal). Its then ethical to choose the safer vaccine.
ajm: hopefully they will come up with some clearer advice re any cautionary risk factors. The vaccine is elective, and I will still be having it: I’m a primary care provider with no history of adverse events or precautions and being fully immunised is part of my duty of care to everyone else, including anyone who can’t or won’t have a particular vaccine.
All the best. Your concerns are understandable and I hope we are in a position to clarify things soon.
oops, Nicolle Clint.
Cud Chewer @ #75 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 10:08 am
A completely disoganised fuck up considering the time they had to (not) plan it. I haven’t been to the website but appreciate your report. I mentioned here a week or so ago that I’d read that they initially planned these super clinic vaccination centres, but that idea foundered on the impracticalities of patients having to re-register at a ‘new’ practice, and the time and costs involved by the providers. So they then were talking to GPs about the registration of established small local GPs as suitable venues – the patients are on the books, medical histories known (becoming glaringly more relevant of these side effects keep popping up, fatal or otherwise), etc. From what you are saying, it sounds like they are stuck somewhere in between. I’d also like to reiterate that from my perspective, I reckon the attachment to AZ is political, or cost, or both.
It is not only Australia that is grappling with the new world order. This is an interesting analysis of whither Britain.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/16/the-guardian-view-on-defence-and-foreign-policy-an-old-fashioned-look-at-the-future
The noisy miners around here seem to get along with the other birds havent seen them chase or fight with the other birds even magpies get along with them , when rosellas ,pigeons willy wagtails etc come to drink , if the noisy miners are there first they move off the bird bath and allow the others to drink .
Even seen other honey eater birds waited for the noisy miners to pull down plants for them which were difficult for the other honey eaters to get , then the noisy miners flew away
Cud Chewer @ #87 Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 – 9:23 am
No argument with that, but surely our government should be putting out specific warnings about the particular issues detected so potentially vulnerable people are alerted rather than simply saying there’s no problem.
I am facing a decision on which vaccine to have or even to have one at all, intertwined with an elevated risk if I actually get the disease.
I am very well informed of my underlying issues, but not everyone in my situation will be in that position.
Interesting – looking up for 18 year old daughter (1b, suffers from epilepsy). All local GP practices come up as available for bookings.
Might wait a little bit.
Uh Oh ! The Andromeda strain 😆
https://www.sciencealert.com/four-bacterial-strains-discovered-on-the-iss-may-help-grow-better-space-plants
Just saw Morrison waxing sentimental about our PNG neighbours. It just annoys me that he never shows the same care for his own people.
Lovely sensible posts from Warrigal.
This is a tired old cliché, but statistically, you’re more likely to be killed driving to the clinic.
As Warrigal said, these cerebral venous thromboses are in a younger age group. Remember, venous pressures and flow rates can be relatively sluggish, the blood isn’t all rushing about madly like in arteries. And such thromboses are more often associated with distorted local conditions – anatomical aberations, or trauma.
But what is weird, they are saying they are associated with low platelet counts. Platelets are the sticky little buggers that rush to the hole in a vessel and constitute the first rapid response plug (finger in the dyke) while the slower blood clotting system gets underway. Usually, low platelets means more prone to bleeding. (And vice versa). Aspirin prolongs bleeding time by interfering with platelet activity.
If they are associated with a low platelet count, which sounds counterintuitive, then maybe the platelets are abnormal.
(edit: which = while)
I also note that Morrison has decided that all Nicole Flint’s troubles were caused by Labor. Well, of course.
What’s next for additions to the list of non achievements for the accidental PM and his assorted band of toady Ministers and parliamentarians?
Ministers on leave for variously configured and colourful sham reasons, collecting pay and add-ons for hiding from the electorate.
Jobseeker about to twist further pain, on and about the least we’ll off .
The vaccine roll out is anything but, except for the associated squad of well connected to the Morrison government.
Papua New Guinea, our closest neighbour, about to explode as the next Covid fire storm of the pandemic.
The ask by women to be listened to, as the cartoon suggests, the PM is hiding in his office waiting for everything to settle down.
The PM cannot dismiss 50% of the population plus their supporters because it fits his purpose. And thankfully the 50% aren’t going to leave it to wither. Their issues, in a box in Morrison’s garage in the Shire, will be dragged out despite the best efforts of the Morrison government to ignore them.
Some call the Morrison government the most corrupt since Federation. Some are now suggesting that the Morrison government isn’t a government, but a veneer attempting to cover a multitude of wrongs.
The polls are indicating that a disengaged, traditionally reluctant electorate are being forced to act to bring about change as the glaring ineptitude and unabashed deceit from the Morrison government, now festooned across every level of Australian society.
A government no longer required to sit and govern from its capital.
The lengths the liberals have covered to cover the true facts regarding the Timor affair and the Australian government crimes and false hoods, hidden and to be kept hidden to protect the now sullied reputation of past Liberal governments.
Morrison has never possessed the attributes to lead Australia as PM. Morrison is accidental PM , in a position way beyond his abilities and it’s all now disintegrating, as Australia further sinks into a quagmire of crookery, falsehoods, secrecy and disinformation.
The reaction of the electorate has been slow and torturous, but it has gained momentum.
The electorate will be demanding Morrison front up for an early election, the ignorance/arrogance of the man to continue to believe that he, Morrison, was actually at the helm.
The liberals will have trouble finding a dumb arse patsy to line up to replace current PM, the minister for double talk, an accident, and a politician now with his card marked.