The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll does not include leader ratings or voting intention, but does have the following:
• The regular question on COVID-19 response finds the federal government’s good rating suffering a seven point dip to 62%, returning it to where it was for several months before an uptick in November, with the poor rating up two to 14%. The small sample results for mainland state governments also record a drop for the Victorian government, whose good rating is down ten to 49%, while the New South Wales government holds steady at 72% and the Queensland government’s drops three to 73%. As ever, particular caution must be taken with the Western Australian and South Australian results given the sample sizes, but they respectively retain the best (down three to 85%) and second best (down one to 78%) results out of the five.
• The poll finds 50% of respondents saying they will get vaccinated as soon as possible, 40% that they will do so but not straight away, and 10% that they will never get vaccinated. Variation by voting intention is within the margin of error. By way of contrast, a US poll conducted by Monmouth University last month produced the same 50% result for the “soon as possible option”, but had “likely will never get the vaccine” markedly higher at 24%. This increased to 42% among Republicans, and doesn’t that just say it all.
• The poll includes a pared back version of the pollster’s semi-regular suite of questions on leaders’ attributes in relation to Scott Morrison, but not Anthony Albanese. The consistent pattern here is that Morrison is a bit less highly rated than he was last May, but substantially stronger than he was during the bushfire crisis in January. However, he has done notably better on “good in a crisis” (from 32% last January to 66% in May to the current 59%) than “out of touch” (from 62% to 47% and now back up to 59%), whereas his gains since January on “more honest than most politicians” (now 50%), “trustworthy” (52%) and “visionary” (41%) are all either 11% or 12%. Two new questions have been thrown into the mix: “in control of their team” and “avoids responsibility”, respectively 56% at 49%.
• Respondents were asked to respond to a series of propositions concerning “the recent allegations of rape and sexual assault from women working in Parliament”, which found 65% agreeing the government has been “more interested in protecting itself than the interests of those who have been assaulted”. Forty-five per cent felt there was “no difference in the way the different political parties treat women”, though the view was notably more prevalent among men (54%) than women (37%), and among those at the conservative end of the voting spectrum (53% among Coalition voters, 41% among Labor voters and 30% among Greens voters).
• A number of questions on tech companies found an appetite for stronger regulation, including 76% support for forcing them to remove misinformation from their platforms.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1074; full results here.
Bucephalus
Robodebt is different to an alleged rape.
I’ve said it multiple times that if the minister is innocent then he should have come out within a day or two of the story hitting the media and making it known that he was innocent and rejects the allegations.
The problem with sitting on it for nearly a week is it looks suss and it reflects on the minister and the government.
Vogon Poet says:
Wednesday, March 3, 2021 at 1:03 pm
“Shorten was cleared by a police investigation, unfortunately that’s not possible in this case due to the death of the witness.”
The Police Statement did not mention the death of the complainant – it was worded almost exactly the same as the one about Shorten’s.
guytaur: “The LNP have handled this issue very badly as people look back on the Four Corners program and the LNP response to it.”
ScoMo could argue, quite reasonably in my view, that he might have been able to act far more effectively and swiftly in relation to this issue if the people in Parliament House who knew about the allegation against Minister X back in 2019 had told him about it back then.
I love how buce, because he’s a bloke, knows more about how a woman actually knows about her own circumstances.
First up was Ms Higgins, who had nothing to complain about because she had full support from reynolds, and even received a promotion !
Now we find out that the victim of the alleged rapist didn’t really want a police investigation.
Women of the world must be so happy that buce really knows how wrong they are
Winhover
“So what is your point? We should have a RC into the unknown Minister?”
No of course not, silly. The purpose of RCs are to lynch Labor politicians, not Lib ones.
Baba
We need change. We know our justice system is failing victims of crime. We know why too. Innocent until proven guilty.
What is needed is more protection for victims that lets credible allegations get support. We know the cases where it’s not he said he said (yes males can be raped too) are the exceptions
We have to find a way for justice to work in an area where so many are left without justice because we correctly go with innocent until proven guilty.
Torchbearer: “Nearly all the commentary, suggestions , advice, pronouncements I have seen about the ‘rape’ so far have been by powerful, middle aged, entitled, wealthy, white men…..”
I’ve seen a lot of media commentary by women: Louise Milligan, Sam Maiden, Jacqueline Maley, etc. I haven’t seen anywhere near as much by male journos, but I might have missed some.
I did see that Adam Bandt put out a statement.
Bucephalussays:
Wednesday, March 3, 2021 at 1:16 pm
Never give up your day job.
Baba
Even your defence is proof the LNP have handled the issue badly.
Grace Tame would like to see fresh definitions of sexual abuse and related crimes. The person who would contribute to this legislation would be……?????
Shorten was the subject of a almost 12 month long investigation by Victoria Police. The alleged victim completed a signed statement to Victoria police who then opened a formal investigation. The alleged victim was interviewed by them. Shorten was interviewed by Victoria police and cooperated fully with them. Others were interviewed. Evidence was gathered and at the end of the investigation a brief of evidence was forwarded to Victoria DPP which then made their decision.
In this current case no formal investigation was opened as no formal written statement was provided to police. The alleged victim had arranged to present herself and provide a full written and signed statement last year. The day before that she died. It should be made very clear that as a result of that no one was formally interviewed. The alleged rapist was not interviewed. No evidence was gathered. No “witnesses “ were interviewed. No investigation was undertaken.
There is a huge difference between the two cases despite some in the media and elsewhere pushing the “same as “ line.
Windhover says:
Wednesday, March 3, 2021 at 1:07 pm
“We are only in the investigative stage.”
No, we aren’t. The Police Investigation is finished.
“There is enough in the public domain to be alarmed that there is a real possibility that a senior Minister has in the past engaged in very serious brutal criminal misconduct, the sort of misconduct that would, if proven, immediately disqualify the Minister from being a candidate for election with any major party”
Utter rot.
Definitely ‘The Catch of the Day’ winner…
.
.
‘Superhero’ delivery driver catches toddler falling from 12th-floor balcony in Vietnam.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/02/superhero-delivery-driver-catches-toddler-falling-from-12th-floor-balcony-in-vietnam
One of the ways politicians can improve their lot is to start implementing a Parliament House Human Resources Department for politicians.
Of course the reason it’s not been done is the fundamental problem of enforcement. However it would be a good way for at least parties to have common agreement on rules of behaviour.
A practical way of changing the culture through an evolution of party rules that does not impact on the representation of voters.
Edit: Thats common rules agreed to by the parties that can be enforced in the parliamentary workplace.
guytaur: “We need change. We know our justice system is failing victims of crime. We know why too. Innocent until proven guilty.”
Most of the victims of serious crime I have known are not too concerned about the concepts of innocent until proven guilty and reasonable doubt. Their gripes are about things like the incredibly long lead time before cases come to trial, judges turning a blind eye to the possible intimidation of witnesses, judges ruling out evidence on technical grounds, and, after all of that, judges handing out what they see as ridiculously lenient sentences to the guilty.
Looking at the case du jour and what appears to be the sum total of the available evidence, I am struggling to see how a guilty verdict would be achievable even with a significant reduction of the burden of proof on the prosecution.
And a legal system in which someone can be found guilty solely on the basis of an uncorroborated allegation by an individual is certainly not one to which I would wish to live under.
Bucephalussays:
Wednesday, March 3, 2021 at 1:24 pm
Windhover says:
Wednesday, March 3, 2021 at 1:07 pm
“We are only in the investigative stage.”
No, we aren’t. The Police Investigation is finished.
……………………………………………………
You have missed the point. The “we” to whom I was referring was “we the people” not “we the police”.
I suggest you reread my post and try to follow the point I made.
PS. If you do not think “we the people” engage in political investigation I cannot help you.
New from the ABS. The Australian economy rose 3.1% in seasonally adjusted chain volume measures in the December quarter. Through the year, GDP fell 1.1% #auspol”?
Included Christmas buying and billions of free money throw at the economy, what the hell does he expect!.
Jez!
NSW announces it will begin merging vaccination groups 1a and 1b* to speed up vaccination rates (already surpassing other states). Gladys and Hassard also continue to pointedly note the lack of easy communication with the Feds.
1b is about 6 million, so no holding your breaths now.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-premier-gladys-berejiklian-gives-covid-19-update-20210303-p577cj.html
(*Phase 1b: all other healthcare workers, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people over 55 and other Australians over 70 who are not in aged care, younger people with an underlying medical condition and emergency and some critical workers.)
(smh)
MB
There is one big different in this case, the media were talking about an alleged rape by a cabinet minister and a police investigation doesn’t stop a person from making a public statement. The Minister could have followed the standard lines that he rejects the allegations and would work with the police because he was confident in his innocent but he wouldn’t be saying any further until the police had finish their investigation.
doyley: “There is a huge difference between the two cases despite some in the media and elsewhere pushing the “same as “ line.”
Nobody is suggesting that the cases are the same. But the decisions by the police not to proceed with them appear to be on broadly similar grounds: that is, insufficient credible evidence to take to court.
Unless I’ve missed something, the Victoria Police specifically did not make any comments about the quality of the evidence that they had collected or of the credibility of the complainant. They simply stated that they couldn’t collect enough credible evidence to satisfy the prosecutor.
And that’s more or less what the NSW Police said yesterday.
doyley says:
Wednesday, March 3, 2021 at 1:22 pm
“The alleged victim had arranged to present herself and provide a full written and signed statement last year. The day before that she died. ”
Your facts are wrong. She withdrew her report to the NSW Police before she died.
Vogon Poet
“Women of the world must be so happy that buce really knows how wrong they are”
I sometimes wonder if Buce is Scomo himself in disguise – so aware, so caring, so honest.
Windhover
[b) exposing himself to unlimited questioning on any aspect of the allegations, giving as full a response as he is able to, and explaining where and why his memory of an event 33 years ago cannot assist.]
Who is doing the questioning?
What about a question like – why would the deceased being making up these allegations? That ok?
We are just going around here with any old ideas to address the misery of the victim’s passing before admissible evidence was obtained.
meher
The police investigated Shorten and found there wasn’t evidence to convict.
The police never investigated the alleged rapist.
It’s a pretty simple thing to understand
1934pc @ #216 Wednesday, March 3rd, 2021 – 1:31 pm
I’m thinking those on jobseeker are an important part of the story given they pump 100% of their income into the economy.
Rocket scientist Josh however has decided to rip away that income that contributed to businesses staying afloat.
Is Morrison regretting approving Grace Tame as Young Australian of the Year? He’s spent the time of her speech catching up on his PR messages, so he’ll be able to answer he didn’t hear her.
Windhover says:
Wednesday, March 3, 2021 at 1:31 pm
“If you do not think “we the people” engage in political investigation”
No ,”we the people” don’t investigate.
Yet another ruthlessly rorted FAIL by the most corrupt government since Federation.
I want my money back.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-03/murray-darling-basin-on-farm-water-program-canned/13210554
We have now hit 0.163 doses per 100 people of anti Plague vaccine injected . If only the number matched the number of ‘announcements’ from Drs Scrott and Hunt.
Bucephalus…..Well, that is one take on it as far as Gillard is concerned. I guess the only recent comparison on that score was the dropping of the Age Care Report by Morrison without much/any opportunity for the assembled press crew to read/digest all that stuff about 10 minutes ahead of the conference….The essential point you have glossed over with Gillard was that she fronted and responded. Time will tell if this un-named Liberal Minister does really have balls to do the same thing. I doubt is as it is hinted the whole white-wash is aimed to last 15 minutes – if and when it takes place……
meher baba says:
Wednesday, March 3, 2021 at 1:35 pm
Nobody is suggesting that the cases are the same. But the decisions by the police not to proceed with them appear to be on broadly similar grounds: that is, insufficient credible evidence to take to court.
———
Questions have to be asked how can the NSW Police claim Insufficient credible evidence when
The police never investigated , interviewed the minister in question or witnesses or the victim
Baba
There has to be a way to improve the support for victims without throwing out our core principle for justice of innocent until proven guilty
It might mean more trials.
Along with a change in perception of going to trial.
Of course we have to keep the fundamental core of our justice sytem.
“ScoMo could argue, quite reasonably in my view…”
Meher Baba would say this about 100% of the dibble that Morrison regularly spits out. So nothing new here.
Shellbell says:
Wednesday, March 3, 2021 at 1:36 pm
“Windhover
[b) exposing himself to unlimited questioning on any aspect of the allegations, giving as full a response as he is able to, and explaining where and why his memory of an event 33 years ago cannot assist.]
Who is doing the questioning?
What about a question like – why would the deceased being making up these allegations? That ok?
We are just going around here with any old ideas to address the misery of the victim’s passing before admissible evidence was obtained.”
You can just see it:
“So, when did you stop raping people?”
The DPP decided there wasn’t sufficient evidence provided to them by VicPol to lay charges.
Who knows what was and what wasn’t included in the brief …?
The minister in question should not be able to get away with claiming innocence , there are big question marks on his Guilt and Innocence
Tricot says:
Wednesday, March 3, 2021 at 1:39 pm
I’m sure that the report and the proposed policy responses will have plenty of coverage between now and the next election for all sides of politics.
lizziesays:
Wednesday, March 3, 2021 at 1:37 pm
I think Ms Tame threw Scotty comprehensively under the bus.
‘And a legal system in which someone can be found guilty solely on the basis of an uncorroborated allegation by an individual is certainly not one to which I would wish to live under.’
Which is the problem with sex crimes, which often get down to a ‘he said-she said’ situation.
Our legal system copes wonderfully with some situations, it doesn’t with these, and as a result women continue to be sexually assaulted.
There’s a telling graphic on twitter -for every 100 cases of rape taken to court, there two cases of conviction.
And once convicted? Well, there’s a man on tumbler atm who ran down his girlfriend with his car because she was leaving him. He served just over two years.
Something needs to change.
Complacently saying “well, that’s the legal system we have” doesn’t cut it. It obviously isn’t fit for purpose, at least with these kinds of cases.
When we had the same kinds of problems in the past, we’ve changed the legal system. We can do that again.
Scott would have done well in Democratic Kampuchea.
Scott
Innocents or quilt can only be decided by a court of law and its clear that this case wont be going to court without some new evidence. The rape allegation was withdrawn by the lady before her death.
Just give the dossier to Virginia Bell SC AC, former public defender and appointed to the High Court by the Rudd government, to advise generally on what should occur.
Roy Orbison @ #232 Wednesday, March 3rd, 2021 – 1:41 pm
Exactly. Is anyone expecting meher baba to be anything other than a Liberal apologist?
Zoomster wrote:
Four or five days to respond to such an accusation is hardly taking too long. Maybe it’s too long for your liking, but anything around a week, even two (where the matter is serious), is regarded as in line with Natural Justice. It’s not like any delay will affect justice to the alleged victim. She withdrew her complaint, and she’s dead, apparently by her own hand.
I saw a report where someone mentioned defamation lawyers. I saw a comment on that report that claimed Minister X’s news conference would be joint, with his defamation lawyer, but I personally doubt that. None of this is very solid information, and it’s probably just based on a kernel of truth, with a mountain of rumour on top of it. I have certainly not seen any evidence that Minister X has threatened to sue the entire country. In fact I think he’d be unwise to threaten a defamation action at all, except in egregious circumstances.
“Kernel of truth”? Nevertheless, if you believed yourself to be innocent of the alleged crime, why wouldn’t you at least consult a defamation lawyer, especially if you were a senior cabinet minister and a long career was in danger of being ruined? It’s exactly what Geoffrey Rush did, and Sarah Hansen-Young and plenty of other people who’ve had what they believe to be their good names and careers besmirched by reckless and damagingly defamatory utterances.
As for my wife, yes, she was wrongly accused and persecuted at work. The entire case against her, while superficially plausible to a person casuallyperusing management’s dossier of allegations, turned out to have been based on doctored documents, counterfeit reports, blatant, explicit (ie. written and signed-off) conspiracy to pre-judge, the misuse of formal warnings to try to set up a chain of guilt, and the deranged accusations of a senior manager who was quietly retired by her superiors 10 months into the 22 month case after large financial discrepancies in her own department’s books became apparent. And that’s just the bullet point version.
I also add this: my wife’s exoneration was a 1-in-a-thousand outcome. She was just lucky that her accusers were stupid and lazy, believing they could casually break her spirit first with manufactured warnings and big scary words, then monster her out as a nervous wreck (which they had done with her two predecessors). Most in the past had given up and left, but we had nowhere to go, so we took them on at their own game.
Management had decided the outcome and then went about fitting my wife up with a bogus case. It also appears that many have pre-decided the outcome in the Minister X case, too.
The point is: cases can look plausible, until they are tested properly. Seeing how my wife was unfairly treated makes me acutely aware of the dangers of listening to just one side, and of not testing evidence. I’ve helped a couple of other people out since, in circumstances of bogus allegations. One of them didn’t go to jail because I found a simple factual error in the police case. That kind of thing is worth fighting for,
In the Minister X case no such testing is possible, as it was too long ago and the complainant is dead, yet so many are sure he is guilty (or are hiding that conclusion behind weasel words and moralistic tropes).
If you’re going to get passionate over an alleged sex crime, do so over young Brittany Higgins, who is alive, does have admissable evidence, can call relevant witnesses and is probably feels a little forgotten now that the lynch mob is off trying to make a case out of something that has been let lapse for far too long, and which can’t be justly tested in a proper forum anymore.
In the present case, a Twitter hashtag and the belief that Minister X is an arsehole is not sufficient to see him hanged.
Reality is If the Victim was still alive , one would think there would have been a police investigation, who knows what the evidence would had shown.
“Is anyone expecting meher baba to be anything other than a Liberal apologist?”
Yes
mikehilliard @ #238 Wednesday, March 3rd, 2021 – 1:45 pm
Yep. She said so few words about Scott Morrison but conveyed so much with it.
Zoomster
That case of the guy running over his ex speaks more about the road rules than attitudes towards DV because the road rules have for a long time treated causing death by running them over as less serious than if someone hits someone on the head.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, March 3, 2021 at 1:50 pm
Scott
Innocents or quilt can only be decided by a court of law and its clear that this case wont be going to court without some new evidence. The rape allegation was withdrawn by the lady before her death.
———–
Yes, the victim also wanted to go to the police to make a offical statement