Comings and goings

More internal party jockeying ahead of a federal election most expect to be held later this year.

Another week’s worth of federal preselection developments. For the latest on the Western Australian election campaign, see the post below.

Richard Ferguson of The Australian reports there is “speculation” Senator Kristina Keneally might move to the House of Representatives amid a preselection battle with Right faction colleague Deborah O’Neill, in which the winner will get the factionally reserved top position on the ticket while the loser will be relegated to highly loseable third place.

• Nick Champion, who has held the seat of Spence (formerly Wakefield) for Labor since 2007, will move to state politics in the safe seat of Taylor at the next election in March 2022. Champion is aligned with the socially conservative Shop Distributive Allied and Employees Association sub-faction of the Right, and is a member of the pro-coal mining Otis Group. No apparent word on who might be in line to replace him in Spence, which is now a safe seat.

The Brisbane Times reports the preselection of Graham Perrett, who has held the Brisbane seat of Moreton for Labor since 2007, faces a preselection challenge from state party secretary Julie-Ann Campbell, who among other things has affirmative action considerations in her favour.

• The South Australian Liberals have finalised their Senate ticket, with incumbents Simon Birmingham and Andrew McLachlan taking the top two positions and the third going to Kerrynne Liddle, a factional moderate of indigenous background who works as a staffer to Social Services Minister and SA Senator Anne Ruston. Tom Richardson of InDaily reports Liddle was chosen ahead of state party vice-president Rachel Swift by a margin of 130 to 78.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,276 comments on “Comings and goings”

Comments Page 4 of 26
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  1. Overall I agree with the analysis in the 538 article, thanks for the link Briefly, but I disagree with this bit.

    … the [Democratic] party must figure out whether conservative voters wary of Trump and Trumpism constitute a big enough bloc to make it worthwhile to court them, even if that means sidelining some of the policy goals of the party’s more progressive wing.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/with-trumps-acquittal-the-fragility-of-americas-democracy-is-even-more-clear/

    The Democrats are just as capable of electoral arithmetic as the Republicans. They may side-line some of their more progressive policies but it won’t be to court conservatives wary of Trump.
    * With a First Past The Post electoral system and optional voting you only have to carry the majority of the voter turnout.
    * If the Dems move too far right they will lose left wing turnout without adding right wing votes. They may even lose right wing votes. Why bother with the untrustworthy flipper-floppers when you can vote for clear decisive Republican leadership?
    * Moving too far left will encourage more right wing voters to turn out against them. It’s the same effect as the huge anti-Trump turn out, but in the other direction.

    Federally the key is to win 51 or more Senate seats. So I think we’re going to see a shift to State by State politics, specially in purple states. It’s going to be messy and at times inconsistent.

  2. dave says:
    Sunday, February 14, 2021 at 1:06 pm

    No. I let it lapse a few years ago when cash flow was tight and haven’t renewed but they keep sending emails so I’m not missing much. Haven’t had any functions that I’ve wanted to go to so really no need to rejoin.

  3. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #152 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 1:12 pm

    C@tmomma @ #147 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 10:07 am

    How can we even begin to take these arguments seriously if they so flippantly justify a position that directly contradicts their ethics?

    Well you’re wrong about that, so that point is moot.

    Wow!

    What a convincing argument.

    Almost as good as your other points. 😆

    It’s better than no argument at all, which is your position. Just some gobbledegook about ‘ethics’. And mockery of me. LOTS of mockery of me. Excuse me if I find that unconvincing.

  4. Bucephalus @ 12.50pm
    “I’m quite happy for my very healthy family”
    Perhaps a checkup for your mental health?
    Bucephalus @ 1.02pm
    “I know you don’t like the IPA but stop making up fairy stories.”
    Do you see a link between the IPA and fairies ?
    You’re out of your league Bexiboi. Give me a miss.

  5. Australian Catholics are going to pay attention to their religious leaders’ views on vaccines about as much as they pay attention on contraception.

  6. C@tmomma @ #156 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 10:22 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #152 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 1:12 pm

    C@tmomma @ #147 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 10:07 am

    How can we even begin to take these arguments seriously if they so flippantly justify a position that directly contradicts their ethics?

    Well you’re wrong about that, so that point is moot.

    Wow!

    What a convincing argument.

    Almost as good as your other points. 😆

    It’s better than no argument at all, which is your position. Just some gobbledegook about ‘ethics’. And mockery of me. LOTS of mockery of me. Excuse me if I find that unconvincing.

    Ah, so if you don’t understand a point, it’s just “gobbledygook” and not something that should be considered.

    That seems a strange formula for framing a debate.

  7. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #161 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 1:31 pm

    C@tmomma @ #156 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 10:22 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #152 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 1:12 pm

    C@tmomma @ #147 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 10:07 am

    How can we even begin to take these arguments seriously if they so flippantly justify a position that directly contradicts their ethics?

    Well you’re wrong about that, so that point is moot.

    Wow!

    What a convincing argument.

    Almost as good as your other points. 😆

    It’s better than no argument at all, which is your position. Just some gobbledegook about ‘ethics’. And mockery of me. LOTS of mockery of me. Excuse me if I find that unconvincing.

    Ah, so if you don’t understand a point, it’s just “gobbledygook” and not something that should be considered.

    That seems a strange formula for framing a debate.

    I did understand exactly where you were coming from, even if you sought to allege that I didn’t. It was simply an extremely lightweight argument from you that ignored reality. Your choice.

  8. Bucephalus:

    Sunday, February 14, 2021 at 1:16 pm

    [‘No. I let it [membership of the IPA] lapse a few years ago when cash flow was tight and haven’t renewed but they keep sending emails so I’m not missing much…’]

    Most of your discourse is now explicable. I was going to join the Communist Party of Australia in the ’70s but thought twice as it would’ve affected my security clearance. I mean, I didn’t want ASIO on my back.

  9. C@tmomma @ #161 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 10:36 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #161 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 1:31 pm

    C@tmomma @ #156 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 10:22 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #152 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 1:12 pm

    C@tmomma @ #147 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 10:07 am

    How can we even begin to take these arguments seriously if they so flippantly justify a position that directly contradicts their ethics?

    Well you’re wrong about that, so that point is moot.

    Wow!

    What a convincing argument.

    Almost as good as your other points. 😆

    It’s better than no argument at all, which is your position. Just some gobbledegook about ‘ethics’. And mockery of me. LOTS of mockery of me. Excuse me if I find that unconvincing.

    Ah, so if you don’t understand a point, it’s just “gobbledygook” and not something that should be considered.

    That seems a strange formula for framing a debate.

    I did understand exactly where you were coming from, even if you sought to allege that I didn’t. It was simply an extremely lightweight argument from you that ignored reality. Your choice.

    😆 😆 😆

  10. Ah memories. When we returned to Oz from the hop capitol of the USA it took me a while to work out that IPA means something very different here. Assuming that the imaged IPA is unfortified it requires a special yeast to get it to 8.8% . The best I ever managed was 6.5% and with an expensive reverse sugar. (It made no sense to me, but magic requires faith.)

  11. VP. 41% – sure but in a girly 330ml bottle.
    Shakespeare had something to say about drinking small beer.

    The PL IIPA is a man size 500ml.

  12. Barney I=Imperial
    Derived I’d guess from the Russian Imperial Stout that was made with impressive alcohol content to prevent it freezing on the Russian railways.
    The myth of English IPA was that the extra hops ( a preservative ) and higher alcohol content allowed for better lifespan on the ship from England.

  13. I wrote a romantic message on my wifes card today:
    You still take my breath away, even though I’m out of breath putting my pants on nowadays.

  14. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #167 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 1:42 pm

    C@tmomma @ #161 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 10:36 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #161 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 1:31 pm

    C@tmomma @ #156 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 10:22 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #152 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 1:12 pm

    C@tmomma @ #147 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 10:07 am

    How can we even begin to take these arguments seriously if they so flippantly justify a position that directly contradicts their ethics?

    Well you’re wrong about that, so that point is moot.

    Wow!

    What a convincing argument.

    Almost as good as your other points. 😆

    It’s better than no argument at all, which is your position. Just some gobbledegook about ‘ethics’. And mockery of me. LOTS of mockery of me. Excuse me if I find that unconvincing.

    Ah, so if you don’t understand a point, it’s just “gobbledygook” and not something that should be considered.

    That seems a strange formula for framing a debate.

    I did understand exactly where you were coming from, even if you sought to allege that I didn’t. It was simply an extremely lightweight argument from you that ignored reality. Your choice.

    😆 😆 😆

    Lightweight. Proven.

  15. Hops as used in beer carry two different loads, flavour and aroma. They also add bitterness. There are dozens and dozens of different hop varieties that can be used in countless combinations. Finding a perfect mix for your palate can take time. Luckily the journey is most enjoyable.

  16. Ahhhh… the Russian Imperial.

    Moobrew made one that the ladies who ran the Thebarton Wheatsheaf explained was like a velvet sledgehammer.

  17. zoomster @ #121 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 12:38 pm

    Rex

    ‘ I would not write him off.’

    Make up your mind, you’ve been saying he’s a failure for months!

    You can’t go a day without a mistruth.

    I’ve said ever since Albanese announced his Howard-esque cash bribe to the urbs (childcare) that he’d be a chance.

    I’ve also noted Albo’s meat and potatoes election platform would also favourably contrast him to Morrison’s used car salesman schtick.

    We all know however that you’ve always put the slows on Albo because you don’t like him.
    You and briefly continue to find ways to talk down Labors chances with Albo.
    Very divisive agenda’s, both of you.

  18. Rex

    Heavens forfend that I be honest in my opinions!

    The fact you find that something to criticise says an awful lot about your approach to the truth.

  19. The saddest thing about gout is I can’t imbibe any more. But back in the day home brewed IPAs and Reds or Coppers were favourites, with Porters during the cooler months. The odd crisp summer ale, and occasional lager featured too. I did make an Imperial Stout once you could almost stand a spoon in. It would take ages to run clear down the inside of the glass. After my first outing with it though I set myself a strict limit of 150ml consumption per evening. And like a good wine it even improved with a year or two of cellaring. (Being equipped to home brew and initially quite horrified by the prices on commercial beers in Oz I never “studied” the local commercial stuff.)

  20. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/chinese-lunar-new-year-2021-covid

    China’s epidemic prevention effort has leaned on social organisation, not technology. Feng Ouxing, a state-owned enterprise researcher, is back in her home province of Fujian. To leave Beijing she had to fill in a form stating a reason for why she was leaving, where she was going and what transport she would take. Her work unit was relatively relaxed about her returning to see her family. That is not the case for everyone – civil servants in other areas of China are expected to set an example and so most are required to stay where they work, unless there are “special circumstances.”

    Sudden changes in Covid-19 related policies have been part of China’s overall response. If there are new cases in a city, the local government’s response follows a set pattern. There is a swift lockdown, mass testing, and everyone waits within their residential compounds until there are no locally transmitted cases. While it may be effective for eliminating the virus, it has a huge impact on people’s lives. They are often stuck, in cities where they don’t work, for months on end without salaries. And once they do return, that can mean facing another quarantine.

  21. A US marine has been taken to hospital after testing positive for COVID-19 while in quarantine in Darwin.

    The 21-year-old recently arrived in Australia as part of the 2021 Marine Rotational Force-Darwin (MRF-D) — a training exercise that will see about 2,200 personnel rotate through Darwin by June.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-14/us-marine-positive-coronavirus-darwin-military-training-exercise/13153326?utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_amp&utm_campaign=abc_news_amp&utm_content=twitter

  22. C@tmomma @ #182 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 11:12 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #178 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 2:00 pm

    C@tmomma @ #172 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 10:49 am


    Lightweight. Proven.

    Yes, we all know the standards of what you consider proof.

    What’s got up your nose!?!

    (Notes, this is a standard this person appears to apply to no one else). 🙄

    Poor persecuted C@t, yes, I’ve never challenged Guytaur, Boerwar, Buce, Nath, Rex amongst others, before on what they post, just you.

    Anyway, I’m done. You just want to keep being nasty.

    You really seem to have little ability for self reflection.

  23. Late Riser @ #181 Sunday, February 14th, 2021 – 2:08 pm

    The saddest thing about gout is I can’t imbibe any more. But back in the day home brewed IPAs and Reds or Coppers were favourites, with Porters during the cooler months. The odd crisp summer ale, and occasional lager featured too. I did make an Imperial Stout once you could almost stand a spoon in. It would take ages to run clear down the inside of the glass. After my first outing with it though I set myself a strict limit of 150ml consumption per evening. And like a good wine it even improved with a year or two of cellaring. (Being equipped to home brew and initially quite horrified by the prices on commercial beers in Oz I never “studied” the local commercial stuff.)

    Sweet baby Jesus don’t let Mundo get the gout.

  24. ‘AngoraFish says:
    Sunday, February 14, 2021 at 1:28 pm

    Australian Catholics are going to pay attention to their religious leaders’ views on vaccines about as much as they pay attention on contraception.’

    False theological link, IMO. Although there is a link: all life is sacred.

    Some Australian Catholics believe that abortion is murder. No more. No less. Some Australian Catholics will pay attention to this issue. Their most likely choice would be another vaccine that did not depend, in their view, on murder to develop.

  25. It is by now abundantly clear that the reason Xi did the old anger routine with Morrison was that Xi was hiding something pretty serious about the gestation of Covid in China.

    Why is Xi hiding the key data that could help manage future zoonotic outbreaks?

    It must be pretty serious.

  26. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-14/us-marine-positive-coronavirus-darwin-military-training-exercise/13153326

    Thanks lizzie. We don’t hear much about how the military are coping with the pandemic. It’s not the sort of thing you can do from home. Also interesting in the report is where US marines are being quarantined. Google Maps shows the “spartan comfort” of Bladin Village. It wouldn’t surprise me if the troops look forward to it.

    https://www.google.com.au/maps/place/Bladin+Village/@-12.5696799,130.918842,3a,75y,90t/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipOPNzE20SxWQqWAwIB7Tdm-9AjZ_k7-M5I5Sdc6!2e10!3e12!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipOPNzE20SxWQqWAwIB7Tdm-9AjZ_k7-M5I5Sdc6%3Dw114-h86-k-no!7i1125!8i844!4m5!3m4!1s0x2cc098d551c7fe73:0x17016316d808e4cb!8m2!3d-12.5694246!4d130.9198913

  27. I do not understand who thinks it is a good idea to wear a dark coloured full body suit while playing elite level tennis in the sun in the Australian Summer.

  28. It looks like beer drinkers have been discussing their favourite beverage for a very long time:

    American and Egyptian archaeologists have unearthed what could be the oldest known beer factory at one of the most prominent archaeological sites of ancient Egypt, a top antiquities official said on Wednesday.

    Mostafa Waziri, secretary general of the Supreme Council of Antiquities, said the factory was found in Abydos, an ancient burial ground located in the desert west of the Nile River, more than 450km (280 miles) south of Cairo.

    He said the factory apparently dates back to the region of King Narmer, who is widely known for his unification of ancient Egypt at the beginning of the first dynastic period (3150BC-2613BC).

    Archaeologists found eight huge units – each is 20 metres (about 65ft) long and 2.5 metres (about 8ft) wide. Each unit includes about 40 pottery basins in two rows, which were used to heat a mixture of grains and water to produce beer, Waziri said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/feb/13/worlds-oldest-known-beer-factory-may-have-been-unearthed-in-egypt

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