Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 44, undecided 8

Another federal poll produces another respectable result for Labor, belying chatter about threats to Anthony Albanese’s leadership.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes one of the pollster’s quarterly dumps of its accumulated voting intention results, amounting to six new data points going back to early November. The latest of these, based on its most recent survey of 1092 respondents, is even more eye-catching than Newspoll in recording a Labor lead. The results bear the usual idiosyncrasies of Essential’s post-2019 election voting intention practices, in that the undecided are not excluded from the published figures on either primary vote and two-party preferred, and the latter is determined by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate a preference and previous election flows for those who don’t.

Had the undecided been excluded, the latest results would have been Coalition 40.2%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 10.9% and One Nation 3.3%, with Labor leading 51.6-48.4 on two-party preferred. However, the other five sets of results published for November through to mid-January show that the pollster has a quality (I believe it should be regarded as such) that Newspoll lacks, namely the normal variability that random samples of around 1000 respondents should naturally produce. So the mid-January result with the undecided excluded showed a quite different result, with the Coalition leading 51.6-48.4.

Over the longer term, the pollster finds the two parties to be evenly matched, which suggests the series is a little more favourable to Labor than Newspoll, but not greatly so. For the results in detail, observe the pollster’s full report or my BludgerTrack poll aggregate facility, which is updated with the new data on both the poll tracker and poll data table.

The poll also tackles the question of an early election, which respondents were dubious about, with 58% agreeing it would “just be opportunism for the Prime Minister to call an early election” compared with 42% who favour the alternative that an election would be “good for Australia, because a lot has changed since the last election”. I’m not completely sure myself what was gained here by not just asking respondents straight up if they wanted an early election or not.

Also featured are results on COVID-19, which find the federal government continuing to score high marks for its response, with 67% rating it good (steady since late November) and poor by 14% (down one). The small sample results for the state governments are likewise consistently high, with changes since November landing within their wide margins of error. New South Wales is down five to 71%, Victoria is up one to 61% (it was mostly in the high forties from the onset of the outbreak in July through to an upswing in November) and Queensland is up six to 78%, while the particularly small samples for Western Australia and South Australia produce results of 80% in each case, respectively down three (this was conducted before Perth’s lockdown began on Monday) and up ten.

The poll also finds 44% would favour their state governments being in charge of vaccine rollouts compared with 38% for the federal government, and most express confidence the rollout will be conducted efficiently and safely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,763 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 44, undecided 8”

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  3. Dandy or frednk …

    Can you clarify? DRM0 does not seem to be just about generation management, it seems intended to disconnect the whole inverter from the grid – i.e. no generation but also no consumption. The higher DRMs add specific consumption management, as well as more detailed generation management.

    I believe AEMO wanted more than just DRM0, they also wanted to restrict consumption, but that didn’t make it into this version of the standard.

    Presumably, it will be added later. My question is, do you think it will be retrospective? Are inverters that are currently only required to support DRM0 required to be upgradable to later support the higher DRMs?

  4. P1
    The consumption restriction is limited to charging the energy source ( the battery), an inverter cannot turn off your air conditioner or fridge.

  5. I believe AEMO wanted more than just DRM0, they also wanted to restrict consumption, but that didn’t make it into this version of the standard.

    AEMO, as a semi-private enterprise, make a (very small) margin on all energy exchanged through their markets. It is not in their interest to restrict the trade of energy.

    AS4777 is about turning up or down generation or consumption in a controlled way so as to protect system operation. Beyond energy or real power, a big part of this is in reactive (imaginary) power support (which is the answer to Yabba’s question on i from a couple of weeks ago) for voltage management. This protects devices and permits more energy to be sourced from the LV network than would otherwise be possible. Other technical services this standard enables is improved frequency contingency response (aka FCAS) and primary frequency response aka droop control.

    FYI I played a small part in developing the new .2 standard.


  6. Dandy Murray says:
    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 7:00 pm
    …

    FYI I played a small part in developing the new .2 standard.

    Well this little fish thinks it was a pretty good effort.

  9. DM

    As I initially posted, I can’t get over how far ahead of the game the standards are when compared to the rubbish that comes out of the federal government.

    Now what we need is an Australian standard for home management. You have to use propitiatory products to take the wholesale product and control your home. There should be a standard so you can use products from different manufacturers and for the wholesale price, you are not tied into one wholesale data provider.

  16. Root going on and on versus India having been unstoppable in Sri Lanka.

    Showing what is possible.

    The Australian cricket brains trust has some time to do some planning.

  18. Greensborough Growler:

    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 5:55 pm

    [‘SNIP’]

    What could you have posted that offends the sensibilities of the dear moderator?

  21. Greensborough Growler:

    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 7:58 pm

    Please take stock. And really – ‘bluster and bullying’ – spare me the crapola.

  24. Greensborough Growler:

    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 8:07 pm

    [‘Have another bottle of Sherry, blackboard monitor.’]

    Wasn’t you who has provided gratuitous advice to others?

  27. Greensborough Growler:

    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 8:20 pm

    [‘You know it’s what you need!’]

    You’re not up to scratch tonight, cobber. Perhaps an early night(?). Next, you’ll resort to the colourful turn of phrase of young Andy.

  29. Greensborough Growler:

    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 8:31 pm

    [‘Sip, sipping away is all you’ve got!’]

    Dear, please do a Pepys. I really think you’re losing your mojo, which is quite sad.

  32. Greensborough Growler:

    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 8:41 pm

    [‘You’re exactly the same. Which is even sadder!’]

    Well, I’m over three score & ten; what’s your excuse? Aren’t you a mortgage broker, still in the workforce? If so, you should have it all over an old pensioner like me.

  34. ‘Bushfire Bill says:
    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 8:41 pm

    Someone’s been paying for this ad…

    https://youtu.be/PWcJj_w9d40

    … to air on SBS, just like a proper TV commercial.

    What gives?’

    I believe he is a wealthy businessperson who is using his money to tell his truth. It must be driving Morrison nuts.

  35. Mavis @ #1690 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 8:50 pm

    Greensborough Growler:

    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 8:41 pm

    [‘You’re exactly the same. Which is even sadder!’]

    Well, I’m over three score & ten; what’s your excuse? Aren’t you a mortgage broker, still in the workforce? If so, you should have it all over an old pensioner like me.

    I am what I am!

  36. ‘Late Riser says:
    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 7:32 pm

    boerwar @ #1669 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 6:20 pm

    Hmmmm…..

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/05/live-farm-animal-exports-to-mainland-eu-at-a-standstill-post-brexit

    Small in the scheme of the UK, but the attitude is telling.

    “We flagged [the BCP issue] with Defra [the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs] last year in June or July. But they basically said it was our problem,” Davies said.’

    There may be a pattern of this sort of response from Boris’ bureaucracy. One of the responses to businesses seeking help in another context was to go and set up headquarters in the EU.

  39. Greensborough Growler:

    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 9:09 pm

    [‘I am what I am!’]

    I know that but is there any more to you other than aggression, put-downs. I’m sure there is. Anyway, I’ll leave it at that.

  40. There may be a pattern of this sort of response from Boris’ bureaucracy.

    A pattern of incompetence deflected by indifference. We’ve a bit of that here too.

  45. Will no one else plead on my behalf? Who else can bring the sort of wit and firepower that I can deploy? It’s a poorer place without the Great Man. Sad.

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