Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 44, undecided 8

Another federal poll produces another respectable result for Labor, belying chatter about threats to Anthony Albanese’s leadership.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes one of the pollster’s quarterly dumps of its accumulated voting intention results, amounting to six new data points going back to early November. The latest of these, based on its most recent survey of 1092 respondents, is even more eye-catching than Newspoll in recording a Labor lead. The results bear the usual idiosyncrasies of Essential’s post-2019 election voting intention practices, in that the undecided are not excluded from the published figures on either primary vote and two-party preferred, and the latter is determined by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate a preference and previous election flows for those who don’t.

Had the undecided been excluded, the latest results would have been Coalition 40.2%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 10.9% and One Nation 3.3%, with Labor leading 51.6-48.4 on two-party preferred. However, the other five sets of results published for November through to mid-January show that the pollster has a quality (I believe it should be regarded as such) that Newspoll lacks, namely the normal variability that random samples of around 1000 respondents should naturally produce. So the mid-January result with the undecided excluded showed a quite different result, with the Coalition leading 51.6-48.4.

Over the longer term, the pollster finds the two parties to be evenly matched, which suggests the series is a little more favourable to Labor than Newspoll, but not greatly so. For the results in detail, observe the pollster’s full report or my BludgerTrack poll aggregate facility, which is updated with the new data on both the poll tracker and poll data table.

The poll also tackles the question of an early election, which respondents were dubious about, with 58% agreeing it would “just be opportunism for the Prime Minister to call an early election” compared with 42% who favour the alternative that an election would be “good for Australia, because a lot has changed since the last election”. I’m not completely sure myself what was gained here by not just asking respondents straight up if they wanted an early election or not.

Also featured are results on COVID-19, which find the federal government continuing to score high marks for its response, with 67% rating it good (steady since late November) and poor by 14% (down one). The small sample results for the state governments are likewise consistently high, with changes since November landing within their wide margins of error. New South Wales is down five to 71%, Victoria is up one to 61% (it was mostly in the high forties from the onset of the outbreak in July through to an upswing in November) and Queensland is up six to 78%, while the particularly small samples for Western Australia and South Australia produce results of 80% in each case, respectively down three (this was conducted before Perth’s lockdown began on Monday) and up ten.

The poll also finds 44% would favour their state governments being in charge of vaccine rollouts compared with 38% for the federal government, and most express confidence the rollout will be conducted efficiently and safely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,763 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 44, undecided 8”

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  1. Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 4:08 pm

    What was the explanation frednk ?

    If you are willing to believe people drink the blood of babies at pizza shops than what I think is irrelevant to you.

    One bad apple or systemic ?

    If you willing to believe people drink the blood of babies at pizza shops than what I think is irrelevant to you. I have a view of the world based on personal experience, I have had no contact with that sort of behavior.

    Hasn’t the one female founder walked away ?

    Not to my knowledge.

    I could argue that being founded by republican types, the risk of picking up a bad apple was always there, in reality bad apples are found all across the political spectrum and in all organizations.

    The problem for people like you, embracing an organization that believes, baby killing blood drinking pizza shops is a possibility, and accepting people that believe a dictatorship is acceptable etc. and so on.

    Even though there are several examples otherwise, I don’t believe all priests rape children.

  2. still GG, u can’t explain away Lincoln so easily.

    horn says she resigned because of the weaver / boys activities – they say she resigned because she wanted cash.

    What hasn’t been denied is weavers boys activities.

    On another note what did you think of how the Andrew o keefe situation played out ?

  3. Lars Von Trier @ #1610 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 5:02 pm

    still GG, u can’t explain away Lincoln so easily.

    horn says she resigned because of the weaver / boys activities – they say she resigned because she wanted cash.

    What hasn’t been denied is weavers boys activities.

    On another note what did you think of how the Andrew o keefe situation played out ?

    I don’t have to explain anything.

    I’ve posted a counter to your hysterical rant and defamatory accusations.

    You’re the one that needs to pony up with some facts.

    I’m comfortable in knowing that is never going to happen.

  4. Greensborough Growler @ #1608 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 4:53 pm

    Lars Von Trier @ #1606 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 4:45 pm

    hey GG, that Yabba dickhead was around earlier today.

    I prepped him for u but I think he’s baled now that u turned up.

    Playing “rope a dope” with Yabba is a redundant activity. He’s already there.

    Click to Edit – <b>Lars Von Trier</b> @ <a href='https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/02/03/essential-research-2pp-labor-47-coalition-44-undecided-8/comment-page-33/#comment-3552858&#039; title='1612590346000'>#1606 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 4:45 pm</a>

    <blockquote>hey GG, that Yabba dickhead was around earlier today.

    I prepped him for u but I think he’s baled now that u turned up.</blockquote>

    Playing "rope a dope" with Yabba is a redundant activity. He's already there.SaveCancelDelete

    Hi GG, lovely to see you, too.

    What is your considered opinion of this.
    https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/catholic-church-makes-record-payout-in-child-sex-abuse-case-20210120-p56vng.html

    “The Catholic Church has made what is believed to be its highest ever payout to a victim of sexual abuse after church lawyers forced a 52-year-old man to give harrowing evidence in court about his rape by a priest in the 1970s.

    Peter* will receive $2.45 million plus legal costs to compensate him for abuse by teacher and priest Bertram Adderley, who groomed and raped him between 1977 and 1980 when he was aged 10 to 12.

    Prior to the $2.45m settlement, Peter had been offered and accepted $50,000 from the church.”

    His lawyer pointed out: “The church has a shocking history,” he said. “The abuse is part one, and then the legal bullying of survivors is part two when pitiful, insulting sums are forced on people.”

    Peter’s settlement was offered on January 13, just hours after he entered the witness box at his District Court civil trial in Perth and told how Adderley, who died in 1983, abused him over several years.

    Well GG. How deep are the pockets?

  5. Yabba comes across as someone who has had personal experience with priests raping children and is not very happy with the organization that allowed it to happen. GG as someone who has not accepted what has occurred, LVT as a stirrer.

    In my view both Yabba and GG deserve some sympathy, it is a serious issue and stirring is not appropriate. But i’m just a squawking parrot.

  6. Frednk @ #1583 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 3:55 pm

    Article was a little wrong, you have to provide provision for the connection of demand management.

    Ah, thanks! I had wondered about that very point, but I read several articles that specifically denied this was the case.

    I am sure the other stuff in the standard is all well and good, but I reckon enabling future demand management was a significant driver behind the new standard.

  7. Yabba @ #1615 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 5:09 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1608 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 4:53 pm

    Lars Von Trier @ #1606 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 4:45 pm

    hey GG, that Yabba dickhead was around earlier today.

    I prepped him for u but I think he’s baled now that u turned up.

    Playing “rope a dope” with Yabba is a redundant activity. He’s already there.

    Click to Edit – <b>Lars Von Trier</b> @ <a href='https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/02/03/essential-research-2pp-labor-47-coalition-44-undecided-8/comment-page-33/#comment-3552858&#039; title='1612590346000'>#1606 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 4:45 pm</a>

    <blockquote>hey GG, that Yabba dickhead was around earlier today.

    I prepped him for u but I think he’s baled now that u turned up.</blockquote>

    Playing "rope a dope" with Yabba is a redundant activity. He's already there.SaveCancelDelete

    Hi GG, lovely to see you, too.

    What is your considered opinion of this.
    https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/catholic-church-makes-record-payout-in-child-sex-abuse-case-20210120-p56vng.html

    “The Catholic Church has made what is believed to be its highest ever payout to a victim of sexual abuse after church lawyers forced a 52-year-old man to give harrowing evidence in court about his rape by a priest in the 1970s.

    Peter* will receive $2.45 million plus legal costs to compensate him for abuse by teacher and priest Bertram Adderley, who groomed and raped him between 1977 and 1980 when he was aged 10 to 12.

    Prior to the $2.45m settlement, Peter had been offered and accepted $50,000 from the church.”

    His lawyer pointed out: “The church has a shocking history,” he said. “The abuse is part one, and then the legal bullying of survivors is part two when pitiful, insulting sums are forced on people.”

    Peter’s settlement was offered on January 13, just hours after he entered the witness box at his District Court civil trial in Perth and told how Adderley, who died in 1983, abused him over several years.

    Well GG. How deep are the pockets?

    see LVT, I produce evidence of my assertions.

  8. WSL Website
    “WSL is excited to be commencing the Australian leg of the CT at the world-class break in Newcastle,” WSL Asia-Pacific general manager Andrew Stark said. “We sincerely thank the NSW Government for all of their support in not only holding a CT event but for also agreeing to land our flight and accommodating our quarantining international competitors. We’re also extremely thankful for the support of the City of Newcastle to enable the event to proceed and we look forward to working with the local community in the delivery of the event.”
    ________________
    Someone in the Andrews govt needs a good kick up the backside.
    Bells has lost the traditional Easter timeslot to Newcastle. Sounds like they were beaten by a more pro-active NSW govt.
    Why the tennis and not Bells.


  9. LVT
    What r u saying frednk ? That I’m a supporter of q anon? What do you base that on ?

    Not happy with being associated with QANON?

    Haven’t you noticed what is going on?

    Republicans can’t deal with QANAN taking the party over.
    Republicans are QANON.
    Republicans are conservatives.
    Conservatives are QANON.
    Liberals are conservative
    Liberals ……………..

    May not be fair; but that is the game being played; and one has to say the Republicans and people like you are making it so easy to play.

    Reds under the bed coming back to bite as QANON in the bed sheets.

  10. Given the litany of failed referrals to the AFP by the ALP they really don’t appear to understand what illegal activity is. Maybe if they demonstrate some successful referrals they’ll prove the need for the extra oversight.

  11. This is actually a serious question.
    Why do people continue too respond to comments by people like liar von tryhard and others of its ilk? (yeah I know that question goes against the following points)

    Do you honestly think you can change its mind?

    And don’t you realise its only purpose is to get a rise out of every person who falls for its bait?

    There are other people on here that make comments I don’t agree with and have had an interaction with, for what?, all they’ve done is drag me down to their level.

    This board is so much better when we all exchange info, ideas on the issues of the day and others for world peace, climate change, transport, pics and the occasional joke etc.

    I know this will fall on deaf ears and keyboards but can we all (myself included) PLEASE stop engaging with these troll’s, no matter the provocation.

    All that does is make pollbludger a less inviting and less informative place to visit

  12. Bucephalus @ #1625 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 5:24 pm

    Given the litany of failed referrals to the AFP by the ALP they really don’t appear to understand what illegal activity is. Maybe if they demonstrate some successful referrals they’ll prove the need for the extra oversight.

    The AFP has a special in tray for ALP referrals. It is round and sits under the desk.

  13. Frednk @ #1617 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 5:10 pm

    Yabba comes across as someone who has had personal experience with priests raping children and is not very happy with the organization that allowed it to happen. GG as someone who has not accepted what has occurred, LVT as a stirrer.

    In my view both Yabba and GG deserve some sympathy, it is a serious issue and stirring is not appropriate. But i’m just a squawking parrot.

    All you’ve got are personal slurs, comrade.

    Yabba is a bigot. He has engaged in a personal vendetta against me for years on PB simply because I am a Catholic. Somehow, in Yabba’s demented mind, I am responsible for all that is and has been wrong with the RC Church since time began. I suppose that is my Cross to bear.

    Through his hatred and bigotry he has closed down any sensible discussion and debate of paedophilia and the Churches role in the past.

    The moderator has been comfortable with that situation. So, who am I to complain.

  14. Fox Corp’s Fox Business Network has canceled “Lou Dobbs Tonight,” a weekday program hosted by the business journalist and vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump, the company said on Friday.

    News of the cancellation came one day after Dobbs, 75, was named as a defendant in a defamation lawsuit filed by voting machine maker Smartmatic, which argued that three Fox hosts, including Dobbs, falsely accused the company of helping to rig the election against Trump.

    Fox said the move to end Dobbs’ show had been in the works before the lawsuit as part of a revamp following the November U.S. presidential election in which Republican Trump was defeated by Democrat Joe Biden.

    “As we said in October, Fox News Media regularly considers programming changes and plans have been in place to launch new formats as appropriate post-election, including on Fox Business,” a Fox News Media spokesperson said. “This is part of those planned changes.”

    On the Smartmatic lawsuit, Fox said on Thursday the network was “proud of our 2020 election coverage and will vigorously defend this meritless lawsuit in court.


  15. Player One says:
    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 5:11 pm

    Frednk @ #1583 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 3:55 pm

    Article was a little wrong, you have to provide provision for the connection of demand management.

    Ah, thanks! I had wondered about that very point, but I read several articles that specifically denied this was the case.

    I am sure the other stuff in the standard is all well and good, but I reckon enabling future demand management was a significant driver behind the new standard.

    If you have a local battery what is wrong with the network controlling demand?
    The right thing to do is charge you batteries when he wholesale price is negative.
    The right thing to do in not to export when the wholesale price is negative.
    The new standard allows aggregators to install a demand response enabling device ( clause 3.2.2) and start having the system respond to market conditions.

    Seems like a good thing to me.

    The driver was definitely network stability. If you have a network disturbance if you have high penetration, the last thing you want is all your solar saying good buy.

  16. Bert @ #1626 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 5:28 pm

    This is actually a serious question.
    Why do people continue too respond to comments by people like liar von tryhard and others of its ilk? (yeah I know that question goes against the following points)

    Do you honestly think you can change its mind?

    And don’t you realise its only purpose is to get a rise out of every person who falls for its bait?

    There are other people on here that make comments I don’t agree with and have had an interaction with, for what?, all they’ve done is drag me down to their level.

    This board is so much better when we all exchange info, ideas on the issues of the day and others for world peace, climate change, transport, pics and the occasional joke etc.

    I know this will fall on deaf ears and keyboards but can we all (myself included) PLEASE stop engaging with these troll’s, no matter the provocation.

    All that does is make pollbludger a less inviting and less informative place to visit

    The same reason PB posters listen to shock radio and know everything happening on Sky and the Murdoch Media.

    People aren’t happy unless they are outraged!

  17. GG
    When it comes to the catholic church there is a lot more than personal slurs. There is no doubt the church is changing, and will have to continue to do so. As religion can be a deep seated thing, you deserve some sympathy for not facing up to it.

  18. Frednk @ #1632 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 5:36 pm

    GG
    When it comes to the catholic church there is a lot more than personal slurs. There is no doubt the church is changing, and will have to continue to do so. As religion can be a deep seated thing, you deserve some sympathy for not facing up to it.

    Like you deserve sympathy for being a complete idiot.

    I’m very comfortable with who I am and my values.

    If you don’t like that, you should just try harder.

  19. Frednk @ #1631 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 5:32 pm

    The driver was definitely network stability.

    People should be made aware they may be signing up for load shedding, if this is in fact the case (I have not seen the standard itself, I am only going by what you have posted).

    Call it “demand management” or “network stability” if you must, but if these are just euphemisms for “load shedding” then that should be made clear.

  20. I’m not putting anything into my home that allows a third party to control my usage. If I want to run the aircon and the clothes dryer then I’ll pay for it.


  21. Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 5:40 pm
    ….
    If you don’t like that, you should just try harder.

    I really don’t care, the problem with people like you is that you are unwilling to have some sympathy for people who have had their lives ruined. I’ve seen both blind faith, and lives ruined.

  22. Bucephalus says:
    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 5:44 pm

    I’m not putting anything into my home that allows a third party to control my usage. If I want to run the aircon and the clothes dryer then I’ll pay for it.

    This standard is not about controlling your usage,it is about controlling your solar export.

    If you are smart you will install climate control with thermal mass so you can heat or cool when the wholesale price is negative.

  23. Bert

    I hate the silly schoolyard insults, too, and the constant put-downs by some posters who seem to think they’re cleverer than anyone else. I try to ignore them all, and sometimes simply block them.

  24. P1 it is not load shedding, it is export management.

    Smart people will work out something to do with the un-exported power, charge a car for example.. Nice thing about solar, just because you can you don’t have to.

    Bad thing about coal, winding it down and up shortens plant life and it is slow.

  25. If we had a PM who cared about people, he would reprimand ministers who failed to carry out their duties. Instead, he ignores their failures and encourages the worst A-G in the world to create new legislation that is even more detrimental.

  26. Fred,

    You might trust the zealots – I don’t. Give them an inch and they’ll take a mile. They just keep ramping up their demands.


  27. Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 5:55 pm

    So, fuck you, idiot!

    It is the police and the courts fixing this. I am not part of either.

  28. It is not the AFP which can force ministers to administer their departments ethically. It is an Auditor General with the backing of the government.

  29. P1, buce ( and frednk),

    The new AS4777 is about distributed energy resource’s inverter control, and is applied only to the inverters that are used to connect things like PV, batteries and EVs to the network.

    Regular uncontrolled loads will not be affected by technology enabled by the standard (which will almost surely be voluntary and competitively bought from customers). Your dryer, fridge and/or AC will not be connected unless you want it to be.

    Load shedding occurs higher up the chain, typically at the zone substation. The point of this standard is to develop the tech and market offerings that avoid having to shed load.

    Ride-through refers to the inverters voltage and frequency disturbance settings. In the past, these been very conservative, leading to PV inverters tripping off en masse and exacerbating any voltage problems on the network or frequency problems across the system. A basic principle of power engineering is to do no harm; these settings were doing harm (i.e. practically implementing the control theory idea of a dissipative system).

    The big idea here is to put some flexibility on the grid’s edge, so that variability of energy supply can be balanced efficiently, i.e. at least cost.


  30. Bucephalus says:
    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 5:57 pm

    Fred,

    You might trust the zealots – I don’t. Give them an inch and they’ll take a mile. They just keep ramping up their demands.

    You don’t have to install roof solar. You don’t have to buy an electric car.

    The things that can be done with roof solar, electric cars and demand management is very exciting. If younger I would be working out how to be an aggregator and doing the sums.

  31. You might trust the zealots – I don’t. Give them an inch and they’ll take a mile. They just keep ramping up their demands.

    The alternative is a severe limit on rooftop solar installation sized (e.g. <3kw), or even a blanket ban on new solar in some areas.

  32. DM
    You have put it well.

    You can now get the wholesale data and you can get retail contracts with the price based on a percentage of the the current wholesale price.

    That means it pays to control you demand. If you have solar you don’t export when the price is negative, if your smart you find an alternative load.

    While it is a nice standard you don’t need 4777 to do this.

    It really is an exciting time, the systems are lining up for big changes.


  33. Dandy Murray says:
    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 5:59 pm

    P1, buce ( and frednk),

    The new AS4777 is about distributed energy resource’s inverter control, and is applied only to the inverters that are used to connect things like PV, batteries and EVs to the network.

    The next time I have to justify a ROCOF or vector shift setting I will be quoting the values given. For sets connected at LV ( 2MW and less) you never get the data to work out the network stiffness so it is always an educated guess anyway.

  34. The most recent round of stimulus checks were cut off for people making more than $99,000 a year, or couples that made above $198,000. [Biden] recommended the same threshold in his $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package. …

    Manchin wants no checks for individuals making more than $75,000 per year, or couples making $150,000, his office said. He wants the amount to start phasing down at $50,000 per person, or $100,000 per couple. …

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2021/feb/05/joe-biden-donald-trump-impeachment-covid-coronavirus-marjorie-taylor-greene-live-updates

    Shouldn’t be too much trouble keeping Manchin in the tent.

    Trumpists are gonna drop off their hero once the checks arrive. Dems will clean up in the midterms.

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