Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 44, undecided 8

Another federal poll produces another respectable result for Labor, belying chatter about threats to Anthony Albanese’s leadership.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes one of the pollster’s quarterly dumps of its accumulated voting intention results, amounting to six new data points going back to early November. The latest of these, based on its most recent survey of 1092 respondents, is even more eye-catching than Newspoll in recording a Labor lead. The results bear the usual idiosyncrasies of Essential’s post-2019 election voting intention practices, in that the undecided are not excluded from the published figures on either primary vote and two-party preferred, and the latter is determined by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate a preference and previous election flows for those who don’t.

Had the undecided been excluded, the latest results would have been Coalition 40.2%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 10.9% and One Nation 3.3%, with Labor leading 51.6-48.4 on two-party preferred. However, the other five sets of results published for November through to mid-January show that the pollster has a quality (I believe it should be regarded as such) that Newspoll lacks, namely the normal variability that random samples of around 1000 respondents should naturally produce. So the mid-January result with the undecided excluded showed a quite different result, with the Coalition leading 51.6-48.4.

Over the longer term, the pollster finds the two parties to be evenly matched, which suggests the series is a little more favourable to Labor than Newspoll, but not greatly so. For the results in detail, observe the pollster’s full report or my BludgerTrack poll aggregate facility, which is updated with the new data on both the poll tracker and poll data table.

The poll also tackles the question of an early election, which respondents were dubious about, with 58% agreeing it would “just be opportunism for the Prime Minister to call an early election” compared with 42% who favour the alternative that an election would be “good for Australia, because a lot has changed since the last election”. I’m not completely sure myself what was gained here by not just asking respondents straight up if they wanted an early election or not.

Also featured are results on COVID-19, which find the federal government continuing to score high marks for its response, with 67% rating it good (steady since late November) and poor by 14% (down one). The small sample results for the state governments are likewise consistently high, with changes since November landing within their wide margins of error. New South Wales is down five to 71%, Victoria is up one to 61% (it was mostly in the high forties from the onset of the outbreak in July through to an upswing in November) and Queensland is up six to 78%, while the particularly small samples for Western Australia and South Australia produce results of 80% in each case, respectively down three (this was conducted before Perth’s lockdown began on Monday) and up ten.

The poll also finds 44% would favour their state governments being in charge of vaccine rollouts compared with 38% for the federal government, and most express confidence the rollout will be conducted efficiently and safely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,763 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 44, undecided 8”

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  2. Even from his own side there have been doubts expressed about Trump, plus it looks like a bit of, what comes around, goes around:

    Sue Gordon, Trump’s former principal deputy director of national intelligence, argued in an op-ed published in The Washington Post that Trump “might be unusually vulnerable to bad actors with ill intent” because of his intention to remain in politics.

    Such concerns have long swirled around the ex-president, dating back to his first presidential campaign in 2016 when Trump offered up a politicized readout of the confidential national security briefings he received as the GOP nominee, setting off alarm bells in the intelligence community.

    If Trump were to lose access to the intelligence briefings, it would be a stunning reversal for a president who once threatened to revoke the clearances of Obama-era officials who were critical of the Trump administration.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/05/biden-trump-intelligence-briefings-466389

  3. In American once a president always a president so Trump will always be called president Trump but when it comes to the intelligence briefings he hasn’t shown a willingness to treat them with any real respect so he wont start now and that is why he is being restricted. His actions since the election render him unacceptable.

  7. Trump dismayed intelligence officials on more than one occasion for compromising sources by way of big noting himself.

    Trump was notorious for not reading his intelligence briefs.

    Trump is almost certainly kompromat blackmail material.

  12. Given recent events and threats by Republican senators and congresspersons to bring guns into the Capitol, a bulletproof version of these screens would seem appropriate.

    C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 9:55 am
    Wow, I didn’t know the Victorian parliament had been transformed in this way:

  15. For those not in the know – the Lincoln Project looks to be imploding , the founder has been accused of on line grooming by 21 young men.

    Obviously beside targeting trump many other things were going on…

  17. Biden and Sanders and a few Trumpists unifying behind the rescue package is a great start to rebuilding a broken US society I reckon.

  20. Republican Party looks like a total mess in latest polls

    Pollapalooza released by FiveThirtyEight a weekly polling roundup, finds that eight well-known Republicans in Congress have poor favorability ratings.

    FiveThirtyEight came up with a polling average for the eight Republicans by combining the results of new Morning Consult/Politico, YouGov/The Economist and SurveyMonkey/Axios polls.

    The “controversial freshmen” had some of the lowest favorability ratings, including 15% for Greene, 12% for Boebert and 11% for Cawthorn. But the “Republicans who have broken with Trump” don’t fare much better. McConnell’s favorability, according to FiveThirtyEight, is 19%, while Cheney’s is 27%. And the favorability among the “better-known Trump allies” includes 19% for Hawley, 34% for Cruz and 23% for McCarthy.

    Meanwhile, according to FiveThirtyEight, President Biden is more popular than any of the eight Republicans in Congress. Rakich notes, “According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 53.3% of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 35.6% disapprove.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/republican-polls/


  21. bc says:
    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 2:47 pm

    Interesting look at the voting machines in Georgia: Georgia’s election certification avoided an even worse nightmare that’s just waiting to happen next time

    Just more nonsense. The comment section is more interesting.

  22. PNG says it has not seen proposal for Chinese-built city on island 50km from Australian territory

    Government has not been presented with widely reported $39bn plan for Daru Island in Torres Strait

    A Chinese-built multibillion-dollar city proposed for the tiny island of Daru in the Torres Strait is not being formally considered by the Papua New Guinea government, which says it has not seen the proposal.

    The national planning minister, Rainbo Paita, told the Guardian that the government has not been presented with the proposal widely reported in the media, from the Hong Kong-based WYW Holding Company, to build a $39bn city on Daru Island, in PNG’s Western Province.

    A letter written to the PNG government last April, and leaked to the media this week, proposes transforming part of Daru Island into a business, commercial and industrial zone, along with a neighbouring resort and residential area.

    WYW Holding’s letter was sent to the government in April 2020. But in the 10 months since, it has not been brought to the attention of the prime minister, or formally submitted to the planning minister.

    “If there is a letter, then we have not viewed it yet,” Paita told the Guardian.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/06/png-says-it-has-not-seen-proposal-for-chinese-built-city-on-island-50km-from-australian-territory

  23. “According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 53.3% of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 35.6% disapprove.”


  24. Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 3:11 pm

    For those not in the know – the Lincoln Project looks to be imploding , the founder has been accused of on line grooming by 21 young men.

    Obviously beside targeting trump many other things were going on…

    Their pod casts addressed that directly last week. It will come down to one thing, are people angry enough with the Q rubbish to continue finding such an entity. The republicans are definitely making it easy for them.

  25. This transactional PM goes as far as locking up innocent Australian children in an offshore prison to politically profit – and voters write the cheque.

  26. “ So the Commonwealth has power to say, for example, “no one disembarks from #RubyPrincess until we say so”, or no one may leave home unless they are wearing a mask.”

    Quiet. But leaving decisions to State health bodies seems reasonable in most circumstances.

    Leaving masks to the states and their medical advisors seems like a good idea. If not is the AFP going to enforce breaches of a Commonwealth order?

  27. Shellbell
    The issue is not so much quarantine orders but a public health response requiring significant numbers of clinical staff. Since the Repatriation Hospitals were disposed of in the early 90s, the Commonwealth has not had the clinical resources to make that sort of response. I think that only the State departments can manage this. I read some clown saying wtte of hand over the staff to the Commonwealth- obviously not a lot of experience with the public service.

  28. I have payed for and downloaded at AS4777. Interesting you can now buy directly of standards Australia, think I’d be selling my SAI global shares if I had any.

    It has minimum ROCOF and vector shift values. Nice, every one doing there own thing was bullshit.
    There are ride through and reactive power standards. Nice.
    How to handle cars and batteries. Nice.

    Have to work out if you stay out of trouble if you follow the standard for synchronous machines. I think you do which is going to make protection design a lot easier.

    Article was a little wrong, you have to provide provision for the connection of demand management.

    In my view, a bloody good effort that will allow the industry to move forward.

  29. Biden writes to Ardern with congratulations on Waitangi Day.

    [Instagram]jacindaardern
    Verified
    Just got home from Waitangi to find a letter from President Joe Biden to mark Waitangi Day. Given it was intended for everyone, I thought I’d share it here! “Dear Prime Minister. The American people join me in offering warmest regards to the people of New Zealand on the occasion of Waitangi Day on February 6. New Zealand is one of our closest friends and partners. The unbreakable bond we share was established when the first U.S. Consul to New Zealand was on hand to witness the signing of the Treaty of Waitangi on February 6, 1840. We have since partnered together to build the multilateral framework that benefits our nations as well as the global population. I look forward to strengthening the U.S.- New Zealand relationship and cooperating to overcome the greatest challenges of our time…I have fond memories of my trip to your country in 2016 when New Zealand’s legendary reputation for friendliness and hospitality was on full display. I wish you and all New Zealanders well on this Waitangi Day. Sincerely Joseph R Biden.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/us-president-joe-bidens-message-to-kiwis-on-waitangi-day/YNNLRWUTGBOC6KLVTQGRZTGC5E/

  30. Frednk you can’t deny there were some nambla type activities going on with the Lincoln group. Sounds very Paedo IMO.

    Hiding in plain sight.


  32. Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 4:00 pm

    Frednk you can’t deny there were some nambla type activities going on with the Lincoln group. Sounds very Paedo IMO.

    Hiding in plain sight.

    Given that the Q rubbish has people killing babies and drinking their blood in pizza shops I would have dismissed it as more rubbish if the Lincoln project had not addressed it.

  34. I still can’t believe that Albo said that he had seen no corruption. Is this the right person to wage war on the dishonesty of the Liberals? Every detail of this report made me feel sick at the betrayal of honest Australians.

    On top of the waste and lack of trust, the ultimate harm is to the public interest. A systemic weakness in our politics is being exploited in major policymaking. There is no public interest served by climate denial, for example, and no international support for it. The Coalition’s climate inaction – or worse – can only be explained by its ties to the resources sector. There is no public interest in cutting workers’ wages and conditions, yet this is exactly what the government is proposing on behalf of big business. There is no public interest in the degradation of government generally. Yet wherever you look, the public interest is ignored, then outsourced, then abused. It is no match for the Coalition’s unbridled political interests.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2021/february/1612098000/nick-feik/scandals-he-walks-past

  36. Lizzie
    In Albo’s defense he was talking about corruption which goes behind what the crony rent seeking the Liberals go on with and i agree with Albo because for the most part there isn’t that much real corruption.

  37. Sasse’s message to Nebraska GOP as he faces censure: ‘Politics isn’t about the weird worship of one dude’

    Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska stood firm against leaders of his state’s Republican Party on Thursday after they advanced a censure resolution against him for decrying efforts to overturn the election results and then-President Donald Trump’s involvement in the US Capitol riot.

    “Let’s be clear: The anger in this state party has never been about me violating principle or abandoning conservative policy — I’m one of the most conservative voters in the Senate — the anger’s always been simply about me not bending the knee to one guy,” Sasse said.

    “You are welcome to censure me again, but let’s be clear about why this is happening: It’s because I still believe — as you used to — that politics isn’t about the weird worship of one dude,” Sasse said

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/04/politics/ben-sasse-nebraska-gop-censure/index.html

  38. The Lincoln Project is not imploding. This is part of the complete story that the slimeball LvT is attempting to retail so as to besmirch the good name of The Lincoln Project:

    Lincoln Project leaders, in their first extended comments about Mr. Weaver, said they had not been aware of such allegations until this month, when articles in The American Conservative and Forensic News, and an open letter on Twitter from a data analyst named Garrett Herrin, accused Mr. Weaver of grooming young men online.

    Steve Schmidt, a co-founder of the group, said its leaders had learned last summer from social media posts that Mr. Weaver, who has a wife and two children, might be involved in relationships with men, but emphasized, “There was no awareness or insinuations of any type of inappropriate behavior when we became aware of the chatter at the time.” Mr. Weaver denied the claims, Mr. Schmidt said in an interview.

    In mid-January, after the allegations gained public attention, Mr. Weaver issued a statement acknowledging he had sent “inappropriate” messages and apologizing “to the men I made uncomfortable,” while saying he had believed all of his interactions to be consensual. He said he would not return to the Lincoln Project from a medical leave that began in the summer.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/31/us/politics/john-weaver-lincoln-project-harassment.html

    Frankly, I’d be more afraid of being alone in a room with LvT.

  39. Mexicanbeemer

    “Crony rent-seeking” doesn’t seem adequate to describe the actions of Morrison’s government. I’m really disheartened that we have sunk so low.

  40. Jennifer Horn female co-founder of the Lincoln Project resigned over the scandal.

    Often people resign when there is a cover up going on which they don’t condone but cannot stop.

    Cut it whatever way u like – it’s got nambla style overtones.

  46. Political rhetoric and media reporting should have at least some grounding in reality. The fact that the rhetoric and reporting has increased significantly over the very years crime has plummeted suggests that some of our journalists and politicians are, at best, deeply ignorant of what they are talking about or, at worst, deliberately whipping up fear in the community.

    Second, when we talk about reducing crime, we should be talking less about jail, police and laws and more about reducing alcohol consumption, reducing drug use, advancing and improving access to safety technology, creating jobs and generating economic growth. The future will hold new challenges when it comes to crime. If we are to solve them, we need to start prioritising reality over rhetoric, and information over ideology.

    https://insidestory.org.au/where-have-all-the-criminals-gone/

  48. Lars,

    Speculation fueled assertions with a dose of rancid hyperbole are about all you’ve got here.

    Get back to us when you’ve got something a little more substantial.

    Cheers.

  50. lizzie @ #1590 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 4:10 pm

    I still can’t believe that Albo said that he had seen no corruption. Is this the right person to wage war on the dishonesty of the Liberals? Every detail of this report made me feel sick at the betrayal of honest Australians.

    On top of the waste and lack of trust, the ultimate harm is to the public interest. A systemic weakness in our politics is being exploited in major policymaking. There is no public interest served by climate denial, for example, and no international support for it. The Coalition’s climate inaction – or worse – can only be explained by its ties to the resources sector. There is no public interest in cutting workers’ wages and conditions, yet this is exactly what the government is proposing on behalf of big business. There is no public interest in the degradation of government generally. Yet wherever you look, the public interest is ignored, then outsourced, then abused. It is no match for the Coalition’s unbridled political interests.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2021/february/1612098000/nick-feik/scandals-he-walks-past

    Well, Albo has committed Labor to establishing a federal corruption watchdog so that’s all that effectively matters I suppose.

    The other obvious point to make is there just isn’t anyone within the Labor party room with the talent to rip into Morrison and his corrupt radicals.

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