The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes one of the pollster’s quarterly dumps of its accumulated voting intention results, amounting to six new data points going back to early November. The latest of these, based on its most recent survey of 1092 respondents, is even more eye-catching than Newspoll in recording a Labor lead. The results bear the usual idiosyncrasies of Essential’s post-2019 election voting intention practices, in that the undecided are not excluded from the published figures on either primary vote and two-party preferred, and the latter is determined by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate a preference and previous election flows for those who don’t.
Had the undecided been excluded, the latest results would have been Coalition 40.2%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 10.9% and One Nation 3.3%, with Labor leading 51.6-48.4 on two-party preferred. However, the other five sets of results published for November through to mid-January show that the pollster has a quality (I believe it should be regarded as such) that Newspoll lacks, namely the normal variability that random samples of around 1000 respondents should naturally produce. So the mid-January result with the undecided excluded showed a quite different result, with the Coalition leading 51.6-48.4.
Over the longer term, the pollster finds the two parties to be evenly matched, which suggests the series is a little more favourable to Labor than Newspoll, but not greatly so. For the results in detail, observe the pollster’s full report or my BludgerTrack poll aggregate facility, which is updated with the new data on both the poll tracker and poll data table.
The poll also tackles the question of an early election, which respondents were dubious about, with 58% agreeing it would “just be opportunism for the Prime Minister to call an early election” compared with 42% who favour the alternative that an election would be “good for Australia, because a lot has changed since the last election”. I’m not completely sure myself what was gained here by not just asking respondents straight up if they wanted an early election or not.
Also featured are results on COVID-19, which find the federal government continuing to score high marks for its response, with 67% rating it good (steady since late November) and poor by 14% (down one). The small sample results for the state governments are likewise consistently high, with changes since November landing within their wide margins of error. New South Wales is down five to 71%, Victoria is up one to 61% (it was mostly in the high forties from the onset of the outbreak in July through to an upswing in November) and Queensland is up six to 78%, while the particularly small samples for Western Australia and South Australia produce results of 80% in each case, respectively down three (this was conducted before Perth’s lockdown began on Monday) and up ten.
The poll also finds 44% would favour their state governments being in charge of vaccine rollouts compared with 38% for the federal government, and most express confidence the rollout will be conducted efficiently and safely.
You gotta admit, that stacks up as the World’s most depressing TV theme
Even from his own side there have been doubts expressed about Trump, plus it looks like a bit of, what comes around, goes around:
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/05/biden-trump-intelligence-briefings-466389
In American once a president always a president so Trump will always be called president Trump but when it comes to the intelligence briefings he hasn’t shown a willingness to treat them with any real respect so he wont start now and that is why he is being restricted. His actions since the election render him unacceptable.
sprocket_ @ #1191 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 12:50 pm
I reckon people would vote for Kevin in droves if given the chance…..
The Mooch on fire with Meidas Touch:
https://youtu.be/Go6PKXz2O6M
Interesting look at the voting machines in Georgia: Georgia’s election certification avoided an even worse nightmare that’s just waiting to happen next time
Trump dismayed intelligence officials on more than one occasion for compromising sources by way of big noting himself.
Trump was notorious for not reading his intelligence briefs.
Trump is almost certainly kompromat blackmail material.
mundo @ #1559 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 2:41 pm
I wonder which of the two is more desperate for relevance 🙁
It’s obvious that The Lincoln Project, now that they have more time on their hands, are able to produce more high quality videos:
https://youtu.be/0r2xzzHfw94
Trump and Intelligence shouldn’t be put in a sentence.
Biden – unifying the Nation by sticking it to Republicans one decision at a time.
Given recent events and threats by Republican senators and congresspersons to bring guns into the Capitol, a bulletproof version of these screens would seem appropriate.
mundo says:
Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 2:41 pm
How’d that go last time?
Worst ALP result since??
That $1.9T rescue package is going to win over quite a few down and out Trumpists I reckon. A unifying moment perhaps.
For those not in the know – the Lincoln Project looks to be imploding , the founder has been accused of on line grooming by 21 young men.
Obviously beside targeting trump many other things were going on…
Democrats should stop sticking it to republicans and embrace white supremacy
Haw-haw
Biden and Sanders and a few Trumpists unifying behind the rescue package is a great start to rebuilding a broken US society I reckon.
Democrats should stop sticking it to republicans and embrace climate denial
Haw-haw
Here’s something that Xi and Morrison have in common: a duty of care for the Horsefield’s Bushlark.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202102/06/WS601dd44ea31024ad0baa7a74.html
Republican Party looks like a total mess in latest polls
Pollapalooza released by FiveThirtyEight a weekly polling roundup, finds that eight well-known Republicans in Congress have poor favorability ratings.
FiveThirtyEight came up with a polling average for the eight Republicans by combining the results of new Morning Consult/Politico, YouGov/The Economist and SurveyMonkey/Axios polls.
The “controversial freshmen” had some of the lowest favorability ratings, including 15% for Greene, 12% for Boebert and 11% for Cawthorn. But the “Republicans who have broken with Trump” don’t fare much better. McConnell’s favorability, according to FiveThirtyEight, is 19%, while Cheney’s is 27%. And the favorability among the “better-known Trump allies” includes 19% for Hawley, 34% for Cruz and 23% for McCarthy.
Meanwhile, according to FiveThirtyEight, President Biden is more popular than any of the eight Republicans in Congress. Rakich notes, “According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 53.3% of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 35.6% disapprove.”
https://www.rawstory.com/republican-polls/
bc says:
Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 2:47 pm
Interesting look at the voting machines in Georgia: Georgia’s election certification avoided an even worse nightmare that’s just waiting to happen next time
Just more nonsense. The comment section is more interesting.
PNG says it has not seen proposal for Chinese-built city on island 50km from Australian territory
Government has not been presented with widely reported $39bn plan for Daru Island in Torres Strait
A Chinese-built multibillion-dollar city proposed for the tiny island of Daru in the Torres Strait is not being formally considered by the Papua New Guinea government, which says it has not seen the proposal.
The national planning minister, Rainbo Paita, told the Guardian that the government has not been presented with the proposal widely reported in the media, from the Hong Kong-based WYW Holding Company, to build a $39bn city on Daru Island, in PNG’s Western Province.
A letter written to the PNG government last April, and leaked to the media this week, proposes transforming part of Daru Island into a business, commercial and industrial zone, along with a neighbouring resort and residential area.
WYW Holding’s letter was sent to the government in April 2020. But in the 10 months since, it has not been brought to the attention of the prime minister, or formally submitted to the planning minister.
“If there is a letter, then we have not viewed it yet,” Paita told the Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/06/png-says-it-has-not-seen-proposal-for-chinese-built-city-on-island-50km-from-australian-territory
“According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 53.3% of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 35.6% disapprove.”
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 3:11 pm
For those not in the know – the Lincoln Project looks to be imploding , the founder has been accused of on line grooming by 21 young men.
Obviously beside targeting trump many other things were going on…
Their pod casts addressed that directly last week. It will come down to one thing, are people angry enough with the Q rubbish to continue finding such an entity. The republicans are definitely making it easy for them.
This transactional PM goes as far as locking up innocent Australian children in an offshore prison to politically profit – and voters write the cheque.
“ So the Commonwealth has power to say, for example, “no one disembarks from #RubyPrincess until we say so”, or no one may leave home unless they are wearing a mask.”
Quiet. But leaving decisions to State health bodies seems reasonable in most circumstances.
Leaving masks to the states and their medical advisors seems like a good idea. If not is the AFP going to enforce breaches of a Commonwealth order?
Shellbell
The issue is not so much quarantine orders but a public health response requiring significant numbers of clinical staff. Since the Repatriation Hospitals were disposed of in the early 90s, the Commonwealth has not had the clinical resources to make that sort of response. I think that only the State departments can manage this. I read some clown saying wtte of hand over the staff to the Commonwealth- obviously not a lot of experience with the public service.
I have payed for and downloaded at AS4777. Interesting you can now buy directly of standards Australia, think I’d be selling my SAI global shares if I had any.
It has minimum ROCOF and vector shift values. Nice, every one doing there own thing was bullshit.
There are ride through and reactive power standards. Nice.
How to handle cars and batteries. Nice.
Have to work out if you stay out of trouble if you follow the standard for synchronous machines. I think you do which is going to make protection design a lot easier.
Article was a little wrong, you have to provide provision for the connection of demand management.
In my view, a bloody good effort that will allow the industry to move forward.
Biden writes to Ardern with congratulations on Waitangi Day.
Frednk you can’t deny there were some nambla type activities going on with the Lincoln group. Sounds very Paedo IMO.
Hiding in plain sight.
“Demand Management” – Orwellian spin.
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 4:00 pm
Frednk you can’t deny there were some nambla type activities going on with the Lincoln group. Sounds very Paedo IMO.
Hiding in plain sight.
Given that the Q rubbish has people killing babies and drinking their blood in pizza shops I would have dismissed it as more rubbish if the Lincoln project had not addressed it.
What was the explanation frednk ?
One bad apple or systemic ?
Hasn’t the one female founder walked away ?
I still can’t believe that Albo said that he had seen no corruption. Is this the right person to wage war on the dishonesty of the Liberals? Every detail of this report made me feel sick at the betrayal of honest Australians.
https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2021/february/1612098000/nick-feik/scandals-he-walks-past
Cititzen
That tells a great deal about the difference between the Biden WH and Trump WH.
Lizzie
In Albo’s defense he was talking about corruption which goes behind what the crony rent seeking the Liberals go on with and i agree with Albo because for the most part there isn’t that much real corruption.
Sasse’s message to Nebraska GOP as he faces censure: ‘Politics isn’t about the weird worship of one dude’
Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska stood firm against leaders of his state’s Republican Party on Thursday after they advanced a censure resolution against him for decrying efforts to overturn the election results and then-President Donald Trump’s involvement in the US Capitol riot.
“Let’s be clear: The anger in this state party has never been about me violating principle or abandoning conservative policy — I’m one of the most conservative voters in the Senate — the anger’s always been simply about me not bending the knee to one guy,” Sasse said.
“You are welcome to censure me again, but let’s be clear about why this is happening: It’s because I still believe — as you used to — that politics isn’t about the weird worship of one dude,” Sasse said
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/04/politics/ben-sasse-nebraska-gop-censure/index.html
The Lincoln Project is not imploding. This is part of the complete story that the slimeball LvT is attempting to retail so as to besmirch the good name of The Lincoln Project:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/31/us/politics/john-weaver-lincoln-project-harassment.html
Frankly, I’d be more afraid of being alone in a room with LvT.
Mexicanbeemer
“Crony rent-seeking” doesn’t seem adequate to describe the actions of Morrison’s government. I’m really disheartened that we have sunk so low.
Jennifer Horn female co-founder of the Lincoln Project resigned over the scandal.
Often people resign when there is a cover up going on which they don’t condone but cannot stop.
Cut it whatever way u like – it’s got nambla style overtones.
Lizzie
Albo was talking more about his time in government.
Mexicanbeemer
That certainly makes a difference!
What does that prove GG? Could just be spin to discredit someone who was calling out the nambla activity ?
Those Lincoln Project video attacks on Trump were very effective I’d say.
https://insidestory.org.au/where-have-all-the-criminals-gone/
Rex Douglas @ #1601 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 4:34 pm
Maybe worth 5-10m votes for Biden-Harris …?
Lars,
Speculation fueled assertions with a dose of rancid hyperbole are about all you’ve got here.
Get back to us when you’ve got something a little more substantial.
Cheers.
Maggie Haberman@maggieNYT
Trump’s lawyer was supposed to be on Dobbs tonight. The show was canceled.
ETTD
lizzie @ #1590 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 4:10 pm
Well, Albo has committed Labor to establishing a federal corruption watchdog so that’s all that effectively matters I suppose.
The other obvious point to make is there just isn’t anyone within the Labor party room with the talent to rip into Morrison and his corrupt radicals.