Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 44, undecided 8

Another federal poll produces another respectable result for Labor, belying chatter about threats to Anthony Albanese’s leadership.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes one of the pollster’s quarterly dumps of its accumulated voting intention results, amounting to six new data points going back to early November. The latest of these, based on its most recent survey of 1092 respondents, is even more eye-catching than Newspoll in recording a Labor lead. The results bear the usual idiosyncrasies of Essential’s post-2019 election voting intention practices, in that the undecided are not excluded from the published figures on either primary vote and two-party preferred, and the latter is determined by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party and independent voters who indicate a preference and previous election flows for those who don’t.

Had the undecided been excluded, the latest results would have been Coalition 40.2%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 10.9% and One Nation 3.3%, with Labor leading 51.6-48.4 on two-party preferred. However, the other five sets of results published for November through to mid-January show that the pollster has a quality (I believe it should be regarded as such) that Newspoll lacks, namely the normal variability that random samples of around 1000 respondents should naturally produce. So the mid-January result with the undecided excluded showed a quite different result, with the Coalition leading 51.6-48.4.

Over the longer term, the pollster finds the two parties to be evenly matched, which suggests the series is a little more favourable to Labor than Newspoll, but not greatly so. For the results in detail, observe the pollster’s full report or my BludgerTrack poll aggregate facility, which is updated with the new data on both the poll tracker and poll data table.

The poll also tackles the question of an early election, which respondents were dubious about, with 58% agreeing it would “just be opportunism for the Prime Minister to call an early election” compared with 42% who favour the alternative that an election would be “good for Australia, because a lot has changed since the last election”. I’m not completely sure myself what was gained here by not just asking respondents straight up if they wanted an early election or not.

Also featured are results on COVID-19, which find the federal government continuing to score high marks for its response, with 67% rating it good (steady since late November) and poor by 14% (down one). The small sample results for the state governments are likewise consistently high, with changes since November landing within their wide margins of error. New South Wales is down five to 71%, Victoria is up one to 61% (it was mostly in the high forties from the onset of the outbreak in July through to an upswing in November) and Queensland is up six to 78%, while the particularly small samples for Western Australia and South Australia produce results of 80% in each case, respectively down three (this was conducted before Perth’s lockdown began on Monday) and up ten.

The poll also finds 44% would favour their state governments being in charge of vaccine rollouts compared with 38% for the federal government, and most express confidence the rollout will be conducted efficiently and safely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,763 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 44, undecided 8”

Comments Page 31 of 36
1 … 30 31 32 … 36

  3. Biden says Trump should no longer receive classified intelligence briefings

    President Joe Biden doesn’t believe former President Donald Trump should receive classified intelligence briefings, as is tradition for past presidents, citing Trump’s “erratic behavior unrelated to the insurrection.”

    When asked in an interview with “CBS Evening News” anchor Norah O’Donnell if he thought Trump should receive an intelligence briefing if he requested one, Biden said, “I think not.”

    What value is giving him an intelligence briefing? What impact does he have at all, other than the fact he might slip and say something?”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/05/politics/biden-trump-intelligence-briefing/index.html

  5. Fox Business cancels ‘Lou Dobbs Tonight’ after being sued for $2.7 billion: report

    After spending months pushing conspiracy theories about voter fraud, Lou Dobbs is reportedly out of a job.

    “Fox News has canceled “Lou Dobbs Tonight,” the program hosted by television’s staunchest supporter of Donald Trump and of his assertions of voter fraud in the 2020 election, The Times has learned. Dobbs’ program, which airs twice nightly at 5 and 7 p.m. Eastern on the Fox Business Network, will have its final airing Friday, according to a Fox News representative who confirmed the cancellation,” the Los Angeles Times reported Friday.

    . “The cancellation comes a day after voting software company Smartmatic filed a $2.7 billion defamation suit against Fox News and three of its hosts — Dobbs, Maria Bartiromo and Jeanine Pirro.

    https://www.rawstory.com/lou-dobbs/

  6. Kamala Harris cast the deciding vote for the stimulus package.
    That says all you need to know about the integrity of Mitt Romney!

    _____________________________________________

    Well yes. He is still a core republican of the old school. These are the people who believe in their hearts that a two trillion dollar hit to the Treasury is fine if it pays for tax cuts to the rich and is legislated by a Republican congress and president, but is terrible if it provides spending money to poor people who have no choice but to spend it and is legislated by a Democrat congress and President.

    The only split in the Republican Party – though a deep one – is between those who think Trump is an arsehole, despite what he delivered to the Repug agenda, and those who think that he is God.

  7. Been There
    If there’s an opposite to hypochondriac that’s me. (I still think I’m 18!) I’ve resisted the daily Allipurinol regime, so far. We’ll see. And I absolutely agree with you on getting in early to ward off an attack.

  8. Democrats indicate they don’t need Trump’s testimony to make case at impeachment trial

    Democrats believe there is ample evidence, from video and other sources, showing Trump’s clear intent to incite his supporters to storm the Capitol that led to the deadly January 6 riot — without his testimony.

    They plan to argue his refusal to testify underscores his guilt.

    It appears increasingly likely that the trial could wrap by the week of February 22, because Democrats are hoping to approve the Covid relief package by the end of the month.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/05/politics/senate-impeachment-trial-trump-witness/index.html

  9. Biden cites Trump’s ‘erratic behavior’ as reason to deny him intel briefings

    President Joe Biden sat down with Norah O’Donnell for his first network news interview.

    “Should former President Trump still receive intelligence briefings?” O’Donnell asked.

    “I think not,” Biden replied.

    “Why not?” she follow-ed up.

    “Because of his erratic behavior unrelated to the insurrection,” Biden explained. “What impact does he have at all, other than the fact he might slip and say something?”

    https://www.rawstory.com/trump-behavior/

  10. At first it seemed odd that you would deny in court what you had bragged doing, with accompanying photos.

    An Arkansas man who was photographed sitting with his feet on a desk in House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s office during last month’s riot at the US Capitol has pleaded not guilty to federal charges stemming from the breach.

    Richard Barnett was arraigned in federal court on seven counts arising from the January 6 riot, including entering and remaining in a restricted building with a dangerous weapon, theft of government property and disorderly conduct.

    The next hearing for Mr Barnett was set for March 4.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-06/richard-barnett-nancy-pelosi-chair-not-guilty-plea-capitol-riot/13128678

    But then I realised the impeachment trial might be over by then, so it frees him up from protecting his leader and depending on the impeachment verdict it might help him with a “following orders” mitigation defence. ???

  11. I do wonder if Scott Morrison will be found to have not acted in the interest of the nation at the behest of Trump. I am reflecting on the interactions the govt had with Mike Pompeo before the USA election.

  13. “ Democrats did not contest Ms. Ernst’s proposal, arguing that it was never their intention to increase the wage immediately, but their reticence to record a vote on the matter was a signal that the wage increase might ultimately lack the support to pass in an evenly split Senate, where at least one Democrat, Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, is on record in opposition.’”

    A few points:

    First of all, it is astonishing that the democrats actually have a senator from West Virginia – the deepest red state in the union. Equally however it is astonishing that such a dirt poor state like West Virginia is so deeply red: I mean, I get the power of coal and white identity politics, but republicans haven’t done anything to improve the lives of West Virginians since like … forever.

    So,on the one hand Joe Manchin needs to be cut some slack, given the background circumstances ups which he is elected – as a democrat – to the senate. Yet, given the dirt poor conditions of the very folk who actually voted for him, I am so surprised as his reluctance to vote for a $15 per hour minimum wage – surely that would be something he can take back to his voters and say ‘look, democrats can actually deliver for you’?

    It seems odd. Maybe Phoenix or someone else can explain it to me.

  15. Greene appeared in the House chamber earlier on Thursday to say that she no longer advocates QAnon. “I was allowed to believe things that weren’t true, and I would ask questions and talk about them….If it weren’t for the Facebook posts and the comments that I liked in 2018, I wouldn’t be standing here today and you couldn’t accuse me of anything wrong.”

    https://deadline.com/2021/02/marjorie-taylor-greene-removed-house-committee-assignments-1234687928/

    Two thoughts:
    * She claims it isn’t her fault. FB made her do it, and it’s just that the Democrats are doing this because they can.
    * How long before she starts believing those things again now that she doesn’t have to pretend she doesn’t?
    It will be interesting how she evolves over the next 18 months.

  16. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1505 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 12:21 pm

    “ Democrats did not contest Ms. Ernst’s proposal, arguing that it was never their intention to increase the wage immediately, but their reticence to record a vote on the matter was a signal that the wage increase might ultimately lack the support to pass in an evenly split Senate, where at least one Democrat, Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, is on record in opposition.’”

    A few points:

    First of all, it is astonishing that the democrats actually have a senator from West Virginia – the deepest red state in the union. Equally however it is astonishing that such a dirt poor state like West Virginia is so deeply red: I mean, I get the power of coal and white identity politics, but republicans haven’t done anything to improve the lives of West Virginians since like … forever.

    So,on the one hand Joe Manchin needs to be cut some slack, given the background circumstances ups which he is elected – as a democrat – to the senate. Yet, given the dirt poor conditions of the very folk who actually voted for him, I am so surprised as his reluctance to vote for a $15 per hour minimum wage – surely that would be something he can take back to his voters and say ‘look, democrats can actually deliver for you’?

    It seems odd. Maybe Phoenix or someone else can explain it to me.

    I presume Manchin wants a bit more pork on his plate …?

  17. Lars Von Trier @ #1473 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 10:32 am

    It’s adorable when you pout and resort to name calling sprockets !

    We are all awake to your unctuous simulated rapport, your smarmy fake sincerity, your studied spurious concern, your odious false empathy, your dissembled trumped-up compassion, your nauseating sham bonhomie, and your concocted pustular discharges. Your projection is vomitous.

    I cannot imagine how appalling it must be to go through life as a person whose every utterance is both untrue and vile. You have both my sympathy and contempt.

  18. Lol Yabbas coming crawling back after his last whupping from GG. huzzah !

    You picked a good time to come back I don’t think GGs been posting this morning.

  23. George Conway sends off canceled Lou Dobbs — with poetry

    George Conway@gtconway3d

    Ok here’s a limerick

    There once was a man named Lou
    Who said some things that weren’t true
    So the people he slimed
    Got some lawyers and primed
    A lawsuit that’ll make him turn blue

  24. Rex Douglas @ #957 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 12:32 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #1505 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 12:21 pm

    “ Democrats did not contest Ms. Ernst’s proposal, arguing that it was never their intention to increase the wage immediately, but their reticence to record a vote on the matter was a signal that the wage increase might ultimately lack the support to pass in an evenly split Senate, where at least one Democrat, Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, is on record in opposition.’”

    A few points:

    First of all, it is astonishing that the democrats actually have a senator from West Virginia – the deepest red state in the union. Equally however it is astonishing that such a dirt poor state like West Virginia is so deeply red: I mean, I get the power of coal and white identity politics, but republicans haven’t done anything to improve the lives of West Virginians since like … forever.

    So,on the one hand Joe Manchin needs to be cut some slack, given the background circumstances ups which he is elected – as a democrat – to the senate. Yet, given the dirt poor conditions of the very folk who actually voted for him, I am so surprised as his reluctance to vote for a $15 per hour minimum wage – surely that would be something he can take back to his voters and say ‘look, democrats can actually deliver for you’?

    It seems odd. Maybe Phoenix or someone else can explain it to me.

    I presume Manchin wants a bit more pork on his plate …?

    A few points:
    * Manchin needs the votes of Small Businesspeople as well as the dirt poor, to survive.
    * I think he may be amenable to a step wise increase in the Minimum Wage, say from the $7.50 it is now to $10 to $12 to $15. he could sell it more easily that way.
    * During the COVID-19 pandemic, when businesses are teetering on the edge, may not be the most opportune time to sell a doubling of wage costs. Maybe it may be more savvy to wait until the economy roars back to life (it will) and then ‘reward’ people for their effort.
    * The way I have outlined might help to get enough Republicans in the tent for a filibuster-proof majority and the ability therefore, to sell it as a bipartisan achievement.

  26. ‘zoomster says:
    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 11:00 am

    Further, on fire management —

    1. It’s fairly obvious that some landscapes rarely experienced fire in any form.

    Mountain ashes, for example, take well over a decade before regrowth produces seed, so if fires happened more frequently than (say) once every twenty years, the forests would not have survived. Yet we currently conduct fire reduction burns in these forests.

    Similarly, snow gums don’t regenerate well after fire, suggesting that they rarely encountered it pre colonisation. Again, there are calls for alpine areas to be included in fire reduction burns.

    2. Climate change has another significant implication – fire regimes which were once relevant to an area may not be relevant now. So knowledge of how an indigenous society used fire in an area a century ago might not be helpful now.’

    Yep.

    The $64 question with respect to Indigenous fire practices has to do with the degree to which they were framed to adaptation and innovation. In my direct experience the degree was low. The problem with doing it the same way for 10,000 years is when this year is different from all of those 10,000 years.

    Shortening the time span, the fire circumstances now are completely different from a couple of centuries ago. As a result of climate change the gap between 1788 and now is accelerating.

    I suspect that it is beginning to dawn on more and more people that there are no good solutions to fire management during an accelerating climate change. Apart from anything else, the insurance companies are on the case.

  27. zoomster – and boerwar agrees

    Climate change has another significant implication – fire regimes which were once relevant to an area may not be relevant now. So knowledge of how an indigenous society used fire in an area a century ago might not be helpful now.

    This is exactly my opinion, which I have hesitated to express because questioning the wisdom of Indigenous knowledge might lead to accusations of racism.

  28. Joe Biden has decided to not to allow any more Intel briefings (provided to every living President), due to his ‘erratic behaviour’. 😀

  30. While the industry moves forward we still have the National party trying to save coal fired power stations.

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/new-solar-inverter-standard-rushed-through-as-aemo-pushes-for-tighter-controls/

    If the article is right inverters must now have ride through capabilities and the are moving towards remote control so the aggregator can switch them off when required ( -ve whole-sale price)

    I don’t know for sure, but I suspect this put’s Australia’s standards ahead of the rest and it allows us to raises the % of the network supplied by inverters higher.

  31. Thank you Frednk.

    The updated standard will make it mandatory for all new inverters connecting to the National Electricity Market to have an undervoltage disturbance ride-through capability, which essentially ensures they can withstand network faults and not put grid reliability at risk through an uncontrolled shutdown.
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/new-solar-inverter-standard-rushed-through-as-aemo-pushes-for-tighter-controls/

    I’m struggling to understand “ride-through”, what is meant by “network faults”, and what exactly gets shut down in an uncontrolled way. Any decoding much appreciated. 🙂 I think it means the inverters will be more fault tolerant. That is they will keep working if “the network” burps, and that will allow the network to recover from occasional burps. ???

  32. Bongiorno

    As they returned to Canberra this week after the summer break, it was clear that Coalition MPs were itching for an election – they are confident of winning, while Labor members are more apprehensive.

    Morrison keeps talking about having “too much to do this year to think about an election” but he left his Liberal and National colleagues in no doubt that he is foxing. Addressing the party room, he reminded his troops that while an election “is not due until 2022”, they had to pull together to win every day between now and when they face the voters. But in almost the same breath, he said the agenda he had outlined at the National Press Club on Monday was about “winning the election this year”.
    …
    Morrison’s return to conservative orthodoxy with his “you can’t run the Australian economy on taxpayers’ money forever” may not be shared by the millions who will see their incomes shrink when JobKeeper ends, JobSeeker is cut and wages continue to stagnate.

    Morrison can’t risk voters’ anger swamping any gratitude for the pandemic being better handled here than elsewhere. It makes an October poll as the latest date with destiny all the more appealing.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2021/02/06/election-fever-grips-parliaments-return/161253000011047

  33. Nicholas says:
    Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 9:49 am

    Exactly what activities are parasitic? Which services provide no productive purpose?

    Since financial sector deregulation began in the 1980s and 1990s most of the “activity” in this sector is parasitic and serves no productive purpose.
    ———————————-
    Nicholas
    What a load of crap, put a name to those sectors.

    The fact you point to “off-balance sheet” items tells me you don’t really know what you are talking about because those items are simply transactions which represent a contingent liability so are not recorded.

    Your approach would restrict capital to businesses and individuals because you are ideologically motivated against capital.

  34. Joe Biden has decided to not allow any more Intel briefings to Trump, because whatever. This comes across as politically side-lining him. And it raises the question of the rationale for continuing to provide Intel briefings to Obama, Bush, and Clinton. Do they have insights that are fed back to Biden? Or is it just to keep the exes politically relevant as some weird honour? What about the ex-VPs?

  35. Late Riser,
    As I understand it, continuing to provide Intel briefings to past Presidents is a courtesy afforded to them but also because they may wish to provide feedback.

  36. lizzie,
    Morrison’s NPC address this week went down like a lead balloon. So if he thinks that will enable him to set sail to victory in an election to be held in October, then he has another think coming! 😀

  38. Late Riser @ #983 Saturday, February 6th, 2021 – 2:00 pm

    C@tmomma
    So just a middle finger from Biden. “Get out and stay out.”

    Not really. Without saying it because it is diplomatic not to, the real reason may well be that Trump is suspected of being a Russian asset, with a story emerging this week that he was groomed for 40 years by the Russians (and we still don’t know why he appeased Putin so obviously). So it is the strong suspicion of career operatives in the State Department that, given the information, Trump may consciously or inadvertently, pass that information on to the Russians, who also work hand in hand with the Chinese these days.

  41. President Joe Biden says Donald Trump should not receive intelligence briefings now that he’s no longer in office.

    The former president’s “erratic behavior, unrelated to the insurrection” disqualified him from receiving intelligence briefings, a courtesy typically extended to former presidents after they have left office, Biden told CBS News’ Norah O’Donnell in an interview excerpt that aired Friday.

    In the clip, Biden questioned why Trump would need to receive the briefings.

    “What value is giving him an intelligence briefing?” he said. “What impact does he have at all, other than the fact he might slip and say something?”

    Biden’s remarks in his first sit-down network interview as president — set to air in full before Sunday’s Super Bowl game — are his strongest to date on the topic. In a previous White House briefing, press secretary Jen Psaki said the decision to restrict Trump’s access to intelligence briefings was still under review and would be up to the discretion of intelligence officials.

    “You’ve called him an existential threat,” O’Donnell said in the interview. “You’ve called him dangerous. You’ve called him reckless.”

    “Yeah, I have. And I believe it,” the president responded.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/05/biden-trump-intelligence-briefings-466389

  43. C@tmomma beat me to a quote. Also this in The Guardian.

    “I’d rather not speculate out loud. I just think that there is no need for him to have the … intelligence briefings. What value is giving him an intelligence briefing? What impact does he have at all, other than the fact he might slip and say something?” Biden said.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/feb/05/trump-intelligence-briefings-erratic-behavior-joe-biden

    It’s what started me questioning the value obtained by giving Obama, Bush and Clinton the briefings. I can understand it’s a courtesy, but I wonder at the value. Obama hasn’t been President for 4 years, and the other two even longer.

  44. Apparently Trump is still refusing to concede defeat in the election and continues to refer to himself, and enforces compliance from those who also seek to refer to him, as the ’45th President of the United States’. No ‘Former President’ about it.

Comments Page 31 of 36
1 … 30 31 32 … 36

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *